2025-09-23 05:38

Wall Street's tech-fuelled rally breaks Treasury yields slide after Powell signals caution Nvidia, tech stocks, give back some of Monday's gains Gold hits a fresh high NEW YORK Sept 23 (Reuters) - Wall Street stock indexes broke a three-day string of artificial intelligence-fuelled records on Tuesday, and U.S. Treasury yields slid after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a cautious approach to the next U.S. interest rate decision. The central bank head offered few hints as to when the Fed might repeat last week's move to cut interest rates, and emphasised how delicate the balance is between balancing the threat of inflation with signs of weakness in the labor market. Sign up here. Tech stocks closed down after posting record closing highs in each of the last three sessions. Nvidia's (NVDA.O) , opens new tab shares fell 2.8% the day after the chipmaker shook up markets and reached its own record high stock price on plans to invest in OpenAI. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab led declines, falling 0.95%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 0.19%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 0.55%. The market is digesting the fact that the economy has shown resilience but data has been inconsistent "and is now dipping to more of a slowdown," said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors in New York. "With this being the third year of double-digit returns for the S&P 500, there needs to be another strong catalyst to move stocks materially higher. And right now, it is not clear what that catalyst can be," Pursche said. Shares in Amazon (AMZN.O) , opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab and Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab were also lower. MSCI's gauge of stocks in 49 countries (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 0.3%. Investors antennas had been up for signals from Powell on future rate cuts. After his speech on Tuesday, they fractionally shifted their expectations of a 25 basis point cut in October to 94% chance, from 89.8% on Monday. CME's Fedwatch tool now indicates a 5.9% chance of a pause. YIELDS DOWN, GOLD SOARS Treasury yields, which influence borrowing costs, declined. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 3.9 basis points to 4.106%, from 4.145% late on Monday. It had hit its highest level since September 5 during that session. The 2-year bond yield, which typically moves in step with expectations for rate moves from the Fed, fell 1.3 basis points to 3.588%, from 3.601% late on Monday. Gold basked in its safe-haven status to hit record highs, with the spot price last quoted up 0.47% to $3,763.82 an ounce. Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone, said investors were hedging their exposure to stocks by buying gold. Global equities have been supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts after it eased policy last week. "The markets are sanguine in this 'everything rally,' awaiting more evidence that further Fed easing will steer the economy away from any hard landings," BNY head of markets macro strategy Bob Savage said in a note. Markets have stayed dovish despite mixed messaging from the Fed itself. Before the chair's speech, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman largely dismissed inflation risks and said rates may need to come down faster to support the labor market. New Fed Governor Stephen Miran called for sharp rate cuts on Monday, while three colleagues urged caution on inflation. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was little changed at 97.24. Oil settled up more than $1 a barrel after a deal to resume exports from Iraq's Kurdistan stalled. This reduced some concerns about oversupply. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 05:19

Fed Chair Powell emphasizes balance between jobs and inflation Euro falls after rising for two straight sessions NZ dollar drops after appointment of new central bank chief Yen lower as traders assess candidates for Japanese PM NEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar gained against peers including the yen, Swiss franc and euro on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on further easing overnight. The dollar strengthened 0.54% to 0.795 against the Swiss franc , on track to snap two consecutive sessions of losses. Sign up here. The euro was lower against the dollar after German business morale fell unexpectedly in September. It was last down 0.69% at $1.1734 after rising for the last two sessions. Sterling declined 0.58% to $1.3443. It was steady against the euro , at 87.27 pence. INFLATION AND JOBS MARKET IN FOCUS "The dollar is a little firmer broadly against most of the G10 although it is still choppy and range-bound," said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street in Boston. "Based on our flows and holdings data, the dollar is still very underweight kind of within the real money community so I think it's due for a period of consolidation and that's ultimately what it's doing." Powell maintained a cautious tone on Tuesday, saying the Fed needed to continue balancing the competing risks of high inflation and a weakening job market in coming rate decisions. Markets are expecting quarter-point rate cuts at the remaining two Fed meetings this year and another in the first quarter of 2026, in line with the central bank's guidance after last week's meeting. This week's U.S. data will be in focus, particularly Friday's release of the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key input for shaping expectations on the Fed's next policy steps. "We are still data point-to-point with regard to the Fed, and that's going to be the catalyst for rates and the dollar in terms of determining how aggressive or hawkish the market starts to view the Fed," Loh added. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, added 0.65% at 97.87, attempting to claw back ground after two straight losing sessions. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak later in the day. "The market is adjusting after what has been quite a rally in these other currencies," said Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Hard Currency Fund in California. "So even with the absence of news, you would expect some sort of breather. . . Powell was more explicit in the uncertainty ahead and I had the feeling in the press conference that he was bending over backwards in arguing why he needs to cut rates even though inflationary pressures continue to persist. But he was a bit more open-ended now and so maybe that's a bit more hawkish." NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR Candidates for the next leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party answered journalists' questions on Wednesday. Frontrunner Sanae Takaichi, a fiscal and monetary dove, said monetary policy was up to the Bank of Japan but higher rates could affect mortgages and corporate investment. Against the yen, the dollar added 0.83% to 148.85 yen , hitting its highest in three weeks and set to snap three straight sessions of losses. New Zealand's dollar traded down 0.79% at $0.581 after Swedish central banker Anna Breman was named as the next Reserve Bank governor, becoming the first woman in the role. The Australian dollar weakened 0.29% versus the greenback to $0.658. Data showed that inflation climbed more than expected to 3% in August, less than a week before the Reserve Bank's next policy meeting. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-pauses-breath-with-fed-speakers-focus-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 05:17

MUMBAI, Sept 23 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee dropped to an all-time low on Tuesday, with pressure intensifying after the U.S. raised visa fees, worsening an already weak outlook for the currency. The rupee declined to a lifetime low of 88.62 to the U.S. dollar, surpassing the prior record of 88.4550 hit about two weeks ago. Sign up here. The currency's decline followed a significant increase in H-1B visa fees, which could slow the deployment of Indian workers to U.S. clients and potentially hit the profitability of India's IT sector. That, in turn, may weigh on equity flows, with foreign investors re-evaluating their stakes in IT firms. Additionally, lower deployment of workers to the U.S. could weigh on remittances, hurting dollar inflows into India. The timing of the visa fee hike compounds existing external pressures, with 50% U.S. tariffs on Indian goods - the highest among Asian peers - already expected to dent exports. "For the rupee, the pressures have increased in terms of tariffs kicking in at 50% and the recent visa news is incrementally negative for equity flows, especially into the IT sector," Dhiraj Nim, FX strategist at ANZ Bank, said. The Reserve Bank of India has room to let the rupee weaken at a measured pace, he said. With inflation expected at around 4–4.5% in fiscal year 2026-27, a modest decline would be manageable, he added. There are indications that the RBI is following this approach. The central bank has intervened in the market to support to the rupee without defending any specific level. Interventions are calibrated to ensure that the currency’s depreciation remains orderly, allowing the rupee to adjust without triggering market disruption, bankers said. On Tuesday, the central bank likely sold dollars via state-run banks near the 88.50 level to support the rupee before allowing it to slide further. The rupee has lagged its Asian peers year-to-date, failing to benefit from the dollar index’s recent decline. Heavy U.S. tariffs on Indian goods have dampened export prospects and curtailed foreign capital inflows, weighing on the currency. Foreign investors have taken out more than $15 billion from Indian equities in 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-rupee-slides-all-time-low-us-visa-hike-subdued-foreign-flows-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 04:41

Sept 23 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. A quieter session in Asia with Tokyo on holiday, but South Korea and Taiwan still managed to notch fresh all-time highs amid the love affair with all things AI. Sign up here. The latest tryst being Nvidia's (.NVDA) , opens new tab intent to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI with the first data centre gear to be delivered in the second half of 2026. Analysts' opinion seems rather mixed on this with bulls seeing it as OpenAI acknowledging there is no alternative to Nvidia GPUs, but others wondering why Nvidia is funding a customer to buy its equipment. There's a lot of interest in whether the flash PMIs for September out today will continue to show resilience in the face of U.S. tariffs. The Australian numbers were disappointing, but don't have a good correlation with growth there. The EU are seen holding above 50.0, albeit not by much, while the U.S. versions are seen pulling back a little but still in positive territory. The main event later will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell who gets to speak on the economic outlook and takes questions on policy - that's at 1235 EDT/1635 GMT. Markets remain doggedly dovish despite mixed messaging from the Fed itself. Speaking on Monday, new Fed Governor Stephen Miran, hand picked by President Trump, argued for big cuts, but three of his colleagues sounded cautious on inflation. Futures imply around a 90% chance of a further quarter-point rate cut in October, and a 75% probability of an easing in December as well. As an added wrinkle, the clock is also ticking to a possible U.S. government shutdown on September 30, with President Trump due to meet top Democratic leaders on Thursday. Investors have assumed some sort of an extension would get hashed out, but the deadlock in the Senate seems real this time. Which raises the risk of a shutdown that would be especially badly timed for markets and the Fed. As analysts at Nomura noted, when the government shuts so do its data releases. If the standoff was protracted, reports on payrolls, CPI, retail sales etc might go missing in action for the Fed's October 29 and December 10 meetings, leaving them flying blind on policy. Finally, Disney's decision to reinstate Jimmy Kimmel , opens new tab is an example of the power of consumer boycotts in an online world. Even a glance at social media sites will show how many people were cancelling their subscriptions, holidays, time shares, even their Disney weddings. Another headache for company boards. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: - Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook, appearances by Fed Vice Chair Bowman speaks and Fed Bank of Atlanta President Bostic - Riksbank monetary policy decision, media conference - Appearances by ECB Board Member Cipollone, Bank of England Chief Economist Pill, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem - Sept PMIs from Asia, Europe and US. US Treasury auctions $69bn of 2yr Notes https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 04:35

BANGKOK, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Thailand's central bank on Tuesday said it had improved its record keeping for its balance of payments, and said it had found some unexplained fund flows. The announcement came after concerns were raised that large net errors and omissions in the country's balance of payments could be a factor pushing up the baht to a four-year high against the U.S. dollar. Sign up here. The strengthening of the baht was driven by the weak dollar and a current account surplus, said Assistant Governor Chayawadee Chai-anant, adding that net errors and omissions were not too high. Net errors and omissions for 2024 were revised to $7.3 billion from $15.2 billion stated in March. The figures did not reflect illicit business activity, said Chayawadee. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-central-bank-says-has-improved-bop-record-keeping-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 04:13

JAKARTA, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Indonesia's parliament on Tuesday approved President Prabowo Subianto's proposed budget for 2026, which includes spending of 3,842.7 trillion rupiah ($231.5 billion) and forecasts the fiscal deficit at 2.68% of gross domestic product. The budget, which the parliament speaker put to a vote, assumes economic growth of 5.4%, up from the 2025 target of 5.2%, and has a revenue target of 3,153.6 trillion rupiah. Sign up here. In total, proposed spending for 2026 is 9% higher than estimated total spending for 2025, with the revenue target also up about 10% from the 2025 outlook. The budget deficit for 2026 would be lower than the forecast for this year at 2.78% of GDP, also below a limit of 3% set by law. Ahead of the vote, the chair of the budget committee, Said Abdullah, told parliament the budget would enable the government to begin a turnaround. "The 2026 state budget is an important asset for the government to begin turning things around, kickstarting industrial revival, and revitalising national industries that can support the provision of basic needs for the people, such as the textile, agriculture, and energy industries," he said. The budget includes an expansion of Prabowo's flagship programme of free meals for students and pregnant women, and increased defence spending. In August, when the budget proposal was first presented to parliament, the free meals scheme was costed at 335 trillion rupiah in 2026, nearly double the allocation for this year, and there was a 37% increase in defence spending to 335.3 trillion. ($1 = 16,600 rupiah) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-parliament-vote-governments-231-billion-2026-budget-2025-09-23/