2025-12-06 07:50
BENGALURU, Dec 3 (Reuters) - FX strategists largely stuck to forecasts for a weaker U.S. dollar over the coming year on Federal Reserve rate cut bets but a sizeable minority have now broken away from the consensus, predicting it would strengthen instead, a Reuters survey showed. The greenback, down roughly 9% for the year, is on track for its worst year since 2017 as tariff risks, labour market jitters, fiscal concerns and doubts over the central bank's independence have piled up. (.DXY) , opens new tab Sign up here. That backdrop has kept the "sell-dollar" trade firmly in place with positioning remaining net short since April, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Asked how that stance would shift by end-December, about 85% of forex strategists in a November 28 to December 3 Reuters poll, 44 of 52, expected little change or an increase in net-short positions. Only eight forecast a reversal to net longs. That was in line with interest-rate futures currently pricing a near-85% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction at the December 9-10 Fed meeting. Still, mounting divisions within the central bank - worsened by a recent government shutdown stalling key data releases - have left policymakers firmly split over whether more cuts are needed to support the job market or are too risky given persistently high inflation. Even so, survey medians showed the euro holding at around $1.17 in three months, strengthening around 2% to $1.19 in six and then to $1.20 in a year. "Our outlook is for the dollar to gradually weaken going into next year - we think the Fed will continue to lower interest rates. But the Fed will deliver more of a hawkish cut at the December meeting to reflect more dissent from FOMC members who are against it," said Lee Hardman, senior currency economist at MUFG. "We still think the dollar is overvalued but not as deeply as it was at the start of this year." DOLLAR 'PIVOT' Despite that broadly bearish outlook, views on the greenback diverged sharply. Just over half the strategists, 31 of 60, said the bigger risk to their end-2025 forecast was a weaker dollar. The remainder said stronger. That split was also visible in near-term forecasts. About 30% of respondents now expect the greenback to rise over the coming three months, the poll showed, compared with only 6% in November, suggesting the long-held conviction around the weakening trend may be cracking. "Over the next couple of months, we should start seeing a real pivot. We think things will be looking a lot better by the end of Q1, and that will create a platform for the dollar to rebound and euro/dollar to potentially head to $1.10 by late summer," said Dan Tobon, head of G10 FX at Citi. "There was a big story about people who were going to allocate away from the U.S., but that never really happened on the equity side. And while that rally continues, it can still be a positive dynamic for the dollar." Fueled by gains in technology stocks, especially AI-related companies, the S&P 500, already up more than 16% this year, was forecast to post another double-digit gain by end-2026, a separate Reuters survey found last week. (.SPX) , opens new tab Much of that, however, hinges on the nearly four rate cuts priced into futures by then - bets analysts say are too aggressive. "The market is too optimistic about future Fed rate cuts. There might be a bit of a bias towards pessimism in the market right now beyond what the data would justify," said Steve Englander, head of G10 FX strategy at Standard Chartered. (Other stories from the December foreign exchange poll) https://www.reuters.com/world/cracks-appear-entrenched-weak-dollar-outlook-2025-12-03/
2025-12-06 07:41
MADRID/BARCELONA, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The Catalonia regional government said on Friday it would investigate a research centre outside Barcelona after Spain's Agriculture Ministry said a recent swine fever outbreak could have been caused by a laboratory leak. Spain, the European Union's top pork producer, is trying to reassure trading partners after 13 wild boars tested positive for the virus in hills outside the city. The disease is harmless to humans but can be deadly for pigs and wild boars. Sign up here. Genome sequencing by a Madrid lab showed the strain was “very similar” to one first detected in Georgia in 2007 and now widely used in research and vaccine development, the ministry said. Other cases in Europe belong to a different genetic group. "The discovery of a virus similar to the one that circulated in Georgia therefore does not rule out the possibility that its origin may lie in a biological containment facility," the Agriculture Ministry said. Until now, Catalan officials suspected the virus had spread after a wild boar ate contaminated food, possibly a sandwich brought from abroad by a truck driver. "The report suggests that it is possible that the origin of the virus is not in animals or animal products from any of the countries where the infection is currently present," the ministry said. It did not name any laboratories in its statement. But Catalonia's top agriculture official, Oscar Ordeig, said the regional government would open an investigation of the state-funded Centre for Research in Animal Health (Cresa). The centre is located next to the Autonomous University of Barcelona and within the six-km (four-mile) confinement area imposed by authorities after the outbreak. Ordeig said other laboratories could also be investigated. The World Organization of Animal Health in 2017 designated Cresa as a research centre into swine fevers. The laboratory did not immediately respond to a request for comment but it told the news verification website Maldita.es it had found no evidence of being the source of the outbreak. The "Georgia 2007" strain of swine fever spread to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia and Belarus and reached eastern EU states in 2014, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. It reached China in 2018, causing huge losses. Chinese pig meat production dropped by 27% in 2019. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spain-investigating-whether-swine-fever-outbreak-was-caused-by-laboratory-leak-2025-12-05/
2025-12-06 07:24
Russia secured a dedicated fleet of tankers Russia still exporting a third of oil in Western ships Greece, Cyprus and Malta still provide large services Measure would mark near full ban on Russian oil at G7, EU level BRUSSELS/LONDON/OTTAWA, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The Group of Seven countries and the European Union are in talks to replace a price cap on Russian oil exports with a full maritime services ban in a bid to reduce the oil revenue that helps finance Russia's war in Ukraine, six sources familiar with the matter said. Russia exports over a third of its oil in Western tankers - mostly to India and China - with the use of Western shipping services. The ban would end that trade, which is mostly done through the fleets of EU maritime countries including Greece, Cyprus and Malta. Sign up here. The other two thirds of exported Russian oil goes out in a fleet of hundreds of tankers operating outside Western scrutiny and maritime standards, known as the dark or shadow fleet. Russia would need to expand that fleet if the G7 and the EU impose the maritime services ban. BAN COULD BE IN NEXT SANCTIONS PACKET The ban could be part of the EU's next package of sanctions against Russia, slated for early 2026, three out of the six sources told Reuters. The 27-nation EU would like to approve the ban together with a broader G7 agreement before proposing the ban in the package, two of the six sources said. The sources declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. British and American officials are pushing forward the idea in technical G7 meetings, the sources said. Any final U.S. decision would depend on the pressure tactics President Donald Trump's administration chooses amid ongoing peace talks it is brokering between Ukraine and Russia, four sources said. While the G7 and EU have almost fully cut imports of Russian oil since 2022, the new measure would mark the closest they have ever come to a total ban on dealing with Russian crude and fuel not only at the level of imports but also transportation and maritime services. The U.S. State Department, the White House, Cyprus’s shipping ministry, European Commission, Britain's foreign office and Canada's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Greek government officials were not immediately available for comment. The G7 imposed a price cap for Russian oil in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine to curb the Kremlin's income while allowing third countries to buy Russian oil using Western services - but only if buyers paid Russia less than the price cap. DODGING PRICE CAP To avoid the cap, Russia re-routed much of its oil to Asia on its own ships, many of which have since been sanctioned by the West. These vessels are old, their ownership is opaque, and they sail without Western insurance cover. The administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden argued that if Russia spent more money on tankers it would have less money for waging war in Ukraine. The Trump administration has been more sceptical about the price cap and declined to support Britain, the EU and Canada when they agreed to lower the cap on crude from $60 per barrel to $47.6 per barrel in September 2025. Russia exported 44% of its oil in sanctioned shadow-fleet tankers in October, according to analysis from the Finland-based independent Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Some 18% of oil sailed in non-sanctioned shadow fleet tankers while tankers with links to G7 countries, the EU and Australia transported 38% of Russian oil. The overall fleet working with sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela encompasses 1,423 tankers, of which 921 are subject to U.S., UK or EU sanctions, according to maritime data specialist Lloyd’s List Intelligence. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-g7-weigh-ban-maritime-services-russian-oil-exports-end-price-cap-2025-12-05/
2025-12-06 07:20
STOXX hits a weekly advance, led by the index of automakers Germany's Merz secures pensions bill Swiss Re tumbles after downbeat forecast Big Yellow slips after Blackstone takeover talks collapse GS starts GTT at 'neutral' on below-consensus near-term outlook Dec 5 (Reuters) - European shares were little changed on Friday and ended the week with modest gains, while investors evaluated a long-delayed U.S. inflation report that reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) , opens new tab was flat at 578.87 points at the close, after three straight days of gains. For the week, the index was up 0.4%, building on the previous week's rally. Sign up here. Meanwhile, German stocks rallied (.GDAXI) , opens new tab 0.7% on Friday after Chancellor Friedrich Merz narrowly averted a government crisis by securing an absolute majority for a pensions bill in parliament. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, increased 0.3% in September, in line with analyst expectations. The data maintained expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with the odds standing at 87.2%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. "Markets got a lift today after slightly weaker-than-expected core PCE data, which reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut rates next week. Given the Fed’s role as the central bank of the world’s largest economy, such a move would have significant implications for global risk sentiment,” Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index said. Recent data and dovish remarks from some Fed policymakers have strengthened expectations for a rate cut next week. AUTOS, RETAIL AND TECHNOLOGY STOCKS RISE In STOXX 600, Europe's autos and parts (.SXAP) , opens new tab was the top-performing sector for the week, up 5.6%, primarily driven by the U.S. administration's proposal to reverse rules on fuel economy standards finalised by the Biden government. On Friday, it was up 1.5%, outpacing its peers. The broader retail sub-index (.SXRP) , opens new tab also jumped 5% week-to-date, boosted by upbeat November sales by Zara-owner Inditex (ITX.MC) , opens new tab - a bellwether for global fast fashion - that offered an early read on how retailers fared during the crucial discounting season. Technology stocks (.SX8P) , opens new tab added 2.7% this week while Basic Resources (.SXPP) , opens new tab surged 3.2% due to strength in metal prices. Copper jumped to a record high on Friday. Citigroup set a 2026 target of 640 for the benchmark STOXX 600 index and upgraded the auto, industrials, chemicals, and basic resources sectors, citing fiscal tailwinds in 2026. On the flipside, Swiss Re (SRENH.S) , opens new tab dropped 6.5% to the bottom of the main index, after the reinsurer announced its targets for 2026, below analysts' expectations. The broader insurance index (.SXIP) , opens new tab was down 0.66%. Oil and gas index (.SXEP) , opens new tab lagged its peers, down 1% on Friday. LNG tech provider GTT (GTT.PA) , opens new tab slipped 2.7% after Goldman Sachs said the company's near-term earnings outlook was below consensus, starting with a "neutral" rating. Big Yellow Group (BYG.L) , opens new tab dropped 4.3% after terminating talks of a potential deal with Blackstone (BX.N) , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/european-shares-steady-after-three-day-rally-focus-us-inflation-2025-12-05/
2025-12-06 07:17
MOSCOW, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Ukrainian drones targeted Russia's Ryazan and Voronezh regions overnight, causing damage but no casualties, local governors said on Saturday. The attack sparked a fire on the roof of a multi-storey residential building, and debris from drones fell into the grounds of "an industrial facility," Ryazan governor Pavel Malkov said. Sign up here. Malkov did not name the facility. Ukraine has previously repeatedly targeted a local refinery. Ukraine has ramped up drone attacks deep inside Russia, aiming to knock out oil refineries, depots and pipelines. Ukrainian drones have struck at least 17 major refineries this year. In the Voronezh region, governor Alexander Gusev said a drone strike damaged a fuel station, a school and several residential buildings. Russia's Defence Ministry said its air defences shot down 116 Ukrainian drones overnight. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-drones-hit-russias-ryazan-voronezh-regions-governors-say-2025-12-06/
2025-12-06 06:51
IndiGo faces biggest crisis in its 20-year history Hundreds of passengers stranded for fifth day Pilot unions oppose India exempting IndiGo from pilot safety norms MUMBAI/BENGALURU, Dec 6 (Reuters) - India's aviation watchdog on Saturday warned airline IndiGo of regulatory action after it cancelled thousands of flights over the last week, stranding passengers and forcing government action to limit a surge in airfares caused by the crisis. The country's biggest airline, IndiGo cancelled the flights because of a shortage of pilots after it failed to plan adequately for new rules limiting how many hours they work. Sign up here. The civil aviation watchdog sent the notice to IndiGo CEO Pieter Elbers, giving him 24 hours to respond and say why regulatory action - which can include penalties and suspension of officials - should not be taken against the airline. As the CEO "you have failed in your duty to ensure timely arrangements for conduct of reliable operations," said the notice, signed by Directorate General of Civil Aviation official, Ravinder Singh Jamwal. The notice is confidential but was reviewed by Reuters. IndiGo did not respond to a request for comment on the warning. Earlier in the day, India capped airfares, which have been driven higher by the increase in demand for flights operated by other carriers. IndiGo cancelled another 385 flights on Saturday, the fifth day of the crisis. The government on Friday announced exemptions from the new rules for the carrier and laid on additional trains to help clear the backlog. Delhi airport posted on X on Saturday that flight operations were steadily resuming. Cancellations however continued at many airports. The Civil Aviation Ministry said it would "continue to closely monitor fare levels through real-time data and active coordination with airlines". Fares were last capped during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The Indian government said a one-way fare for a journey up to 500 kilometers cannot be more than 7,500 rupees ($83), whereas for journeys between 1,000 and 1,500 km - such as the New Delhi-Mumbai route - should be capped at 15,000 rupees ($167). That was well under the 20,419 rupee ($227) price advertised by Air India on its website for a Delhi-Mumbai flight on Saturday. BIGGEST CRISIS IN INDIGO'S TWO-DECADE HISTORY The flight cancellations are the biggest crisis in IndiGo's 20 years of operation. The airline has a more than 60% market share in the world's most-populous country and has prided itself on on-time performance and affordable fares. IndiGo (INGL.NS) , opens new tab has said it failed to plan adequately for the November 1 deadline to implement the stricter rules on night flying and weekly rest for pilots. It only suffered a roster crisis this week as December is the peak time for holidays and weddings in India. On Friday, more than 1,000 IndiGo flights were cancelled. After the government announced the exemptions to the rules for IndiGo, the airline said it could return to normal operations between December 10 and 15. On Saturday, IndiGo cancelled 124 flights in Bengaluru, 109 in Mumbai, 86 in New Delhi and 66 in Hyderabad, airport sources told Reuters. Hundreds of passengers gathered outside Bengaluru and Mumbai airports on Saturday, some unaware of the cancellations, according to Reuters witnesses. Satish Konde had to catch a connecting flight from Mumbai to the western city of Nagpur and had checked in before being told it was cancelled. "I am waiting for my luggage to be returned," he said. PILOTS CRITICISE THE EXEMPTION, SAYING SAFETY COMES FIRST The new pilot rest and duty rules capped the number of night landings to two from six and restricted the maximum number of hours a pilot can fly in the night to 10 hours. For now, IndiGo has been exempted from both measures until February 10. The new rules also said that if a pilot takes personal leave, that cannot be counted in calculating his weekly rest period of 48 hours. That restriction too has been put on hold for all airlines, given the IndiGo crisis. That has upset pilot labour groups, who told the government that safety must not be compromised to make up for IndiGo's poor planning, the head of the Federation of Indian Pilots, C.S. Randhawa, told Reuters. The Airline Pilots Association of India objected on Friday, calling the relief for IndiGo "selective dispensation". The norms "exist solely to safeguard human life," the association said in a letter to the government. Other major Indian airlines, including Air India and Akasa, have not had to cancel flights due to the new rules. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/india-air-travel-chaos-eases-indigo-crisis-still-leaves-hundreds-stranded-2025-12-06/
