2025-09-18 21:41

Japan and UK lead surge in US Treasury holdings China reduces US Treasury holdings to lowest since 2008 US sees $58.2 billion in Treasuries inflow in July NEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries rose to an all-time peak in July, data from the Treasury Department showed on Thursday, hitting record highs for a third straight month, led by gains in holdings from Japan and the United Kingdom. Holdings of U.S. Treasuries surged to $9.159 trillion in July, up from $9.126 trillion the previous month. Compared with a year earlier, Treasuries owned by foreigners were up nearly 9%. Sign up here. China's holdings of Treasuries, on the other hand, dropped to $730.7 billion, its lowest since December 2008 when the world's second-largest economy held $727.4 billion. The country's reduction of its U.S. Treasury holdings has been a gradual process over the past decade, driven by both strategic and market factors. Strategically, China has been seeking to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in reserves, trade settlement and investment. At the same time, China has been gradually unloading Treasuries to bolster its currency, the yuan. Analysts said a slowing Chinese economy, post-COVID challenges, and trade barriers have diminished China's inflows from exports. Japan remained the largest non-U.S. holder of Treasuries with $1.151 trillion, its biggest holdings since March 2024. UK investors, the second-largest owner of U.S. government debt, increased their holdings of Treasuries to another record just under $900 billion, up roughly 5% from the $858 billion in June. On a transaction basis, the U.S. recovered from Treasury debt outflows in June to post $58.2 billion in foreign inflows in July. In May, there were foreign inflows of $147.4 billion in Treasuries, the largest since August 2022. Foreign investors sold U.S. equities in July to the tune of $16.3 billion. That followed massive equity inflows of $163.1 billion in June. Data also showed that the net capital inflow into the United States totaled just $2.1 billion in July, down from a revised inflow of $92 billion in June. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/foreign-holdings-us-treasuries-surge-all-time-high-july-chinas-sink-2025-09-18/

2025-09-18 21:40

PANAMA CITY, Sept 18 (Reuters) - The Panama Canal has begun a competitive process to select the company that will design, build and operate a pipeline to transport liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), its authority said on Thursday, following meetings with interested companies. The project, expected to require an investment of between $4 billion and $8 billion, is part of the waterway's move to meet increased demand for services including trans-shipment and generate extra revenue, following the expansion of its area in a Supreme Court ruling last year. Sign up here. The 2 million-barrel-per-day pipeline alone is forecast to contribute between $1 billion and $1.2 billion to the waterway's annual income, Ricaurte Vasquez, head of the canal, told Reuters in an interview after the meetings. The pipeline project aims to move U.S. LPG bound for Asia from one side of the canal to the other. A power transmission line will be built as part of the plan. Among companies that met with canal authorities about the pipeline were Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab, Phillips 66 (PSX.N) , opens new tab, Shell (SHEL.L) , opens new tab, Energy Transfer (ET.N) , opens new tab, Puma Energy, SK Energy, Vitol, Mitsubishi (8058.T) , opens new tab, Itochu (8001.T) , opens new tab and Sumitomo (8053.T) , opens new tab, the canal said in a release. "We had a room full of interested people," Vasquez said about the meeting, adding that a pre-qualification process will be the next step. The winner of the competitive process is expected to be selected in the last quarter of 2026, while a parallel project to build and operate two new ports in the canal's area will be launched between late this year and early next year, he said. The canal forecasts a $3.5 billion profit in the fiscal year ending in September, in line with the previous year's results , opens new tab, Vasquez said. A consolidation of cargo tonnage by receiving larger vessels is expected to offset a reduction in traffic towards the end of the year. "We have had a different seasonality this year, with more cargo being moved to the United States now, instead of in October-December," he said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/panama-canal-starts-process-select-firms-build-operate-lpg-pipeline-2025-09-18/

2025-09-18 21:02

ORLANDO, Florida, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Sign up here. Wall Street and world stocks roared to new highs on Thursday, boosted by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut the day before and a 23% surge in Intel , opens new tab shares, while the dollar and Treasury yields went against the easier monetary policy shift and rose too. More on that below. In my column today I look at how the Fed's statement, policymakers' revised forecasts and Powell's guidance highlighted several inconsistencies. Given the unusual degree of economic uncertainty right now, this is perhaps not surprising. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves Today's Talking Points: * Getting the Intel First the world's most powerful government invests in you, then the world's biggest company. Nvidia is investing $5 billion in Intel, taking a roughly 4% stake, just weeks after the White House engineered an extraordinary deal for the federal government to take a 10% stake in the struggling U.S. chipmaker. It's a remarkable turnaround in the fortunes of the company and CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who U.S. President Donald Trump insisted should resign earlier this year. It also stirs debate over issues such as Trump's corporate interventions, national security, U.S.-China rivalry, and tech's place in all of the above. * Reading cenbank tea leaves This week has been a central bank bonanza, topped by the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in nine months and signal of more to come. The Fed's messaging may have been a little incoherent, but economic uncertainty has rarely been higher. Opinion over the Bank of England's next steps is also divided, but there is less ambiguity around some others - Brazil , opens new tab's central bank delivered a "hawkish" hold, and more rate cuts from Canada are on the cards. All eyes now turn to Japan. * Trump-Xi call Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping speak to each other on Friday, with trade and tech issues front and center of discussions. There has been a fair degree of posturing, signaling and even agreement this week ahead of the call. A deal on TikTok is close, China's Huawei has broken years of silence and outlined its chip and computing power plans, Beijing has ordered tech firms not to buy Nvidia's AI chips and cancel existing orders, but is also ending an antitrust probe into Google. Heightened uncertainties feed Fed inconsistencies The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday for the first time in nine months, arguing the move is necessary to counter increasing risks to the labor market. The rationale is sound enough. There's only one problem - it seems to clash with many of the U.S. central bank's revised economic projections. In his press conference following a two-day policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that employment risks have risen substantially in recent months and now outweigh inflation risks. However, policymakers lowered their median 2026 and 2027 unemployment rate projections by a tenth of a percentage point to 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively, from three months ago. How does that add up? The revised "dot plot" chart of rate projections also showed that Fed officials now expect three quarter-percentage-point cuts this year, up from the two projected in June. But at the same time, officials lifted their median GDP growth projections for this year and next, while also raising next year's inflation outlook. So, to recap, the Fed is cutting rates and expects to front-load that easing, due to what Powell says are "meaningful" downside risks to the labor market. Yet officials are also penciling in lower unemployment rates than they were three months ago and higher growth and inflation rates. It's a confusing picture. 'MEETING-BY-MEETING SITUATION' But this confusion may be the biggest takeaway. Visibility surrounding the U.S. growth, inflation and employment outlooks is incredibly low, as Powell acknowledged, and the range of policymakers' forecasts has widened. "From the dot plot to the economic forecasts, there are multiple inconsistencies that raise eyebrows," notes Ron Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard. "The key message ... is that there is not a shared outlook among the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) participants." These inconsistencies may have been exacerbated by the addition of Stephen Miran, the head of President Donald Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, to the Fed's Board of Governors. His was the lone dissenting voice, calling for a 50-basis-point cut, and he also appears to have tipped the scale in favor of projections of more short-term easing. At the same time, few officials – perhaps with the exception of Miran – seem to hold these views with any real conviction. "We're in a meeting-by-meeting situation," Powell told reporters, an indication that guidance offered by the dot plot is pretty loose. So it's unclear how committed the Fed even is to this new policy shift out of restrictive territory into a more neutral place. (IN)VISIBILITY To be fair to Powell and his colleagues, it is increasingly difficult to interpret the incoming data. The economic models and playbooks of yesteryear often no longer seem relevant to today's economy, as has been proven time and again this year. Just look at the unemployment rate. Labor market supply and demand are in broad balance, which is why the unemployment rate remains so low at 4.3%. But that's only because the alarming slump in hiring has been offset by the Trump administration's immigration policies and deportations, which are crushing labor supply. The "breakeven" rate of monthly payrolls growth needed to keep the unemployment rate steady is perhaps around 50,000 now, or even lower, down from around 150,000 earlier this year. The economy only added 22,000 jobs in August. So it's a "curious balance", according to Powell. And perhaps a dangerously unstable one. If companies' low hiring turns to outright firing, the unemployment rate could shoot higher, even if labor supply remains tight. Visibility on the inflation side isn't much better. Policymakers' assessment that import tariffs will deliver a one-off price hit with no lasting inflationary effects is based more on hope than expectation. U.S. tariffs are the highest in a century, so this is new territory for policymakers today, and uncertainty surrounding the effect on consumer prices remains substantial. As a result, there is little clarity on either side of the Fed's mandate. The central bank is nevertheless choosing to put aside inflation fears and focus more on the upside risks to unemployment. Is there justification for this approach? Certainly. But is it the right move? Who knows. "Tensions within the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment are at the heart of several inconsistencies inside the Fed's rate, growth, inflation and unemployment forecasts," says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. As Powell himself said, this is a "particularly challenging time" for the Fed, as "there are no risk-free paths now" for policymakers. The same can be said for investors. What could move markets tomorrow? Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2025-09-18/

2025-09-18 20:49

Shipping companies express concerns over UN emissions deal US opposes deal, threatens tariffs and restrictions IMO confident in deal adoption despite some opposition LONDON/ATHENS, Sept 18 (Reuters) - A group of top shipping companies including leading Greek players said on Thursday they want changes to a United Nations deal tabled for adoption in October that seeks to cut marine fuel emissions, adding complications to the draft accord after U.S. opposition. Global shipping accounts for nearly 3% of the world's carbon emissions, and the proposed deal is crucial to speed up decarbonisation through a bigger regulatory framework. Sign up here. The group - including some of the world's biggest oil tanker companies such as Cyprus-based Frontline and Saudi Arabia's Bahri - said they had "grave concerns" about the so-called Net-Zero Framework proposed for adoption next month at the U.N.'s International Maritime Organization environmental committee. "As it stands, we do not believe the IMO NZF will serve effectively in support of decarbonising the maritime industry ... nor ensure a level-playing field as intended," the companies told Reuters in a joint statement on Thursday. "We believe that critical amendments to the IMO NZF are needed, including the consideration of realistic trajectories ... before adoption can be considered." In April, countries struck a draft agreement that would impose a fee on ships that breach global carbon emissions standards. The United States has told countries to reject the deal or face tariffs, visa restrictions and port levies, sources told Reuters in September. The joint statement said it was essential that any accord avoided "excessive financial burdens and inflationary pressure to the end-consumer". IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said he was confident the deal would be adopted next month. "I base that on the track record of the organization, on the co-operation that we all have, the understanding that we still have some challenges and some concerns particularly to address," he told a Capital Link shipping conference in London on Tuesday. Greek Shipping Minister Vassilis Kikilias told Dominguez during London International Shipping Week earlier this week that improvements were required. "The minister underlined that he shares the shipping industry's concerns," the shipping ministry said in a statement. Sources have told Reuters that it was unclear whether the deal could go through if opposition increased or if there were abstentions by IMO member countries. About 90% of the world's trade is conducted by sea, and emissions are set to soar without an agreed mechanism. The statement was also co-signed by Capital Group, TMS Group, Centrofin, Marine Trust, Trust Bulkers, Common Progress, Dynacom, Dynagas, Emarat Maritime, Gaslog, Hanwha Shipping, Angelicoussis Group, Seapeak and Stolt Tankers. (This story has been corrected to say that the co-signatory in the joint statement is Stolt Tankers, not Stolt-Nielsen, paragraph 15) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/top-shipping-players-want-overhaul-un-ship-fuel-emissions-deal-2025-09-18/

2025-09-18 20:32

BARRANQUILLA, Colombia, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Colombian state-run energy company Ecopetrol is set to exceed its 2025 goal of drilling 10 oil wells by between 20% and 40%, the company's vice president for hydrocarbons, Rafael Guzman, said on Thursday. The company drilled six wells in the first half of the year, two of which were successful, it has said. Sign up here. "I think we will do more than the planned 10, I think it could be 20% to 40% more than that figure," Guzman told Reuters on the sidelines of the Acipet energy conference in the Caribbean city of Barranquilla. Ecopetrol's daily production is slightly above the upper end of the company's 2025 target of 750,000 barrels per day, at 751,000 bpd. "It's going really well to meet our goal, which is between 740,000 barrels and 750,000 barrels," Guzman said. "We've had some difficulties in the area that have limited production, but we have mostly overcome and shown the potential." Ecopetrol also hopes to find, within the next 18 months, partners to operate five oil fields, Guzman added, explaining the company has been allowing in partners with capital for investment under production-sharing deals. Those agreements - like one signed with Canada's Parex Resources last year that will bring $268 million in investment - help increase output and reserves without upfront investment by Ecopetrol, he said. "We have had multiple offers, there is interest in companies with these schemes. It's a way to rehabilitate and re-develop some fields that we have," Guzman said. One such joint venture, the Sirius project with Brazilian state-run oil firm Petrobras (PETR3.SA) , opens new tab in Colombia's Caribbean waters, now will require 120 authorizations from communities in the area, up from 116, a source at Ecopetrol told Reuters. The area holds an estimated 6 billion cubic feet of gas and investment could reach some $5 billion. It is expected to come online between 2029 and 2030, though longer consultations could hamper the process. Ecopetrol hopes to replace 100% of oil reserves this year, Guzman added, meaning that for every barrel produced, Ecopetrol adds a barrel to its reserves. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ecopetrol-beat-2025-drilling-goal-may-best-output-target-executive-says-2025-09-18/

2025-09-18 20:25

S&P up 0.48%, Nasdaq up 0.94%, Dow up 0.27% Intel jumps as Nvidia takes $5 bln stake in co Small-cap Russell 2000 index rises Sept 18 (Reuters) - (This Sept 18 story has been corrected to fix the date of the previous Russell 2000 closing high in paragraph 5) Wall Street's main indexes posted record-high closes on Thursday, a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a quarter-point interest rate cut, while chipmaker Intel rose after Nvidia decided to build a stake in the company. Sign up here. Intel (INTC.O) , opens new tab clinched its biggest daily gain since October 1987, jumping 22.8% after Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab said it would invest $5 billion in the struggling U.S. chipmaker. Peer Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) , opens new tab slipped 0.8%. Nvidia rose 3.5%, recovering losses from Wednesday when a report said Chinese tech firms might stop buying its chips. The moves boosted a broader semiconductor (.SOX) , opens new tab index up 3.6%, and also lifted the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 technology sector (.SPLRCT) , opens new tab up 1.36%. Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors gained. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 index (.RUT) , opens new tab notched its first record high close since November 2021, closing at 2,467.70 points. Small-cap companies are likely to perform better in a low interest-rate environment. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the softening jobs market was a priority and indicated more reductions could follow at upcoming policy meetings. "We are looking for support for economic growth and justification of stretched valuations and the prospect of lower interest rates helps that," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 124.10 points, or 0.27%, to 46,142.42, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 31.61 points, or 0.48%, to 6,631.96 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab gained 209.40 points, or 0.94%, to 22,470.73. The biggest S&P sector decliners were consumer staples (.SPLRCS) , opens new tab and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) , opens new tab stocks. New data showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, but the labor market has softened as both demand for and supply of workers have diminished. The rate cut is expected to add to Wall Street's recent rally, boosted by monetary policy easing hopes and a revival of AI-linked stock trading. Investors are pricing in about 44.2 basis points in cuts by end-2025, data compiled by LSEG showed. Among stocks, CrowdStrike (CRWD.O) , opens new tab gained 12.8% after at least nine brokerages raised their price target on the stock. Shares of Darden Restaurants (DRI.N) , opens new tab fell 7.7% after the Olive Garden parent reported weak quarterly results. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.87-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, and by a 2.5-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted 31 new 52-week highs and eight new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 156 new highs and 42 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 19.30 billion shares, compared with the 16.67 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-nasdaq-futures-hit-record-highs-after-fed-cuts-rates-intel-soars-2025-09-18/