2025-09-18 10:59

Oil and gas fund a quarter of Russia's budget Russian economy slowing, deficit rising Putin faces tough 2026 budget planning amid record military spending Revenue up 17% from August due to lower refinery subsidies MOSCOW, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Russia's state oil and gas sales in September are set to fall by around 23% from a year earlier on lower prices and a stronger rouble, Reuters calculations show, hitting Moscow's biggest source of revenue. The projected decline comes as President Vladimir Putin and his economic officials are preparing Russia's 2026 budget while funding its highest military spending since the Cold War. Sign up here. Russia will receive 592 billion roubles ($7.11 billion) in September, according to Reuters calculations based on oil and gas production data, refining, and supplies on domestic and international markets. Its revenue for the first nine months is set to fall by 20.5% to 6.62 trillion roubles, the calculations show. Month on month, September's oil and gas revenue is set to rise by 17%, according to Reuters estimates, helped by lower government subsidies owed to refineries. Oil and gas revenue accounts for up to a quarter of Russia's budget and is the most important source of cash for Moscow's war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year. The finance ministry is due to present a draft 2026 budget to parliament by the end of September. After defying expectations of a recession in 2023 and 2024, Russia's economy is slowing and its federal budget deficit is rising. Russia has raised personal income and corporate taxes this year, but the government in May still had to triple its federal budget deficit estimate to 1.7% of gross domestic product. This year's official growth forecasts have been slashed and some key bankers and officials have warned that the economy is heading towards stagnation or recession. The finance ministry is scheduled to publish its September estimates of oil and gas revenue on October 3. Oil and gas revenue totalled 11.13 trillion roubles last year. The ministry initially forecast a 2025 total of 10.94 trillion - or some 5% of gross domestic product - but has lowered that to 8.32 trillion roubles. The finance ministry on Thursday announced a budget change to go into effect next year aimed at shielding the budget from oil price fluctuations and Western sanctions. ($1 = 83.2500 roubles) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-september-oil-gas-budget-revenue-seen-falling-23-2025-09-18/

2025-09-18 10:47

MOSCOW, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in August were up 8.9% from July at 9.44 million metric tons on rising fuel production, as several refineries completed planned maintenance, data from industry sources and Reuters calculations showed. Total oil product exports in August via the Baltic ports of Primorsk, Vysotsk, St Petersburg and Ust-Luga rose by 12.3% month-on-month to 5.326 million tons, data from market sources showed. Sign up here. Fuel exports via Russia's Black Sea and Azov Sea ports last month increased 3.6% from July to 3.392 million tons. Oil product exports from Russia's Arctic ports of Murmansk and Arkhangelsk fell 22.6% in August on a monthly basis to 30,700 tons from 39,700 tons. Fuel export loadings at Russia's Far East ports rose 13.5% month-on-month in August to 693,500 tons as local refineries completed seasonal maintenance, data from sources and Reuters calculations showed. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-august-seaborne-oil-product-exports-up-89-vs-july-reuters-calculations-2025-09-18/

2025-09-18 10:44

LONDON, Sept 18 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. U.S. markets stumbled on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve delivered its expected first interest rate cut of the year, but stock futures roared back ahead of Thursday's bell as further cautious easing was signaled by the central bank. The dollar and Treasuries flipped back and forth on the decision, with the greenback plunging to a multi-year low before rebounding sharply as Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed a risk-management approach to further cuts. Even though the median of Fed policymaker projections is now two more cuts this year and another next, the split of views showed a third of them wanted no more easing in 2025 and almost half just expect one more cut or none. Powell's comments highlighted that divergence and suggested the last two meetings of the year would be close calls. Still-hesitant Fed futures are now pricing in an 85% chance of another 25-basis-point move in October and just 44 basis points in easing over the remainder of the year. * The Nasdaq fell 0.32% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% on Wednesday after the Fed, partly dragged by Nvidia's 3% retreat , opens new tab on reports that China's regulators told domestic tech firms to halt purchases of all Nvidia's AI chips. However, Chinese officials said on Thursday they were willing to engage in dialogue over the issue; President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping due to speak on Friday. Meantime, Oracle rose on hopes for its involvement in a TikTok workout deal and Lyft surged on Waymo partnership news. And market confidence that Fed rates will get below 3% next year from a midpoint of 4.125% now has helped index futures jump back about 1% today, while tech stocks remain in the vanguard worldwide. * A busy week for central bank meetings also saw the Bank of Canada , opens new tab cut its main policy rate by a quarter point as expected and markets now await the Bank of England's decision later on Thursday. With inflation still high, the BoE is widely expected to leave rates on hold but there's a focus on its annual target for reducing its balance sheet of bonds - controversial in that it has involved direct gilt sales, unlike other G7 peers, and long-term UK gilts have suffered. British gilts, sterling and stocks were firm going into the decision, with the market consensus for a slowdown in the planned pace of so-called quantitative tightening, but retaining some active gilt sales. Norway's central bank also cut its main rate by 25bps to 4% on Thursday. * Friday sees the Bank of Japan decide, with the yen and Japanese government bond yields softer running into that and the Nikkei stock index up 1%. The BOJ is expected to hold rates on Friday but hint of a hike later this year. However, political uncertainty adds complexity, with leadership changes in focus as the ruling party prepares for an October vote on a new Prime Minister. Elsewhere, China's stocks underperformed despite ongoing excitement in its tech sector, with a slide in real estate stocks acting as the big drag. In today's column, I discuss why the Bank of England's active gilt sales may be more trouble than they're worth and halting them in favor of just allowing maturing bonds to roll off could go a long way to healing the country's fragile bond market. Today's Market Minute * The Federal Reserve, concerned about the risk of rising unemployment, reduced interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since December and indicated more cuts would follow to halt any slide in a labor market already experiencing higher joblessness among Blacks, a declining workweek, and other signs of weakness. * Walt Disney-owned ABC (DIS.N) said on Wednesday it was pulling "Jimmy Kimmel Live" off the air, after comments by the late-night show's host about the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk prompted a threat by the head of the top U.S. communications regulator against Disney. , opens new tab * U.S. President Donald Trump meets British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday for talks designed to focus the U.S. leader's unprecedented second state visit firmly on global affairs rather than domestic political problems. * The Fed is set to embark on an interest rate-cutting cycle just as many of its peers are winding theirs down, a phenomenon we haven’t seen in a long time. The rest of the world, therefore, may need to be prepared for some choppy waters ahead, writes ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever. * Growing blind spots in the oil market driven by geopolitics are making it harder to determine the true supply-demand balance in the world’s largest and most important commodity market. That’s a recipe for volatility, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso. Chart of the day Market betting on the Fed interest rate trajectory through the end of next year see rates tumbling below 3% in a year's time, implying cuts of 125 basis points over that period, which is two more than Fed policymakers indicated on Wednesday. The implied 'terminal rate' for the cycle of 2.9% is some 35 basis points lower than it was just three months ago. Today's events to watch * Bank of England policy decision (7:00 AM EDT) * U.S. September Philadelphia Fed business survey (8:30 AM EDT) weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM EDT) July TIC data on Treasury holdings and flows (4:00 PM EDT) * U.S. Treasury auctions $19 billion of 10-year inflation-protected securities * U.S. corporate earnings: FedEx, Lennar, Darden Restaurants, Factset * U.S. President Trump meets UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer during state visit to Britain * Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney meets Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-09-18/

2025-09-18 10:13

MUMBAI, Sept 18 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee weakened alongside its regional peers on Thursday as investors digested the U.S. Federal Reserve's widely anticipated interest rate cut and its measured stance on further easing of benchmark borrowing costs. The rupee closed at 88.13 against the U.S. dollar, down 0.36% on the day. Asian currencies were down between 0.1% to 0.6%. Sign up here. The dollar was a touch lower at 96.9 against a basket of major currencies but up from a 3-1/2-year low hit in the immediate aftermath of the Fed's policy announcement. "The level of dissent, the revised 'dots' and economic projections were consistent with the market's pricing and narrative ahead of the meeting but bordered on the hawkish rather than the dovish side of expectations," analysts at HSBC said in a note. Traders reckon that the rupee is likely to see two-way price action in the near-term and track broader dollar moves with support pegged near 88.45 and resistance near 87.75-87.80. Investors stepped up short positions on the Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, driven by concerns over central bank rate cuts in Indonesia and U.S. tariffs affecting India. Bearish bets on the rupee have risen to the highest since early February, the poll showed. The U.S. may soon scrap the penal tariff imposed on Indian goods and could also lower the reciprocal tariff to 10-15% from the existing 25%, India's Chief Economist Adviser V. Anantha Nageshwaran said at an event on Thursday, shortly before spot currency trading closed. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab ended up nearly 0.4% each while the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rose nearly 4 basis points to 6.51%. Tightness in rupee liquidity on account of income tax outflows prompted a rise in daily funding costs and prompted banks to tap the foreign exchange swap market to raise funds. The Wednesday-Thursday swap rate climbed to a peak of 0.50 paisa, implying a rupee interest rate of over 6%, indicating banks are willing to borrow at an elevated cost via swaps. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-ends-lower-tracking-asian-peers-investors-parse-fed-outlook-2025-09-18/

2025-09-18 09:40

Wall Street stocks reach record high Pound dips after BoE leaves rates unchanged US Treasury 10-year yields rise European shares gain Crude oil prices settle lower, gold retreats NEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - World equity markets reached a new peak on Thursday, powered by a continuing bull run on Wall Street, while the U.S. dollar rose against major peers on news that fewer Americans filed new applications for unemployment benefits last week. The pound dipped slightly after the Bank of England kept rates unchanged. Sign up here. Benchmark S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq all posted record closing highs. Intel (INTC.O) , opens new tab jumped more than 22% after Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab said it would invest $5 billion in the struggling U.S. chipmaker. Nvidia's shares closed up 3.5% on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 0.27% to 46,142.42, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab climbed 0.48% to 6,631.96 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab advanced 0.94% to 22,470.73. The small-cap Russell 2000 index (.RUT) , opens new tab rose and touched an intraday record high for the first time since November. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index gained 0.8%. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose as high as 981.65, topping the previous session's record. It was last up 0.29% at 979.18. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and its closely watched "dot plot" had pointed to two more rate cuts over its remaining two meetings this year, but only one additional reduction in 2026. "The market is getting a little priced for perfection, and some of the job erosion is a little unsettling, which is what I think probably led (Fed Chair) Jerome Powell to make his cut yesterday and sort of say he's going to continue to be data dependent," Sandy Villere, portfolio manager at Villere & Co in New Orleans. "The economy in general, between the eroding job numbers and inflation, has kind of stabilized - although you can never fight the Fed and falling rates, which is what I think got the market popping today with a little follow-through," Villere said. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 3.2 basis points to 4.108%. The Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep rates unchanged at 4% while slowing the annual pace at which the central bank sells gilts it purchased between 2009 and 2011 to 70 billion pounds from the current 100 billion pounds, in line with economists' forecasts. The dollar strengthened 0.52% to 0.793 against the Swiss franc and was up 0.67% at 147.95 against the Japanese yen . While data showed fewer Americans filed new applications for unemployment benefits last week, the labor market has softened as both demand for and supply of workers have diminished. The euro fell 0.23% to $1.1785 while the sterling weakened 0.56% to $1.355. The dollar index rose 0.43% to 97.37. Norway's central bank cut its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0%, as widely expected, and said it aims to cut again in the next 12 months but not as much as previously planned. The Norwegian krone remained near a three-year high. Germany's parliament approved the nation's first annual budget since sweeping reforms to loosen fiscal rules were passed earlier this year. In France, hundreds of thousands took part in anti-austerity protests , opens new tab, unions said, urging President Emmanuel Macron and his new Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu to acknowledge their anger and scrap looming budget cuts. The yield on German 10-year Bunds , the benchmark for the euro zone bloc, rose 1.2 basis points to 2.727%. Oil prices fell. Brent crude futures dropped 0.8% to settle at $67.44 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 0.8% to settle at $63.57. Gold prices took a breather from record highs. Spot gold fell 0.38% to $3,645.89 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-3-pix-2025-09-18/

2025-09-18 07:45

CANBERRA, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Australia has detected the larvae of khapra beetles in imported nappies sold in supermarkets nationwide, the agriculture ministry said, raising concerns the pest could infest grain storages and disrupt agricultural exports. The ministry said in a statement on Tuesday it had been working with the importer and retailer of the nappies to trace and treat nappies containing the insect since it was alerted to their detection in New South Wales on September 7. Sign up here. Agriculture Minister Julie Collins said the beetles, which feed on stored food, making it unusable, hitchhiked to Australia in a shipping container. "We've managed to track down around 1,500 of the 2,000 cartons (of nappies) but there are still some in circulation," she said in an Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) report on Thursday. "We want to of course make sure that this doesn't take hold anywhere and we've got them all," Collins said. Australia is currently free of the khapra beetle, a tiny brown insect up to 3 mm (0.12 inches) long. The maggot-like larvae are a little longer, up to 4.5 mm, golden-brown and hairy. The agriculture ministry classifies khapra beetles as the biggest pest threat to Australia's A$18 billion ($12 billion) grains industry, saying their establishment in the country would cause trading partners to reject Australian goods, causing huge losses. Australia is one of the world's biggest exporters of wheat, barley and sorghum. "This is a pest that would have the same impact as a foot and mouth animal disease outbreak in Australia," said Xavier Martin, president of farm industry group NSW Farmers. "Governments have to do everything in their power to contain and eradicate this pest, or the damage will be beyond our worst nightmare," he said. The larvae were found in the brand Little One's Ultra Dry Nappy Pants Walker Size 5, the ministry said, which is only sold by Woolworths (WOW.AX) , opens new tab, Australia's largest supermarket chain. Woolworths said it had removed unsold nappies of that brand in that size from shelves and quarantined them. The agriculture ministry said anyone who bought similar nappies should seal them in a bag and call the authorities. Woolworths said the nappies were supplied by Belgian manufacturer Ontex (ONTEX.BR) , opens new tab. Ontex said in a statement on Thursday it did not know where the larvae had come from but there was no evidence they were introduced when the nappies were being produced. "Operations at our Eastern Creek manufacturing and warehouse facility (in Sydney) have been suspended until comprehensive checks are completed and we receive confirmation that manufacturing and shipping can safely resume," it added. Khapra beetles are native to India but have spread through numerous countries in Asia, Africa and Europe, according to the ministry. ($1 = 1.5049 Australian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/beetle-that-threatens-australias-grains-industry-found-imported-nappies-2025-09-18/