2025-09-16 00:57

Milei's budget aims for fiscal balance, 85% allocated to education, healthcare and pensions Argentina forecasts 5% GDP growth, inflation to slow to 10.1% by 2026 October's legislative vote poses challenges for Milei's agenda BUENOS AIRES, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Argentina's President Javier Milei presented on Monday the government's proposal for next year's budget, which he said would guarantee a fiscal balance, a cornerstone of his economic policy, while also hiking funds for healthcare, education and pensions. "There is no other way but that of fiscal balance," Milei said in a national address, ahead of a high-stakes legislative election in which Milei's libertarian party is aiming to secure enough seats to keep Congress from overriding his vetoes. Sign up here. The key vote comes after a local election in The populous Buenos Aires province dealt a blow to Milei's party, whose austerity measures have weighed on its popularity. Milei said the budget proposal would include a "rule of fiscal stability," which means that if costs exceed expectations the budget should be adjusted to maintain a fiscal balance. Next year should see Argentina log a fiscal surplus, or, "in the worst case scenario," a fiscal balance, he added. The draft budget document showed that the government expects a fiscal surplus of 1.5% of gross domestic product next year and a financial surplus - after debt payments - of 0.3% of GDP. Latin America's third-largest economy should post GDP growth of around 5% next year, according to the document, after expanding 5.4% in 2025. The government also forecasts a trade deficit of $5.751 billion next year, and for the local currency to hit 1,423 pesos per U.S. dollar. Annual inflation is expected to slow to 10.1% by end 2026 from the 24.5% estimated by the end of this year. HUMAN CAPITAL Milei said 85% of the proposed budget would be destined for education, healthcare and pensions, including a 17% increase in allocations for healthcare, 8% for education and 5% for pensions, on top of inflation. "This means that this government's priority, as we have always said, is human capital," Milei added. Milei's government has dramatically brought down yearly inflation from the triple digits it reached before he came into office. However, his government's popularity has been hit ahead of the key elections by a corruption scandal and the fallout of his austerity measures for disabled and pensioners, which have fueled regular protests in the capital, Buenos Aires. Local elections in Buenos Aires province earlier this month resulted in a solid victory for the opposition Peronists over the ruling party, raising doubts on the minority government's ability to gain more seats in Congress and secure its agenda. Milei will send the proposal to Congress later tonight, he said. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-draft-2026-budget-spotlights-fiscal-balance-hikes-social-allocations-2025-09-16/

2025-09-16 00:47

Sept 16 (Reuters) - Oil prices held steady in early trade on Tuesday after rising in the previous session, as market participants contemplated potential supply disruption from Russia after Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries. Brent crude futures edged up 4 cents to $67.48 a barrel by 0000 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.32, up 2 cents. On Monday, Brent settled up 45 cents at $67.44 while WTI settled 61 cents higher at $63.30. Sign up here. Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure in an attempt to impair Moscow's war capability, as talks to end their conflict have stalled. "Heightened fears of supply disruptions from Russia, a key producer accounting for over 10% of global oil output" is helping oil prices, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a client note. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said the government would not impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods to encourage China to halt purchases of Russian oil unless European countries hit China and India with steep duties of their own. Investors are also watching out for the U.S. Federal Reserve's September 16-17 meeting at which the bank is widely expected to cut interest rates. Lower borrowing costs could boost fuel demand. "A weaker U.S. dollar, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this week, further supported crude oil," Sycamore said. The U.S. dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab, which measures the greenback's strength against six peers, slipped to a nearly one-week low. A weaker dollar makes oil less expensive for holders of other currencies. Adding to the risk profile of Middle Eastern oil supply, the Israeli military launched a ground offensive on Monday to occupy Gaza City, Axios reported citing Israeli officials. Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese officials said on Monday they have reached a framework agreement to switch short-video app TikTok to U.S.-controlled ownership in a rare breakthrough in months-long talks. Previous instances of easing U.S.-China trade tension have boosted risk sentiment and increased oil demand expectations. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steady-market-weighs-supply-risk-attacks-russian-refineries-2025-09-16/

2025-09-16 00:14

TOKYO, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The dollar traded near a 2-1/2 month low against the euro and close to a 10-month trough versus the risk-sensitive Aussie on Tuesday as investors cemented bets for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week and more to follow. The greenback changed hands just shy of a more than two-month low on the British pound with U.S. President Donald Trump renewing calls for aggressive monetary easing. Sign up here. Markets see a rate reduction of at least 25 basis points on Wednesday as a certainty, with a small chance of a super-sized 50 basis-point cut. A total of 67 basis points of reductions are seen over the rest of this year, rising to 81 basis points by end-January. Trump in a social media post on Monday called on Powell to enact a "bigger" cut to benchmark interest rates in a social media post, pointing to the housing market. Rapidly softening labour market data has been the key driver of the ramp-up in easing bets in recent weeks, resulting in a lower dollar and bond yields while pushing up equity prices, with Wall Street setting new records on Monday. There is an "increasing view that the Fed is behind the curve and needing to ramp up the urgency to take rates to neutral," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. "The weight of capital is moving ever closer to a consensus position that the Fed cut rates not only in the September meeting, but also in October and December, and possibly in January too." The euro was little changed early in Asia's morning, changing hands at $1.1765, not far from last Tuesday's high of $1.1780, a level that had not been seen since July 28. Sterling was steady at $1.3605 after reaching $1.3621 in the previous session for the first time since July 8. The Australian dollar held firm at $0.6672, right below Monday's high of $0.6674, the highest since November 8. The U.S. dollar was flat at 147.42 yen . https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-back-foot-traders-eye-series-fed-rate-cuts-2025-09-16/

2025-09-16 00:06

BEIJING, Sept 15 (Reuters) - (This Sept 15 story has been corrected to say that 116 yuan/MWh is the solar power capture price, not spot price, in paragraph 12) Solar power prices in China's first provincial auction under its new renewable pricing mechanism were so low they could discourage new project investments there, analysts said. Sign up here. Last week's auction in Shandong province, seen as a bellwether for nationwide auctions, signals that renewables prices in the future will be lower than under the previous system - although not necessarily as low as in Shandong, where a glut of solar investment has driven prices down. Based on the results, "I wouldn't be very optimistic in other provinces, unless it's in coastal provinces with strong power [demand] growth," Jefferies analyst Alan Lau said. The auction was part of a reform announced in February aimed at introducing market-based pricing in the world's dominant producer of renewable energy. Previously, renewables projects in China enjoyed a guaranteed rate of return fixed to the coal price benchmark. That gave developers valuable certainty but risked over-investment. From June, local transmission grid operators will award new renewable projects contracts for most of their generation using an auction that sets a clearing price based on the highest bid, after selecting bids from lowest to highest until the province's target volume is met. Renewable generators must sell into the market but will be compensated if the price falls below the auction clearing price, or strike price. Shandong, a top renewables builder, was the first to hold auctions. The clearing price for solar was 225 yuan ($31.58) per megawatt hour (MWh), according to a state media report on Friday citing Shandong's grid operator. Developers could submit bids between 123 yuan/MWh and 350 yuan/MWh. Investors would struggle to make an acceptable rate of return at that price, Lau said. Many of the Shandong projects were already completed so were "desperate" to sell their power at a fixed rate, said Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The system offers more certainty than the alternative of selling into Shandong's spot market. Recent average solar power capture prices in the province have been as low as 116 yuan/MWh because of its ample solar supply, said David Fishman, principal at consultancy the Lantau Group, in a post on LinkedIn. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/china-renewable-auction-signals-challenges-solar-developers-2025-09-15/

2025-09-16 00:05

All 31 economists see rates left on hold at 5.00% on September 17 BENGALURU, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Indonesia's central bank will pause its easing cycle on Wednesday according to a Reuters poll of economists published a week after the removal of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati rattled investor confidence and weakened the rupiah. Indrawati's sudden exit erased most of the rupiah's gains following a U.S. trade deal struck in mid-July, prompting the central bank to step in to steady the market. Even with that intervention, the currency has fallen about 1% since the trade agreement was agreed. Sign up here. The renewed currency pressure, coupled with back-to-back rate cuts in July and August, is likely to deter the central bank from lowering borrowing costs again, despite expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates just hours later. All 31 economists in the September 9-15 poll expected Bank Indonesia to leave its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate (IDCBRR=ECI) , opens new tab unchanged at 5.00% when the two-day meeting concludes on September 17. The overnight deposit and lending facility rates were expected to remain steady at 4.25% and 5.75%, respectively. "The abrupt departure of the former finance minister has stoked fears over the government's commitment to fiscal discipline and sapped investor confidence. With the rupiah under renewed pressure, BI's priority is likely to shift back to external stability," said ANZ economist Krystal Tan. "Recent developments have further strengthened our call for a pause." While a pause appears certain, concerns are emerging about BI's independence. Under a 'burden-sharing' arrangement, the central bank will help the government programs by raising interest rates it pays on state deposits - a move some economists see as undermining monetary autonomy. Indonesia announced a 16.23 trillion rupiah ($989.3 million) stimulus package for the fourth quarter of 2025, underscoring the government's spending push. Asked about the risk of political influence over monetary policy, seven economists said they were somewhat worried, one said very worried and two said not worried. "The main idea of burden sharing is simply to help the government finance its ambitious spending plans linked to election promises with a limited multiplier effect. This phase of fiscal dominance suggests potential weakening of central bank independence," said Kunal Kundu, economist at Societe Generale. "But then again, why just blame Indonesia? One can see that in many parts of the world now." A separate Reuters poll in July showed more than 70% of economists, 36 of 50, said they were worried about the Fed's independence from political influence. "At this point, I'd say that I'm somewhat concerned about Bank Indonesia's independence," said Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. "I'd become a lot more concerned if we explicitly saw calls from government officials for rate cuts, unexpected changes to the leadership at the central bank, or a return to primary-market government bond purchases." Despite those concerns, economists still expect the central bank to ease policy further once stability returns to the rupiah. Of the 25 economists with a year-end view on rates, 14 forecast a 25-basis-point cut to 4.75%, 10 anticipated two quarter-point cuts to 4.50%, and just one projected a 75-basis-point drop to 4.25%. "Risks are still skewed towards a cut should the currency stabilises quickly. The policy bias will likely stay dovish," said Adam Ahmad Samdin, economist at Oxford Economics. (Other stories from the September Reuters global economic poll) ($1 = 16,405 rupiah) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/poll-bank-indonesia-hold-rates-this-week-political-shake-up-hits-rupiah-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 23:36

Sept 16 (Reuters) - Australian coal miner New Hope Corporation (NHC.AX) , opens new tab posted a 7.7% drop in its annual profit on Tuesday, missing estimates, as lower realised pricing weighed over increased sales volume. The company, which is largely a thermal coal producer, realised average sales price of A$157 per ton, a 14.3% decrease from a year earlier. Sign up here. Its New Acland mine had experienced challenges with rail capacity in the quarter ended April 30, as rail network constraints led to a "significant" increase in inventory, according to New Hope. Despite significant weather challenges and logistics constraints, New Hope's saleable coal production increased by 18.1% for the full year to 10.7 million metric tons, while sales increased by 21.4% from the previous year. It declared a final dividend of 15 Australian cents per ordinary share compared with 22 Australian cents a year earlier. For the year ended July 31, the miner reported a net profit after tax of A$439.4 million ($293.04 million), down from A$475.9 million reported a year earlier. It missed the Visible Alpha estimates of A$455.9 million. ($1 = 1.4995 Australian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/australian-coal-miner-new-hope-logs-77-drop-annual-profit-2025-09-15/