2025-09-12 12:06

Cracks appearing in labour market give green light to Fed Euro awaits Fitch verdict on French finances LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The dollar inched higher on Friday after falling the day before as a surge in U.S. jobless claims and a modest tick up in inflation kept investors zeroed in on likely Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next week and beyond. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 97.66, but it was still on track to record a weekly fall of 0.1%, its second consecutive weekly decline. Sign up here. On Thursday, data showed the biggest weekly increase in four years in the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits. That overshadowed U.S. consumer inflation data for August, which showed prices rising at the fastest pace in seven months but with increases still modest and broadly in line with expectations. While the mixed data might add some wrinkles to the Fed's policy deliberations next week, investor focus is mostly centered on rate cut prospects for now. "The hurdle to faster cuts is labour market weakness as long as inflation stays well behaved," said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura. "I still think it's a very high bar to cut by 50 basis points next week," he added. Pricing of Fed fund futures indicates that the market believes the Fed is certain to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) on September 17. However, traders have reined in bets on a larger 50 bps rate cut next month, with pricing implying a shallower path of easing before the end of the year than anticipated earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose four bps to 4.0433% compared with its U.S. close of 4.011%, having fallen below 4% for the first time since April on Thursday. The euro was down less than 0.1% at $1.1725 after rising the day before as traders curbed their bets on another European Central Bank rate cut this cycle, now seeing another move at less than 50%. The ECB kept its key interest rate on hold at 2% for a second straight meeting on Thursday, with chief Christine Lagarde saying that the bank remains in a "good place", adding that risks to the economy had become more balanced than before. Fitch Ratings is expected to give its verdict on French public finances after markets close on Friday following the confidence motion on September 8. "Fitch’s sovereign rating model is, if anything, likely to indicate a small improvement," analysts from Citi wrote in a research report. "Going explicitly against the direction of its model and ‘manually’ downgrading the rating would require the agency to come to the conclusion that the balance of power between stakeholders of public funds has tilted further away from financial creditors since the last rating decision in spring," they wrote. Against the yen, the dollar was trading 0.4% stronger at 147.76 after the U.S. and Japanese governments issued a joint statement on Friday, which reaffirmed that exchange rates should be "market determined" and that excess volatility and disorderly moves in exchange rates were undesirable. Sterling traded at $1.3553 , slipping 0.2% after data showed the British economy stagnated in July. The offshore yuan was last at 7.1234 yuan per dollar , weakening 0.1%, while the Australian dollar was a touch softer at $0.6645 , although it remained near a 10-month high. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-regains-some-ground-still-heading-small-weekly-drop-2025-09-12/

2025-09-12 11:53

DENPASAR/JAKARTA, Indonesia, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Two people were still missing on Indonesia's resort island of Bali, officials said on Friday, as flood waters began to recede after killing at least 18 people this week, most of them swept away when rivers burst their banks. Torrential rains on Tuesday and Wednesday caused the fast-rising floods in Denpasar and six of Bali's eight regions, blocking major roads and access to the island's international airport. There were also landslides in some areas. Sign up here. Indonesia's disaster agency said in a statement that the death toll has risen to 18 from a previous 16 and the search for the two missing was still ongoing. Rapid development on the island has not taken into account the need for sufficient drainage infrastructure, said I Nyoman Gede Maha Putra, an architecture and planning expert at the Warmadewa University in Denpasar. "The city planning does not consider disasters," he told Reuters. "All of the infrastructure construction is geared toward making Bali more attractive to tourists and investors." I Wayan Koster, Bali’s governor, was quoted by local media as saying, however, that conversion of land use was not to blame for this week’s flooding in Denpasar. The regional development planning body for the Bali government did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Tourism is Bali's main source of income, and last year, there were more than 6.3 million international tourist arrivals on the island, data from the country's Statistics Bureau shows, exceeding tourist arrivals from 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic ground tourism to a halt. Bali accounted for more than 40% of Indonesia's total tourist arrivals last year. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/land-use-biodiversity/waters-recede-bali-after-floods-kill-18-people-with-two-still-missing-2025-09-12/

2025-09-12 11:44

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS NATO chief and top commander to hold press conference EU extends sanctions on individuals over war in Ukraine Extended German air policing takes effect over Poland Russia dismisses concern about military exercise WARSAW, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Poland rejected on Friday a suggestion by Donald Trump that Russian drone incursions into its airspace could have been a mistake, a rare contradiction of the U.S. president from one of Washington's closest European allies. Poland, backed by aircraft from other NATO, shot down drones that had violated its airspace on Wednesday, the first time a member of the Western military alliance is known to have fired during Russia's war in Ukraine. Sign up here. Russia said its forces had been attacking Ukraine at the time and that it had not intended to hit any targets in Poland. Trump told reporters in Washington on Thursday: "It could have been a mistake." But Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk responded on X: "We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn't. And we know it." After strong condemnation of Russia by European leaders over the incident, Germany said it had extended air policing over Poland. The United Nations Security Council was set to meet on Friday at Poland's request to discuss the incident. NATO called a press conference for 1500 GMT by its head, Mark Rutte, and its top military official, Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexus Grynkewich, who is a U.S. Air Force general. 'NO QUESTION OF A MISTAKE' For Warsaw's leadership so directly to contradict Trump is almost unheard of, and a sign of Europe's alarm at the U.S. president's willingness to give weight to Moscow's account. Poland is among the closest U.S. allies in Europe. It has praised Trump for calling for greater European military spending, and has been praised in turn by the Trump administration for devoting the largest share of its economy to defence of any NATO ally, including the United States itself. Polish Deputy Defence Minister Cezary Tomczyk said: "I think this is a message that should reach President Trump today: there's no question of a mistake - this was a deliberate Russian attack." Warsaw has portrayed the drone incursions as an attempt by Russia to test the capabilities of Poland and NATO to respond. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski was visiting Kyiv on Friday. QUESTIONS ABOUT EUROPEAN DEFENCES This week's incident has raised questions about NATO's preparedness for drone attacks and the security of Europe's civil air transport. European leaders say it is the latest demonstration that Moscow has no interest in a peace deal in Ukraine, weeks after Trump hosted President Vladimir Putin in Alaska and withdrew a demand that Russia accept an immediate ceasefire. Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Moscow to agree a ceasefire or face new sanctions, only to row back. European officials have been in Washington this week hoping to coordinate sanctions on Russia with the U.S. administration. Announcing such sanctions in tandem was previously standard practice but has not taken place since Trump returned to office. EU member states agreed on Friday to a regular six-month extension to their existing list of travel bans and freezes on bank accounts of people and companies over the Russian invasion. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday peace negotiations were on pause and that "the Europeans are hindering this" peace process. France said the Russian ambassador would be summoned on Friday. On Thursday Paris said it would deploy three Rafale fighter jets to help Poland protect its airspace and Germany said it would strengthen its commitment to NATO's eastern border. Japan said it had decided to lower its price cap on Russian crude oil to punish Moscow for its continued war in Ukraine. RUSSIAN ATTACKS AND UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES Russia and its close ally Belarus began a long-planned joint military exercise on Friday involving drills in both countries and in the Baltic and Barents seas. Dismissing concerns abroad about the exercise, Peskov said Western European countries were suffering "emotional overload" and that Russia did not pose a threat to them. Russia also pressed on with attacks on Ukraine, killing three people in the northern Ukrainian region of Sumy, local Ukrainian prosecutors said. Ukrainian drones attacked Russia's northwestern port of Primorsk, setting fire to a vessel and a pumping station, the regional governor said. It was the first reported drone strike on one of the country's largest oil and fuel export terminals. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/poland-says-russian-drone-incursions-could-not-have-been-mistake-contradicting-2025-09-12/

2025-09-12 11:35

Markets firm bets on Fed rate cuts Global stocks on track for weekly gain Gold trading near record highs LONDON/SYDNEY, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Global stocks were on track for a weekly gain on Friday as expectations for rapid-fire U.S. rate cuts promised to lower borrowing costs globally, a relief to stressed bond markets and a drag on the dollar. European shares slipped 0.1%, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures were flat and down 0.1% respectively, after the Wall Street indexes hit new peaks overnight. (.STOXX) , opens new tab, , The MSCI All Country World Index remained on track for a 1.8% weekly gain. (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab Sign up here. Gold, meanwhile, was on track for a fourth weekly gain in a row and traded near record levels, in a sign that investor concerns about global economic uncertainties persist. Stock markets across Asia had earlier made strong gains. Chinese stocks hit a 3-1/2 year high, spurred by extravagant expectations for AI-related earnings growth. The U.S. consumer price report had been the last major hurdle to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next week, and while it showed an increase in prices, markets remained focused on weak job numbers in the previous week. "Even if we have some weaker numbers on the job market, the markets are really focusing on the Fed impact that will give a new boost to growth in the future," said Amelie Derambure, senior multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi. Veronica Clark, an economist at Citi, said the bank continued to expect 125 basis points of Fed rate cuts over the next five meetings. Futures markets show a 95% chance of a quarter-point cut to 4.00%-4.25% next week, and a 5% chance of a half-point cut. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose 2.5 bps to 4.035%, having fallen below 4% for the first time since April on Thursday. ECB 'IN A GOOD PLACE' In currency markets, the dollar index - which measures the greenback against six peers - was broadly unchanged at 97.635. The dollar gained 0.3% versus the yen to 147.68, after Japanese and U.S. finance ministers on Friday released a statement reaffirming that neither country would target currency levels in their policies. The euro was broadly flat at $1.17305 , having received a modest fillip on Thursday when the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged and signalled that it was in a "good place" on policy. "This suggests the Governing Council is not inclined to ease in the absence of a large growth shock," said Greg Fuzesi, an economist at JPMorgan. "We have thus moved back our call for a final rate cut from October to December." After the meeting, ECB sources told Reuters the December meeting would be the most realistic time frame to debate whether another cut was needed to buffer the economy. Markets imply only a one-in-six chance of a December easing. Britain's economy recorded zero monthly growth in July, in line with forecasts but showing a sharp drop in factory output, weighing on sterling which was down 0.1% at $1.35586. In commodity markets, gold firmed 0.5% to $3,651 an ounce , just off the record top of 3,673.95 hit early in the week. Oil prices gained despite the International Energy Agency predicting an even larger record oil surplus next year as OPEC continues to pump more product. Brent was last up 1.4% at $67.28 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained 1.2% to $63.09 per barrel. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-4-pix-2025-09-12/

2025-09-12 11:20

BRUSSELS, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The European Union could phase out Russian gas within six to 12 months by replacing it with U.S. liquefied natural gas, and the United States communicated this position to EU officials this week, U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright told Reuters on Friday. Wright was speaking in Brussels, where he met EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen on Thursday to discuss ending Europe's purchases of Russian energy. The EU is negotiating legal proposals to phase out imports of Russian oil and gas by January 2028, with a ban on short-term contracts kicking in from next year. Sign up here. "I think this could easily be done within 12 months, maybe within six months," Wright said, of how quickly the EU could phase out Russian gas. "I definitely voiced the opinion we could do it faster. On the U.S. side, we could do it faster, and I think it would be good if those dates were moved up even more. I don't know that that's going to happen, but that was dialogued," he said, referring to his meeting with Jorgensen. A European Commission spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The U.S. is ramping up pressure on Europe to cut off energy revenue to Moscow, seeking to end the war in Ukraine. As Russia's most lucrative export, its fuel revenue has helped fund the war. Jorgensen said , opens new tab on Thursday it was unacceptable the EU continued to import Russian energy - but that the 2028 phase out was ambitious and would ensure EU countries do not face energy price spikes or supply shortages in the meantime. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this week the bloc was considering a faster phase-out of Russian fossil fuels as part of new sanctions against Moscow, without specifying how Brussels would do this. New sanctions require unanimous approval from all 27 EU members. Hungary and Slovakia have so far opposed sanctions on Russian gas - which is why the EU proposed the 2028 phase out, in a law which can be approved by a reinforced majority of EU countries. "The faster we phase out, the sooner you put pressure on Russia," Wright said. Europe is expected to purchase around 13% of its gas from Russia this year, down from roughly 45% before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to EU figures. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-could-quit-russian-gas-within-year-us-energy-chief-says-2025-09-12/

2025-09-12 11:08

US CPI rises 0.4% in August Weekly jobless claims at a near 4-year high Silver prices at a 14-year high All precious metals headed for weekly gains Sept 12 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Friday to hover near a record high scaled earlier in the week, as concerns over a weak labour market in the U.S. cemented expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the end of the year, boosting demand for the yellow metal. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,650.23 per ounce, as of 1027 GMT, near an all-time high of $3,673.95 touched on Tuesday. Bullion has gained 1.8% so far this week and was headed for its fourth straight weekly gain. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 0.4% at $3,689.10. "The market is preparing for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates at the next meeting. The expectation is that this is not only one cut, (while) U.S. President Donald Trump's desire for lower policy rates also lifts gold's appeal," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Trump reiterated his call on Wednesday for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut benchmark interest rates. "Given these tailwinds and following the recent step higher in exchange-traded fund flows (ETFs), we now look for gold to rise to $3,900/oz by mid next year," he added. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, the steepest monthly rise in seven months, while weekly jobless claims surged to their highest since October 2021 last week. The Fed will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on September 17, said almost all 107 economists in a Reuters poll. Non-yielding bullion tends to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment. Gold prices have risen about 39% so far this year, driven by a soft dollar, strong central bank buying, dovish monetary policy and heightened global uncertainty. Meanwhile, China is seeking public feedback on a proposal to make it easier to import and export gold and gold products by streamlining the licence system, its central bank said on Friday. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 1.7% to $42.27 per ounce, at a 14-year high, platinum was up 0.9% at $1,391.50 and palladium gained 1.6% to $1,206.81. All three metals were set for weekly gains. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-hovers-near-all-time-high-soft-us-data-boosts-rate-cut-bets-2025-09-12/