2025-09-11 13:54
Sept 11 (Reuters) - Concern about a softening job market will keep the Federal Reserve on course to resume its interest rate cuts next week, though the U.S. central bank is likely to move cautiously because of fresh signs that tariffs are pushing prices higher. That was the bet in financial markets on Thursday after government reports showed jobless claims jumped last week and consumer inflation rose more than expected in August, with particularly big increases in the prices of goods like furniture and cars that are heavily impacted by import duties. Consumer prices rose 2.9% last month on a year-over-year basis, matching the rise in the comparable period in July. The Fed targets 2% inflation by a different, though related, measure. Sign up here. "Inflation remains hotter than hoped, but the Fed's focus is jobs," James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, wrote in a note, adding that the weekly increase in unemployment claims was the biggest in almost four years. "On the face of it, this hints at a pick-up in the pace of layoffs in an environment of already weak hiring and will reaffirm expectations of a 25-bp (basis point) Fed rate cut next week." Rate futures pricing reflects expectations for quarter-percentage-point rate cuts at each of the Fed's three remaining policy meetings this year, starting with a reduction in the Fed's policy rate to the 4.00%-4.25% range at the September 16-17 gathering. Bets also rose on the prospect that the Fed would deliver a fourth consecutive rate cut in January, with the odds on that outcome approaching 50%, up from less than 40% before the data on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters before the latest data largely expected the Fed to cut rates twice in the rest of 2025. President Donald Trump has called for far steeper rate cuts. https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-seen-track-rate-cuts-job-worries-eclipse-inflation-fears-2025-09-11/
2025-09-11 12:57
IEA expects oversupply to increase with OPEC output boost EIA reports bigger than expected rise in oil stocks US consumer prices data due later on Thursday LONDON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Thursday, pressured by concerns over softening U.S. demand and broad oversupply that offset threats to output from conflict in the Middle East and the Russian war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures were down 86 cents, or 1.3%, at $66.63 a barrel by 1240 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 89 cents, or 1.4%, to $62.78. Sign up here. "Oil prices are falling today in response to bearish IEA headlines, which suggest massive oversupply on the oil market next year," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that world oil supply will rise more rapidly than expected this year on OPEC+ increasing output further. However, the OPEC report published after the IEA's kept non-OPEC supply and demand forecasts for the year unchanged, citing steady demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group collectively known as OPEC+, on Sunday decided to raise production from October. The market was torn between perceived supply shortage due to a rise in tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine and actual oversupply from higher OPEC+ production and swelling stocks, said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to China are set to surge in October, several trade sources told Reuters on Thursday, with Aramco shipping about 1.65 million barrels per day in October, compared with 1.43 million bpd allocated in September. In the U.S., crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels in the week to September 5, the Energy Information Administration said, against expectations of a draw of 1 million barrels. The market was also questioning how long China could continue to absorb barrels and keep OECD inventories low, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, adding that investors were also watching fo further sanctions affecting Russian oil. U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright and EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen discussed efforts to restrict Russian energy trade in Brussels, with Jorgensen saying that the bloc's planned deadlines were ambitious but there is a need to speed the process. Going into 2026, the overall oil market might register a hefty surplus, said Ole Hvalbye at SEB Research, adding that demand appears to be holding up and could potentially absorb the increased OPEC+ output. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-fall-1-oversupply-weaker-us-demand-2025-09-11/
2025-09-11 12:57
LONDON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday as expected but offered no clues about its next move, even as investors continue to bet that more support will be needed as inflation dips below target next year. Inflation is now seen at 1.9% in 2027, below the 2.0% projected in June, and core inflation is seen at 1.8% then, both below the 2% target, fresh ECB projections showed. Sign up here. The euro briefly slipped but was last trading 0.18% firmer at $1.1715 , while interest rate-sensitive short-dated bond yields were broadly steady on the day , . Europe's STOXX index was up 0.3% from its last close. COMMENTS: MARK WALL, CHIEF EUROPEAN ECONOMIST, DEUTSCHE BANK, LONDON: "The near-term staff forecasts for headline inflation were revised a little higher, which means a less deep undershoot of the inflation target in 2026. However, the downward revision of the core inflation forecast to 1.8% in 2027 signals a potential lengthening of the undershoot. That could have dovish ramifications for monetary policy. The ECB describes the inflation outlook as “broadly unchanged” and the statement is quite succinct. The ECB isn’t rushing to judgement on the 2027 number. The rates pause likely continues." ARNE PETIMEZAS, DIRECTOR RESEARCH, AFS GROUP, AMSTERDAM: "A bit of weakness in euro/dollar as the ECB cut the 2027 core CPI forecast to 1.8% from 1.9%. Yes, that's 2027, and nobody has a clue, and the ECB staff forecasting track record is awful. What matters is that the doves now have a shoe to throw at the hawks." JACK ALLEN-REYNOLDS, DEPUTY CHIEF EURO-ZONE ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS, LONDON: "The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was in line with expectations. The bank is unlikely to change interest rates again this year, but we think the risks are skewed towards renewed cuts in 2026." IRENE LAURO, EURO ZONE ECONOMIST, SCHRODERS, LONDON: "The ECB today appears to confirm our view that the easing cycle has ended. With trade uncertainty fading, the euro area’s recovery is set to accelerate." "Risks have shifted for the eurozone from trade uncertainty to political instability, with France now in the fiscal spotlight. But the resilience of the economy and strengthening domestic demand means the ECB can afford to keep monetary policy unchanged." FRANCESCO PESOLE, FX STRATEGIST, ING, LONDON: "The euro is a little weaker, it's what we expected, the risks were to the downside. "It could be this GDP forecast for 2026 is a little lower. "There’s no reason why at this point they would change their guidance. It's a small reaction so we'll see what happens in the press conference." "Things that can move a little bit more is probably anything related to bunds and if the market senses that the council or (ECB President Christine) Lagarde are ready to take the French situation into consideration in monetary policy decisions. "But I think it’s still not highly likely that she will give anything away, she will just follow the script where she says the ECB can step in with the necessary tools." MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH, ECONOMIST, SALTMARSH ECONOMICS, LONDON: "No surprises from the ECB as it leaves interest rates unchanged. However, in terms of the new forecasts, there are downward revisions to the inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027, which suggests that the ECB maintains a slight easing bias as it heads into year-end." SYLVAIN BROYER, CHIEF EMEA ECONOMIST, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS: "The ECB is done cutting rates. Sticky services and food inflation keep consumer sentiment under strain. Real wage growth still outpaces productivity, and easing the policy rates to weaken the euro would be useless in the present situation." https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/view-ecb-holds-rates-steady-2-lowers-inflation-forecasts-2025-09-11/
2025-09-11 12:49
NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar reversed gains against the yen while the euro turned higher on Thursday after inflation data came in mostly in-line with market forecasts, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates at a policy meeting next week. Higher-than-expected jobless claims also weighed on the dollar, suggesting a weakening labor market. Sign up here. The dollar was last slightly down against the yen at 147.44 yen , while the euro rose 0.1% to $1.1712 . https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-dollar-pares-gains-vs-yen-euro-turns-higher-after-inflation-data-jobless-2025-09-11/
2025-09-11 12:40
BENGALURU, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on September 17 as labor market softness overshadows inflation risks, said almost all 107 economists in a Reuters poll, with most expecting one further cut next quarter. Stalling job growth in August and a sharp downward revision to 12-month job data through March led many economists to revise their forecasts to include more rate cuts than they had thought previously. Sign up here. Markets have fully priced in a September cut and now anticipate three reductions this year, compared to two just weeks ago. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers have hinted at easing monetary policy despite inflation risks related to tariffs. The Fed will lower the interest rate by a quarter point to 4.00%-4.25% next week for the first time this year, 105 of 107 economists in the September 8-11 Reuters poll predicted. Last month, a 61% majority had expected that to happen. "The Fed now has four months of evidence of a slowdown in labor demand that appears more persistent in nature ... In short, ignore where inflation is today and ease policy to support the labor market," said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. "We think a 25bp rate cut in September is more likely than a larger cut." Two of the analysts expected a 50-basis-point reduction. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for his reluctance to cut rates. Trump's nominee for a Fed governor, Stephen Miran, may not join the board in time for next week's meeting, while Governor Lisa Cook continues in her job following a court ruling after the president attempted to remove her. Some board members could dissent next week and vote for a bigger cut or a hold, many economists said. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman opposed holding rates steady in July. "It's just a very difficult policymaking environment. I wouldn't be surprised to see more dissents," said Stephen Juneau, a U.S. economist at Bank of America. "If the Fed cuts aggressively to where they're just leaning too much on the story - the labor market has significant downside risk and they don't have to worry about inflation upside risk - then we get in the situation where it's more of a policy error." A 60% majority of respondents, 64 of 107, expected the rate to go down by 50 basis points by end-2025, but 37% predicted 75 bps cuts by year-end, a sharp rise from only 22% in August. More than 60% of the economists, 26 of 42, who answered an extra question said surging inflation or a combination of that with fast-rising unemployment was more likely over the coming year. Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed's 2% target until at least 2027, while unemployment is expected to hover around the current 4.3% for years, the poll found. Later on Thursday, official data is expected to show consumer price inflation accelerated last month. Still, poll medians suggest the central bank will cut rates by another 75 basis points next year to put the fed funds rate at 3.00%-3.25%. "If we get a more dovish Fed chair, which presumably we will, we do think the Fed will cut rates at that point, in the second half of next year by an additional 75 basis points," Bank of America's Juneau added. "How willing are you to cut rates and to what level are you willing to cut rates? That's going to be a key interview question for the next Fed chair." About 76% of the economists said they did not foresee a significant erosion of the Fed's independence during Powell's term, which ends in May. (Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) https://www.reuters.com/business/september-fed-rate-cut-done-deal-least-one-more-follow-by-year-end-reuters-poll-2025-09-11/
2025-09-11 12:37
WINDHOEK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Namibia is set to increase its sulphuric acid production in response to rising critical mineral output, with Green Metals Refining and Vedanta (VDAN.NS) , opens new tab announcing plans on Thursday to set up and revive plants, respectively. Sulphuric acid is widely used in the extraction processes for metals including uranium, copper, manganese and rare earths used in clean energy technologies. Sign up here. Namibia, the world's third-largest producer of uranium, is emerging as a leader in the green energy sector, with eight active critical minerals projects set to position it at the forefront of global green energy initiatives. London-based Green Metals Refining plans to spend an initial $59 million on the first phase of a plant that will produce 175,000 metric tons of sulphuric acid a year. The plant's annual output is expected to eventually rise to 720,000 tons, the company said in a statement on Thursday. "As Namibia is a net importer of sulphuric acid with a large pipeline of acid-consuming projects, we have established a compelling business case that can benefit local third-party metals projects," Green Metals Refining CEO Derk Hartman said. The sulphuric acid plant will be situated within the company's planned manganese refinery in the port city of Walvis Bay, supplying the country's uranium and copper mines. Both plants are expected to be commissioned by the end of 2027. Vedanta this week said it plans to recommission a sulphuric acid plant at its Skorpion zinc operations within the next four to six months to produce about 1,000 tons a day The facility has been idle since 2020 when the mine was placed on care and maintenance. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/namibia-boost-sulphuric-acid-production-critical-mineral-output-rises-2025-09-11/
