2025-09-10 21:13

SAO PAULO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The Brazilian animal feed industry will produce slightly less than expected in 2025 after a case of bird flu in the country affected chicken exports and curtailed demand, industry group Sindiracoes said on Wednesday. The group representing feed companies now estimates that animal feed and supplement production in Brazil will reach 93.7 million tons this year, compared to a projection of 94 million released in May, shortly before the first case of bird flu was recorded on a commercial chicken farm in Southern Brazil. Sign up here. Brazil's poultry industry is the main consumer of locally processed feed. "Demand was mainly impacted by the pace of (chicken) exports, which were restricted due to embargoes following an avian influenza outbreak," Ariovaldo Zani, the head of Sindiracoes, said. Chicken exports from Brazil, the world's largest supplier, could fall by as much as 2% in 2025, to 5.2 million metric tons, reflecting trade restrictions triggered by the outbreak, which the government controlled in a month. Although most importers have already lifted bans, top buyer China has not yet resumed buying Brazilian poultry products. Total animal feed production is still expected to increase by 2.9% year-over-year, Sindiracoes said, noting a drop in demand from the poultry industry will be partially offset by the additional demand from the beef industry. Despite the effect of Brazil's bird flu outbreak, demand from the poultry industry reached 18.9 million tons of feed in the first half of 2025, with marginal growth from the same period a year ago, Sindiracoes said. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/brazil-animal-feed-output-drop-after-bird-flu-outbreak-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 21:10

ORLANDO, Florida, Sept 10 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets Sign up here. By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Surprisingly soft U.S. producer price inflation figures on Wednesday spurred outside bets on a half a percentage point cut in U.S. interest rates next week, pushing Wall Street to new highs, lifting gold, and pulling bond yields lower. In my column today I look at how the combination of Fed rate cuts and sticky inflation will reduce 'real' U.S. rates and yields, spelling bad news for the dollar. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves Today's Talking Points: * Tech booming ... agAIn The extraordinary 43% surge in Oracle's share price thrusts the whole AI bubble debate back into the sharpest focus. This is not a penny stock, startup or meme stock, this is a long-established tech giant, which is now suddenly close to joining the exclusive $1 trillion market cap club. Oracle said on Tuesday it expects booked revenue at its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure business to exceed half a trillion dollars. Shares traded at nearly 50x estimated 12-month forward earnings on Wednesday, the highest since the dotcom crash, when its forward PE topped 120. * Fed Makeup The composition - and independence - of the Federal Reserve in President Donald Trump's second term continues to dominate Fed watchers' thinking, with the focus right now centered on Governor Lisa Cook and board nominee Stephen Miran. A federal judge has temporarily blocked Trump from firing Cook while Miran, currently a White House economic adviser, has cleared a U.S. Senate hurdle. Meanwhile, Trump on Wednesday lambasted Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling him "a total disaster, who doesn't have a clue" and insisting that the Fed slash interest rates. * Geopolitics Oil prices spiked on Wednesday after an Israeli attack in Qatar's capital Doha, and the Polish zloty had its worst day in over a month after Poland shot down suspected Russian drones in its airspace, the first time a member of NATO is known to have fired shots during Russia's war in Ukraine. The moves weren't too dramatic, but were a reminder to investors of the political risk in pockets around the world that can quickly spill over into asset prices and market volatility. 'Real' rate dip threatens to pull down dollar The dollar has been beaten down this year as investors have priced in a resumption of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle. But even if lower nominal rates are already reflected in the greenback's price, lower 'real' rates may not be. The greenback has gotten a bit of respite recently after recording its worst start to any calendar year since the era of free-floating exchange rates was introduced over 50 years ago. But it will face a renewed headwind if its real interest rate support evaporates, which currently seems likely. If the Fed pulls the rate cut trigger next week, as expected, it will be doing so with inflation around 3% - a percentage point above the central bank's 2% target. Further easing amid sticky prices means the gap between the U.S.'s inflation-adjusted or 'real' interest rate and those of its developed market peers should narrow – bad news for the dollar. 'REAL' PAIN The difference in inflation-adjusted or 'real' interest rates and yields is often thought to play the biggest role in determining the relative returns and purchasing power of currencies. Depending on what cut of annual inflation you use, the 'real' federal funds rate right now is somewhere in the 1.3-1.8% range. That's much higher than equivalent rates in the euro zone, Britain and most notably Japan, where the real policy rate is deeply negative. You can argue this hasn't prevented the dollar's eye-popping decline so far this year. But maybe that 'real' advantage at the short end helped avert an even steeper slide. What's going to happen if that support evaporates? It already has further out the curve. The dollar's 10% slide this year is thanks in no small part to the collapse in its positive real yield differentials in the five- and 10-year space, for example. These spreads are currently the narrowest since early 2022, but can shrink further. SIXTH TIME'S THE CHARM? Rates futures traders expect the Fed to cut rates by some 150 basis points by the end of next year, the most in the developed world but only really playing catch-up with most of these countries. On the other side of the 'real' rate equation is inflation, which remains sticky and above target across the developed world, but particularly in the United States – and that's before the tariff price shock truly hits. Economists at JP Morgan on Tuesday warned that, barring recession, 2026 will likely be the sixth year in a row expectations of inflation returning to target will not be met. They note that policymakers' inflation forecasting record since 2021 has been "less than exemplary," to put it charitably. They reckon central banks have, on average, underestimated core inflation over the period by about one percentage point and overshot their targets by 1.5 percentage points. The Bank of England has the worst record, but given the Fed's global prominence, its poor marks are what really stand out. The U.S. central bank's inflation forecasts have missed by an average of 1.3 percentage point over this period, and it has overshot its target by roughly 2 percentage points. Of course, maybe the sixth time will be the charm, and inflation will ease in line with Fed forecasts next year. The soft U.S. labor market appears quite a bit mushier following Tuesday's announcement of a record downward revision of payrolls growth. And if unemployment rises, consumer demand, economic activity, and price pressures will surely cool. But for now, inflation concerns still appear to be simmering. U.S. consumer inflation expectations are, by some measures, closer to 5% than the Fed's 2% goal, financial conditions are the loosest in years, and monetary and fiscal stimulus look to be coming down the pike. Put everything together, and you have the recipe for lower U.S. real rates and more dollar pain. What could move markets tomorrow? Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 21:01

JAKARTA, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Floods on Indonesia's holiday island of Bali have killed at least nine this week and affected 600 people, blocking off major roads in the capital and disrupting a busy travel destination, officials said on Wednesday. Continuous heavy rains between Tuesday evening and Wednesday caused the floods and killed five people in Bali's capital Denpasar, Abdul Muhari, the spokesperson of the country's disaster mitigation agency said in a statement. Sign up here. Four more people were killed in the regions of Jembrana, Gianyar, and Badung, Abdul added. Two people were still missing. Out of 600 people affected, nearly 200 have been evacuated to schools and mosques because their houses were still flooded, the agency said. The floods brought down two buildings in Denpasar, said I Nyoman Sidakarya, the head of the island's search and rescue agency. Access to the island's international airport near Denpasar was limited as only trucks could use the roads, he added. Videos on social media, which Reuters could not authenticate, showed floods on major roads leading to complete gridlock. About 200 rescuers have been dispatched, Nyoman said. Heavy rain also led to flooding in Indonesia's East Nusa Tenggara where four people have been killed, the disaster mitigation agency said. Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto expressed his condolences and instructed the head of national disaster agency to fly to Bali to lead the emergency response and ensure people's basic needs are met. The agency had distributed tents, food, blankets, mattresses, water pumps, and rubber boats. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/floods-indonesias-bali-kill-least-nine-officials-say-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 20:55

WASHINGTON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Democratic U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday urged President Donald Trump to cancel a plan to make surplus plutonium from Cold War-era atomic bombs available as a fuel for nuclear power operators, saying it is a proliferation risk. Trump signed executive orders in May that ordered the government to halt much of its existing program to dilute and dispose of surplus plutonium, and instead provide it as a fuel for advanced nuclear technologies. Sign up here. Last month Reuters reported the administration plans to make available about 20 metric tons of that plutonium from dismantled nuclear warheads as a potential fuel for reactors. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT Plutonium is a fissile material that could be used by militants to make nuclear weapons. The chances are low, but it is possible. The lawmakers say that the transfer of government-held plutonium to private industry would increase the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation around the world. If the U.S. uses plutonium from old weapons for reactors, the reasoning goes, it cannot effectively discourage other countries from doing the same with their own plutonium, supplies of which can also be built by re-processing waste from nuclear power plants. KEY QUOTE "Trump wants to take enough plutonium for 2,000 atomic bombs and hand it over to private industry just to make his rich buddies happy," said Senator Edward Markey, who signed the letter with two Democrats in the U.S. House. "He might as well sell nuclear weapons at Costco. If this material shows up in Iran, we know who's to blame." The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Trump's executive orders also called for a halt of the government's program to dispose of surplus plutonium by diluting it and burying it. Supporters of using radioactive plutonium in reactors say militants would likely harm themselves by handling it and that only nuclear workers can handle it safely. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-lawmakers-urge-trump-axe-plutonium-fuel-plan-over-proliferation-fears-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 20:50

TSX ends up 0.4% at 29,179.39 Eclipses Tuesday's record closing high Energy gains 1.9% as oil settles up 1.7% Materials group adds 1.9% TORONTO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index rose to another record high on Wednesday, as higher commodity prices boosted resource shares one day after the announcement of the second-largest M&A deal ever in the mining sector. The S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) , opens new tab ended up 116.38 points, or 0.4%, at 29,179.39, eclipsing Tuesday's record closing high. Sign up here. "It's nice to see this rotation with a lot more excitement around the commodity space," said Greg Taylor, chief investment officer at PenderFund Capital Management. "Commodities are definitely acting well." The price of U.S. oil settled 1.7% higher at $63.67 a barrel, boosting the energy sector (.SPTTEN) , opens new tab. It was up 1.9%, helped by a gain of 4.9% for Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) , opens new tab. Cenovus does not plan to raise its bid for oil sands producer MEG Energy (MEG.TO) , opens new tab despite a higher offer from Strathcona Resources (SCR.TO) , opens new tab, its CEO told Bloomberg News. The materials group (.GSPTTMT) , opens new tab, which includes metal mining shares, added 1.6% as copper prices climbed and the price of gold held near a record high. Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation supported expectations the Federal Reserve will resume interest rate cuts at a policy decision next week. The $53  billion planned merger between London-listed miner Anglo American (AAL.L) , opens new tab and Canada's Teck Resources (TECKb.TO) , opens new tab announced on Tuesday "The pain trade is higher because a lot of people are bearish or in cash, and the market going up is making it more painful for people," Taylor said. Heavily weighted financials added 0.4% but six of the 10 major sectors ended lower, including a decline of 0.6% for technology. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/tsx-extends-record-setting-run-resource-shares-climb-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 20:47

Producer prices fall unexpectedly in August Oracle's forecast boosts chipmakers, power supply companies Barclays, Deutsche Bank raise S&P 500 2025 year-end target S&P 500 +0.30%, Nasdaq +0.03%, Dow -0.48% Sept 10 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched record-high closes on Wednesday, as Oracle surged and cooler-than-expected inflation data supported expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week. Oracle (ORCL.N) , opens new tab soared 36% in its biggest one-day percentage gain since 1992 after the tech company pointed to a demand surge from AI firms for its cloud services. Sign up here. Its stock market value reached $922 billion, leapfrogging the values of Eli Lilly (LLY.N) , opens new tab, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) , opens new tab and Walmart (WMT.N) , opens new tab, and approaching Tesla's (TSLA.O) , opens new tab $1.12 trillion market value. Artificial intelligence-related chip stocks also rallied, with Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab up 3.8%, Broadcom (AVGO.O) , opens new tab jumping 10% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) , opens new tab climbing 2.4%. The PHLX chip index (.SOX) , opens new tab rose 2.3% to a record high. Data center power suppliers also benefited, with Constellation Energy (CEG.O) , opens new tab, Vistra (VST.N) , opens new tab and GE Vernova (GEV.N) , opens new tab all rising more than 6%. Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab, viewed by many investors as lagging in the race to dominate AI, declined 3.2%, sliding for a fourth straight session. A cooler-than-expected producer prices reading provided additional momentum as traders shored up their bets on interest-rate cuts this year. Recent labor market data has confirmed the U.S. jobs market is in a slowdown. Traders fully expect the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its policy meeting next week, with a 10% chance the central bank could cut by 50 basis points, CME's FedWatch tool showed. The S&P 500 has now climbed about 11% in 2025, while the Nasdaq has rallied about 13%. "The fundamentals remain very strong in the equity markets, domestically. But we also have to acknowledge that valuations are extended at this point and serve as some natural tension to a continued upward trajectory," said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Billings, Montana. The S&P 500 climbed 0.30% to end the session at 6,532.04 points, closing with a record high for the second straight day. The Nasdaq gained 0.03% to 21,886.06 points for its third consecutive record-high close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.48% to 45,490.92 points. Six of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes declined, led lower by consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) , opens new tab, down 1.58%, followed by a 1.06% loss in consumer staples (.SPLRCS) , opens new tab. Investors will now focus on consumer prices data due on Thursday, for insights on where U.S. inflation is headed. "Combining the softer data (PPI figures) with the Fed's increased emphasis on the labor market side and the growing trend we've seen in downward revisions to the monthly employment data - all support the expectation for a rate cut," said Jordan Rizzuto, CIO at GammaRoad Capital Partners. In a setback for the White House, a federal judge on Tuesday temporarily blocked U.S. President Donald Trump from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Barclays and Deutsche Bank raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500, citing stronger corporate earnings, resilient U.S. economic growth and optimism around artificial intelligence. Synopsys (SNPS.O) , opens new tab tumbled 36% in its biggest one-day decline on record after the chip design software provider missed Wall Street estimates for quarterly revenue. Rival Cadence Design Systems (CDNS.O) , opens new tab fell 6.4%. Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) , opens new tab by a 1.5-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 19 new highs and 8 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 112 new highs and 72 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was relatively heavy, with 17.2 billion shares traded, compared with an average of 16.0 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions. https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-nasdaq-notch-record-high-closes-oracle-soars-ai-optimism-2025-09-10/