2025-09-10 04:33
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland Rising equities and falling bond prices portray the market's sanguine view on monetary policy, with a rate cut at next week's Fed meeting not only seen as a sure thing but also having decent odds for being a super-sized one. Sign up here. Wall Street closed at fresh record highs overnight, Taiwan's benchmark (.TWII) , opens new tab is vaulting to a new all-time peak, and Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab is ticking back towards Tuesday's unprecedented levels. Although it looks like Donald Trump won't have his economic adviser Stephen Miran on the Fed's board of governors for the September 16-17 meeting - after a judge temporarily blocked the U.S. President from removing Governor Lisa Cook - the undeniable weakness of the labour market means that policy easing is imminent. What is in question, though, is how much still-sticky inflation complicates the Fed's rate-cut trajectory, with markets getting two days of crucial data in the form of PPI today and CPI tomorrow. Heated inflation readings would surely restart murmurs about dreaded stagflation, making the Fed's next steps precarious. Currently the market has 66 basis points of easing priced by year-end, and 7% odds for a 50 basis point cut next Wednesday. The Fed remains the dominant story across markets globally, although European investors need to keep one eye on geopolitical developments after NATO-member Poland for the first time shot down apparent Russian drones that it said encroached on its airspace during an attack on western Ukraine. French politics, of course, is another focus, with deeply unpopular President Emmanuel Macron's naming of 39-year-old loyalist Sebastien Lecornu as his fifth prime minister in less than two years begging the question of how long either man can cling to power. The outcome of the ECB's two-day meeting that starts today is more certain, with economists all but united in expecting rates to stay steady. A month ago, economists were split on the chances of another cut, but unemployment at a record low while inflation hovers close to target has changed those dovish minds. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: -US PPI (August) -Sweden monthly GDP (July) -Norway, Denmark CPI (both August) -Italy, Spain, Greece industrial output (all July) https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-09-10/
2025-09-10 03:04
MUMBAI, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is set to see choppy price action at the open, caught between U.S. President Donald Trump’s optimistic outlook on trade talks with New Delhi and his push for Europe to slap steep tariffs on India over Russian oil imports. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 88.08-88.12 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with 88.1025 in the previous session. Sign up here. Trump said that Washington and New Delhi are continuing negotiations to address trade barriers, adding that he is certain there will be no difficulty reaching a successful outcome. His remarks suggest that tariff tensions between the two countries could eventually be resolved through dialogue. At the same time, Trump urged the European Union to impose tariffs of up to 100% on China and India over its purchases of Russian oil, which has been a major cause of friction in its relations with Washington. The U.S. has already imposed punitive tariffs on Indian goods - among the steepest levies on any American trading partner. The progress of U.S.-India trade negotiations is seen a key driver for the rupee’s direction. The currency has underperformed its Asian peers due to the tariffs and a breakthrough would provide much-needed relief for the rupee. Absent that, further weakness looks likely, especially after the rupee slid to a all-time low against the dollar last Friday. Meanwhile, Indian equities were set for a higher opening on Wednesday, though traders noted the move was more in line with the advance in U.S. equity futures and Asian peers rather than any positive read-through from the latest tariff headlines. "It’s very hard to call today, and I am not sure what to make of the news headlines," a currency trader at a bank said. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 88.20/88.25; onshore one-month forward premium at 12.75 paise ** Dollar index down at 97.77 ** Brent crude futures up 0.8% at $66.9 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.08% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $19.9 million worth of Indian shares on September 8 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $236.7 million worth of Indian bonds on September 5 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-faces-tug-of-war-open-trump-mixes-tariff-threats-with-trade-talks-2025-09-10/
2025-09-09 23:56
HOUSTON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The latter half of September may see more tropical storms than much of this year's hurricane season so far, said forecasters from Colorado State University on Tuesday. Since the season began on June 1, there have been only six named tropical systems, one of which was Hurricane Erin. That is less than half of the 16 named storms researchers from the CSU's Tropical Meteorology Project predicted in early August. Sign up here. The researchers said a high pressure system over the Azores and high altitude troughs have pushed subtropical dry air into the tropical Atlantic, reducing conditions for storm formation. Also, tropical waves from Africa, which can seed storms, have been weaker, further reducing the chances a cyclone is spawned. But the weather patterns that have hindered storm development are expected to weaken by mid-September, raising the possibility for more Atlantic activity before the season ends on November 30. The next seven to 10 days will likely remain quiet in the Atlantic, with strong vertical wind shear and moisture patterns unfavorable to tropical cyclones, the researchers said. "However, after that point, vertical wind shear is forecast by (European forecasters) to weaken substantially, potentially yielding much more Atlantic favorable tropical cyclone conditions later this month." CSU, in line with other forecasters, is still predicting three major hurricanes with wind speeds over 111 mph (179 kph) this season. It is expecting eight hurricanes in all out of a total of 16 named tropical storms. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/late-september-storms-may-liven-up-hurricane-season-say-colorado-state-2025-09-09/
2025-09-09 22:57
LOS ANGELES, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Roughly 67 shipping containers fell from a berthed ship into the water at Southern California's Port of Long Beach on Tuesday morning, emergency responders at the nation's second-busiest seaport said. No injuries were reported and no other port operations were affected. Sign up here. The containers fell from the 837-foot (255 m) Portugal-flagged Mississippi while it was berthed at the Pier G container terminal. A smaller barge connected to the vessel was damaged by some of the fallen containers, according to Unified Command, which includes the U.S. Coast Guard, the Long Beach fire and police departments, the Port of Long Beach and the Army Corps of Engineers. The Mississippi arrived in Long Beach from China's Yantian port, according to LSEG data. Cargo operations at the terminal were temporarily suspended as crews worked to secure the containers, Port of Long Beach public information officer Art Marroquin said. The incident is being investigated, Marroquin added. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/dozens-containers-tumble-into-water-california-port-2025-09-09/
2025-09-09 22:47
SAO PAULO, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Tuesday that environmental agency Ibama should be satisfied with the results of an emergency drill done by state-run oil firm Petrobras in the country's Foz do Amazonas basin. "Petrobras has already carried out the test. Ibama should be satisfied with the results of the research, and Ibama will now grant us the license to carry out the first experiment," Lula said in an interview with local news channel Rede Amazonica, speaking ahead of Ibama's official assessment. Sign up here. For Petroleo Brasileiro SA, as the company is formally known, the drill is the final stage of an environmental licensing process it hopes will result in a permit to drill an exploratory oil and gas well in the region. Despite Lula's claims, Ibama's technical staff has yet to finish a report on the test and whether it was a success, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The report needs to be completed before the head of Ibama, Rodrigo Agostinho, makes a final decision to grant or deny the license. Ibama's staff had previously recommended that the body deny the license, but was overruled by Agostinho, who gave the go-ahead for the emergency drill. In a statement, Ibama said the results of the drill are still being analyzed. Once the analyses are complete, Ibama said it will prepare a technical report on whether Petrobras' proposed emergency plan is feasible. There is no deadline for this next step, the agency added, citing the drill's complexity and the amount of information involved. Petrobras did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Lula has long pressured Ibama to grant Petrobras a license to drill in the environmentally sensitive offshore region, which is considered the best prospect for the company to expand its oil and gas reserves. The oil industry believes there is significant potential for discovering large oil and gas reserves in the Foz do Amazonas basin, based on major discoveries in geologically similar regions in Suriname and Guyana. However, there is resistance from segments of society and within the government itself, due to the socio-environmental risks tied to exploration. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/brazil-environment-agency-should-be-satisfied-with-petrobras-test-key-offshore-2025-09-09/
2025-09-09 22:45
Scania, MAN, Volvo, Renault and DAF seen meeting 2025 emission targets EU rules require 15% cut in emissions by 2025 versus 2019 Daimler Truck, Iveco are lagging but can still comply STOCKHOLM, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Most European truckmakers are on track to meet the European Union's 2025 emissions targets, despite electric trucks making up only a small share of sales, a report from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) showed on Wednesday. Heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) - which are almost entirely diesel-powered - account for a quarter of Europe's road transport emissions. Sign up here. Under EU rules, manufacturers must cut average CO2 emissions by 15% in 2025 compared to 2019 levels. Unlike carmakers, however, truckmakers can comply with the emission regulations by improving diesel efficiency and using regulatory flexibilities rather than selling large volumes of electric vehicles. Five of the seven largest EU truckmakers - DAF, Scania, MAN, Volvo Trucks and Renault Trucks - are on course to meet the target without further improvements, the ICCT said. Daimler Truck and Iveco are lagging but could avoid penalties with modest changes. "After more than a decade of preparation, the regulation is working," Felipe Rodriquez, programme director at the ICCT, told Reuters. Scania, along with Volvo Trucks, met the 2025 target two years ago, largely by cutting emissions from internal combustion engine (ICE) trucks. Iveco would need to sell about 200 zero-emission trucks and make other changes to comply, which Rodriquez said was realistic. "If they get their act together, I think they will not have to pay any penalties in 2025," he said. Only 14,000 of the 360,000 trucks sold in Europe last year were zero-emission, compared to millions of cars. Rodriquez said an industry-wide ramp-up was necessary. "You're going to run out of options to continue tweaking the internal combustion engine, and the zero-emission trucks will have to come in greater volumes," he said. On Thursday, truck industry representatives meet three EU commissioners to discuss electrification. On Friday, car executives are due to meet Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to debate the 2035 phase-out of combustion-engine cars. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/diesel-tweaks-help-truckmakers-hit-eu-climate-targets-2025-09-09/
