2025-09-09 10:26
MEXICO CITY, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Mexico expects its budget deficit to fall slightly in 2026 to 4.10%, as GDP growth is seen ticking up, the finance ministry said during the government's budget presentation. Mexico's government has been under pressure to narrow the deficit, which it now expects will close 2025 at 4.32%, while maintaining a pledge to boost social programs and shore up the finances of highly indebted state oil firm Pemex. Sign up here. "Although the international environment still presents risks stemming from uncertainty and trade tensions, it also opens up opportunities that we must seize," Finance Minister Edgar Amador said during the presentation late on Monday. The government forecasts Latin America's second-largest economy to expand between 1.8% and 2.8% - an increase of 1.3 percentage points on both ends of the range. That is rosier than both the IMF's growth forecast, which sees a 1.4% expansion in 2026, and the Bank of Mexico's most recent forecast of 1.1% growth. The ministry also put its inflation forecast for end-2026 at 3.0%, meeting the target set by the Bank of Mexico, which sees inflation converging to target in the third quarter next year. Along with a slowdown in inflation, the ministry points to a relaxation of the country's monetary policy. "The Bank of Mexico's benchmark interest rate is expected to close at 7.25%, 75 basis points below the original forecast," the budget draft projected for 2025, adding that the rate is expected to continue declining to 6% through 2026. Banxico, as the Bank of Mexico is known, brought its benchmark interest rate to its lowest level in three years last month with a 25 basis points cut that brought the rate to 7.75% in a divided decision. Pemex is slated to receive some 263.5 billion Mexican pesos ($14.14 billion) from the government in 2026 to help the firm meet its debt and loan payments, according to the document. After President Claudia Sheinbaum said last week that her government was considering imposing tariffs on countries such as China that have no trade agreement with Mexico, the budget proposal said the country's 'General Import Tax' would be reviewed for 2026 to encourage national development, without giving any detail. The draft budget also announced new "healthy taxes" to serve as disincentives for unhealthy products, which would boost taxes on products like soft drinks, video games, and nicotine pouches. The budget proposal will now be debated by lawmakers in Congress, where Sheinbaum's party and its allies hold strong majorities in both chambers. ($1 = 18.6348 Mexican pesos) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-sees-budget-deficit-lower-2026-growth-ticks-up-despite-uncertainty-2025-09-09/
2025-09-09 10:25
MUMBAI, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The rupee advanced on Tuesday, supported by weaker U.S. jobs data that firmed up expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, before losing traction around the 88 per dollar level. The rupee has been among the worst performing Asian currencies this year, pressured by the punitive U.S. tariffs on Indian goods that have dented sentiment and fuelled sustained dollar demand. Sign up here. The rupee rose 0.18% to 88.1025 against 88.2650 on Friday, when it fell to a record low of 88.36. The Indian FX market was closed on Monday. Most Asian currencies traded higher on Tuesday except for Indonesian rupiah, which was down 1.04% after the abrupt ouster of the nation's influential finance minister. The dollar index was down 0.08%. On the session, the rupee briefly breached the 88 mark, hitting an intraday high of 87.9550. The 87.95 level, which marks a prior all-time low, remains a key threshold. "While softer U.S. data and potential Fed policy shifts could provide some support to the rupee, India’s trade and tariff headwinds may cap any recovery, keeping upside risks intact," said Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex. Weak U.S. jobs growth in August has heightened expectations that the U.S. central bank will cut rates by at least 25 basis points next week, with total cuts of around 75 basis points expected for the remainder of the year. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/tariff-worries-stall-rupee-rally-after-us-jobs-data-boost-2025-09-09/
2025-09-09 10:06
Sept 9 (Reuters) - Sterling gained against the dollar and the euro on Tuesday as traders slightly raised the odds of an outsized rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week while political developments in France weighed on the euro. Sterling was up 0.3% at $1.3585, hovering near its strongest level since mid-August. Sign up here. Investors are awaiting U.S. job revisions data due later in the day which could point to the jobs market in worse shape than initially thought, shoring up the case for even deeper Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. "Markets are positioning for next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Bank of England meetings, where the Fed will likely signal more cuts this year and the BOE will likely hint at delaying cuts to 2026," Philip Wee, senior FX strategist at DBS, said in a note. Money markets have fully priced in a 25-basis point cut by the Fed but an uptick on the odds of an outsized 50-basis point cut weighed on the dollar and pushed it down to a near seven-week low against a basket of major peers on Tuesday. The dollar index was last down 0.1% at 97.26. The euro, meanwhile, slipped 0.2% against sterling to 0.8662. The ouster of French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou on Monday kept the euro on the defensive even as analysts say the developments are not sufficient to trigger a fall in the common currency. Looking ahead, though, analysts reckon that sterling could remain sensitive to fiscal developments in the UK, worries over which have cooled since long-dated gilt yields climbed to their highest levels since 1998 last week. Sterling is likely to be "particularly susceptible to jitters at the long end of the curve", said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank. British finance minister Rachel Reeves is scheduled to announce the budget on November 26. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-firms-fed-cut-bets-weigh-dollar-political-worries-bog-down-euro-2025-09-09/
2025-09-09 09:11
Toss to launch finance app in Australia this year Sees overseas growth eventually outpacing home market Plans won-based stablecoin once rules allow SEOUL, Sept 9 (Reuters) - South Korean fintech unicorn Toss plans to launch its "all-in-one" finance app in Australia this year and expand to other markets, and aims to issue a won-based stablecoin once regulations allow, said founder and CEO Lee Seung-gun. Toss has shown that a startup can take on big banks and brokers, said the dentist-turned-entrepreneur, who predicts overseas growth to eventually outpace growth at home. Sign up here. "We proved in Korea that a startup can compete head-on with entrenched players," Lee said in an interview on Tuesday. "A similar model can work globally, especially in countries where users juggle multiple bank accounts or fintech apps. We want to bring them into one seamless experience." Toss has attracted more than 30 million users in South Korea since its founding in 2015, Lee said. Its first major overseas push will be in Australia, where a fragmented banking system and open-banking rules allow room for a one-stop platform, he said. The fintech has set up an Australian unit which plans to start core services such as peer-to-peer money transfer by year-end. It is reviewing other territories, with Singapore serving mainly as a regional hub rather than a retail market, Lee said. "Our long-term vision is not another financial holding company, but a global internet company built on financial services," he said. Reuters reported in July, citing people with knowledge of the listing plans, that Toss aims to list in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2026 with a valuation of more than $10 billion. Some market watchers said at that time the valuation could exceed $15 billion, which would make the IPO the biggest in the U.S. by a South Korean company since 2021. The unicorn - a startup valued at over $1 billion - has been approached by global funds that view it as one of the few fintechs to deliver on the super app concept, Lee said without commenting on potential listing plans or valuation. At home, Toss is in a "perfect position" to lead in the creation of a digitally native form of the Korean won, Lee said, as the government works to introduce legislation to ensure stringent oversight and consumer protection. The financial regulator is set to draft a bill on the regulatory framework within this year in line with a government campaign pledge to allow companies to issue stablecoin - a digital currency the value of which is linked to another asset such as gold or the won. "We will issue and distribute won-based stablecoin - that I can say for sure," Lee said. Toss is in regular discussion with authorities to prepare the infrastructure needed, he said. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/south-korean-fintech-toss-plans-global-push-starting-australia-aims-issue-won-2025-09-09/
2025-09-09 09:04
Stocks get lift from Fed easing expectations France political upheaval in focus, markets unrattled Investors weigh 50bp cut, look to U.S. CPI, PPI releases for clues Political turmoil in many countries complicates outlook for FX bond markets SINGAPORE/LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - European stocks stayed in positive territory on Tuesday, with rising expectations of a rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve offsetting political uncertainty in France following the government's collapse. Europe's STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) , opens new tab was up 0.1% while Asian shares (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab added 0.9%. French blue chips (.FCHI) , opens new tab were up 0.1%, while the country's government bonds were steady. Sign up here. S&P futures (.EScv1) , opens new tab ticked 0.1% higher and Nasdaq futures (.NQcv1) , opens new tab rose 0.2%, which would see the tech-focused index surpass a record high scaled in the previous session. French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking his fifth prime minister in less than two years after opposition parties united to kick out centre-right Prime Minister Francois Bayrou over his unpopular plans for budget tightening. Bayrou, handed a 364-194 defeat in a parliamentary confidence vote on Monday, will officially offer his resignation to Macron on Tuesday. The government's collapse was already largely priced in, and Macron has so far ruled out calls for a snap parliamentary or presidential election, which the far-right National Rally has called for. "If we were to avoid elections, clearly that would be more of a market positive than the alternative, though it doesn't do much to alter the rather perilous fiscal trajectory that France remains on," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. "It does remove a little bit of risk in the short-term, which is why markets are by and large shrugging all of that off this morning." French 10-year bonds came under modest pressure, pushing yields up around 1.7 basis points to 3.489%, broadly in line with the rest of the government debt market. "The tail risk is having a new presidential election before 2027 and a prime minister whose policies are not well received by financial markets," said Kevin Thozet, investment committee member at Carmignac. "Markets are saying the probability of this happening is very low, so no reason to panic." The euro hit a more than six-week high of $1.1756 and was last 0.1% lower on the day. FED IN FOCUS Breathing new life into the equities rally were expectations that the Fed will cut rates when it meets next week, following Friday's weak U.S. jobs report. While consumer and producer price inflation data are due in the week ahead, investors are betting that a 25-basis-point cut this month is a done deal, with focus now on whether the Fed could deliver a larger 50-bp move. The U.S. Labor Department will also report a preliminary revision estimate to the employment level for the 12 months through March later in the day. "They are likely to cut anywhere between half a million and 750,000 jobs off the payrolls count for the 12 months to March, if you get a figure like that it's only going to spur that dovish repricing a little bit further," said Pepperstone's Brown. Markets are now pricing in an over 11% chance the Fed could lower rates by 50bp this month, compared to zero a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Elsewhere, Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab climbed past the key 44,000 mark for the first time, aided by a weaker yen and following the resignation of the country's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, a fiscal hawk. U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods including cars and auto parts are set to be lowered by September 16, Japan's tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said in an X post on Tuesday. POLITICAL TURMOIL Renewed uncertainty over the political landscape across various economies has rattled currency and bond markets in the past few sessions. Along with upheaval in France, investors are also mulling Ishiba's resignation in Japan, a heavy election defeat for Argentina President Javier Milei's ruling party in local elections and the abrupt replacement of Indonesia's finance minister. Still, losses across currencies were capped by a broadly weaker dollar, while most bond markets have since largely held steady. The yen was last 0.4% stronger at 146.90 per dollar, clawing back its losses from the previous session. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield , which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, languished near a five-month low at 3.513%. The benchmark 10-year yield rose 3 bps but was still near a five-month trough, last at 4.072%. In commodities, oil prices gained on Tuesday after OPEC+ decided to increase production by less than what market participants had anticipated. Brent crude futures were up 1.1% at $66.23 per barrel. Spot gold earlier touched a fresh record high of $3,659.1 an ounce, buoyed by expectations of imminent Fed cuts. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-2-2025-09-09/
2025-09-09 07:11
Brent and U.S. crude rise about 1% Threat of tighter sanctions on Russian oil also underpins market China to carry on stockpiling oil in 2026, Gunvor official says LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Oil extended gains on Tuesday, supported by the latest oil output hike from OPEC+ being smaller than anticipated, expectations that China will continue stockpiling oil and concerns over potential new sanctions on Russia. Eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies agreed on Sunday to raise production from October by 137,000 barrels per day, lower than the increases of about 550,000 bpd they made for September and August. Sign up here. Brent crude rose 53 cents, or 0.8%, to $66.55 a barrel by 1200 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 54 cents, or 0.9%, to $62.80. "Prices are holding up amid speculation that production will not rise by the amount the eight members have allowed themselves, and not least the fact China according to data has been buying around 0.5 million barrels per day towards stockpiling," said Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank. China's stockpiling of oil, which has helped soak up excess production this year, is likely to continue at a similar rate in 2026, the chief strategist for commodity trading house Gunvor said on Monday. Crude is also drawing support from the reduced amount of unused production capacity in OPEC+, said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS. A drop in spare capacity limits the group's ability to cover for sudden supply shocks and tends to support prices. "The realization that the October OPEC+ supply increase could be 60,000-70,000 barrels per day is one factor, the other is that OPEC+ spare capacity is much smaller than many thought," he said of the reasons for the rally. Speculation of more sanctions on Russia after the country's biggest air attack on Ukraine set fire to a government building in Kyiv also supported prices. U.S. President Donald Trump said he was ready to move to a second phase of restrictions. Further sanctions on Russia would diminish its oil supply to global markets, which could support higher oil prices. Also in focus is the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve, which meets next week, will cut interest rates. Lower rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-modest-opec-output-hike-russia-supply-concern-2025-09-09/
