Warning!
Blogs   >   FX Daily Updates
FX Daily Updates
All Posts

2025-09-08 21:02

Labour and the left projected to win majority of seats Jonas Gahr Stoere expected to remain PM if projection holds Labour to face tough choices on oil investments, wealth fund OSLO, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Norway's minority Labour Party government held a narrow election lead on Monday, projections by local broadcasters showed, in a national ballot dominated by concerns over rising living costs and wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Projections by broadcasters NRK and TV2 after polls had closed showed the left-wing bloc of Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere's Labour and four smaller parties winning 89 seats, above the 85 needed for a majority. Sign up here. If official results confirm the early readings, Stoere, 65, would remain in power in a minority government that would be heavily reliant on smaller parties to pass major legislation such as fiscal budgets. To get their backing, he would likely face tough discussions over issues such as tax hikes for the wealthy, future oil exploration, and divestments by Norway's $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund from Israeli companies. "It looks like Stoere will continue as prime minister," Jonas Stein, an associate professor in political science at the University of Tromsoe, told Reuters. "But with a much more difficult parliamentary situation, in which he is dependent on five parties to govern. The Progress Party is having a great election. But not enough to win power," he said. Right-wing parties headed by the anti-immigration populist Progress and the Conservatives of former Prime Minister Erna Solberg, 64, were on track for 80 seats, the projections showed. Voter concerns over the conflict in Ukraine and an aggressive Russia, which shares a border with Norway in the Arctic, have given a boost to the left in recent months after former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, 66, joined Stoere's cabinet. Many Norwegians saw the decision as a safeguard in case of a new armed conflict, given Stoltenberg's decade-long tenure as head of the western military alliance. Some 59% of Norwegians believe a new war in Europe is likely within the next decade, up from 55% last year, according to a survey by the Peace Research Institute Oslo. TAXES, ISRAEL, OIL Within the right-wing bloc, early projections indicated a shift further to the right, with the Progress Party of Sylvi Listhaug, 47, making its best-ever showing in an election. The party was projected to win at least 43 seats, more than double its current total and making it the country's second-largest party. Listhaug, a onetime firebrand who cites Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher as her role models, campaigned on what she said was wasteful public spending on areas such as international aid and subsidies to green energy. Her party's promise of large tax cuts appeared to have resonated with many voters. Still, none of the right-wing parties that are expected to win seats have sought the backing of U.S. President Donald Trump or his movement, unlike some of their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Also looming large in the final weeks of the election was the war in Gaza, with Stoere's smaller allies calling for Norway's $2 trillion sovereign fund, the world's largest and a major source of the country's wealth, to divest further from Israeli companies. Since June 30, the fund has divested from more than two dozen Israeli companies, following media reports that it had built a stake in a jet engine company that provides maintenance for Israeli fighter jets. Some parties on the left have questioned whether the country is in effect contributing to violations of international law by investing in companies active in the occupied Palestinian territories. Also at stake in the election is the future path of the oil industry in Norway, which replaced Gazprom as Europe's top gas supplier after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Norway's role is set to grow further as the European Union plans to phase out the use of Russian gas by 2027, but some of Stoere's junior allies want to gradually phase out oil exploration, which could limit new gas fields. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norways-ruling-labour-holds-narrow-election-lead-2025-09-08/

0
0
3

2025-09-08 20:57

Dollar index falls but greenback gains on yen after Japan PM resigns Stocks rise globally as traders eye US September rate cut Politics roils investors in Argentina, Indonesia, France Rate outlook, US inflation data in focus this week NEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - MSCI's global equities gauge rose on Monday, while U.S. Treasury yields declined with the dollar on the prospects of lower interest rates and investors around the world grappled with political uncertainty in countries from Japan and Indonesia to France and Argentina. A heavy election defeat for Argentina President Javier Milei's ruling party in Buenos Aires province sent the Argentine peso to a record low. Sign up here. In afternoon trading, the peso fell 3% against the dollar, while the benchmark stock index [.MERV , opens new tab] fell 13.25% and an index of Argentine stocks traded on U.S. exchanges [.BKAR , opens new tab] lost 18.6%. Some of the country's international bonds saw their biggest falls since they began trading in 2020 after a $65 billion restructuring deal. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned on Sunday, ushering in a potentially lengthy period of uncertainty at a shaky moment for the world's fourth-largest economy, prompting the yen to fall against the dollar. France's fourth prime minister in less than two years, Francois Bayrou, lost a confidence vote on Monday, and parliament the government in the euro zone's second-largest economy over its plans to tame the ballooning national debt, deepening a political crisis. And in Indonesia, stocks (.JKSE) , opens new tab gave up early gains to finish down more than 1%, while the rupiah rose after Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati was ousted in a cabinet shake-up. U.S. investors were focused on the prospects for easier monetary policy, however, after Friday's weaker than expected U.S. labor data for August appeared to seal the case for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month. "We had a pretty disappointing employment report on Friday. This week, it's all about inflation," said Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene. "Markets are kind of looking past some of the weaker economic data because it likely means that the Fed is going to have more space to cut interest rates this year." GLOBAL STOCK INDEX RISES MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 3.67 points, or 0.38%, to 959.38. Earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index closed up 0.52%. "The weakening dollar against most currencies is boosting returns in foreign stock indices," said Gene Goldman, Chief Investment Officer at Cetera Investment Management in the U.S. "There are country-by-country concerns. But a lot of news in France is priced in and Japan's prime minister could be replaced by a much more dovish, market-friendly prime minister." On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab closed up 114.09 points, or 0.25%, to 45,514.95, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 13.65 points, or 0.21%, to 6,495.15 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab rose 98.31 points, or 0.45%, to 21,798.70 for a record closing high. In currencies, the U.S. dollar extended Friday's losses after the jobs report reinforced rate cut expectations, while the yen fell broadly after Japan's political news. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.42% to 97.46. The euro rose 0.36% on the dollar to $1.1759. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.04% to 147.44. Sterling strengthened 0.29% to $1.3545 while the Canadian dollar strengthened 0.17% against the greenback to C$1.38 and the Swedish crown strengthened 0.75% versus the dollar. In U.S. Treasuries, the prospect of interest rate cuts and optimism that U.S. inflation data due later in the week would be benign pushed down yields for the fourth straight day, to their lowest level since April. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 3.9 basis points to 4.047%, from 4.086% late on Friday while the 30-year bond yield fell 7.7 basis points to 4.697% from 4.774%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 1 basis point to 3.497%, from 3.507%. Oil prices regained some of last week's losses, after OPEC+'s output hike was seen as modest and due to concerns over the possibility of more sanctions on Russian crude. U.S. crude settled up 0.63%, or 39 cents, at $62.26 a barrel and Brent ended at $66.02 per barrel, a rise of 0.79% or 52 cents on the day. Gold surged past $3,600 an ounce for the first time on Monday, as the soft U.S. labor data reinforced expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates. Spot gold rose 1.37% to $3,635.26 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.66% to $3,637.10 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-8-graphic-2025-09-08/

0
0
3

2025-09-08 20:51

ConocoPhillips to buy 1 mtpa of LNG for 20 years NextDecade completes commercialization of Train 5 Company expects positive FID on Train 5 in Q4 Sept 8 (Reuters) - U.S. oil and gas producer ConocoPhillips (COP.N) , opens new tab will purchase 1.0 million tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas from NextDecade's (NEXT.O) , opens new tab Rio Grande export facility in Texas for 20 years, the companies said on Monday. NextDecade will supply the superchilled fuel from its fifth liquefaction facility, also known as a train, at Rio Grande. Sign up here. Shares of the LNG producer rose 2.3% in extended trading. The U.S. LNG sector has seen a surge in commercial activity since President Donald Trump lifted a pause on new export permits in January. The freeze, originally imposed by the previous administration in 2024 for a review of the public interest criteria, was reversed shortly after Trump took office. With new projects now under construction and others expected to receive financial approval this year, the U.S. - the world's largest LNG exporter - could triple its export capacity by 2030. NextDecade has been building its Rio Grande LNG facility with a capacity of 17.6 mtpa and is also developing its Train 4 and 5 with a combined additional capacity of 10.8 mtpa. Its agreement with ConocoPhillips will be on a free-on-board basis at a price indexed to Henry Hub, subject to a positive final investment decision on Train 5, which is expected in the fourth quarter. NextDecade said it has announced a total of 4.5 mtpa of LNG from Train 5 sold under 20-year agreements. That, according to the company, is sufficient to support a positive FID on Train 5. It has completed the commercialization of Train 5. LNG developers typically reach an FID on projects once they have secured enough supply deals to obtain the necessary financing for construction. NextDecade has signed similar deals with top oil producer Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) , opens new tab, TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab, Japan's biggest power generator JERA, and EQT (EQT.N) , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/conocophillips-buy-lng-nextdecades-rio-grande-train-5-project-2025-09-08/

0
0
2

2025-09-08 20:31

TSX ends down 0.1% at 29,027.73 Industrials fall 1.1% Shares of MDA Space drop 25% Materials group adds 1.3% a gold rises TORONTO, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index ended lower on Monday as the industrial and consumer staples sectors lost ground, but the move was modest ahead of potential U.S. and Canadian interest rate cuts this month. The S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) , opens new tab ended down 22.9 points, or 0.1%, at 29,027.73. It follows eight-straight days of gains that lifted the market to a record closing high on Friday. Sign up here. "September always tends to be a challenging month in terms of seasonal volatility and the biggest factor this month is very likely to be interest rate cuts," said Elvis Picardo, a portfolio manager at Luft Financial, iA Private Wealth. "The markets are anticipating rate cuts on both sides of the border." Expectations that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will resume their easing campaigns were given a boost on Friday by disappointing U.S. and Canadian jobs data. Investors see a roughly 90% chance the BoC will lower its benchmark rate from its current setting of 2.75% on September 17. Industrials (.GSPTTIN) , opens new tab fell 1.1%, weighed by declines for the shares of railroad companies and MDA Space Ltd (MDA.TO) , opens new tab. MDA was down 25% after the space technology firm said it received a termination notice from EchoStar for a satellite constellation contract. Consumer staples (.GSPTTCS) , opens new tab also lost 1.1% but the materials group (.GSPTTMT) , opens new tab, which includes metal mining shares, was up 1.3% as the price of gold extended its record-setting run. "For a while, there was a big disconnect between the price of gold, which kept climbing to record highs and the price of gold stocks, but lately we've seen that disconnect narrow a little bit," Picardo said. The bidding war for Canadian oil sands producer MEG Energy (MEG.TO) , opens new tab heated up as Strathcona Resources (SCR.TO) , opens new tab raised its offer, seeking to outbid larger rival Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) , opens new tab. Shares of MEG rose 2.4%, Strathcona was down 0.3% and Cenovus ended nearly unchanged. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/tsxs-daily-winning-streak-ends-mda-space-tumbles-2025-09-08/

0
0
2

2025-09-08 20:18

Focus on enhancing LNG infrastructure in Italy and the US Move aims to replace Russian gas, boost US supplies to Europe ROME, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Italy and the United States on Monday vowed to deepen energy ties including through increased exports to Italy of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as Europe continues to seek alternatives to Russian energy supplies following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Italian Energy Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin and U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, after talks in Rome, pledged to foster a "steady and secure" flow of American LNG to Europe, without committing to exact figures or timeframes. Sign up here. They said they would aim to "encourage investments in LNG import and regasification infrastructure in Italy, as well as export infrastructure in the United States, to ensure efficient and resilient supply chains." The European Union took steps to phase out imports of Russian gas and LNG, and the U.S. is set to boost its supplies as the bloc moves to end a decades-long energy relationship with Moscow which crumbled after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "U.S. LNG contributes to supply security thanks in part to the greater reliability of the route from the United States to Italy and Europe, compared with the geopolitical risks present on other routes," Pichetto Fratin said in a statement. A potential increase in Italian imports of American LNG was discussed in Washington in April during a meeting between Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and U.S. President Donald Trump. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/italy-us-agree-boost-lng-ties-infrastructure-investment-2025-09-08/

0
0
2

2025-09-08 20:14

Strathcona owns or controls 14.2% of MEG shares MEG board supports Cenovus offer Strathcona founder Waterous criticizes MEG's sale process Sept 8 (Reuters) - The bidding war for Canadian oil sands producer MEG Energy (MEG.TO) , opens new tab heated up on Monday as Strathcona Resources (SCR.TO) , opens new tab raised its offer, seeking to outbid larger rival Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) , opens new tab. The battle for MEG, Canada's last large pure-play oil sands company, continues a years-long trend of domestic consolidation in the country's oil sands. The play is now mostly controlled by a handful of large Canadian companies after foreign players largely exited over the last decade. Sign up here. MEG's Christina Lake oil sands project has become a prized asset, with its long reserve life, low operating costs, and significant potential for production growth making it one of the few large-scale expansion opportunities. Strathcona said its revised offer values MEG at C$30.86 per share, above the C$27.79 valuation of Cenovus' August cash-and-stock agreement. Strathcona had proposed C$23.27 per share in its initial hostile bid in May. The new offer, which expires on October 20, gives MEG an equity value of about C$7.85 billion ($5.68 billion), according to Reuters calculations. Since 2020, Strathcona has become one of the fastest-growing oil companies in North America through a series of acquisitions. The company, backed by private equity firm Waterous Energy Fund, has been building its position in MEG, disclosing it owns or controls about 14.2% of the company's shares. It said the company will vote against the Cenovus transaction at an October 9 shareholder meeting, where two-thirds approval is required. "We're not playing just to defeat Cenovus, we're here to buy the business," Strathcona founder and Executive Chair Adam Waterous said in an interview on Monday. MEG's board has backed Cenovus' offer, which would combine its Christina Lake operations with Cenovus' adjacent assets, creating one of Canada's largest oil sands producers with output of more than 720,000 barrels per day. Cenovus shareholders had reaped nearly C$3.9 billion in market value gains after the deal was unveiled last month, while MEG investors were left with limited upside. Strathcona called the Cenovus deal "lopsided" and accused MEG's board of running a "broken sale process" that excluded its earlier overtures. "We put (MEG) in play, and now they've very transparently adopted an 'anyone but Strathcona' view,'" Waterous said. Strathcona's aggressive pursuit of MEG is unusual given how rare hostile takeover attempts are in the Canadian oil sector, said Cole Smead of Smead Capital Management, who holds all three stocks in his portfolio. But Canadian oil sands companies must get bigger to compete effectively on the international scene, he added. "This is a shock to the system for the Canadian markets," Smead said. "But scale is the name of the game." MEG said in a statement on Monday afternoon it would evaluate Strathcona's revised offer and respond on or before September 15. Cenovus did not respond to Reuters' request for comment. MEG's stock price closed at C$29.02, up 2.4%, while Strathcona closed down 0.3% at C$38.31. Cenovus shares gained one cent to close at C$22.12. ($1 = 1.3816 Canadian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/canadas-strathcona-sweetens-meg-energy-bid-top-cenovus-offer-2025-09-08/

0
0
2