2025-09-08 11:06

Gold breaches $3,600 for the first time Speculators raise long positions in bullion - CFTC A 88% chance of 25-bp rate cut in September - CME FedWatch Sept 8 (Reuters) - Gold's rally extended beyond the $3,600 level for the first time on Monday after soft U.S. jobs data cemented expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week. Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,617.79 per ounce at 1209 GMT after hitting a record high of $3,622.07 earlier in the session. Sign up here. Bullion has surged about 37% so far this year, building on a 27% gain in 2024, driven by a weaker dollar, strong central bank buying, a soft monetary policy backdrop, and geopolitical and economic uncertainty. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were unchanged at $3,657.20. U.S. job growth weakened sharply in August, data showed on Friday, and the unemployment rate rose to a nearly four-year high of 4.3%, confirming a softer labour market and sealing the case for a Fed rate cut next week. "(Rate cut bets) are boosting the demand of gold. Moreover, the overall geopolitical scenario is extremely uncertain ... we should consider that a significant part of the demand is also coming from central bank buying," said Carlo Alberto De Casa, an external analyst at banking group Swissquote. Traders have priced in a 88% chance of a 25-bp cut next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies. "We look for gold to rise to $3,700/oz by mid next year," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, meanwhile, were near their lowest in five months. Focus now shifts to U.S. Producer Price Index data on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index on Thursday, that could offer more clarity on the size of the Fed's expected rate cut. Meanwhile, China's central bank added gold to its reserves in August, extending purchases of bullion into a 10th straight month, official data showed on Sunday. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.6% to $41.22 per ounce. Platinum climbed 0.6% to $1,381.61, and palladium gained 1.4% to $1,125.19. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-hits-record-high-above-3600oz-traders-weigh-fed-rate-cut-bets-2025-09-08/

2025-09-08 10:49

Eight OPEC+ members to lift output by 137,000 bpd from October Russia hits Ukraine with biggest air attack of war Trump says European leaders to visit US over Russia-Ukraine war LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed more than $1 on Monday, regaining some of last week's losses, after OPEC+'s output hike was seen as modest and due to concerns over the possibility of more sanctions on Russian crude. OPEC+ flagged plans to further increase production from October but the amount was less than some analysts had anticipated. Reuters reported earlier this month that members were considering another hike. Sign up here. "The market had run ahead of itself in regard to this OPEC+ increase," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "Today we're seeing a classic sell the rumour, buy the fact reaction." Brent crude climbed $1.45, or 2.2%, to $66.95 a barrel by 1200 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.36, or 2.2%, to $63.23 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than 2% on Friday as a weak U.S. jobs report dimmed the outlook for energy demand. They lost more than 3% last week. OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, agreed on Sunday to further raise oil production from October. OPEC+ has been increasing production since April after years of cuts aimed at supporting the oil market. The latest decision comes despite a likely looming oil glut in the Northern Hemisphere winter months. The eight members of OPEC+ will lift production from October by 137,000 barrels per day. That, however, is much lower than increases of about 555,000 bpd for September and August and 411,000 bpd in July and June. The impact of the latest increase is expected to be relatively low, because some members have been overproducing. So the higher output level would likely include barrels that are already in the market, analysts said. "Expectations of tighter supply from potential new U.S. sanctions on Russia are also lending support," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he is ready to move to a second phase of sanctioning Russia, the closest he has come to suggesting he is on the verge of ramping up sanctions against Moscow or its oil buyers over the war in Ukraine. New sanctions on buyers of Russian oil could disrupt crude flows, energy trader Gunvor's [RIC:RIC:GGL.UL] global head of research and analysis, Frederic Lasserre, said on Monday. Russia launched its largest air attack of the Ukraine war over the weekend, setting the main government building on fire in central Kyiv and killing at least four people, Ukrainian officials said. Trump said on Sunday that individual European leaders would visit the United States on Monday and Tuesday to discuss how to resolve the conflict. In a note over the weekend, Goldman Sachs said it expects a slightly larger oil surplus in 2026 as supply upgrades in the Americas outweigh a downgrade to Russian supply and stronger global demand. It left its Brent/WTI price forecast unchanged for 2025 and projected the 2026 average at $56/$52 a barrel. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-gains-after-opec-output-hike-seen-modest-2025-09-07/

2025-09-08 10:46

BRUSSELS, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The European Union's sanctions envoy David O'Sullivan is in Washington with a team of experts to discuss further sanctions against Russia with U.S. counterparts, the European Commission said on Monday. On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was ready to move to a second phase of restrictions, the closest he has come to suggesting he is on the verge of boosting sanctions against Moscow over its war in Ukraine. Sign up here. EU Council President Antonio Costa said new sanctions were being closely coordinated with the U.S., and EU officials are hopeful of better cooperation after several disappointments early in the year as Trump pursued his own peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin instead. The United States has not joined other Group of Seven nations (G7) - the EU, Britain and Canada - in lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil before sanctions are levied to $47.60 a barrel. However, Trump has announced steep tariffs on U.S. imports from India in part due to its major Russian energy purchases. The EU is currently drafting a 19th package of Russia sanctions, which EU diplomats said was likely to include more listings of Chinese companies, Russian banks and vessels in Moscow's sanctions-evading "shadow fleet", as well as a transaction ban on Russian oil. The Kremlin said on Monday that no sanctions would ever force Russia to change course. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-envoy-washington-talks-russia-sanctions-commission-says-2025-09-08/

2025-09-08 10:43

LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. Markets face a politically-charged start to the week in Japan and France , but attention will soon turn back to the U.S. where interest rate markets are once again mulling the chance of half-point Federal Reserve rate cut next week after another soft August payrolls report jarred markets on Friday. Ahead of August inflation reports due later in the week and annual payroll revisions out tomorrow, two- and 10-year Treasury yields on Friday plunged to their lowest levels since April, while the dollar and S&P 500 stocks fell . * Japan's Nikkei rose as the yen weakened slightly after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned on Sunday and ruling Liberal Democratic lawmakers prepared bids to replace him - with fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi the frontrunners. But with market bets on an October Bank of Japan rate rise halved to just a 20% chance over the past week, Japan's 30-year bond yield climbed to new record highs. French stocks, bond prices and the euro were firmer, however, as the latest French government faces a confidence vote today. * Friday's U.S. employment report showed the jobless rate ticking up to its highest in four years, as expected, but weak job creation reinforced fears of a weakening labor market. Even though Fed officials are in a blackout period ahead of next week's meeting, this week's CPI report will now be critical to the outcome and the New York Fed's inflation expectations survey is due later today. Political pressure on the Fed intensified on Friday as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for renewed scrutiny of the Federal Reserve, including its power to set interest rates, as the Trump administration intensifies its efforts to exert control over a central bank. * Elsewhere, world stocks were generally higher - even in China where the latest trade numbers showed China's export growth slowed to a six-month low in August and imports also missed forecasts. China's exports to the U.S. fell 33.12% year-on-year in August, while its shipments to Southeast Asian nations rose 22.5% in the same period. Oil prices climbed more than $1, regaining some of last week's losses, after the weekend OPEC+ output hike was seen as modest due to concerns over more sanctions on Russian crude. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, with economists expecting no change to policy rates as inflation hovers near the central bank's 2% target. Today's column looks at why the dollar's much-vaunted 'safe haven' status during the 2008 bank crash may have been a mirage. Today's Market Minute * U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he is ready to move to a second phase of sanctioning Russia, the closest he has come to suggesting he is on the verge of ramping up sanctions against Moscow or its oil buyers over the war in Ukraine. * Ruling party lawmakers in Japan prepared their bids to replace outgoing premier Shigeru Ishiba on Monday, as financial markets recoiled on the political uncertainty and the possibility of his successors ramping up government spending. * South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun will head to the U.S. on Monday as he seeks to resolve the fallout over the detention of hundreds of Korean workers during an immigration raid at a time when Seoul has committed to massive investment plans in America. * OPEC+’s surprise announcement that it will further accelerate oil production may seem like a threat to an already oversupplied market, but ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso argues that the actual market impact is likely to be limited. * Summer is over, and TPW Advisory Founder Jay Pelosky says that means one thing: we’re about to see fund managers’ mad dash to year-end as everyone seeks to boost performance. He offers three counterintuitive points to keep in mind amid the scramble. Chart of the day France's fourth prime minister in three years, François Bayrou, faces almost certain defeat in a confidence vote, tipping the euro zone's second-biggest economy further into political uncertainty. The upheaval threatens France's ability to rein in its debt, with the risk of further credit downgrades looming and Fitch due to give its verdict on Friday. France faces acute pressure to repair its finances, with last year's deficit nearly double the EU's 3% limit of economic output and public debt at 113.9% of GDP. Today's events to watch * U.S. August employment trends (10:00 AM ET), July consumer credit (3:00 PM ET), New York Fed's August survey of consumer expectations * French parliament holds confidence vote in government, National Assembly begins meeting at 8:00 AM ET * Norwegian Parliament election, final day of voting -- Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-09-08/

2025-09-08 10:38

Sept 8 (Reuters) - Futures tied to Canada's main stock index inched up on Monday, after a surprise job loss in August boosted expectations for a Bank of Canada rate cut later this month. Futures on the S&P/TSX index gained 0.23% to 1,724.30 points by 06:24 a.m. ET (1024 GMT). The benchmark index ended higher for the eighth straight session on Friday, notching another record rally. Sign up here. Data showed on Friday that Canada's economy shed 65,500 jobs in August, largely in part-time work, and the unemployment rate climbed to 7.1%. That's the highest level of unemployment since May 2016, excluding the pandemic. Money market now sees a 89% chance that the BoC will resume its easing campaign on September 17 after leaving its benchmark rate on hold at 2.75% since March. Investors are also are expecting a rate cut that same day by the U.S. Federal Reserve after Friday's nonfarm payrolls report confirmed the U.S. labor market was deteriorating. In commodities, gold prices rose to a record high on Monday while oil and copper prices also edged up. In corporate news, Canadian oil and gas producer Strathcona Resources (SCR.TO) , opens new tab raised its offer for MEG Energy (MEG.TO) , opens new tab, seeking to outbid Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) , opens new tab. FOR CANADIAN MARKETS NEWS, CLICK ON CODES: TSX market report Canadian dollar and bonds report CA/ Reuters global stocks poll for Canada , Canadian markets directory https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/tsx-futures-rise-bank-canada-rate-cut-hopes-2025-09-08/

2025-09-08 10:33

Sept 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's well-regarded finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati was removed from her position on Monday as part of a broader cabinet reshuffle, with the president appointing an economist, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, to replace her. The country's main stock index fell 1.3%, while the rupiah spiked 0.7%, set for its biggest intraday gain in over two months. Sign up here. Here are analyst comments on the changes. JASON TUVEY, DEPUTY CHIEF EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS, LONDON: "The removal of Indonesia's well-respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani from her post will raise concerns that, in the wake of recent protests in the country, President Prabowo Subianto will seek to loosen the fiscal rules and potentially place greater pressure on the central bank to support the government's economic objectives. "At this stage, his (Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa) views on economic policy are unclear, but the key risk is that he proves to be more pliant to the president’s wishes. That could lead to efforts to ditch, or at least look for ways around, the existing fiscal rules. There could even be pressure on the central bank to loosen monetary policy more aggressively and more proactively support government programmes." TRINH NGUYEN, SENIOR ECONOMIST FOR EMERGING ASIA, NATIXIS, HONG KONG: "The key question for markets is whether Prabowo can have his cake and eat it too. To afford the lunch program, she (Mulyani) had to make the difficult decision of cutting expenditure very aggressively to maintain fiscal sustainability and also the negative 3% of GDP fiscal limit. "The issue is how is the new Finance Minister going to afford the 1.5% of GDP lunch program and at the same time raise spending for sectors such as defense without punching a larger hole in the deficit. For investors, that will be a key concern." SAKTIANDI SUPAAT, REGIONAL HEAD OF FX RESEARCH AND STRATEGY, GLOBAL MARKETS, MAYBANK, SINGAPORE: "The rupiah reacted quite sharply... I suppose the reaction is not surprising, because it was unexpected. "I think that there would definitely be concerns about how the fiscal situation would be in terms of fiscal policy developments out of Indonesia going forward, but I think markets are probably going to wait for the finance ministry's statement and comments about, under the new leadership, what their plans will be. But I think in the interim, there will be some efforts by BI to make sure the currency remains stable ... in terms of reducing any unexpected sharp volatility that may impact business conditions. "Sri Mulyani has been a stable anchor ... and she has international standing. So I think whoever fills her shoes has very big shoes to fill, but also foreign investors would need to hear some statements from the ministry to get some reassurance." ANINDA MITRA, HEAD OF ASIA MACRO STRATEGY, BNY INVESTMENT INSTITUTE, SINGAPORE: "I would say today's decision seems quite abrupt and unexpected. In the context of the recent turmoil in local and global markets, market participants will want certainty about policy settings and a steady hand at the fiscal till. The IDR may have to bear the brunt of the removal of Indonesia's veteran finance minister until greater confidence about what the cabinet reshuffle entails for any prospective shifts in budgetary outlays and funding sources." MOHIT MIRPURI, FUND MANAGER, SGMC CAPITAL, SINGAPORE: "Mulyani's departure, though not unexpected after recent unrest, marks the end of an era of fiscal credibility." HASNAIN MALIK, EM EQUITY AND GEOPOLITICS STRATEGIST AT TELLIMER, DUBAI: "Mulyani was the safeguard of prudent fiscal policy. Therefore, her departure will stir up fears of widening deficits under an unconstrained and, after the protests, under-pressure Prabowo." RYOTA ABE, ECONOMIST, SMBC, SINGAPORE: "Sri Mulyani Indrawati’s departure poses significant damage to the Indonesian fiscal position and to global investors in the near term. "In the near term, Bank Indonesia is likely to be forced to intervene intensively in the financial markets to prevent the IDR from falling further." https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/analyst-reactions-indonesia-naming-new-finance-minister-2025-09-08/