Warning!
Blogs   >   FX Daily Updates
FX Daily Updates
All Posts

2025-09-05 12:28

Crude down for a third consecutive session US crude inventories rise by 2.4 million barrels OPEC+ to consider further output hike on Sunday, sources say LONDON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Oil extended its decline into a third session on Friday, heading for a weekly loss for the first time in three weeks as expectations grow of higher supply and a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories added to demand concerns. Reuters reported on Wednesday that eight members of OPEC+ will consider raising production further at a meeting on Sunday. U.S. crude inventories rose 2.4 million barrels last week, rather than falling as analysts expected. Sign up here. Brent crude futures fell 51 cents, or 0.8%, to $66.48 a barrel by 1205 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 52 cents, or 0.8%, to $62.96. "There are increasing stories and signs of a future where feedstock supply is unlikely to be a problem," said John Evans at oil broker PVM. For the week, Brent is down 2.4% and WTI down 1.7%. Expectations are growing that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia - known together as OPEC+ - will push more barrels into the market to regain market share at Sunday's meeting. Another boost would mean that OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world's oil, would be starting to unwind a second layer of output cuts of about 1.65 million barrels per day, or 1.6% of world demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. Strength in the downstream sector has been a key support for prices, BMI analysts said in a report, but refining margins will likely be squeezed in coming months as global demand growth wanes and refiners ramp up maintenance. Supply risks continue to support the market, however. U.S. President Donald Trump told European leaders on Thursday that Europe must stop buying Russian oil, a White House official said. Any cuts to Russia's crude exports or other disruption to supplies could push global oil prices higher. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/oil-heads-weekly-loss-higher-supply-expected-2025-09-05/

0
0
3

2025-09-05 12:00

DARWIN, Australia, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The $18.7 billion bid by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) for Australian liquefied natural gas producer Santos is facing a far higher hurdle than just the amount of money on offer. It's the politics of the transaction, which would be Australia's largest-ever cash takeover, that are looking increasingly hard to overcome. Sign up here. ADNOC launched the bid for Santos (STO.AX) , opens new tab, Australia's second-biggest oil and gas company, in June and an initial due diligence was due to be completed by August. This was delayed in August to September 19 even though no major issues were identified with the deal. The delay and the fact that Santos' shares are still trading well below the indicative offer price of A$8.89, having ended on Thursday at A$7.85, are signs that the deal is struggling. The proposed takeover was a major talking point at this week's South East Asia Australia Offshore and Onshore Conference in Darwin, capital of Australia's Northern Territory and home to Santos' Darwin LNG plant, which is about to be restarted. Participants from inside the industry and the government largely expressed the view that the deal was just not simply compelling enough from an Australian point of view. It was also interesting that while people would talk about the deal, nobody was prepared to go on the record, showing that above all, the ADNOC proposal is a political minefield and keeping quiet is seen as the sensible option. Other than a good payout to Santos shareholders, the question is why would Australia want to sell off some of its crown jewel LNG assets, as well as add fresh complications to a domestic natural gas market battling high prices and a lack of future supply. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers will have to approve the deal, and while he will want to maintain Australia's reputation as a safe and welcoming investment destination, he will also be mindful that selling a major domestic energy player to a company owned by a foreign government is unlikely to be a vote winner. MORE INVESTMENT So, what would ADNOC have to do to get the deal over the line? The major problem is that ADNOC is planning on buying existing and operating assets and has yet to outline a clear path for how it would grow the business and invest in Australia. This is quite different to the $200 billion invested by mostly foreign oil companies in the decade from 2010 to 2020 to build Australia's LNG capacity to what was then the biggest in the world. The attraction of Santos is that it offers two existing LNG plants in Australia and a stake in one in neighbouring Papua New Guinea, as well as a share in another PNG project scheduled for a final investment decision early next year. It's likely that ADNOC is less interested in Santos' onshore Australian gas assets that supply the domestic market. While ADNOC hasn't said anything, it wouldn't be a surprise if it tried to sell the onshore output to another operator. But if ADNOC wanted to show it was willing and able to build on the Santos portfolio, there are good opportunities to do so. Santos has exploration acreage in the Beetaloo Basin in the Northern Territory that holds the promise of being the next big thing for Australian natural gas, with geology superior to many similar shale plays in the United States and an estimated reserve of 500 trillion cubic feet of gas. A commitment to develop the Beetaloo, along with associated pipeline infrastructure to a newly-built LNG train alongside Santos' existing Darwin plant, would go a long way to convincing Australians that ADNOC wanted more than just control of the existing LNG assets. To give the deal a greater chance of winning political support, it's likely ADNOC is going to have to talk more about its plans and what commitments it is prepared to make. If it doesn't, it will be too easy for Chalmers and the ruling centre-left Labor Party to reject the deal on national interest grounds. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/adnoc-will-have-offer-more-than-money-santos-deal-work-2025-09-05/

0
0
3

2025-09-05 11:58

Dollar slips ahead of key U.S. jobs data Yen gains after Japan-US trade deal lowers auto tariffs Traders expect near-100% chance of Fed rate cut this month Trump's Fed nominee vows independence from political pressure TOKYO/LONDON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The dollar declined against major peers on Friday, trimming gains made this week as bond markets stabilised and traders awaited key U.S. jobs data expected to firm up the case for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Data on Thursday showing higher-than-expected applications for jobless benefits in the U.S. served as a prelude to the more critical nonfarm payrolls report. Bonds rallied in the U.S., Europe and Japan after fiscal concerns spurred a run-up in long-term yields, while the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high. Sign up here. "It seems to me that the reaction to the ADP yesterday was a bit too muted," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING. "All in all, it is pointing to a probably weak payroll figure today. I was a little surprised to see the dollar holding up yesterday." He said dollar weakness in early European trading on Friday could be indicative of traders offloading the greenback ahead of the U.S. job figures at 8:30 a.m. ET (1230 GMT). On Friday, the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, dipped 0.2% to 98.018, trimming its gain for the week to 0.2%. The dollar dropped 0.2% to 148.14 yen. The euro was up 0.3% on the day at $1.16845. In the UK, sterling was last up 0.3% at $1.34720 , while versus the euro, the pound was unchanged at 86.70 pence. The pound held steady after Friday's news that British Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigned after admitting to underpaying property tax on a new home, in a fresh blow for her boss, Prime Minister Keir Starmer. British finance minister Rachel Reeves will stay in her role despite an expected wider government reshuffle, BBC News reported on Friday following Rayner's resignation. Earlier, UK retail sales data for July came in hot but also failed to move the dial on sterling. Focus remains on the dollar and the Fed's likely trajectory on interest rates. U.S. President Donald Trump's meddling with Fed policy and his unpredictable tariff regime has made investors shy about holding dollar assets of late, said Bart Wakabayashi, the Tokyo Branch Manager of State Street. "The dollar remains very, very underweight," Wakabayashi said. "I do think there is room for the dollar buying to come back at some point. Maybe investors are just waiting for the rate cut to happen and then pile back in." Several Fed officials said labour market worries continue to support their calls for rate cuts, boosting expectations of an imminent easing. The Fed is due to convene on September 16-17. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will report U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August, with economists surveyed by Reuters expecting an increase of 75,000 jobs after a gain of 73,000 in July. That follows figures on Thursday showing that U.S. private payrolls rose by less than expected in August and jobless claims in the final week of the month were higher than predicted. "The risk is still tilted to payrolls underperforming U.S. economists' expectations that will weigh on the USD tonight," Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a note. Traders are pricing in a near-100% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates later this month, up from 87% a week ago, CME FedWatch showed. Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said that Friday's jobs report doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. "The Fed will be delivering a 25-bp cut at the September meeting. A hot report shan't dissuade them from doing so, given the broader trend of softening jobs data. A cool report shan't convince them to plump for a larger rate reduction, given lingering upside inflation risks," he wrote in a note. Trump signed an order on Thursday to implement lower tariffs on Japanese automobile imports and other products that were announced in July. Japan also confirmed its commitment to an annual $7 billion worth of energy purchases from the U.S., a joint statement from the countries showed. The Australian dollar rose 0.4% to $0.6544 . The New Zealand dollar rose 0.6% to $0.58785 https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-ticks-lower-bond-markets-stabilise-us-jobs-data-looms-2025-09-05/

0
0
3

2025-09-05 11:57

BERLIN, Sept 5 (Reuters) - BMW (BMWG.DE) , opens new tab Chief Executive Oliver Zipse said the European Union’s planned phase-out of combustion engines by 2035 was a "big mistake", calling for a shift to emission measures that capture a vehicle's entire supply chain. Zipse said in an interview with Politico, published on Friday, that setting a fixed date for the transition risked ignoring emissions across the value chain, including battery production and fuel sourcing. Sign up here. He urged EU regulators to allow climate-friendly fuels beyond 2035, saying fuel producers must also be held accountable. "We do ourselves no favours by setting arbitrary future dates by which all industries must adapt," he said in the interview, extracts from which were published on Friday morning. "The absurdity of the current rules is that the fuel makers - the Shells and the BPs - face no targets." Despite problems facing the industry such as higher tariffs, weak demand and Chinese competition, Zipse said BMW remains on track to sell more than 2.5 million vehicles in 2025. “We are ahead of last year’s numbers as of August,” he said, noting growth particularly in Europe. He was speaking ahead of the IAA motor show in Munich, Europe's biggest, at which the Bavarian-based company will launch the first model of a new class of electric vehicles. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/bmw-ceo-calls-eus-2035-combustion-engine-ban-big-mistake-sees-strong-2025-sales-2025-09-05/

0
0
3

2025-09-05 11:51

Sept 5 (Reuters) - Justin Sun, one of the biggest known backers of President Donald Trump's World Liberty Financial crypto venture, said on Friday that his tokens had been frozen, without giving further details. Sun had spent at least $75 million on World Liberty Financial tokens, known as $WLFI, according to his posts on X. The tokens became publicly tradable on Monday and fell in value. Sign up here. In a post on X addressed to "the World Liberty Financials team", Sun said: "during the course of operations, my tokens were unreasonably frozen" and asked the team to unlock them. China-born crypto entrepreneur Sun did not specify what the operations were, how many tokens were frozen or who had frozen them. A spokesperson for World Liberty Financial did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside U.S. business hours. "Tokens are sacred and inviolable—this should be the most basic value of any blockchain. It’s also what makes us stronger and more fair than traditional finance," Sun said on X. "I call on the team to respect these principles, unlock my tokens, and let’s move forward together toward the success of World Liberty Financials." Sun did not respond to a message from Reuters asking for more information. World Liberty had previously said that early investors would be able to sell up to 20% of their token holdings. The tokens were trading at around 19 cents on Friday, according to CoinGecko, having initially traded above 30 cents at their debut. Reuters reported in February that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is exploring a resolution to its civil fraud case against Sun. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-crypto-backer-justin-sun-says-his-world-liberty-tokens-frozen-2025-09-05/

0
0
3

2025-09-05 11:50

BEIJING, Sept 5 (Reuters) - China on Friday placed initial anti-dumping duties of up to 62.4% on pork imports worth over $2 billion from the European Union, deepening trade tensions that spiked when the bloc imposed tariffs on China-made electric vehicles. The Ministry of Commerce's preliminary investigation into pork products found evidence of dumping that damaged the domestic industry and approved duties starting on September 10, according to a release on Friday. Sign up here. Companies that collaborated with the investigation, among them Spanish, Danish and Dutch firms, received duties ranging from 15.6% to 32.7%. All other firms were assigned 62.4%. Launched in June last year, the investigation is widely seen as retaliation for EU tariffs on electric vehicles and has hit major producers such as Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark. The European Commission said the investigation was based on "questionable allegations and insufficient evidence" and that it had not yet determined its response. "But I can categorically assure you that we will take all the necessary steps to defend our producers and industry," a spokesperson said. China also has an anti-subsidy case looking into EU dairy exports and anti-dumping measures on EU brandy, which allows exporters to avoid duties if they commit to sell at no lower than a set minimum price. Beijing has pressed Brussels to replace EV tariffs with a similar price commitment by China-based producers, but negotiations between the two sides have failed to yield an agreement. Friday's decision is bad news for producers who had hoped Beijing’s decision to extend the investigation for six months in June this year meant a deal over the bloc’s electric vehicle tariffs was in the offing. A significant portion of the bloc's pork shipments to China consists of offal - including pig ears, noses and feet - highly valued in Chinese cuisine but with few alternative destinations. "This is worrying news for us. We're concerned about the impact this will have on prices on the European market," said Anne Richard, director of French pork industry association INAPORC. The decision is only preliminary and could theoretically be changed when the investigation ends in December. There is also precedent for China extending investigations after levying tariffs, as in the case of Canadian canola. Even Rogers Pay, an analyst at Beijing-based Trivium China who specialises in agriculture, said with just a few months left the odds of finding a negotiated solution were "increasingly slim". https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-slaps-initial-duties-eu-pork-imports-2025-09-05/

0
0
3