2025-09-04 11:22

Sept 4 (Reuters) - Futures tied to Canada's main stock index inched up on Thursday as investors awaited key employment data that could influence the Bank of Canada's September interest-rate decision. Futures on the S&P/TSX index gained 0.4% to 1,710.90 points by 06:17 a.m. ET (1017 GMT). The benchmark index rose to another record high on Wednesday. Sign up here. Both Canada and the U.S. are due to release employment reports for August on Friday. Economists forecast that Canada's economy added 10,000 jobs and the country's unemployment rate rose to 7% from 6.9% a month earlier. The data follow last week's GDP report that showed Canada's economy contracted more than expected in the second quarter, prompting markets to expect that the BoC may move to cut interest rates. Money markets see a 68.5% chance of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut at the September 17 meeting. The benchmark rate is at 2.75%. 0#CADIRPR Investors will also watch U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee, economic advisor Stephen Miran, testify in a Senate confirmation hearing on Thursday to fill Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's seat, which she resigned from last month. In commodities, oil and gold prices declined while copper prices retreated across major exchanges on Thursday. Separate data showed that Greater Toronto Area home sales fell for the first time in five months in August and prices edged lower. FOR CANADIAN MARKETS NEWS, CLICK ON CODES: TSX market report Canadian dollar and bonds report CA/ Reuters global stocks poll for Canada , Canadian markets directory https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/tsx-futures-edge-higher-before-economic-data-2025-09-04/

2025-09-04 11:06

TORONTO, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar is set to strengthen over the coming year as the Bank of Canada potentially cuts interest rates just two more times in the current easing campaign and expected rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve help stimulate Canada's economy, a Reuters poll found. The median forecast of 32 foreign exchange analysts in the August 29-September 3 poll predicted the loonie would strengthen 1.4% to 1.36 per U.S. dollar, or 73.53 U.S. cents, in three months, compared with the 1.37 level expected in a survey last month. Sign up here. In 12 months, the currency was forecast to gain 2.8% to 1.3415, versus 1.35 seen previously. Investors expect the BoC to resume its easing campaign at a policy decision on September 17 and are pricing in roughly 40 basis points of easing in total by the end of 2026. The central bank has left its benchmark rate on hold at 2.75% since March, having eased by a cumulative 225 basis points since June 2024. "The BoC is close to done with cutting rates, while the Fed is yet to start in earnest, and we suspect the FOMC is likely to surprise markets with the quantum of rates cuts that they ultimately deliver," said Nick Rees, senior FX market analyst at Monex Europe Ltd. "Combine this with positive spillovers to Canadian growth, and we see plenty of scope for the loonie to make gains against the greenback in the coming 12 months." Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including oil and autos. The U.S. has imposed a 35% tariff on goods from Canada but the vast majority of products are exempt from duties under a continental trade pact. Fiscal spending on defense and other items could also boost Canada's economy, say analysts. Canada has been dealing with economic uncertainty since the start of the year, so the primary focus of the federal budget, due to be presented in October, will be to cut operational spending and funnel investments into major projects, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Wednesday. (Other stories from the Reuters September foreign exchange poll) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadian-dollar-forecasts-grow-more-bullish-boc-easing-cycle-nears-an-end-2025-09-04/

2025-09-04 10:45

LONDON, Sept 4 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. Ailing long-dated sovereign bonds around the world caught a break yesterday on a mix of soft U.S. jobs signals, decent auction buying and ebbing oil prices.The bond bounce and Federal Reserve easing speculation added to Alphabet's near 10% surge on its antitrust win to lift Wall Street stocks again on Wednesday, with index futures up again ahead of Thursday's bell. The day ahead brings another stream of labor market updates ahead of Friday's critical August payrolls report. * Fed futures rallied to fully price a quarter point interest rate cut later this month after news of falling U.S. job openings added to a downbeat readout from the central bank's 'Beige Book' on economic conditions and relatively dovish soundings from Fed officials. Two-year Treasury yields hit a four-month low. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on Thursday to consider President Donald Trump's nominee to the Fed board Stephen Miran while central bankers around the world fretted about potential threats to Fed independence. * Long-dated government bond yields around the world pulled back from record or multi-year highs on Thursday in tandem with the 10 basis point slide in 30-year Treasuries from yesterday's 5% peak, with Japan's 30-year equivalent also getting a break after a bond sale there drew enough demand to calm the horses despite being the lowest bid-to-offer rate since June. UK 30-year gilts rallied too with a 20bp drop in yields from Wednesday's highs. The dollar was firmer. * Japan and the United States are in the final stages of talks to implement lower tariffs on Japanese automobile imports within 10-14 days after a U.S. presidential executive order. Japanese stocks rallied, but Chinese stocks sharply underperformed generally higher world stocks - falling the most in nearly five months after media reports of possible regulatory curbs on speculation. Today's column explores why the so-called 'Fed put' may not work for long-maturity bonds and why lower central bank rates could actually aggravate the problem. Today's Market Minute * Donald Trump's administration asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday to swiftly hear a bid to preserve his sweeping tariffs pursued under a 1977 law meant for emergencies after a lower court invalidated most of the levies that have been central to the Republican president's economic and trade agenda. * Alibaba (9988.HK) ByteDance and other Chinese tech firms remain keen on Nvidia's (NVDA.O) artificial intelligence chips despite regulators in Beijing strongly discouraging them from such purchases, ⁠four people with knowledge of procurement discussions said. * North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country would "fully support" Russia's army as a "fraternal duty", and Russian President Vladimir Putin called the two countries' ties "special", state media KCNA reported on Thursday. * A notable trend this year has been the often-counterintuitive market reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to upend many long-held economic norms. One of the biggest surprises, writes ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever, has been the appreciation of China's yuan. * The high-stakes energy diplomacy in Beijing this week signals China’s willingness to defy U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to isolate Russia and assert U.S. energy dominance. Read the latest from ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso. Chart of the day U.S. job openings fell to a 10-month low in July and there were more unemployed people than positions available for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, data consistent with easing labor market conditions evident in that month's broader employment report. With reports on private sector payrolls and layoffs for August, along with weekly jobless claims numbers, due on Thursday, the signals for July will be held up to the light and Friday's August employment report is then likely to be pivotal for Fed easing expectations. Today's events to watch * U.S. August layoffs from Challenger (7:30 AM EDT) US August ADP private sector payrolls (8:15 AM EDT) weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM EDT), July goods trade balance (8:30 AM EDT) August service sector surveys from S&P Global (9:45 AM EDT) and ISM (10:00 AM EDT), Q2 labor costs and productivity (8:30 AM EDT); Canada July goods trade (8:30 AM EDT) * Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board (9:00 AM EDT) * New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee both speak * German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte take part in talks with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Paris * U.S. corporate earnings: Broadcom, Copart, Lululemon -- Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-09-04/

2025-09-04 10:14

MUMBAI, September 04 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee ended modestly lower on Thursday as dollar demand from local oil companies and foreign banks weighed on the currency even as firm expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve kept the greenback on the defensive. The rupee closed at 88.1450 against the U.S. dollar, down slightly from its close of 88.07 in the previous session. Sign up here. While the local unit had nudged higher to 88.0075 in early trading, importers stepped in to buy dollars around that level alongside foreign banks, which pulled it back down, traders said. Equity inflows have been persistent, but they "are not very sizeable on a daily basis," a trader at a state-run bank said. The absence of chunky outflows from local stocks has helped the currency stay steady after hitting a record low of 88.33 on September 1, the trader said. Foreign investors have sold $1.3 billion of local stocks on a net basis in September so far, while government bonds accessible to foreigner have logged modest inflows. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab ended slightly higher, helped by the government lowering consumption taxes to revive local demand and cushion the blow from steep U.S. tariffs. "Going ahead, given near-term uncertainties, we expect USD/INR to trade in the 87.75-88.50 range," analysts at Kotak Mahindra Bank said in a note. The U.S. dollar was steady against major peers on Thursday as investors awaited surveys on U.S. private sector employment and monthly layoffs, due later in the day. U.S. labour market data, culminating in the crucial jobs report due on Friday, is expected to influence expectations of Fed policy easing. Money markets are currently pricing in a near-certainty of a 25-basis-point cut later this month, per CME's FedWatch tool. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-ends-tad-lower-dollar-bids-importers-foreign-banks-2025-09-04/

2025-09-04 09:49

European and Asian stocks mostly rise despite China selloff Bond market calm after rising fiscal health concerns Weak job openings data, Fed's dovish comments reinforce rate cut bets LONDON, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Stocks were mostly higher on Thursday as dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and a smooth auction of super long-term debt in Japan eased some of the recent government bond market jitters. China bourses had tumbled overnight on reports Beijing wanted to cool the red hot rally in its equity markets, especially the tech sector (.STAR50) , opens new tab, (.CSI300) , opens new tab, but Europe had a much smoother start. Sign up here. The region's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab ticked up 0.3% as trading settled and the angst about rising long-term government borrowing costs in the likes of France, Britain and U.S. gave way to relative calm. Oil prices extended their weak week after a Reuters report that OPEC+ officials were eyeing an increase in output targets at their meeting this weekend, while the dollar was in drift mode ahead of Friday's crucial jobs report. /FRX Several key Federal Reserve officials have bolstered expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut in recent days. Traders are now pricing in a near 100% chance that one will be delivered at the central bank's next meeting on Sept. 17. "The markets have become a little bit more convinced about a Fed rate cut this month, so that has put some modest downward pressure on bond yields," MUFG's global markets division head of research, Derek Halpenny, said. He added that the Chinese equity market dip had weighed a little on the Aussie and Kiwi dollars in the FX markets, but otherwise it was largely a case of "consolidate and wait" for Friday's payrolls numbers. Europe's bond buyers nudged the German 30-year bond yield down just over 1 basis point to 3.3%. France’s was down roughly the same at 4.45%, having hit 4.523% on Tuesday, its highest since June 2009 on worries its government could collapse again. FALLING STAR Overnight, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding those from Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab had ended 0.2% lower after a Bloomberg report that financial regulators were preparing cooling measures for the market. Beijing bluechips (.CSI300) , opens new tab fell as much as 2.6%, while the tech-heavy STAR 50 index, which soared nearly 30% last month, dropped more than 6% in its worst day since April. Wall Street futures were pointing to an easy restart. Payrolls aren't till Friday, but traders will get to hear the nomination hearing of Stephen Miran, U.S. President Donald Trump's pick to replace resigning Fed board member Adriana Kugler. "It’ll be interesting to hear senators' questioning of Miran's views on Fed independence," Deutsche Bank's Global Head of Macro Research, Jim Reid, said, given that Trump has moved to fire another Fed official, Lisa Cook, and has been repeatedly criticising Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. In testimony posted to the Senate Banking Committee's website on Wednesday ahead of Thursday's hearing, Miran said he intended to "preserve" that independence. With all the focus the independence issues have created on already sky-high government debt levels, there was relief that an auction of 30-year Japanese bonds had gone smoothly in Tokyo overnight. Australian shares (.AXJO) , opens new tab advanced 1%, recovering from their biggest one-day sell-off since April, while the Nikkei 225 (.N225) , opens new tab ended 1.5% higher. "We got one or two days of weakness but the dip-buyers have stepped in," Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG in Sydney, said. India's benchmark Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab rose 1% as markets reopened, after the government slashed levies on several goods to fire up consumption and counteract U.S. tariffs. Wednesday's Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" had painted a mixed picture of U.S. economic health, which appeared to underscore monetary policymakers' concerns. Analysts at ING called it quite "bleak" and said it was "littered with" tariff warnings on prices. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes inched down to 4.2% in European trading with the more rate-sensitive 2-year yield just above 3.6%. The dollar edged up 0.1% against the yen at 148.25 , keeping within the trading range where it has stayed since the beginning of August. It was also fractionally higher against the euro at $1.1650. In commodities markets, Brent crude dipped 0.6% to $67.17 a barrel and gold edged back 0.8% after hitting a record high of 3,578.5 an ounce on Wednesday. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-3-pix-2025-09-04/

2025-09-04 09:09

LONDON, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The pound drifted on Thursday, in what has been its most volatile week in months, as investors grow increasingly nervous about Britain's finances and the government's ability to keep them under control, which has rattled the bond market too. Sterling traded a shade higher at $1.3455, heading for a third weekly decline. The pound was also steady against the euro , which held at 86.67 pence. Sign up here. Yields on 30-year British government bonds , or gilts, briefly shot up this week to their highest since 1998, swept along in a rout that has punished the long-dated debt of most major economies. Typically, higher yields would support the pound. But when that increase in borrowing costs is the product of concern about the outlook for inflation, rather than that of optimism that longer-term growth looks robust, the currency suffers. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday suggested that British interest rates would continue to fall, but there was far less certainty about the pace of cuts. "There is now considerably more doubt about exactly when and how quickly we can make those further steps," Bailey told a hearing of the House of Commons' Treasury Committee, reiterating his comments after August's rate cut. The derivatives market shows traders are assuming the BoE will almost certainly cut rates at its meeting on September 18, but the picture beyond that is fuzzier. "There is just an 18% chance of a cut in November, a month ago there was a 67% chance of a cut. Thus, UK yields may be able to reverse recent gains, but we still expect UK yields to remain higher than our peers' yields for some time," Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said. "With uncertainty likely as we lead up to the budget in November, we believe that sterling peaked in July at $1.38, and may trade sideways below $1.35 in the short term." Finance minister Rachel Reeves presents her autumn budget on November 26. Reeves is under pressure to keep the government's finances on track and has vowed to keep a grip on spending to help bring down inflation and borrowing costs. Bond investors are concerned. Britain has the highest borrowing costs among the Group of Seven advanced economies. A 10-year gilt yields 4.74%, compared with 4.2% for an equivalent U.S. Treasury and 1.6% for low-yielder Japan . https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-steadies-uk-bond-market-frenzy-ebbs-2025-09-04/