2025-12-04 06:06

Volume declines, surveys have sparked worries about future of alcohol industry IWSR data shows weekly drinking per person in the U.S. is relatively stable Weekly drinks per capita hits lowest since 1995, but only down by around 1 drink per week Alcohol makers, IWSR say drop is due to temporary economic pressures LONDON, Dec 4 - Americans say they are drinking less alcohol than ever before. But new data shows the number of drinks U.S. adults have per week has in fact not changed by much for decades. The data from drinks market research firm IWSR, shared exclusively with Reuters, shows that the number of weekly drinks per U.S. adult has hovered between 10 and 12 since 1975. While it is currently at its lowest since 1995, this reflects a decline of around 1.1 servings per person per week from a recent peak of 11.5 drinks in 2021. Sign up here. Surveys indicating a historic shift away from drinking, steep declines in alcohol sales, and falling drinking rates among young people have all fed a debate in recent years about whether drinking might be in long-term decline, especially in the key U.S. market. Possible drivers include a trend towards healthier lifestyles. Drinks makers argue falling sales volumes are more to do with the economy than consumers turning against alcohol. IWSR said its data could not rule out fundamental behaviour change as a factor, but did counter the widespread narrative that there has already been a historic shift away from drinking. "We're not at any sort of historic low," Marten Lodewijks, president of IWSR told Reuters, adding it will likely take years to determine whether the current decline is due to economic cycles or a long-term shift in consumer habits. IWSR, at least, thinks short-term conditions including huge pressures on consumer finances from high interest rates and inflation or political turbulence are bigger drivers. Its data also shows that steep declines in volumes of alcohol sold are less dramatic when converted to weekly drinks per person, which better accounts for shifts away from high-volume drinks like beer to lower-volume spirits, Lodewijks said. He also pointed to separate IWSR survey data that showed increases in the number of Gen Z respondents that reported recent drinking between 2023 and 2025. This indicated the cohort did not shun alcohol more than older generations despite widely being seen as leading the shift away from drinking. Other surveys focused on drinking among younger consumers have registered declines. But analysts including Laurence Whyatt at Barclays say other data, including Gen Z spending on alcohol as a portion of income, supports the idea that economic pressures play a big role in how much they drink. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/are-americans-drinking-less-new-data-says-yes-not-by-much-2025-12-04/

2025-12-04 05:58

Macron in Beijing for fourth state visit to China French President being accompanied by large business delegation Urged China's Xi to cooperate on geopolitics, trade, environment Xi told France to maintain its independence in geopolitics BEIJING/PARIS, Dec 4 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron urged Chinese leader Xi Jinping to boost cooperation on geopolitics, trade and the environment, as the European Union seeks China's help in ending the war in Ukraine and Beijing looks for economic wins from U.S. tariffs. On his fourth state visit, Macron is walking a delicate tightrope, trying to reduce France's massive trade deficit with China and secure industrial jobs at home to bolster his legacy, without antagonising the world's second-largest economy. Sign up here. China, for its part, wants to ease trade frictions with the 27-strong EU over its heavily subsidised electric vehicle industry, while presenting itself as a more reliable market to the U.S. for economies hit by President Donald Trump's tariffs. "The imbalances we see accumulating today are not sustainable, they carry the risk of triggering a financial crisis and threaten our ability to grow together," Macron told his host during their Thursday meeting at Beijing's Great Hall of the People. "There are solutions," he said, calling for rules that were fairer and stronger, rather than based on "survival of the fittest." Xi told Macron their countries should follow their own geopolitical paths. "No matter how the external environment changes, our two countries should always demonstrate the independence and strategic vision of major powers," he said. However, no major business deals were signed at a ceremony between Xi and Macron, who was traveling with a big business delegation. Nothing was said of a package of Airbus (AIR.PA) , opens new tab orders that the group has discussed with Beijing for months and is often tied to diplomatic visits. The Chinese leader was not expected to approve the long-anticipated 500-jet Airbus order, as that would weaken Beijing's leverage during trade talks with the U.S., which is pressing for new Boeing purchase commitments. Top executives from Airbus (AIR.PA) , opens new tab, France's largest bank BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) , opens new tab, electrical giant Schneider (SCHN.PA) , opens new tab and train maker Alstom (ALSO.PA) , opens new tab, along with leaders of the French dairy and poultry industry groups, have joined Macron in China. WIDER POWER DYNAMICS AT PLAY Macron, who like other European leaders has been pleading in vain with Beijing to lean on Moscow to end the war in Ukraine, repeated his call on Thursday. "I hope China will join our call and our efforts to at least reach a ceasefire as soon as possible and a moratorium on strikes targeting critical infrastructure," he said. "It's key as winter is coming." Earlier this month, China offered its assurances to Russia of China's continued support. Xi said China remained committed to peace in Ukraine. Xi on Friday will accompany Macron to southwestern China's Sichuan province, lavish treatment considering Xi seldom joins visiting world leaders once they leave Beijing. Macron has also treated Xi to provincial outings when he came to France. But despite the apparent bonhomie between the two men, analysts say wider power dynamics between Europe and China were at play. Xi is unlikely to lift the minimum prices required for most French brandy sales in China, given that the anti-dumping probe that led to the price rule was launched in response to the wider EU's decision to impose import tariffs on Chinese EVs. An easing of Chinese duties on EU pork shipments is also not expected, as Beijing seeks to pressure Brussels into agreeing to a minimum price plan for its EVs. Xi reiterated China's support for peace in Gaza and announced a further $100 million in aid to the Palestinians for reconstruction, although far below the 1.6 billion euros ($1.87 billion) the EU pledged in April for the next three years. China's top leader also encouraged Macron to deepen cooperation in aerospace and nuclear energy, as well as in artificial intelligence, the green economy and biopharmaceuticals. The two leaders signed 12 cooperation agreements following their talks, covering population ageing, nuclear energy, and panda conservation, but without specifying their monetary total. BIG BUSINESS Macron in the past has sought to project a robust European front in dealing with China, pushing Brussels to deploy protectionist counter-measures to slow the flood of subsidised Chinese goods hammering European industry. The EU's goods trade deficit with China has ballooned by nearly 60% since 2019, while France's trade balance with the $19 trillion economy continues to widen. Macron also raised European concerns with China's move to restrict exports of critical minerals. Beijing's threat of new curbs on rare-earth exports to the West in October, on top of restrictions announced in April, has caused fresh panic in European car, clean energy and semiconductor sectors all heavily dependent on them. "It is essential to create an environment of trust and to deal with every instability risk in supply chains," Macron said. China is France's seventh-largest trading partner, buying around $35 billion in goods each year, according to Chinese customs data. About 10% of those products are cosmetics, with aircraft parts and alcoholic spirits among other key exports. For its part, France takes some $45 billion worth of Chinese products, mostly low-value parcels through online platforms like Shein selling cheap clothes, accessories and gadgets direct from Chinese factories, thanks to an EU customs waiver on purchases below 150 euros ($174.86). ($1 = 0.8579 euros) https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-president-xi-jinping-met-french-president-emmanual-macron-beijing-2025-12-04/

2025-12-04 05:47

MUMBAI, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Uncertainty over the timing of the U.S.–India trade deal is fuelling rupee volatility and the absence of a quick agreement could push the currency to as low as 92 per dollar, the head of treasury at HDFC Bank said. The rupee fell to an all-time low of 90.42 on Thursday, extending an eight-month-long slide that has made it Asia's worst-performing currency. Multiple headwinds, from a wider trade gap to weak investment flows, have sapped dollar inflows into the world's fifth-largest economy. Sign up here. "The current account deficit is increasing, there are outflows from local equities so in the genuine supply side (of dollars) there is an issue which is coming in," said Arup Rakshit, group head of treasury at HDFC Bank, India's biggest private lender by market capitalisation. Economists at the bank expect India's current account deficit to worsen to 1.4% of GDP in the second half of fiscal year 2026, from 0.8% in the first half. Foreign investors, meanwhile, have pulled out $17 billion from local stocks this year so far. "If the trade deal with the U.S. happens in the near future, then the rupee may quickly stabilise. Else the rupee could hover between 90 and 92," Rakshit said. The South Asian currency has declined more than 5% over the year so far, even as India's economy held strong, underscoring the divergence in the country's external and domestic sectors. "The market is also waiting to see how the monetary policy committee reacts, whether there is a rate cut or not because that can also have its own challenges with the currency," Rakshit said. The Reserve Bank of India is slated to announce its decision on Friday. While economists had anticipated a rate cut by the central bank, traders in the rupee swaps market have scaled back wagers on policy easing following the rupee's slide. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-largest-private-lender-sees-rupee-falling-92-absence-quick-us-trade-deal-2025-12-04/

2025-12-04 05:36

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter The greenback is getting a reprieve as monetary authorities in Asia's biggest economies signal discomfort with weakness in the U.S. currency, which hit a five-week low this week. Sign up here. The U.S. dollar index has snapped a nine-day losing streak, last rising 0.1%, and precious metals have retreated, with silver cooling off from a record high of $58.98 hit on Wednesday. The Chinese yuan pulled back from the strongest levels against the dollar in more than a year after the central bank set a weaker-than-expected official midpoint for the sixth consecutive session, indicating caution over the renminbi's rapid appreciation. Meanwhile, yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds pulled back from record highs after Japan's chief cabinet secretary said the government is closely watching market moves. Longer-dated bond yields had hit fresh peaks ahead of an expected rate hike from the Bank of Japan later this month. The jawboning came as BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda tempered expectations over how far the central bank would raise interest rates, saying there was uncertainty over the path ahead due to the difficulty estimating the country's neutral rate. An auction of 30-year JGBs drew the highest demand in more than six years as record yields lured buyers, adding to the sense of relief in Tokyo over investor appetite to hold government debt. The Indian rupee also weakened to a record against the greenback, breaking past the 90 to the dollar mark and adding pressure to the Reserve Bank of India when it meets on Friday and is expected to cut interest rates. Equity markets have had a tepid session, with stocks off 0.1% outside of Japan, where the Nikkei 225 is surging 1.8%, led by a blowout 12.4% gain for Fanuc Corp (6954.T) , opens new tab. The industrial robot maker's shares have surged since they announced a collaboration with Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab earlier this week. In early European trades, pan-region futures were up 0.6%, German DAX futures rose 0.5% and FTSE futures were up 0.3%. Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: Economic data: Euro Zone: HCOB Construction PMI for November, Retail Sales for October Germany: HCOB Construction PMI for November France: HCOB Construction PMI for November Italy: HCOB Construction PMI for November U.K.: S&P Global Construction PMI for November Debt auctions: France: 9-year, 15-year and 30-year government debt U.K.: 14-year government debt https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-12-04/

2025-12-04 05:14

Dollar index higher on day but rate cut bets weigh US weekly jobless claims at lowest level in more than three years Yen supported by rate hike expectations Bitcoin takes breather, slips 2% NEW YORK, Dec 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar edged up against a basket of currencies on Thursday but stayed close to the five-week low touched earlier in the session as investors braced for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Investors widely expect a rate cut when the Fed meets next week and will be watching for signals on the policy path ahead. Traders are pricing nearly a 90% chance of a quarter-point rate cut next week, LSEG data showed. Sign up here. "Traders are doubling down on bets the Fed will cut rates and stop short of delivering an overtly-hawkish message at next week’s meeting," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was up 0.1% at 99.02, on pace to snap a 9-day losing steak. It remained near a five-week low of 98.765 and was down about 9% for the year. The euro was down 0.2% to $1.1649. The European currency remains supported by data on Wednesday, which showed business activity in the euro zone expanded at its fastest pace in 30 months in November. U.S. data on Thursday that showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to the lowest level in more than three years last week, allaying fears of a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions, did little to sway expectations for a Fed rate cut next week. The dollar also has come under pressure in recent days as investors have also been weighing the prospect of White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett taking over as Fed Chair after Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Hassett is expected to push for more rate cuts. U.S. President Donald Trump said this week he will unveil his pick to succeed Powell early next year, extending a months-long selection process despite previously claiming he had already decided on a candidate. A move to appoint Hassett could pressure the dollar, analysts have said, with bond investors expressing concerns to the U.S. Treasury that Hassett could aggressively cut rates to align with Trump's preferences, the Financial Times reported. Still, investors remained hesitant to press bearish bets on the dollar. "Stepping in front of the train wouldn’t be wise at this juncture, but current levels of dollar bearishness could be difficult to sustain into early 2026," Corpay's Schamotta said. YEN REBOUND The yen was up 0.2% at 155.015 per dollar, close to its strongest since November 17, on expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise rates when it meets later this month. Three government officials told Reuters that the BOJ is likely to raise rates in December, although what comes after remains uncertain, with markets only fully pricing in one more rate hike next year and around a 50% chance of another. "A still-cautious BOJ, attractive carry for long dollar/yen and persistent topside pressure to JGB yields on potential fiscal expansion is likely to keep the pressure on yen weakness," Chidu Narayanan, head of macro strategy in APAC at Wells Fargo, said. Sterling fell 0.2% to $1.3333, but was not far from its highest point since October 24 as an upward revision of business activity data painted a brighter picture of the economy. Leading cryptocurrency bitcoin took a breather after rising more than 8% over the last two sessions, slipping 1.7% to $92,142. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-weak-with-rate-cut-enthusiasm-intact-euro-7-week-high-2025-12-04/

2025-12-04 04:52

MUMBAI, Dec 4 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee ended above the 90 per dollar level after hitting a record low on Thursday, as dollar sales from multiple foreign banks, likely on account of inflows, helped the currency snap a six-session losing streak. The rupee fell to 90.42 early in the session before reversing course to end up 0.2% at 89.9750. Sign up here. Multiple headwinds, from a wider trade gap to weak investment flows amid stalled trade talks with the U.S., have sapped dollar inflows into the world's fifth-largest economy and made the rupee Asia's worst performing currency. India's central bank will tolerate a weaker currency as inflows dry up, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with central bank's thinking. On the day, dollar sales from foreign banks picked up in the latter half, which alongside likely selling interest in the non-deliverable forwards market helped the rupee recover, traders said. Two traders also flagged dollar offers from state-run banks. "Given today's price action, think the confidence on taking long bets (on USD/INR) will diminish heading into the monetary policy decision," a senior trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. The Reserve Bank of India's policy decision, due on Friday, will be keenly watched for the rate action, measures on banking system liquidity and commentary on the rupee's slump. Analysts expect the rupee to continue facing headwinds in the near-term but ING says that the currency could stage a meaningful reversal should the trade talks turn favourable, "making it one of the few high-yielders with upside potential in 2026." Asian currencies were mostly weaker on the day while the dollar index traded near a five-week low after lacklustre U.S. data cemented the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Odds of a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut are currently at 87%, per CME's FedWatch tool. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-hits-record-low-forward-premiums-surge-weakening-bias-2025-12-04/