2025-08-18 06:37

Aug 18 (Reuters) - There seems to be very little standing in the way of stock-market bulls right now, but what follows a U.S./Russia summit in Alaska, a central bank shin-dig in Wyoming and the outcome of Bolivia's election may imbue them with some caution. Here's your week ahead from Rocky Swift in Tokyo; Suzanne McGee and Rodrigo Campos in New York and Dhara Ranasinghe and Naomi Rovnick in London. Sign up here. 1/ BEGINNING OF THE END? Following Friday's meeting between Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, it's the turn of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders to meet the U.S. President later on Monday , opens new tab to map out a peace deal. The fear is Trump could try to pressure Kyiv into accepting a settlement favourable to Moscow. Zelenskiy has already all but rejected the outline of Putin's proposals, including for Ukraine to give up the rest of its eastern Donetsk region, of which it currently controls a quarter. No doubt, markets will be hesitant to price in an end to the war until a ceasefire, at least, is agreed. Europe, meanwhile, is unlikely to embrace Russia, even if peace returns to Ukraine. Defence stocks are likely to remain an investor favourite for now. 2/ JACKSON HOLE-IN-ONE It's officially summer in financial markets. Q2 earnings are out, the next crop of major economic data isn't until early September and many money managers and traders are heading out to the beaches for a break. There is just one thing to worry about: Jackson Hole. The Wyoming resort plays host to the annual central bankers' schmoozefest and will include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell among its attendees. The conference takes place as stocks hover near record levels, and Trump continues to take pot-shots at Powell. Jackson Hole has the potential to be disruptive. Any hint from Powell that a September rate cut isn't happening and markets could sell off hard, while an overly upbeat tone from the Fed chair may feed more euphoria. “And bull markets die in euphoria,” says Steve Sosnick, strategist at trading firm IBKR. 3/ STAGFLATION NATION As global stocks rally, everything from weak U.S. jobs data to trouble at the top of the Federal Reserve has been a reason to bet on U.S. rate cuts, meaning it's not been profitable to be bearish. About 60% of global investors surveyed by BofA think U.S. stagflation could be the dominant global market regime within three months. A basket of stocks that do well in stagflationary environments, where growth slows as inflation accelerates, has been outpaced by Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) , opens new tab this year, Societe Generale strategists reckon. Next week's business surveys, which can show economic trends months before they appear in official data, will offer more clues about whether U.S. tariffs are driving the world's largest towards stagflation. SocGen, however, expects Fed rate cuts to inflate a stock-market bubble that might not pop until at least next year. 4/ OUTLIER With nearly every central bank looking to cut rates to give their economies a soft landing, the Bank of Japan stands apart in its mission to raise borrowing costs - in theory. So, next Friday's inflation data will be in focus for any sign of when the BOJ's long-pledged tightening cycle will resume. The previous reading of the core consumer price index (CPI) showed an annual 3.3% increase in June, remaining above the BOJ's 2% target for over three years. No bank went harder or longer with quantitative easing than the BOJ. But the long road towards normalisation has been complicated by uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and concerns about whether Japan was seeing the right kind of price increases. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has justified slower rate hikes because underlying inflation, which focuses on domestic demand and wages, remains below the central bank's target. 5/ PICK ME Centrist senator Rodrigo Paz was leading Bolivia's presidential election late on Sunday. The election kicks off a string of national and local votes across Latin America that extends into late next year, when behemoth Brazil votes to elect a new (or sitting) president. After 2022's "pink tide" brought left-leaning governments to power in Chile, Colombia and Brazil, investors want to see if voters will return to more market-friendly right-wingers. Ahead of the Bolivian election, the country's bonds rallied on hopes that political change could bring the economy back from the brink. Argentina's local elections in September and October are seen as a gauge of the popularity of President Javier Milei's radical economic transformation. Chile votes for a president in November, while next year Colombia elects its congress in March and president in May. Peru holds a presidential election in April and Brazil does so in October 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-themes-update-1-graphic-2025-08-15/

2025-08-18 06:31

TOKYO, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Japanese steel lobby groups said on Monday they have requested the early introduction of measures to prevent the evasion of anti-dumping tariffs aimed at protecting domestic industries from unfair imports. The move comes as record steel exports from China, the world's largest producer, have sparked a protectionist backlash globally, with almost 40 countries starting anti-dumping investigations since January last year. Sign up here. The Japan Iron and Steel Federation and four other industry groups said swift action is needed as countries such as China attempt to avoid anti-dumping tariffs by routing exports through third countries or conducting minimal processing to evade duties. Japan has recently launched an anti-dumping investigation into hot-dip galvanized steel from China and South Korea, following a similar probe, kicked in July, into nickel-based stainless cold-rolled steel sheets and strips imported from China and Taiwan. Even if anti-dumping measures are imposed, without steps to prevent circumvention, "their effectiveness will be significantly undermined," Takanari Yamashita, managing director of the steel federation, told reporters. He stressed that the aim is to strengthen the anti-dumping system and ensure fair competition, not to pursue protectionism. According to the federation, 18 of the Group of Twenty (G20) nations already have anti-circumvention systems in place, leaving only Japan and Indonesia without such measures. Currently, if Japan seeks to address circumvention, it must launch an entirely new anti-dumping investigation. For this reason, industry groups are urging the government to establish separate tax rules from existing anti-dumping tariffs under the tax reform planned for the next fiscal year starting April 1. They are also calling for more trade investigators and improvements to the probe system. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/japan-steel-groups-seek-reforms-stop-tariff-evasion-china-exports-surge-2025-08-18/

2025-08-18 06:24

Zelenskiy flies to Washington on Monday to meet Trump Putin offers land swaps, security guarantees at Alaska summit Aug 18 (Reuters) - Gold rose after hitting a two-week low, supported by lower U.S. Treasury yields as investors awaited U.S. President Donald Trump's meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders to discuss a peace deal with Russia. Spot gold gained 0.4% to $3,348.59 per ounce, as of 0609 GMT on Monday, after hitting its lowest level since August 1. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% to $3,394.90. "Gold was on the back foot to start the day, but...was able to reverse course with buyers stepping up to around $3,330 as a value play. U.S. treasury yields gave up some of Friday's gains which also helped to make life easier for the gold price," KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer said. European leaders are set to join Zelenskiy for discussions with Trump. Russia would relinquish tiny pockets of occupied Ukraine and Kyiv would cede swathes of its eastern land which Moscow has been unable to capture, under peace proposals discussed by Russia's Vladimir Putin and Trump at their Alaska summit, sources briefed on Moscow's thinking said. "We are seeing limited moves in either direction ahead of what could be some lively meetings in the White House this week with Zelenskiy back in town," Waterer said. Meanwhile, benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell from more than two-week highs. Investors are also looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Economists polled by Reuters largely expect the Fed to announce a rate cut in September, its first this year, with a possible second cut by the year-end. Non-yielding bullion, considered a safe-haven assets during periods of uncertainity, tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environment. Elsewhere, spot silver edged up 0.1% to $38.02 per ounce, platinum gained 0.1% to $1,336.79 and palladium was up 0.1% to $1,113.52. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-rebounds-two-week-low-trump-zelenskiy-meeting-focus-2025-08-18/

2025-08-18 06:21

LONDON, Aug 18 (Reuters) - News that Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750.SZ) , opens new tab has suspended operations at its giant Jianxiawo mine has lit a fire under the lithium market. The CME lithium carbonate contract has surged by 27% since the start of August, breaking a long-running downtrend, with the bull momentum sweeping through the shares of listed producers. Sign up here. The market reaction is not irrational. Jianxiawo is China's largest lithium mine and even CATL's anticipated three-month suspension will make a significant dent in a massively over-supplied market. Nor is it the only Chinese producer in the lithium hub of Yichun facing heightened bureaucratic scrutiny. But the price surge looks over-exuberant. Any underlying market signal has been swamped by speculative excess on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange. Guangzhou only started trading lithium carbonate futures in July 2023 but has muscled out the Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange as China's primary price reference point for the battery metal. Wuxi was a problematic indicator of China's physical lithium market and Guangzhou is now also battling to contain a speculative frenzy. Guangzhou's lithium contract notched up turnover of nearly 24 million lots in July, far exceeding the previous monthly record, while open interest climbed to an all-time high of 699,164 lots. Trading activity in the options contract mushroomed from 2.9 million lots in June to 8.6 million last month. The exchange's volume figures denote both buy and sell transactions but, even allowing for this double-count, July's turnover was many multiples the size of a global market that is growing fast but still only amounts to around 1.6 million tons each year. The Guangzhou exchange implemented position limits, specifically targeting non-exchange members, at the end of July after the September contract had traded limit-up on two consecutive days. The measures seemed to be damping down the speculative heat until CATL made its announcement on August 11, at which stage the bull flames erupted again with the lithium price again going limit-up over the next two days. While some market participants, particularly industrial players, may have been aware of CATL's licence problems, the price volatility in itself has acted as a magnet for local speculators chasing the next big thing. Such crowd surges are commonplace in the Chinese commodities futures landscape and have the same effect as a giant momentum fund feeding on a fast-moving market. Last month's price action on the Guangzhou lithium contract was "a masterclass in sentiment-driven volatility," according to Paul Lusty, Head of Battery Raw Materials at price assessment agency Fastmarkets. Fastmarkets' view is that "beneath the surface demand remains tepid, inventories high and buyers cautious, underscoring a disconnect between price action and market reality." How much has actually changed in the wake of CATL's confirmation it needs to reapply for its expired mining licence? Chinese speculators are betting that it is symptomatic of a change in government policy. Beijing has taken aim at what it calls "disorderly price competition" with state media amplifying the attack on involution, a now-popular reference to competition so fierce it becomes self-destructive. Lithium is not the only market to have interpreted this as presaging a broader clamp-down on chronic excess capacity in China's industrial base. There have been equally exuberant rallies in steel, coal and polysilicon, a building-block for the over-heating solar panel sector. Whether this is really a new dawn for the bombed-out lithium price remains to be seen. The focus of the market, particularly in China, will be on whether CATL gets its new mining licence and what happens to the other producers clustered in Yichun. All of them are under scrutiny for possible discrepancies between their licensed mining rights and actual extraction rates, according to consultancy Project Blue. In a market that has been weighed down by excess production capacity, any sign of producer restraint, whether voluntary or involuntary, is a price positive. However, just how positive is going to depend on the Chinese speculators massing in the Guangzhou lithium market. The exchange's lithium futures contract has already recorded over 12 million trades so far in August. The speculative froth is still there. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lithiums-rally-is-super-charged-with-speculative-spice-2025-08-18/

2025-08-18 06:07

Aug 18 (Reuters) - Amsterdam-based cryptocurrency service provider Amdax plans to launch a bitcoin treasury company called AMBTS (Amsterdam Bitcoin Treasury Strategy) on the Dutch stock exchange, Amdax said on Monday. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT: Sign up here. Amdax's plans highlight the growing appeal of bitcoin, which has hit record highs this month. KEY QUOTE: "With now over 10% of bitcoin supply held by corporations, governments and institutions, we think the time is right to establish a bitcoin treasury company with the aim to obtain a listing on Euronext Amsterdam, as one of the leading exchanges in Europe," said Amdax CEO Lucas Wensing. BY THE NUMBERS: Bitcoin has risen nearly 32% so far in 2025, reaching record highs, on the back of regulatory victories for the sector following President Donald Trump's return to the White House. Trump has called himself the "crypto president" and his family has made a series of forays into the sector over the past year. Amdax and AMBTS plan to raise capital from a number of private investors in an initial financing round, and the long-term ambition of AMBTS is to own at minimum 1% of all bitcoin over time. https://www.reuters.com/business/dutch-crypto-firm-amdax-aims-launch-bitcoin-treasury-company-euronext-2025-08-18/

2025-08-18 05:48

Q2 GDP growth at 2.8% y/y vs forecast of 2.5% 2025 growth forecast narrowed to 1.8% to 2.3% from 1.3% to 2.3% Growth to slow in second half due to U.S. tariffs BANGKOK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Thailand's economy expanded faster than expected in the second quarter on strong export growth ahead of U.S. tariffs taking full effect, but momentum is likely to slow over the rest of the year, the state planning agency said on Monday. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew 2.8% in the April-June quarter from a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Council said , opens new tab, beating a Reuters poll forecast of 2.5%, but still below the 3.2% annual increase in the first three months. Sign up here. The economy grew 3% annually in the first half, and the council adjusted its full-year forecast to 1.8% to 2.3%, from an earlier estimate of 1.3% to 2.3%. "Exports and manufacturing improved, along with clarity over reciprocal tariffs, so the Thai economy should expand more than our projections in May," the council's head, Danucha Pichayanan, told a news conference. The U.S. tariff on Thai imports has been set at 19%, in line with , opens new tab regional peers. "Growth should be good in the remainder (of the year), but will be lower than the previous two quarters," Danucha added. Last year's annual growth of 2.5% lagged other countries in the region. The council raised its 2025 export growth forecast to 5.5% from 1.8%, after a 15% year-on-year rise in the first half, driven by shippers racing to beat U.S. tariffs. However, exports are expected to taper in the second half. The United States was Thailand's biggest export market last year, accounting for 18.3% of total shipments, with a value of $55 billion, but there are still uncertainties relating to tariffs on transshipments , opens new tab via Thailand from third countries. Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of Capital Markets Research at Kasikornbank, said he predicts a final growth rate of just 1.5% for 2025. "Growth is seen to decelerate markedly post the sugar high of exports front loading," he said, adding that waning tourist numbers and household debt would also weigh heavily on the economy. The NESDC on Monday also lowered its forecast for foreign tourist arrivals this year by 10% to 33 million. On Friday, parliament passed the government's 3.78 trillion baht ($116.6 billion) budget bill for the 2026 fiscal year starting on October 1, which is expected to boost economic activity. The central bank last week also cut its key interest rate , opens new tab by a quarter point to a near three-year low of 1.50%, with more easing expected later this year. ($1 = 32.42 baht) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailands-q2-growth-beats-forecast-faces-slowdown-h2-tariffs-2025-08-18/