2023-02-10 09:36

Market Update - 10 February 2023 EUR/USD is expected to deliver more downside to near 1.0700 amid the risk-aversion theme. The USD Index has got strength as investors are worried about higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve. European Central Bank is still favoring a continuation of a bumper policy tightening spell despite softened German Inflation. EUR/USD is struggling to find direction beyond the 50% and 61.8% Fibo retracements gamut. (FXStreet) EUR/GBP gains some traction and snaps a four-day losing streak to over a one-week low. A rather unimpressive UK GDP report remains supportive of the modest intraday uptick. Signs of easing inflationary pressures in the Eurozone keep a lid on any further gains. (FXStreet) NZD/USD has printed a fresh day low at 0.6315 on lower-than expected China CPI data. China’s PPI has reported a deflation by 0.8% higher than the projections of 0.5% and the former release of 0.7%. The upbeat US labor market could propel consumer spending ahead. (FXStreet) USD/JPY is marching towards 132.00 amid a risk-off mood propelled ahead of US inflation data. The US inflation could display an upside surprise as the jobless rate is at a multi-decade low. Japan’s government might reveal the new BoJ governor nominee and two deputy governor nominees on Feb. 14 (FXStreet) GBP/USD remains sidelined after reversing from weekly top, prints mild losses to defy three-day winning streak. Cautious mood ahead of key US data, recession woes and BoE talks weigh on Cable pair. Downbeat Fedspeak, softer US data allow GBP/USD to grind higher. Preliminary readings of UK Q4 GDP, US consumer-centric data for January eyed for clear directions. (FXStreet) GBP/JPY clings to mild losses following UK data dump. Preliminary readings of UK Q4 GDP matches 0.0% market forecasts. Yield curve inversion renews recession woes but BoJ talks defend pair buyers. Concerns surrounding the next BoJ leadership, economic slowdown fears are the key to follow for fresh impulse. (FXStreet) USD/CAD pauses two-day uptrend but remains sidelined amid cautious markets. Oil price struggles amid recession woes, softer US Dollar. Canada employment data will be crucial after BoC’s Macklem teased a pause in rate hikes. Preliminary readings of US Michigan Consumer Sentiment, 5-year inflation expectations eyed to forecast next week’s US inflation data. (FXStreet) AUD/USD picks up bids to rebound from intraday low amid sluggish markets. Traders pare recent losses amid market’s cautious mood ahead of the key US data. RBA SoMP, China inflation numbers failed to impress AUD/USD traders. Mixed plays of recession and central bank talks offer inactive session ahead of US consumer-centric data. (FXStreet) AUD/JPY has slipped sharply from 91.40 despite RBA continuing a hawkish monetary policy ahead. Australian inflation has driven higher in December led by rising fuel prices, series demand, and electricity prices. Japan’s government is planning to announce the new BoJ governor nominee and two deputy governor nominees on Feb. 14. (FXStreet) USD/MXN pares Banxico-led losses ahead of US consumer-centric data. Banxico surprised markets with 0.50% rate hike versus 25 bps expected. Recession fears seem to underpin US Dollar rebound after Fed talks, US statistics weighed on the greenback. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, inflation expectations eyed ahead of next week’s US CPI. (FXStreet) USD/INR remains sidelined between four-month-old resistance line and 50-DMA. A convergence of 100-DMA, ascending trend line from late January appears a tough nut to crack for the pair sellers. Indian Rupee sellers need successful break of 82.80 to retake control. (FXStreet) USD/CNH has sensed selling pressure and dropped from around 6.8000 as China’s monthly CPI shows deflation. Deflation in China’s monthly CPI and PPI might compel authorities to keep the policy expansionary. The USD Index is aiming to reclaim the critical resistance of 103.00 as the market mood is quite risk-averse. (FXStreet) The index regains some poise following Thursday’s strong sell-off. Further consolidation appears likely below the 104.00 region. The Flash Consumer Sentiment, Fed’s Waller, Harker come later. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. a bundle of its main rival currencies, navigates with humble gains in the 103.30 region ahead of the opening bell in the old continent on Friday. (FXStreet) Considering advanced prints from CME Group for crude oil futures markets, open interest shrank by around 2.5K contracts on Thursday, reversing at the same time the previous daily build. Volume followed suit and dropped for the second session in a row, now by around 62.6K contracts. (FXStreet) Gold price remains sidelined within short-term key trading range amid contradicting fundamentals, cautious mood. Fed policymakers seem less interested in backing aggressive rate hikes amid mixed employment data. Recession woes underpin US Dollar demand and weigh on XAU/USD ahead of the key US consumer-centric statistics. (FXStreet) Silver price portrays corrective bounce near 10-week low. Clear downside break of weekly trading range, sustained trading below 200-HMA favor XAG/USD sellers. Silver buyers should remain cautious unless renewing monthly high. (FXStreet) Source: FXStreet, DailyFX Disclaimer: This information does not represent a BUY or SELL recommendation on the stock covered. Traders and Investors are encouraged to do their own analysis on stocks instead of blindly following any Trading calls raised by various parties on the Internet.

2023-02-09 09:29

Market Update - 09 February 2023 EUR/GBP has scaled above 0.8880 after a recovery move as bets for further ECB policy tightening is accelerating. ECB Knot believes that Eurozone headline inflation has peaked now amid falling energy prices. The German HICP is expected to increase to a double-digit figure on an annual basis. (FXStreet) NZD/USD gains strong positive traction on Thursday and rallies to the top end of the weekly range. A positive risk tone undermines the safe-haven USD and seems to benefit the risk-sensitive Kiwi. The prospects for additional rate hikes by the Fed could limit the USD losses and cap the major. (FXStreet) AUD/USD stays depressed after reversing from weekly high the previous day. Fed policymakers, US diplomats highlight inflation fears to justify higher rates. Easing US-China fears contrasts with Australia’s drive to remove Chinese cameras from government offices and probe sentiment. US Dollar grinds higher even as yields remain pressured. (FXStreet) EUR/USD is aiming to stretch upside to near 1.0740 ahead of German Inflation data. Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates further as the upbeat labor market might propel consumer spending. Higher German Inflation data will bolster the case of bumper interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank ahead. EUR/USD is auctioning in an Ascending Triangle that indicates a volatility contraction. (FXStreet) USD/JPY reverses the previous day’s recovery from weekly low, sidelined of late. Firmer RSI, sustained break of weekly resistance line keeps Yen buyer hopeful. Bulls need validation from 131.70 to keep the reins. (FXStreet) USD/CAD picks up bids to refresh intraday high and approach three-week-old resistance line. Hawkish Fed concerns underpin US Dollar rebound, weigh on Oil price. BoC’s Macklem contrasts with hawkish Fed comments and advocates a pause in rate hike trajectory. (FXStreet) USD/JPY has strongly surpassed 131.50 amid fresh concerns about further interest rate hike from the Fed. Fed Waller considers the US labor market extremely robust and believes that it could fuel consumer spending ahead. Investors are getting anxious ahead of the release of the contenders' list for BoJ Kuroda’s successor. (FXStreet) USD/CHF prints three-day downtrend to approach short-term key support line. Impending bear cross between 50-HMA and 100-HMA keep sellers hopeful amid mostly steady RSI. Bullish MACD signals, one-week-old ascending trend line hold the gate for bear’s entry. (FXStreet) GBP/USD grinds higher around intraday top during three-day uptrend. Broad US Dollar weakness, cautious optimism underpin recovery moves despite mixed UK fundamentals. British housing market flashes red signals, workers’ strikes are on the top. BOE Governor Bailey’s testimony, preliminary readings for UK Q4 GDP eyed amid a light calendar for Thursday. (FXStreet) AUD/JPY bulls are in play and we could see an advance on 91.70 in the coming sessions/days ahead. The 61.8% Fibonacci near 93.00 is key on the upside. (FXStreet) USD/INR remains pressured for the second consecutive day amid broad US Dollar weakness. RBI rejects dovish hike concerns even as matching market forecasts of 0.25% rate hike. Cautious optimism in Asia, downbeat US Treasury bond yields favor Indian Rupee buyers. (FXStreet) The index gives away some gains in the low-103.00s. The dollar appears stuck within the weekly range. Usual weekly Initial Claims will be the salient event later in the session. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. a bundle of its main rival currencies, trades on the defensive in the 103.20 region on Thursday. (FXStreet) CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted traders added around 4.3K contracts to their open interest positions on Wednesday, reversing the previous daily drop and resuming the uptrend at the same time. Volume, instead, kept the erratic performance and shrank by around 201.1K contracts. (FXStreet) Open interest in natural gas futures markets extended the uptrend and rose by around 5.7K contracts on Wednesday according to preliminary readings from CME Group. On the other hand, volume went down by around 75.6K contracts, partially offsetting the previous sharp daily build. (FXStreet) Gold price fade the weekly rebound within a bearish chart pattern. Federal Reserve officials, United States Treasury Secretary highlight inflation concerns to defend higher rates and weigh on XAU/USD. Easing fears of US-China tension over the balloon shooting, light calendar probes XAU/USD traders. (FXStreet) Silver gains positive traction for the second straight day, though lacks follow-through. The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for further losses. A sustained weakness below the $22.00 mark is needed to confirm a bearish break. (FXStreet) Source: FXStreet, DailyFX Disclaimer: This information does not represent a BUY or SELL recommendation on the stock covered. Traders and Investors are encouraged to do their own analysis on stocks instead of blindly following any Trading calls raised by various parties on the Internet.

2023-02-08 09:23

Market Update - 08 February 2023 EUR/USD steadies during the first positive day in five, mildly bid of late. US President Biden tries to convince markets of American competitiveness versus China. Mixed comments from Fed speakers, retreat in US Treasury bond yields underpins EUR/USD recovery. Comments from central bank officials, risk catalysts eyed amid a light calendar. (FXStreet) USD/JPY has rebounded after dropping below 131.00 following US Biden’s SOTU commentary. US Biden has proposed taxing billionaires by raising the tax slab of corporate buyback four times. A recovery from USD/JPY indicates that the impact of BoJ’s stealth intervention is fading away. (FXStreet) NZD/USD is demonstrating a sideways performance despite improving risk appetite. NZ PM Hipkins has announced that minimum wages will increase in line with inflation. US Biden’s commentary to protect US sovereignty from China might trigger US-China tensions again. (FXStreet) GBP/USD struggles to extend the previous day’s rebound from one-month low, sidelined of late. Oscillators suggest further recovery but death cross on the EMAs and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level probe bulls. Five-week-old horizontal support area offers extra filters to the south. (FXStreet) AUD/USD clings to mild gains during two-day rebound from monthly low. Sustained break of 200-EMA joins upbeat oscillators to favor buyers. Two-week-old horizontal resistance area challenges immediate upside while ascending trend line from late December probes bears. (FXStreet) USD/CAD holds lower ground while defending the previous day’s reversal from 13-day high. US Dollar remains indecisive even as yields retreat, pays little heed to US President Biden’s SOTU amid mixed Fedspeak. BoC’s Macklem hints at a pause in rate hikes but failed to impress pair buyers. Risk catalysts could entertain Loonie traders ahead of Friday’s key jobs report from Canada. (FXStreet) EUR/JPY rebounds from short-term key support confluence amid sluggish markets. Unimpressive oscillators, descending trend line from late December challenge buyers. Multiple hurdles to probe bears past 140.40-30 support confluence. (FXStreet) USD/CHF takes offers to refresh intraday low, down for the second consecutive day. Fed Chair Powell’s hesitance in praising strong US NFP suggests no more than two rate hikes which are already known. Mixed signals surrounding US-China tussles, pullback in yields underpin bearish bias. US President Joe Biden’s SOTU eyed for fresh impulse. (FXStreet) GBP/JPY has witnessed selling pressure after a less-confident pullback to near 158.00. The BoJ made a stealth intervention to cushion the Japanese Yen. UK NIESR has cut its GDP forecasts and sees households in severe financial pain due to the higher cost of living. (FXStreet) The index treads water around 103.30 on Wednesday. Markets appear biased towards the risk complex early in Europe. Weekly Mortgage Applications, Fedspeak next on tap in the docket. Price action around the greenback appears somewhat inconclusive in the low-103.00s when measured by the USD Index (DXY) on Wednesday. (FXStreet) CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted traders scaled back their open interest positions by around 6.2K contracts on Tuesday for the first time since January 19. On the other hand, volume remained choppy and went up by around 183.5K contracts. (FXStreet) Considering advanced figures from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest remained on the rise on Tuesday, this time by around 8.8K contracts. Volume followed suit and increased by around 260.2K contracts after three consecutive daily pullbacks. (FXStreet) Gold price is aiming to recapture $1,880.00 as the risk appetite is improving. Investors have shrugged-off uncertainty from Powell’s speech and US Biden’s SOTU meeting. The Fed might continue keeping rates higher for a longer period as the entire disinflationary process seems complicated. (FXStreet) Silver picks up bids to refresh intraday high, bounces off two-month low. 100-EMA, bearish MACD signals challenge XAG/USD buyers around multi-day low. Convergence of 200-EMA, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level puts a floor under the Silver price. (FXStreet) Source: FXStreet, DailyFX Disclaimer: This information does not represent a BUY or SELL recommendation on the stock covered. Traders and Investors are encouraged to do their own analysis on stocks instead of blindly following any Trading calls raised by various parties on the Internet.

2023-02-07 09:49

Market Update - 07 February 2023 USD/JPY has slipped below 132.50 as risk-on mood attempts recovery amid easing US-China tensions. Anticipation for further continuation of interest rate hikes by the Fed after mammoth labor additions has soared. BoJ’s aggressive market operations have drastically limited the scope for speculation in bond futures. (FXStreet) GBP/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high, snaps three-day downtrend to recover from one-month low. Nearly oversold RSI triggers corrective bounce but bears stay hopeful. Clear downside break of previous key support lines, bearish MACD signals favor sellers. Cable buyers remain confused unless crossing 1.2450 hurdle. (FXStreet) EUR/USD consolidates recent losses around one-month low, probes three-day downtrend. ECB hawks forget last week’s failed attempt to please bulls; upbeat EU data also favors Euro buyers. Receding concerns about US recession, hawkish Fedspeak exerts downside pressure on the pair. Fed Chair Powell, ECB’s Schnabel could entertain traders; Sino-American news is important too. (FXStreet) The index faces some selling pressure near recent tops. US yields also give away part of the recent marked rebound. Chief Powell will take centre stage later in the NA session. The greenback, when measured by the USD Index (DXY), comes under some downside pressure and recedes from tops near 103.80 (February 6) on turnaround Tuesday. (FXStreet) USD/CAD has picked strength after dropping to near 1.3400 as the risk-off impulse has rebounded. Federal Reserve’s Powell might sound hawkish in his commentary amid a fresh rise in the US NFP data. Bank of Canada’s Macklem to dictate rationale behind pausing policy tightening spell. USD/CAD has faced barricades while attempting to deliver a Filling Channel breakout. (FXStreet) A meanwhile correction in NZD/USD is playing out. However, a break of structure can be noted as a bearish bias for the days ahead. NZD/USD was significantly lower after Friday’s outsized US Nonfarm Payrolls print, but the bulls are moving in as the following technical analysis illustrates. (FXStreet) GBP/JPY bulls struggle to keep the reins after two-day uptrend. 10-DMA, 21-DMA and two-month-old resistance line challenge immediate upside amid sluggish MACD. Bears should wait for 61.8% Fibonacci retracement breakdown. (FXStreet) AUD/USD has soared to near 0.6950 as RBA has announced a 25 bps interest rate hike to 3.35%. RBA’s Lowe has announced a fourth consecutive OCR hike by 25 bps to tame the historic inflation. Easing US-China tensions have supported the risk appetite of investors. (FXStreet) AUD/JPY adds to intraday gains even as RBA hiked rates by 0.25%. RBA matches market forecasts but fails to please hawks by expecting softer inflation. BoJ’s Kuroda struggles to push back hawkish bias, MoF Japan confirms market intervention. Sluggish sentiment also acts as an upside filter. (FXStreet) CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted traders added around 28.3K contracts to their open interest positions on Monday, extending further the ongoing uptrend. Volume, instead, kept the erratic activity and dropped by around 115.1K contracts following the previous daily build. (FXStreet) Considering advanced prints from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest rose by around 15.6K contracts at the beginning of the week. On the other hand, volume extended the decline for the third straight session, this time by around 24.8K contracts. (FXStreet) Gold price clings to mild gains while extending the week-start rebound from one-month low. US Dollar bears the burden of market’s cautious optimism to propel XAU/USD rebound. Fed Chair Powell needs to praise recently strong US data to challenge Gold buyers. US President Biden’s SOTU, Sino-American headlines also eyed for immediate directions. (FXStreet) Silver attracts some buying on Tuesday and holds above the 38.2% Fibo. level support. The setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for an eventual breakdown. A sustained strength beyond the 50-day SMA is needed to negate the bearish outlook. (FXStreet) Source: FXStreet, DailyFX Disclaimer: This information does not represent a BUY or SELL recommendation on the stock covered. Traders and Investors are encouraged to do their own analysis on stocks instead of blindly following any Trading calls raised by various parties on the Internet.

2023-02-03 09:42

Market Update - 03 February 2023 GBP/USD remains under some selling pressure for the second successive day on Friday. A dovish assessment of the BoE decision weighs on the GBP amid a modest USD strength. A break below the 1.2200 mark might have set the stage for further losses ahead of NFP. (FXStreet) USD/CAD gains traction for the second straight day and is supported by a combination of factors. Sliding crude oil prices undermines the Loonie and acts as a tailwind amid a modest USD strength. Traders now look forward to the closely-watched US monthly jobs data (NFP) for a fresh impetus. (FXStreet) USD/JPY oscillates in a narrow range and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. A modest USD uptick lends support, though weaker US bond yields cap gains ahead of NFP. Expectations for a hawkish shift by the BoJ underpin the JPY and further act as a headwind. (FXStreet) The index looks to extend the post-ECB rebound. January Nonfarm Payrolls will take centre stage later. Other key data includes the ISM Non-Manufacturing. The USD Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a bundle of its main rivals, advances slightly and retargets the key 102.00 barrier at the end of the week. (FXStreet) USD/CHF is oscillating in a narrow range below 0.9150 as volatility squeezes ahead of US NFP data. The demand for US government bonds is accelerating as the street is considering continuation price index softening. SNB Jordan has confirmed further interest rate hikes amid rising inflationary pressures. (FXStreet) EUR/USD is gauging a cushion around 1.0900 despite the negative market mood. A bear cross, represented by the 20-and 50-EMAs around 1.0927, adds to the downside filters. The RSI (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates more weakness ahead. (FXStreet) AUD/USD edges lower for the second successive day, though lacks follow-through selling. A modest USD strength and the cautious market mood weigh on the risk-sensitive Aussie. Traders keenly await the release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs data (NFP report). (FXStreet) NZD/USD is expected to display back-and-forth action ahead of the US NFP release. The Symmetrical Triangle formation is hinting a sheer volatility squeeze. A range shift by the RSI (14) into the 40.00-60.00 zone from the bullish range of 60.00-80.00 indicates a consolidation ahead. (FXStreet) The oil price has printed a fresh intraday low at $75.80 amid a risk-off market mood ahead of US NFP data. West Texas is auctioning in a markdown phase after Wyckoff’s Inventory Distribution breakdown. The 50-period EMA is acting as a major barrier for the oil bulls. (FXStreet) There is no respite in the downtrend of natural gas prices. Thursday’s negative price action came in tandem with another increase in open interest, leaving the door open to the continuation of the underlying bearish trend. However, the current oversold conditions of the commodity (as per the RSI around 25) could spark a technical bounce in the short term (FXStreet) Thursday’s strong decline in gold prices came in tandem with shrinking open interest. That said, a sustained retracement looks unlikely in the very near term, while the recent support in the $1900 region per ounce troy should hold the downside for the time being. (FXStreet) Silver edges higher on Friday, albeit the intraday uptick lacks follow-through. The overnight failure near the $24.50 supply zone warrants caution for bulls. Sustained break below the $23.00 mark is needed to confirm negative bias. (FXStreet) Source: FXStreet, DailyFX Disclaimer: This information does not represent a BUY or SELL recommendation on the stock covered. Traders and Investors are encouraged to do their own analysis on stocks instead of blindly following any Trading calls raised by various parties on the Internet.

2023-02-02 09:44

Market Update - 02 February 2023 GBP/USD surrenders its modest intraday gains, though the downside remains cushioned. Expectations that the Fed will cut rates later this year weigh on the USD and lend support. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the key BoE policy decision. (FXStreet) EUR/USD advances to fresh highs north of the 1.10000 mark. The pair keeps the bid tone after the FOMC rate hike on Wednesday. The ECB is largely anticipated to hike rates by 50 bps later in the session. (FXStreet) USD/CAD drops to its lowest level since November amid the prevalent USD selling bias. Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates later this year weigh on the Greenback. The overnight slump in oil prices undermines the Loonie and might help limit the slide. (FXStreet) EUR/GBP scales higher for the fourth straight day and touches a fresh multi-month top. Expectations for additional jumbo rate hikes by the ECB continue to underpin the Euro. Speculations that the BoE is nearing the end of the rate-hiking cycle weigh on the GBP. Traders now seem reluctant as the focus shifts to the BoE and the ECB policy decisions. (FXStreet) The index drops to 10-month lows near 100.80. The dollar remains on the defensive post-FOMC event. Initial Claims, Factory Orders next of note in the docket. The greenback, in terms of the USD Index (DXY), adds to the weekly leg lower and breaks below the 101.00 support to print new 10-month lows on Thursday. (FXStreet) USD/JPY prints three-day losing streak despite recent bounce off weekly low. BoJ’s Wakatabe appears determined to tame inflation, praises YCC move. US 10-year Treasury bond yields dribble around two-week low. Second-tier US data, other central bank announcements can please Yen bears before Friday’s US NFP (FXStreet) GBP/JPY seesaws around a fortnight low during three-day downtrend. US 10-year Treasury bond yields dropped the most in two weeks on dovish Fed. Hawkish concerns from BoJ, downbeat UK data and workers’ strikes weigh on prices. BoE is expected to announce 0.50% rate hike but hints for policy pivot will be crucial to watch. (FXStreet) AUD/USD clings to mild gains at multi-day top, sidelined of late. Australia Building Permits came in firmer during December. Market sentiment dwindles as traders lick Fed-induced wounds ahead of ECB, BoE. US Factory Orders, hints for Friday’s NFP could entertain Aussie pair traders. (FXStreet) USD/INR has shown a rebound move as the USD Index has gauged an intermediate cushion around 100.50. Fresh signals of a decline in inflation projections indicate that the Fed might pause the rate hike cycle. The Indian government has trimmed its fiscal deficit target to 5.9% of GDP below the prior target of 6.4%. (FXStreet) USD/CNH pares intraday losses around 13-day low, picking up bids of late. Ascending trend line from June 2022 appears a tough nut to crack for bears amid oversold RSI. 10-DMA guards recovery moves, three-week-old resistance line challenge bulls. (FXStreet) WTI fades bounce off intraday low as sellers poke ascending support line from early December 2022. Downbeat MACD signals favor sellers but RSI conditions suggest limited room towards the south. Multiple EMAs, weekly resistance line highlight $79.30 as the key upside hurdle. (FXStreet) Gold price is facing barricades in extending range towards the north as USD Index is attempting a cushion around 100.50. Analysts at the National Bank of Canada anticipate a policy change by the FOMC in the first quarter of 2023. Going forward, the US NFP data will be of utmost importance. (FXStreet) Silver scales higher for the third successive day and touches a fresh weekly high on Thursday. The formation of a rectangle on the daily chart warrants caution before placing directional bets. The technical setup, however, favours bulls and supports prospects for an eventual breakout. Source: FXStreet, DailyFX Disclaimer: This information does not represent a BUY or SELL recommendation on the stock covered. Traders and Investors are encouraged to do their own analysis on stocks instead of blindly following any Trading calls raised by various parties on the Internet