2024-09-04 10:00

LONDON, Sept 4 (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth would likely get the biggest boost in the coming two years from the Democrats, headed by Kamala Harris, winning the White House and Congress in this November's elections, according to Goldman Sachs. Under a Republican sweep, or even with a divided government led by Donald Trump, economic output would take a hit next year, mostly from increased tariffs on imports and tighter immigration policies, Goldman said in a note late on Tuesday. Job growth under a Democrat government would also likely be stronger than under the Republicans, Goldman said. WHY IT’S IMPORTANT The race between Harris and Trump is tight, with the Democrat eking out a narrow advantage in national polls and in some battleground states. KEY QUOTES "We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse, resulting in a peak hit to GDP growth of -0.5pp in 2025H2 that abates in 2026." "If Democrats sweep, new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026." CONTEXT The prospect of a Trump win, particularly alongside running mate, China hawk JD Vance, jolted markets in July. BY THE NUMBERS Under Harris, job growth would be 10,000 a month higher than if Trump wins with a divided government, and 30,000 higher than with a Republican sweep, Goldman estimates. A Trump win would likely led to increased tariffs on auto imports from China, Mexico and the European Union that would raise core inflation, Goldman says. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/goldman-sachs-sees-biggest-boost-us-economy-harris-win-2024-09-04/

2024-09-04 09:43

Dollar slips ahead of U.S. payrolls data Cryptocurrencies under pressure NEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped against most major currencies on Wednesday after July U.S. job openings data signaled a softening labor market, tilting the odds further in favor of larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Traders boosted bets that the Fed will deliver a half-a-percentage-point reduction at its next meeting, following news that job openings in July fell to the lowest level in 3-1/2 years. Friday's U.S. payrolls report could offer further clues on the timing and pace of Fed rate cuts. "The U.S. central bank must not keep interest rates too high much longer or it risks causing too much harm to employment, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency's strength against six major peers, was down 0.3% at 101.4. The dollar slipped 1% to 144.07 yen, a one-week low, as global financial markets generally avoided riskier assets. U.S. stocks remained weak after Tuesday's sharp sell-off sparked by concerns about the U.S. economy and tech sector valuations. Soft U.S. manufacturing data released on Tuesday helped fan worries about a hard landing for the world's biggest economy. The dollar, which tumbled more than 2% against a basket of currencies in August, has steadied as rising volatility in global financial markets lifted demand for safer currencies. "Stock market instability and dropping U.S. yields have made the yen a strong performer," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. The dollar index was about 1% above its late August low of 100.51. "The USD has rebounded but is afraid to rebound any further until it gets more information," Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, said in a note. "After Friday's print we'll either be 100 or lower or 104 or higher in DXY by my reckoning." Economists surveyed by Reuters expect Friday's report to show an increase of 165,000 U.S. jobs in August, after a rise of 114,000 in July. Investors will also keep a close eye on jobless claims on Thursday. The euro was 0.2% higher at $1.107075, recovering from early marginal declines. Euro zone business activity received a boost from France hosting the Olympic Games last month but the malaise in the bloc is likely to return once the Paralympics wraps up as demand remains weak, a survey showed. The Canadian dollar rose 0.3% against its U.S. counterpart after the Bank of Canada cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% as forecast but expressed concern that weaker-than-expected growth might mean inflation falls too quickly. Sterling rose 0.2% to $1.3138 after weakening to a low of $1.3101 overnight. With investors avoiding riskier assets, cryptocurrencies faltered on Tuesday. Bitcoin fell about 1% to $57,751 and ether slipped about 0.8% to $2,444. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/safe-haven-yen-gains-edgy-markets-face-us-jobs-test-2024-09-04/

2024-09-04 07:52

NEW DELHI, Sept 4 (Reuters) - India's steel minister will try to convince the finance ministry to raise tariffs on steel imports, he said on Wednesday, to protect domestic mills from a rise in cheaper imports from countries such as China. India, the world's second biggest crude steel producer, turned net steel importer in the fiscal year through March, and the trend continued during the first four months of the fiscal year that began in April. China was the top steel exporter to India from April to July, shipping about 807,000 metric tons to its neighbour. It was followed by Japan and South Korea. Minister of Steel H. D. Kumaraswamy told reporters on the sidelines of an industry conference his ministry had requested the Ministry of Steel take several steps to protect it from cheaper imports. They included backing an industry demand to raise tariffs on steel imports to 10%-12% from 7.5%. "Our steel industry is facing a lot of problems. They are suffering," Kumaraswamy told reporters. The Indian government in August initiated an anti-dumping investigation on certain steel products imported from Vietnam. Steel mills such as JSW Steel (JSTL.NS), India's largest steel producer by capacity, and Tata Steel (TISC.NS) , opens new tab, meanwhile, have said that the industry was in talks with the government on trade measures. Steel prices in India have plunged to their lowest level in more than three years due to higher imports and subdued exports, according to data from commodities consultancy BigMint. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/will-ask-finmin-raise-duties-on-steel-imports-india-steel-minister-says-2024-09-04/

2024-09-04 07:32

HAMBURG, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Rain has raised water levels on the Rhine in Germany but most of the river remains too shallow for cargo vessels to sail fully loaded, commodity traders said on Wednesday, following a bout of dry weather in August. Ship operators imposed surcharges on freight rates to compensate for vessels sailing partly empty, increasing costs for cargo owners. Shallow water continues to hinder shipping on most of the Rhine in Germany including Duisburg, Cologne and the chokepoint of Kaub, but vessels are able to take on larger loads, traders said. More rain is forecast in river catchment areas on Wednesday and the coming days and this is expected to raise the river to levels allowing normal shipping later this week or early next week, they said. The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities such as grains, minerals, ores, chemicals, ores, coal and oil products, including heating oil. German companies faced supply bottlenecks and production problems in summer 2022 after a drought and heat-wave led to unusually low water levels on the river. But repeated rain earlier this summer had kept Rhine water levels high, enabling shipping to mostly operate normally until late August. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rain-lifts-rhine-river-levels-germany-ships-still-part-loaded-2024-09-04/

2024-09-04 07:29

NEW DELHI, Sept 4 (Reuters) - India supports a policy of development and not expansionism, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in Brunei on Wednesday, though he did not name any country. Brunei is located south of the South China Sea, which is claimed almost entirely by Beijing. Ties between India and China have been strained since 20 Indian and four Chinese troops were killed in a border clash on their Himalayan frontier in 2020. Modi also said India supports freedom of navigation and overflight under international laws similar to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which provides a framework for global maritime navigation and regulates use of marine resources. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india-supports-policy-development-not-expansionism-pm-modi-says-2024-09-04/

2024-09-04 07:27

Sept 4 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways (0293.HK) , opens new tab said on Wednesday its Airbus (AIR.PA) , opens new tab A350 fleet would fully resume operations by Saturday after it found 15 planes that needed fuel line repairs following the in-flight failure of an engine part this week. The inspections and repairs to the Rolls-Royce (RR.L) , opens new tab engines that power its fleet of 48 A350 widebody jets led the carrier to cancel 45 return flights on mostly regional Asian routes this week, it said in its latest update. Cathay Pacific said six of the 15 aircraft needing engine fuel lines replaced had been repaired and were cleared to operate. The remaining nine were expected to be fixed and returned to operation by Saturday. A person familiar with the matter said a leak in a fuel system appeared to have caused a brief engine fire that was quickly extinguished by the crew of a Zurich-bound A350-1000 plane on Monday, which returned to Hong Kong just over an hour after take-off. There were no immediate signs that the incident would trigger significant regulatory action involving the A350 fleet, the person added. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/cathays-a350-fleet-fully-resume-operations-by-sept-7-2024-09-04/