2024-09-03 06:44

Gold steady near $2,500 mark Focus shifts to U.S. Payrolls jobs data on Friday Go for gold, says Goldman Sachs Sept 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices held steady on Tuesday as attention shifted to upcoming U.S. jobs data that could give insights into the size of rate cuts the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver this month. Spot gold was at $2,498.87 per ounce by 1111 GMT, having a hit more than one-week low in the last session on a firmer dollar. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,530.70. Quantitative Commodity Research analyst Peter Fertig said the gold market was torn between focusing on how deep the Fed's cuts will be in September and cuts in the following two meetings. Traders see a 31% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's Sept. 17-18 policy meet and a 69% chance of a quarter point cut. Investors will monitor Friday's U.S. payrolls report, while ISM surveys, JOLTS job openings and the ADP employment report can also provide clues on the Fed's rate cut path. "If the (payrolls) report comes in as expected... gold could fall further," Commerzbank wrote in a note. "On the other hand, if the U.S. jobs report is significantly weaker, speculation about a U.S. recession and faster rate cuts will resurface, further supporting gold." Bullion, traditionally known for its stability as a favoured hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, thrives in a low-interest rate environment. Goldman Sachs in a note said gold stands out as the commodity where the bank has the highest confidence in near-term upside. "It remains our preferred hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, with added support from imminent Fed rate cuts and ongoing EM central bank buying," it said. So far this year, gold has gained 21%, breaking successive records to hit a historic high of $2,531.60 per ounce on Aug. 20. Spot silver dipped 0.7% to $28.30, platinum fell about 1.5% to $916.50 and palladium lost 1.7% to $962.10. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-eases-traders-strap-us-economic-data-2024-09-03/

2024-09-03 06:32

Sept 3 (Reuters) - Brent oil prices retreated by more than 2% on Tuesday as sluggish economic growth in China, the world's biggest crude importer, intensified demand concerns that overshadowed the impact of halted production and exports from Libya. Brent crude futures fell by $1.66, or 2.1%, to $75.86 a barrel by 1200 GMT. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, which did not settle on Monday because of the U.S. Labour Day holiday, were down $1.07, or 1.5%, at $72.48. "The weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI over the weekend likely exacerbated concerns about the Chinese economy's performance," said Charalampos Pissouros, senior investment analyst at brokerage XM "The Libya and Middle East stories are keeping a floor below prices, leaving the door open to a further recovery in the foreseeable future." On Monday China reported new export orders fell for first time in eight months in July and that prices of new homes rose in August at their weakest pace this year. In Libya, oil exports at major ports were halted on Monday and production curtailed across the country, six engineers told Reuters, continuing a standoff between rival political factions over control of the central bank and oil revenue. So far there is limited upside support from large production disruptions in Libya, owing to the uncertainty over how long those outages might last, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Libya's National Oil Corp (NOC) declared force majeure on its El Feel oilfield from Sept. 2. Total production had plunged to little more than 591,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of Aug. 28 from nearly 959,000 bpd on Aug. 26, NOC said. Production was at about 1.28 million bpd on July 20, the company said. Some supply is set to return to the market as eight members of OPEC and affiliates, together known as OPEC+, are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 bpd in October. The plan is likely to go ahead regardless of demand worries, industry sources said. "It remains to be seen how low prices can go before OPEC+ reacts, as most cartel members need prices above current levels to come close to balancing budgets," said Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty. Continuing disruptions to supply flows from the Middle East are also supporting the market. Two oil tankers were attacked on Monday in the Red Sea off Yemen but did not sustain major damage. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-fall-weak-demand-overshadows-libya-blockade-2024-09-03/

2024-09-03 06:18

BEIJING, Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. climate envoy John Podesta will visit China for three days from Wednesday to discuss climate change issues, the environment ministry said, as the world's two biggest emitters of greenhouse gas look to bridge gaps on issues such as finance. Pacts between the two have been key to building global consensus in the fight on climate change, but few analysts expect this week's talks to deliver much progress. Podesta is set to meet Chinese counterpart Liu Zhenmin in the second round of formal climate talks between China and the United States since he replaced John Kerry as senior envoy at the start of the year. In a summary of remarks last week between U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, the State Department said, "They underscored the importance of concrete steps to tackle the climate crisis and welcomed further discussions," in a reference to Podesta's visit. The United States is also trying to push China to set more ambitious climate targets as a deadline approaches by the beginning of next year for countries to submit new "nationally determined" contributions to the United Nations. "We may get to know a bit more about China's positions and their landing zones, but (there is) unlikely (to be) a breakthrough," said Yao Zhe, global policy adviser at Greenpeace in Beijing. Washington wants China to contribute to a new climate finance programme called the New Collective Quantified Goal that aims to deliver billions of dollars to help developing countries boost climate ambitions. But calls to broaden the fund's contributor base were an attempt by rich nations to "dilute" their obligations, the BASIC bloc of countries, which groups Brazil, China, India and South Africa, said last month. "China has chafed at pressure from the United States, European Union and other advanced economies to require contributions from emerging economies," Kate Logan, a climate expert at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said in an email. Beijing's emissions are expected to peak much earlier than its pledged date "before 2030", giving it space to commit to substantial cuts by 2035. China needs to cut emissions by at least 30% by 2035 to align with the Paris Agreement goal to keep temperature rises within 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), research shows. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/top-us-climate-diplomat-podesta-visit-china-sept-4-6-2024-09-03/

2024-09-03 06:05

ADDIS ABABA, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Ethiopian Airlines said on Tuesday it had suspended flights to neighbouring Eritrea because its bank account there was frozen. The carrier's CEO Mesfin Tasew told a news conference that the Eritrean Civil Aviation Authority had blocked money transfers from Ethiopian Airlines' bank account in the Eritrean capital city Asmara. Eritrea had previously said it would suspend all Ethiopian Airlines flights at the end of this month. Flights from Ethiopia to Eritrea had resumed in 2018 after two decades, following a peace deal and resumption of diplomatic relations between the two neighbours that earned Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed a Nobel peace prize a year later. "We couldn't continue in such situation and we have decided to suspend the flight as of today," Mesfin said. In a statement late on Monday, Ethiopian Airlines had said it would try to rebook affected passengers on other airlines at no additional cost or offer refunds. Ethiopian is ranked the largest airline in Africa by revenue and profit by the International Air Transport Association. Five diplomats told Reuters the suspension of flights signalled that relations between Asmara and Addis had soured significantly, but the risk of conflict was unlikely for now. The two countries severed ties in 1998 when a two-year war started over their disputed border. Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia in a war that erupted in November 2020 against regional forces from Ethiopia's Tigray region, but relations soured once again after Asmara was excluded from the peace talks that ended that conflict two years later, and because some of its troops remain in Tigray. Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopian-airlines-says-it-has-stopped-flights-eritrea-2024-09-03/

2024-09-03 05:49

Manufacturing data subdued, US jobs report in focus Global stock index falls, dollar hits two-week high Yen gains as BOJ seen continuing rate hikes Sept 3 (Reuters) - MSCI's gauge of global equities fell sharply on Tuesday, with Wall Street stocks taking their biggest hit since early August while U.S. Treasury yields fell after manufacturing data spurred worries about the economy. Investors were also waiting anxiously for the monthly U.S. jobs report due later in the week, as it is expected to shed more light on the health of the American economy and influence how swiftly the Federal Reserve cuts rates. Oil sold off sharply and prices settled at their lowest level since Dec. 12 on expectations of an imminent deal to resolve a dispute that has halted Libyan production and exports following a U.N.-brokered meeting between rival factions. Elsewhere in commodities, copper prices slumped to their lowest in more than two weeks, on concerns that a weak Chinese economy is curbing demand. Wall Street indexes extended earlier losses after U.S. manufacturing data pointed to subdued factory activity while it edged up last month from an eight-month low in July with some improvement in employment. "Investors woke up this morning to see a mixed economic report. They saw economically sensitive commodities like oil and copper falling. Also, there's still a hangover from the tech weakness last week," said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, El Segundo, California. "Take all this together and it leads to an opportunity for profit taking, especially with stocks near record highs," said Goldman, also citing jitters that September is typically the weakest month of the year with concerns exacerbated by the looming U.S. presidential election in early November. Investors are also waiting anxiously for Friday's August U.S. jobs report, which is expected to help determine whether the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points or 50 on Sept. 18. "Investors are wondering are we heading into a recession quicker than was thought or does the Fed have this under control with rate cuts going forward," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut, adding that the manufacturing data "certainly didn't help." Adding to volatility was the fact that many investors were back from summer vacations and a long weekend as U.S. markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday. On Wall Street all three major indexes suffered their biggest daily declines since Aug. 5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 626.15 points, or 1.51%, to 40,936.93; the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab lost 119.47 points, or 2.12%, to 5,528.93; and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab lost 577.33 points, or 3.26%, to 17,136.30. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 13.60 points, or 1.63%, to 819.44, also showing its biggest one-day drop since Aug. 5. Earlier Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index had closed down close to 1%. In currencies, the dollar hovered near a two-week high against the euro as traders braced for a data-heavy week, including Friday's U.S. payrolls report. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, gained 0.13% to 101.79. The euro was down 0.28% at $1.104. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 0.82% to 145.69 after media reports that cited the Bank of Japan governor reiterating in a document submitted to a government panel on Tuesday that the bank would keep raising interest rates if the economy and inflation performed as currently expected. U.S. Treasury yields were mostly lower, with the benchmark 10-year note on track to snap a five-session streak of gains, after the soft manufacturing sector data. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 6.5 basis points to 3.846%, from 3.911% late on Friday while the 30-year bond yield fell 5.9 basis points to 4.1373%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 4.7 basis points to 3.8796%, from 3.927% late on Friday. In energy markets, U.S. crude settled down 4.4% at $70.34 a barrel and Brent ended at $73.75 per barrel, down 4.9% on the day. Copper lost 2.12% to $8,988.00 a tonne. Three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.35% to $2,415.50 a tonne. Gold prices eased to their lowest in more than a week pressured by a firm dollar, while investors awaited economic data that could determine the size of U.S. rate cuts. Spot gold lost 0.31% to $2,491.39 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.27% to $2,487.10 an ounce. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-09-03/

2024-09-03 05:20

TOKYO, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The safe-haven Japanese yen rallied on Wednesday while riskier currencies like the Australian dollar and sterling languished as traders ducked for cover following the worst sell-off in almost a month on Wall Street and big losses for Asian stocks. The catalyst was ostensibly some soft U.S. manufacturing data, which fanned worries about a hard landing for the world's biggest economy, with traders already nervous ahead of crucial monthly payrolls data on Friday. "The bears are back with a bang," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, while adding that the poor factory figures on their own did not justify a market response of such scale. "It does, however, speak to the heightened sensitivity of participants to incoming data, particularly downside surprises." The yen strengthened as much as 0.4% to 144.89 per dollar before last trading up about 0.2% at 145.15 as of 0525 GMT, following a 1% rally overnight against a broadly stronger dollar. The dollar-yen pair tends to track long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which dropped nearly 7 basis points (bps) overnight and continued to decline in Asian hours to stand at 3.8253% as investors flocked to the safety of bonds. The dollar, though, was firm against most other major peers, as it tends to draw safety bids even when the U.S. economy is the focus of concern. Sterling was flat at $1.3117, after weakening 0.23% overnight. The euro rose 0.13% to $1.1058, following a 0.26% decline in the previous session. The Swiss franc , another safe haven, strengthened about 0.26% to 0.8480 per dollar. The Aussie slipped a further 0.13% to $0.67025, extending Tuesday's 1.2% tumble. It had earlier dropped as much as 0.4%. Cryptocurrencies also faltered, with bitcoin and ether slipping about 2.9% and 3.4%, respectively. Risks to the U.S. soft-landing scenario - which had been gaining traction recently in markets - saw traders raise odds of a 50 basis point (bp) Federal Reserve interest rate cut on Sept. 18 to 38% from 30% a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect Friday's report to show an increase of 165,000 U.S. jobs in August, up from a rise of 114,000 in July. Ahead of that, investors will keep a close eye on job openings data on Wednesday and the jobless claims report on Thursday. U.S. markets had been closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday and came back Tuesday to a weak Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey that suggested factory activity in the country would remain subdued for a while. "That was supposed to show a gain, but actually showed a decline, and has made people wonder once more about the Fed possibly being too late to act," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. "This may be a short week but it will be an important and crucial one for investor confidence," he added. "People are going to remain on edge." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-steady-traders-brace-labour-data-deluge-2024-09-03/