2024-09-17 04:34

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook Tokyo traders returned on Tuesday from a three-day holiday weekend, showing little inclination to repeat the yen's low-liquidity climb to the strong side of 140 per dollar, where it made a brief cameo on Monday. But the dollar/yen pair - and the 140 milestone - are in the spotlight this week, with the Fed expected to begin a U.S. easing cycle and the Bank of Japan charting a path to interest rate hikes. Market pricing for an outsized 50-basis-point Fed hike on Wednesday ran to 67% on Tuesday, up from 30% a week ago. The yen hit a 38-year low on the dollar in early July but has been on a tear since, gaining more than 12% as the gap between two-year U.S. and Japanese rates shrank by some 130 basis points over 11 weeks. Further gains are likely if a nudge from either a dovish Fed or a hawkish BOJ pushes it firmly through 140, which would open the way to an assault on last January's yen peak at 127.215 per dollar. It would also push the yen through the strong end of corporate assumptions for exchange levels this financial year, turning them into buyers and adding to already hard-running momentum. Japanese stocks are leery, with the Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab down 1.7%. Ahead of the Fed, a German sentiment survey (DEZEWS=ECI) , opens new tab due on Tuesday is expected to show a slight deterioration this month and U.S. retail sales (USRSL=ECI) , opens new tab are forecast to have contracted month-on-month in August. Markets will likely look past the numbers, with the focus as much on the size of this week's expected U.S. rate cut as on the reasons for it and the forward guidance, as a sounding board for how to interpret the next few weeks and months of economic data. A research arm of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, reckons a resilient economy will keep rate cuts shallower than the 250 bps traders have priced in for the next 12 months. Elsewhere in Asia, Australia's benchmark ASX 200 (.AXJO) , opens new tab hit a record high while Chinese home appliance maker Midea rose 9.5% on its trading debut in Hong Kong. Mainland Chinese markets were closed for a holiday. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: Economics: German sentiment survey, U.S. retail sales, Canada CPI Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-09-17/

2024-09-17 04:19

Growing number of countries piloting digital currencies Those already launched have seen usage finally pick up China could fully launch e-CNY next year, U.S. lagging LONDON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - A total of 134 countries representing 98% of the global economy are now exploring digital versions of their currencies, with almost half at an advanced stage and pioneers like China, the Bahamas and Nigeria starting to see a pick up in usage. The research by the U.S.-based Atlantic Council think-tank published on Tuesday showed that all G20 nations are now looking into central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as they are known and that 44 countries in total are piloting them. That is up from 36 a year ago and is part of a global push by authorities to respond to declining cash usage and the threat to their money-printing powers from the likes of bitcoin and 'Big Tech'. The Atlantic Council's Josh Lipsky and Ananya Kumar said one of the most noteable developments this year has been the sizable increase in the Bahamas, Jamaica and Nigeria's CBDCs, the only three countries that have already launched them. China too, which is running the world's largest pilot scheme, has seen use of its protype e-CNY nearly quadruple to 7 trillion yuan ($987 billion) of transactions according to officials. "There has been a narrative that the countries that have launched CBDCs have seen low or no usage, but in the last months we have seen a real uptake," Lipsky said. "My predication is that the PBOC (China's central bank) will be close to full launch a year from now," he added. Other big advances have been the European Central Bank's launch of a multi-year digital euro pilot and the United States, which has long dragged its feet on a digital dollar, joining a cross-border CBDC project with six other major central banks. It still lags far behind nearly every other leading bank however Lipsky highlighted that it is one of the countries where privacy and other concerns about CBDCs are most vocal. In May, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill prohibiting the direct issuance of a 'retail' CBDC - the type used by the public. The Senate has not yet acted, but it remains a live issue in the presidential election campaign between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the G7 sanctions response, 'wholesale' bank-to-bank only CBDC projects have more than doubled in number to 13. The fastest growing one, codenamed mBridge, connects CBDCs from China, Thailand, the UAE, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia and is expected to expand to more countries this year. Russia is unlikely to be one of them but its digital rouble pilot means it is now accepted in the Moscow metro and in some petrol stations. Iran is also working on a digital rial. "No matter what happens with the U.S. election, the Fed is years behind," Lipsky said. ($1 = 7.0930 Chinese yuan renminbi) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/central-bank-digital-currency-momentum-growing-study-shows-2024-09-17/

2024-09-17 03:10

Sept 16 (Reuters) - Donald Trump on Monday offered few details about a new cryptocurrency business that the Republican former president, his family and associates unveiled in a live event on X Spaces. Trump engaged in a wide-ranging discussion that touched on the second apparent assassination attempt against him on Sunday and his shift from being a cryptocurrency skeptic to embracing it. But neither he nor his family provided much detail about the business - World Liberty Financial - including how it was formed, financed or what services it would provide. It is unusual for a presidential candidate to launch a new business so close to an election, but Trump has been looking to court digital asset advocates and their dollars ahead of Election Day on Nov. 5. After previously deriding cryptocurrencies as a scam, Trump has embraced digital assets during his re-election campaign, promising to make the United States the "crypto capital of the planet" with light-touch regulation and a national stockpile of bitcoin. Trump's two eldest sons, Eric and Donald Jr, have promoted the project in recent weeks, promising it will "transform" the world of digital asset finance, without elaborating. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-offers-little-detail-crypto-business-unveiling-2024-09-17/

2024-09-17 02:46

MUMBAI, Sept 17 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open nearly flat on Tuesday, with traders expecting the currency to see largely rangebound price action ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision this week. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 83.87-83.88 to the U.S. dollar, little changed from its Monday's close of 83.8875. While Asian currencies have been lifted by heightened odds of a deeper rate cut by the Fed on Wednesday, the rupee has diverged from its peers, pinned down by persistent dollar demand from local importers and likely absorption of inflows by the Reserve Bank of India, traders said. State-run banks have been "present on bid (on USD/INR) around 83.85 levels", a trader at a foreign bank said. The dollar bids could be related to client flows but the continued rise in Reserve Bank of India's foreign exchange reserves also signals that the central bank has been absorbing dollars, the trader added. India's foreign exchange reserves rose to a record high of $689.2 billion as of Sept. 6, according to central bank data. The dollar index was at 100.6 after declining 0.4% on Monday, as chances of a 50-basis point Fed rate cut rose to 67%, up from 50% on Friday, according to CME's FedWatch tool. U.S. bond yields were lower, while most Asian currencies rose with the Korean won up 0.8% and leading gains. "The U.S. retail sales numbers out later today will likely be significant, and may perhaps help to settle the ongoing debate about whether the Fed may do 25 bps or 50 bps cut," MUFG Bank said in a note. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.97; onshore one-month forward premium at 10.50 paisa ** Dollar index at 100.67 ** Brent crude futures up 0.3% at $73 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.62% Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-expected-remain-steady-ahead-fed-decision-2024-09-17/

2024-09-16 23:56

Graphic:

2024-09-16 23:31

TORONTO, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Canadian miner First Quantum Minerals (FM.TO) , opens new tab has opened a voluntary retirement scheme to workers at the Cobre Panama mine, two sources familiar with the matter said, as the company waits for a government decision on restarting the operation. The mine, one of the world's top sources of copper, was shut down in November, hours after Panama's Supreme Court declared its contract unconstitutional. The decision to close down the mine was also triggered by environmental protests against the operation. Panama's new government led by President Jose Raul Mulino has said the mine is not on his government's agenda this year and he will take a decision on its future in early 2025. A significant reduction in the number of workers at the mine could lengthen the time needed to resume production. First Quantum has asked its employees in Cobre Panama to choose between taking the voluntary retirement offer that would come into effect from January 2025 or work with reduced hours, the sources said. Employees are expected to make a decision by the end of September, they added on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the matter. First Quantum declined to comment. Michael Camacho, the union leader for Panama Mining Workers Union, said the operation was undertaking a voluntary retirement process and a small number of workers had taken up the offer. He said Panama's government has not indicated what would constitute a safe management plan for the mine. "There are around 900 people working at the site, down from 6,000 last year and most of the employees would prefer to work with reduced work hours, than take a voluntary retirement", said one of the sources, who did not wish to be identified. Reuters could not independently verify the number of people currently working at the mine. Shares of First Quantum closed 0.5% lower on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Monday. For First Quantum, reopening Cobre Panama mine is essential to managing its debt. Commodities markets are also watching to see what happens to 130,000 metric tons of copper concentrate that is stuck at Cobre Panama. The Panama government is yet to make a decision on whether it will allow the export of the copper concentrate. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/first-quantum-minerals-offers-voluntary-retirement-cobre-panama-workers-sources-2024-09-16/