US Dollar Analysis and Chart

• US economy expands by 2.8% in Q2, initial data show.
• US dollar little changed, eyes Friday’s US Core PCE release.

The US economy expanded by 2.8% in Q2 - beating market forecasts of 2% - according to recently released BEA data. Compared to the first quarter (1.4%), the acceleration inreal GDPin the second quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment and an acceleration in consumer spending. A downturn in residential fixed investment partly offset these movements. According to the BEA, today’s advance reading is based on ‘source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision.’ The 2nd estimate will be released on August 29th.

US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Report

The Durable Goods Orders data, -6.6% compared to forecast of +0.3%, was driven lower by a large decrease in transportation equipment. Excluding transportation, new orders increased by 0.5%.

Monthly Durable Goods Orders – US Census Bureau

The better-than-expected GDP report trimmed US rate cut expectations by two to three basis points. Despite the report, markets continue to fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 18 meeting with further quarter point cuts expected at the November 7 and the December 18 meetings.

The US dollar index picked up a small bid but remains calm ahead of Friday’s Core PCE data. The DXY is trading on either side of the 200-day sma and will likely stay that way until 13:30 UK tomorrow.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart

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