BoJ, USD/JPY Analysis

• BoJ Deputy Governor issues dovish reassurance to volatile markets
• USD/JPY rises after dovish comments, providing temporary relief
• BoJ minutes, Fed speakers and US CPI data on the horizon

BoJ Deputy Governor Issues Dovish Reassurance to Volatile Markets

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor issued comments that contrasted Governor Ueda’s rather hawkish tone, bringing momentary calm to the yen and Nikkei index. On Monday the Japanese index witnessed its worst day since 1987 as large hedge funds and other money managers sought to sell global assets in an attempt to unwind carry trades.

Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida outlined that recent market volatility could “obviously” have ramifications for the BoJ’s rate hike path if it impacts the central bank’s economic and inflation outlooks. The BoJ is focused on achieving its 2% price target in a sustainable manner – something that could come under pressure with a fast appreciating yen. A stronger yen makes imports cheaper and filters down into lower overall prices in the local economy. A stronger yen also makes Japanese exports less attractive to overseas buyers which could impede already modest economic growth and cause a slowdown in spending and consumption as revenues contract.

Uchida went on to say, “As we're seeing sharp volatility in domestic and overseas financial markets, it's necessary to maintain current levels of monetary easing for the time being. Personally, I see more factors popping up that require us being cautious about raising interest rates". Uchida’s dovish comments balance Ueda’s rather hawkish rhetoric on the 31st of July when the BoJ hiked rates more than anticipated by the market. The Japanese Index below indicates a momentary halt to the yen’s recent advance.

Japanese Index (Equal-weighting of USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY)

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

USD/JPY Rises after Dovish BoJ Comments, Providing Temporary Relief

The unrelenting USD/JPY sell-off appears to have found temporary relief after Deputy Governor Uchida’s dovish comments. The pair has plummeted over 12.5% in just over a month, led by two suspected bouts of FX intervention which followed lower US inflation data.

The BoJ hike added to the bearish USD/JPY momentum, seeing the pair crash through the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) with ease. The recent spike low (141.70) is the nearest level of support, followed by 140.25, the December 2023 swing low. Resistance appears all the way back at 152.00 which corresponds with the peak in USD/JPY back in 2022 moments before Japanese officials intervened to strengthen the yen. The RSI attempts to recover form massively oversold territory, providing an opportunity for a short-term correction.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

Japanese government bond yields have also been on the receiving end of a US-led downturn, sending the 10-year yield way below 1%. The BoJ now adopts a flexible yield curve approach where government borrowing costs are allowed to trade flexibly above 1%. Normally we see currencies depreciating when yields drop but in this case, global yields have dropped in unison, having taken their cue from the US.

Japanese Government Bond Yields (10-year)

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

The next bit of high impact data between the two countries appears via tomorrow’s BoJ summary of opinions but things really heat up next week when US CPI data for July is due alongside Japanese Q2 GDP growth.

https://www.dailyfx.com/news/dovish-boj-comments-stabilise-markets-for-now-usd-jpy-rises-20240807.html