UK Jobs, GBP/USD News and Analysis

• UK unemployment rate drops unexpectedly but it’s not all good news
• GBP receives a boost on the back of the jobs report
• UK inflation data and first look at Q2 GDP up next

UK Unemployment Rate Drops Unexpectedly but its not all Good News

On the face of it, UK jobs data appears to show resilience as the unemployment rate contracted notably from 4.4% to 4.2% despite expectations of a rise to 4.5%. Restrictive monetary policy has weighed on hiring intentions throughout Britain which has resulted in a gradual rise in the unemployment rate.

Average earnings continued to decline despite the ex-bonus data point dropping a lot slower than anticipated, 5.4% vs 4.6% expected. However, it’s the claimant count figure for July that has raised a few eyebrows. In May we witnessed the first unusually high number as those registering for unemployment related benefits shot up to 51,900 when previous figures were under 10,000 on a consistent basis. In July, the number has shot up again to a massive 135,000.

In June, employment rose by 97,000, trumping conservative expectations of a meagre 3,000 increase.

UK Employment Change (Most Recent Data Point is for June)

Source: Refinitiv, LSEG prepared by Richard Snow

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in July has risen to levels witnessed during the global financial crisis (GFC). Therefore, sterling’s shorter-term strength may turn out to be short-lived when the dust settles. However, there is a strong probability that sterling continues to climb as we look ahead to tomorrow's CPI data which is expected to rise to 2.3%.

Source: Refinitiv Datastream, prepared by Richard Snow

Sterling Receives a Boost on the Back of the Jobs Report

The pound rose off the back of the encouraging unemployment statistic. A tighter jobs market than initially anticipated, can have the effect of bringing back inflation concerns as the Bank of England (BoE) forecasts that price levels will rise again after reaching the 2% target in May.

GBP/USD 5-minute chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

The cable pullback received impetus from the jobs report this morning, seeing GBP/USD test a notable level of confluence. The pair immediately tests the 1.2800 level which kept bullish price action at bay at the start of the year. Additionally, price action also tests the longer-term trendline support which now acts as resistance.

Tomorrow’s CPI data could see a further bullish advance if inflation rises to 2.3% as anticipated, with a surprise to the upside potentially adding even more momentum to the bullish pullback.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

Keep an eye out for Thursday’s GDP data in light of renewed pessimism of a global slowdown after US jobs data took a hit in July, leading some to question whether the Fed has maintained restrictive monetary policy for too long.

https://www.dailyfx.com/news/uk-unemployment-rate-falls-unexpectedly-but-major-concerns-reappear-20240813.html