• The EUR/USD pair could jump higher if it stays above the lower median line.
• The Eurozone and the US data should move the rate tomorrow.
• Taking out the lower median line invalidates the upside scenario.

Today’s EUR/USD price climbed to mark a new high near 1.0915. The pair has dropped slightly and is at 1.0870 as the US dollar again gained traction.

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In the short term, the downside pressure remains high as the US dollar showed overbought signs despite positive US data lately. Yesterday, the CB Leading Index reported a 0.1% drop versus the 0.3% drop expected after the 0.5% drop in the previous reporting period.

Today, the BOJ maintained the monetary policy as expected and had a minor impact on the EUR/USD pair. The Eurozone Consumer Confidence is expected at -14 points versus -15 points in the previous reporting period. In addition, the US is to release the Richmond Manufacturing Index, which may jump from -11 points to -7 points.

The fundamentals should be decisive tomorrow as the US and Eurozone release the manufacturing and services data.

The Eurozone services and manufacturing sectors could remain in the contraction territory. Also, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep the Overnight Rate at 5.00%.

The EUR/USD pair validated its breakout through the downtrend line and jumped above the weekly pivot point of 1.0903, but it has failed to stay above it. Now, it could retest the immediate demand zones. The broken downtrend and lower median lines (LML) represent key downside obstacles.

The rate could rise towards new highs if it stays above these lines. Technically, the price could be attracted by the median line (ml). The upside scenario could be invalidated if the price takes out the lower median line (LML).

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/23/eur-usd-price-retraces-below-1-09-eying-consumer-confidence/