• Powell was more confident that the Fed would lower interest rates this year.
• The ECB held rates on Thursday and prepared for the first rate cut in June.
• There is a growing divergence in the outlook for inflation and growth between the Eurozone and the US.

The EUR/USD outlook appears strongly bullish, spurred by the recent downturn in the dollar ahead of the eagerly awaited nonfarm payrolls report. Notably, the dollar extended declines, building on the momentum from the previous session as investors gained confidence in the likelihood of a Fed rate cut later this year.

On Thursday, Powell was more confident that the Fed would lower interest rates this year. His remarks sent Treasury yields and the dollar lower, allowing the euro to make new highs.

Additionally, data from the US revealed that initial jobless claims held steady last week while continuing claims rose. Investors are preparing for the all-important nonfarm payrolls report, which will give clues on the Fed’s next move. Economists expect slower job growth in February, which could push EUR/USD higher.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank held rates on Thursday and prepared for the first rate cut in June. Notably, the central bank cut its forecasts for inflation and growth, signalling looming rate cuts. Although EUR/USD rose on Thursday, the outlook for the pair is bleak. There is a growing divergence in the outlook for inflation and growth between the Eurozone and the US.

In the US, the economy remains resilient, and inflation is persistent. Meanwhile, inflation in the Eurozone is declining, and growth is slowing down. Consequently, interest rates in the Eurozone might come down earlier and faster than in the US, which would be bearish for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD key events today

• US average hourly earnings m/m
• US nonfarm employment change
• US unemployment rate

EUR/USD technical outlook: Bullish momentum peaks near significant 1.0950 barrier

On the technical side, EUR/USD has made fresh highs near the 1.0950 key resistance level. Moreover, the price has hit its bullish channel resistance, supporting a solid bullish bias. Initially, the price had been stuck in consolidation below the 1.0850 key level.

However, bullish momentum surged when the price broke above the level. Consequently, it rose well above the 30-SMA, while the RSI rose to the overbought region.

However, the price might pull back temporarily to retest the SMA, as it faces a strong barrier. There is resistance at the 1.0950 key level and the channel resistance line.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/08/eur-usd-outlook-dollar-declines-as-us-jobs-data-looms/