• The USD/CHF pair seems overbought after failing to hit the upper median line.
• The fundamentals could change the sentiment on Wednesday.
• Failing to take out the 0.9 psychological level announced exhausted sellers.

The USD/CHF price rallied mildly on Monday, trading near 0.9050, versus Friday’s low of 0.8998. The pair climbed as high as 0.9065 today. However, the buyers could be exhausted after the upside.

The greenback received a helping hand from the US economy on Friday. The Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 303K, versus 212K expected and 270K in the previous reporting period. The Unemployment Rate dropped unexpectedly from 3.9% to 3.8%, while Average Hourly Earnings reported 0.3% growth, matching expectations.

Today, the unemployment rate in Switzerland jumped from 2.2% to 2.3%, even if traders expected the rate to remain at 2.2%. The US will release the NFIB Small Business Index and RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism tomorrow, but these won’t affect the markets a lot.

The fundamentals should have a major impact on Wednesday when the US will publish the inflation figures.

The Consumer Price Index is expected to report a 0.3% growth in March, after a 0.4% growth in February, CPI y/y may announce a 3.4% growth versus 3.2% in the previous month, while Core CPI could register a 0.3% growth, after a 0.4% growth in February. Higher-than-expected inflation should boost the US dollar as the Fed’s rate cut speculation may fade.

Technically, the currency pair rallied after failing to take out the 0.9000 psychological level. It has registered only a false breakdown below this downside obstacle. Now it has turned to the upside.

Also, its failure to stay below the median line (ml) revealed exhausted sellers. Now, it was about to hit the upper median line (uml), representing a dynamic resistance.

However, the sellers took the lead again, retreating from the daily highs. Failing to hit the upper median line showed an overbought situation. Still, staying near the dynamic resistance may announce an imminent breakout and continuation.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/08/usd-chf-price-recovers-above-0-90-focus-on-us-cpi/