• The BoC might wait on a clearer Fed policy outlook to avoid a big divergence.

• Canada recorded a surprise trade deficit of C$ 2.28 billion in March.

• US equities rallied a day after the Fed held rates and sounded less hawkish than expected.

The USD/CAD outlook sharply turned toward bearish territory, stirred by the hawkish sentiments of Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. At the same time, the Canadian dollar, which usually tracks US equities, strengthened amid a rebound on Wall Street. Meanwhile, investors awaited the US nonfarm payrolls report for more clues on Fed policy.

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On Thursday, BoC governor Macklem said there is a limit to how much US and Canadian interest rates can diverge. Although he added that the limit was still far, it confirmed the view that the BoC will wait to see what the Fed does on interest rates to avoid a big divergence. Investors remain confident that the Bank of Canada will cut rates before the Fed. Moreover, this could happen in June.

Canada’s economy is slowly declining, while inflation is easing faster than expected. Therefore, conditions are aligning for the Bank of Canada to cut rates. Notably, data from Canada revealed a surprise trade deficit of C$ 2.28 billion as exports in the country fell faster than imports in March.

At the same time, US equities rallied a day after the Fed held rates and sounded less hawkish than expected. Investors cheered the fact that Powell maintained the outlook for rate cuts, eliminating fears of possible hikes to control inflation. However, the timing for the first cut remains unclear. Investors will likely wait for more guidance from the upcoming US employment figures.

USD/CAD key events today

• US nonfarm payrolls report
• US ISM Services PMI

USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears to pounce 1.3650 support

On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has fallen below the 30-SMA and could soon break below a solid support trendline. However, bears also face the 1.3650 key support level that could stop further declines.

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Notably, the price has made a whiplash move, sharply rising before declining and reversing most of the previous move. Bearish momentum is now stronger as the RSI sits well below 50. Therefore, there is a good chance the price will break below 1.3650. In this case, bears would target the 1.3551 support level.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/05/03/usd-cad-outlook-boc-governors-remarks-lift-canadian-dollar/