• Powell said the Fed needs greater confidence that inflation will reach its target.
• Investors lowered the chances of a Fed rate cut from 76% to 73%.
• Australia’s index for business conditions fell by two points in June.

The AUD/USD price analysis reveals a positive outlook, spurred by the dollar’s decline after Powell’s cautious comments in his latest speech. Meanwhile, the Aussie remained steady after data revealed worsening business conditions in June.

After the US jobs report last week, investors were eagerly awaiting Powell’s speech to see whether policymakers were gaining confidence to cut rates. However, when he spoke, he maintained that the Fed needs greater confidence that inflation will reach its target. Only then can policymakers be ready to implement a rate cut.

Still, Powell noted that the risk of a deterioration in the labor market was growing. Therefore, the central bank has to balance inflation with growth. After his speech, market participants lowered the chances of a rate cut from 76% to 73%.

According to experts, Powell and other policymakers will likely maintain their cautious tone because there are still several economic reports to come before the September meeting. Notably, the US will release three more inflation reports and two employment reports.

On Thursday, investors will watch the US consumer inflation report to see the state of price pressures. Further easing will increase confidence in a September cut.

On the other hand, data from Australia on Tuesday showed that the index for business conditions fell by two points in June. However, business confidence rose by six points, showing firms were confident about the future. The Reserve Bank of Australia might be the last major central bank to implement rate cuts. Therefore, high borrowing costs will likely continue hurting businesses for longer.

AUD/USD key events today

• Fed Chair Powell Testifies

AUD/USD technical price analysis: Exhausted bulls face the 0.6750 hurdle

On the technical side, the AUD/USD price trades near the 0.6750 key resistance level. It is above the 30-SMA and the RSI trades in bullish territory, supporting a bullish bias. Bulls recently broke above the 0.6700 major resistance level with a strong candle. However, the bullish move has weakened near 0.6750.

Therefore, bulls need a new surge in momentum to make a higher high and continue the uptrend. If they fail, the price will likely break below the 30-SMA and move to revisit the 0.6700 support level.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/07/10/aud-usd-price-analysis-powells-cautious-remarks-weaken-usd/