• The USD/CAD outlook remains vulnerable after tariffs.
• US NFP and Canadian jobs data are due today.
• The Fed Chair’s speech is important to watch for monetary policy clues.

The USD/CAD outlook remains deteriorated as the pair heads for a fourth consecutive losing day on Friday. The price is hovering around 1.4100 before hitting 4-month lows. The US dollar has continued to struggle since the imposition of tariffs. Moving ahead, investors are bracing for the release of the US NFP data for March.

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Market sentiment remains vulnerable following the announcement of new tariffs, including a baseline tariff of 10% on most imported goods and higher rates for imports from major trade partners such as China, Japan, and the European Union. The protectionist policies have triggered fears of a global recession and cast fresh doubts on the Fed’s rate cuts.

The New York session is likely to see high volatility as US NFP data approaches. The economists forecast an increase of 135,000 jobs in March, down from February’s 151,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%, while wage growth is expected to slow from the previous 4.0% to 3.8%.

In the lead-up to the report, the jobs market data is overall mixed. The US ADP report showed a significant rise of 155,000 jobs from February’s 84,000 jobs. On the other hand, job openings in Feb slipped to 7.56 million, the lowest since Sep 2024.

The NFP data can influence the Fed’s next move. The central bank maintained rates at the March meeting but signaled two potential rate cuts this year due to an economic slowdown and uncertainty following Trump’s tariffs. The Fed Chair emphasized caution while being prepared to ease if necessary.

From Canada, the risk sentiment is cautious. Canadian PM Carney reiterated the country’s retaliatory tariffs and hinted at imposing auto tariffs against the US. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain under pressure, limiting gains in the CAD.

Traders remain sidelined as jobs data from Both Canada and the US are due with Powell’s speech later today. A disappointing NFP print of under 120k can further ignite bearish sentiment. Contrarily, a strong figure above 150k could help the greenback gain its footing.

USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears stall above 1.4000

The 4-hour chart shows some signs of recovery for the pair. The RSI is slowly rising from the oversold zone, forming a pin bar pattern, which reveals a temporary stall in the bearish momentum. However, the 30-period SMA is near 1.4250, which is quite far from current levels.

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The major level for the sellers is 1.4000, which, if broken, can lead to 1.3925 and 1.3900. On the upside, 1.4100 is the immediate resistance followed by a support-turned resistance at 1.4240 confluence with 30-period SMA.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/04/usd-cad-outlook-trade-jitters-nfp-to-retain-selling-pressure/