• The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows dark clouds gathering over China’s economy.

• Trump imposed over 10% tariffs on all imports to the US.

• Data showed stronger job growth and higher unemployment in the US.

The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows dark clouds gathering over China’s economy, putting pressure on the Aussie.

Ups and downs of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD price had a bearish week, collapsing to fresh lows as Trump’s tariffs dimmed the outlook for China’s economy. Meanwhile, although the dollar initially fell, Powell’s cautious tone supported it towards the end of the week.

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Trump surprised markets with an aggressive move, slapping over 10% tariffs on all imports to the US. However, China has suffered the most, with over 60% tariffs on its goods. Consequently, the yuan collapsed, dragging the Aussie lower. Moreover, China promised counter-tariffs of 34% starting next week. The move added caution to Powell’s tone. Elsewhere, the RBA kept rates unchanged, and data showed stronger job growth and higher unemployment in the US.

Next week’s key events for AUD/USD

Next week, market participants will focus on key reports, including inflation numbers and the FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes will show what went into the decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the last meeting.

Meanwhile, the CPI and PPI reports will show the state of inflation in the economy. Recently, inflation expectations have been on the rise amid Trump’s tariffs. An upbeat report will boost these expectations and keep the Fed on a cautious policy path.

AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bearish momentum surges past the 0.6100 support

On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has plunged and is trading far below the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has entered the oversold region, indicating solid bearish momentum. Such a song bearish bias shows that the decline might continue next week.

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Previously, the price was trading in a corrective move after the downtrend failed to go below the 0.6100 support level. However, it paused at the 0.6400 resistance level. This allowed bears to return stronger, pushing the price off the SMA. As a result, AUD/USD broke below the 0.6100 support level, making a lower low. This move confirms that bears are ready to continue the previous downtrend.

Next week, bulls might return to retest the recently broken support. The downtrend will continue if it holds firm and the price continues lower. On the other hand, bulls might push the price to retest the SMA.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/05/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-facing-headwinds-as-china-suffers/