• The EUR/USD weekly forecast shows an investor migration from US assets.

• Market volatility shot up after Trump implemented reciprocal tariffs.

• Data revealed weaker-than-expected US consumer and wholesale inflation.

The EUR/USD weekly forecast is strongly bullish as investors start migrating from US assets, supporting the euro.

Ups and downs of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair had a bullish week as the dollar collapsed amid economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the euro rallied together with safe-haven currencies like the yen. Market volatility shot up after Trump implemented reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. The move caused panic as investors worried about the global economy.

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However, the dollar briefly rebounded when Trump paused these tariffs on most countries. Still, the raging trade wars between China and the US kept a lid on gains. Meanwhile, the euro rallied.

Additionally, data revealed weaker-than-expected US consumer and wholesale inflation. As a result, Fed rate cut expectations rose, further weighing on the dollar.

Next week’s key events for EUR/USD

Next week, market participants will focus on the US retail sales report. The report will show the state of consumer spending and shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. In the previous month, sales increased by 0.2%. In March, economists forecast a more significant increase of 1.4%. Softer-than-expected sales will signal weaker demand, putting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.

At the same time, the European Central Bank will hold its policy meeting on Thursday. Economists expect the central bank to cut rates by 25-bps.

EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls break key 1.1204 resistance

On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has had a strong bullish run, pushing the price past the 1.1204 resistance level. The rally also put the price far above the 22-SMA, showing the bulls have a strong lead. Meanwhile, the RSI has entered the overbought region, indicating solid bullish momentum.

Bulls took charge when the previous downtrend paused near the 1.0201 support level. After taking charge, they kept the price above the 22-SMA, respecting it as a strong support. The price has made a series of higher highs and lows, showing a developed bullish trend.

Given the solid bullish bias, the price might soon reach the 1.1603 key level. However, after such a steep swing from the SMA, bulls might need to rest. Therefore, EUR/USD might pull back to retest the recently broken 1.1204 level before climbing higher.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/12/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-investors-pivot-from-us-markets/