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Publish Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2024, 06:06 AM
BERLIN, Sept 26 (Reuters) - German consumer sentiment is expected to stabilise at a low level going into October, with households more willing to save money amid concerns about where Europe's largest economy is heading in the next 12 months, a survey showed on Thursday.
The consumer sentiment index, published by GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), unexpectedly increased slightly to -21.2 points going into October from a revised -21.9 the month before. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the index to fall to -22.5 going into October.
"After the severe setback in the previous month, the slight improvement in consumer sentiment can be interpreted as stabilisation at a low level," said NIM analyst Rolf Buerkl.
"The consumer climate has not made any progress since June 2024, when -21 points were measured for the consumer climate. Therefore, the slight increase cannot be interpreted as the start of a noticeable recovery," said the consumer analyst.
Labour market woes have been added to the list of factors weighing on sentiment, such as war and inflation, he added.
An improvement in income expectations and the propensity to buy boosted overall sentiment but was weighed down by a rise in the willingness to save and a fall in economic expectations.
The latest economic data paint a gloomy picture, with data earlier this week showing German business activity contracting in September at the sharpest pace in seven months and leading institutes slashing their forecasts for the coming years.
NOTE - The survey period was from Sept. 5-16, 2024.
The consumer climate indicator forecasts the progress of real private consumption in the following month.
An indicator reading above zero signals year-on-year growth in private consumption. A value below zero indicates a drop compared with the same period a year earlier.
According to GfK, a one-point change in the indicator corresponds to a year-on-year change of 0.1% in private consumption.
The "willingness to buy" indicator represents the balance between positive and negative responses to the question: "Do you think now is a good time to buy major items?"
The income expectations sub-index reflects expectations about the development of household finances in the coming 12 months.
The additional business cycle expectations index reflects respondents' assessment of the general economic situation over the next 12 months.
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-consumer-sentiment-stays-low-level-october-finds-gfk-2024-09-26/