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Publish Date: Fri, 28 Oct 2022, 09:51 AM
Market Update - 28 October 2022
USD/JPY extends its relentless rally in the European session this Thursday, as the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) status-quo on its monetary policy settings combined with the dovish rhetoric from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda revived the yen selling. Meanwhile, the extended recovery in the US dollar across its major peers, in the wake of the upbeat American advance Q3 GDP and end-of-the-week flows, also aids the renewed upside the pair.
The index adds to Thursday’s advance and approaches 111.00. The risk complex remains on the defensive following the ECB event. Core PCE, Final Consumer Sentiment next on tap in the docket. The greenback picks up extra pace in the second half of the week and approaches the key 111.00 region when measured by the USD Index (DXY) on Friday.
Gold price takes offers to refresh intraday low, pares weekly gains. DXY traces yields to extend previous day’s rebound ahead of US Core PCE Inflation data for September. Risk remains sour amid inflation/growth fears even as central bank policy hawks retreat. Gold price (XAU/USD) consolidates the second weekly upside as bears poke the $1,658 level heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the yellow metal traces the recent downside in commodities and Antipodeans amid the US dollar’s rebound.
Thursday’s strong advance in prices of natural gas was on the back of a small uptick in open interest, which suggests that further upside could be in store for the commodity in the very near term. Against that, the 200-day SMA around $6.73 per MMBtu continues to cap the upside for the time being.
NZD/USD has sensed selling pressure at around 0.5870 as the DXY has rebounded. Risk sentiment is turning averse as S&P500 futures have extended their morning losses. A slowdown in consumer spending has trimmed hawkish Fed bets.
Prices of the WTI extended the weekly recovery on Thursday. The small uptick was in tandem with increasing open interest and volume and opens the door to some consolidation in the very near term and with the immediate target at the $90.00 mark per barrel and beyond.
GBP/JPY is expected to deliver a steep fall below 169.00 despite an ultra-loose BOJ policy. The BOJ will continue policy easing to achieve pre-pandemic growth rates. Next week, the BOE could announce a rate hike by 75 bps to combat mounting price pressures.
USD/CAD takes offers to reverse the previous day’s bounce off monthly low. RSI, MACD suggests further downside past immediate horizontal support. 50-DMA, two-month-old ascending trend line lures bears, fortnight-long resistance line, 21-DMA test buyers.
The greenback bulls are facing barricades at the downward sloping trendline placed from 83.30. A Positive Divergence signals a resumption in the dominant trend after a corrective move. The DXY is struggling to sustain above 110.50 amid mixed market sentiment. The USD/INR pair is struggling to cross the immediate hurdle of 82.40 in the Tokyo session. However, the US dollar index (DXY) has witnessed a minor correction after failing to sustain above the critical resistance of 110.50. Meanwhile, risk sentiment remains quiet as S&P500 futures are holding their morning losses.
GBP/USD aims to recapture 1.1600 as DXY struggles amid declining odds for the ultra-hawkish Fed. A slowdown in consumer spending has indicated that the inflationary pressures are exhausting. UK’s novel leadership is focusing on squeezing liquidity through fiscal policy.
EUR/JPY pares the biggest daily loss in five weeks, whipsaws after BOJ’s verdict. BOJ left benchmark rate, YCC policy unchanged while matching market forecasts. Sustained trading beyond 100-SMA, monthly support line keeps buyers hopeful. Weekly resistance line holds the key to fresh multi-month high.
AUD/JPY has eased its morning gains and has dropped to 94.40 on BOJ’s unchanged monetary policy. BOJ’s Kuroda has continued its ultra-dovish policy stance due to weak inflation and growth prospects. The RBA may continue its 25 bps rate hike extent despite a historic surge in inflation.
Silver price snaps three-day winning streak but sellers remain cautious of late. Firmer RSI, a struggle to break 200-SMA keep buyers hopeful. Fortnight-old rising wedge bearish formation teases sellers amid a sluggish session. (FXStreet)
EUR/USD falls back from a fresh monthly high (1.0094) even as the European Central Bank (ECB) implements another 75bp rate hike, and fresh data prints coming out of the US may fuel the recent decline in the exchange rate as the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is anticipated to show sticky inflation. (DailyFX)
AUD/USD is trading at trendline resistance as prices eye a second consecutive weekly gain. A break above the trendline would bode well for the price outlook, but the 50-day Simple Moving Average poses a near-term obstacle above that. MACD is increasing towards its midpoint, reflecting healthy price momentum. Alternatively, a reversal lower would threaten the 2022 low. (DailyFX)
Source: FXStreet, DailyFX
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