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Publish Date: Mon, 07 Aug 2023, 09:22 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose 187,000 in July, compared to the market expectation of 200,000, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. With the immediate reaction, the USD came under modest bearish pressure. Some hawkish comments from Fed officials, however, seem to have helped the USD regain its poise. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman argued that the Fed should remain willing to raise the policy rate if data show that progress on inflation has stalled. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic argued that the Fed should keep monetary policy in a restrictive territory well into 2024. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are still pricing in a nearly 30% probability of one more 25 basis points Fed rate hike before the end of the year. (FXStreet)
EUR/USD comes under some selling pressure and is undermined by reviving USD demand. Bets for more Fed rate hikes turn out to be a key factor lending some support to the buck. Expectations that the ECB will soon end its rate-hiking cycle contribute to the offered tone. (FXStreet)
AUD/USD meets with some intraday supply on Monday and is pressured by reviving USD demand. The US jobs data reaffirms expectations for one more rate hike by the Fed and underpins the USD. China’s economic woes and a softer risk tone also contribute to driving flow away from the Aussie. (FXStreet)
NZD/USD regains positive traction on Monday, albeit lacks follow-through. A positive tone around the US equity futures benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi. Bets for more Fed rate hikes revive the USD demand and act as a headwind. (FXStreet)
USD/JPY stands above the 50- and 100-hour EMAs with an upward slope. The immediate resistance emerges at 142.60; the key contention is located at 142.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below 50, MACD holds in bearish territory. (FXStreet)
GBP/USD attracts some sellers on Monday and is pressured by modest USD strength. Bets for more interest rate hikes by the Fed help revive demand for the Greenback. The BoE’s less hawkish forward guidance also contributes to the mildly offered tone. (FXStreet)
USD/CAD seeks clear directions at two-month high as bulls and bears jostle after four-day uptrend. WTI crude oil retreats from yearly high marked in April amid fears of slowing energy demand from China, firmer US Dollar. Downbeat Canada employment report contrasts with mixed US jobs report and hawkish Fed talks to keep Loonie pair buyers hopeful. US CPI for July will be crucial for bulls to watch amid Fed’s readiness for rate hike in September. (FXStreet)
USD/CHF prints the first daily gains in three within one-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. 50-SMA adds strength to 0.8720–15 support amid bearish MACD signals. 200-SMA guards immediate upside ahead of nine-week-old descending resistance line. Multiple troughs marked since mid-July together constitute short-term key support near 0.8565-55. (FXStreet)
USD/CNH clings to mild gains during two-day winning streak. Fears of China typhoon Doksuri, US economic fears propel offshore China Yuan price. Expectations of China stimulus, consolidation ahead of US inflation add strength to corrective bounce. Inflation data from US, China will be crucial for clear directions. (FXStreet)
USD/IDR clings to mild gains around intraday high despite better-than-prior Q2 Indonesia GDP. US Dollar rebounds ahead of inflation data amid hawkish Fed talks, mixed statistics at home. Cautious optimism in Asia-Pacific zone joins sluggish markets to restrict Rupiah moves. (FXStreet)
USD/INR posts a modest gain around 82.70 ahead of the key event. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hold the key interest rate at 6.50%. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the US economy added 187,000 jobs in July. Investors focus on the RBI policy meeting, the Indian CPI Industrial Production. (FXStreet)
USD/MXN holds lower ground near intraday bottom, defends previous day’s U-turn from support-turned-resistance. Clear break below 50-DMA keeps Mexican Peso buyers hopeful. US CPI, Mexico Core Inflation for July eyed for clear directions. (FXStreet)
GBP/JPY snaps three-day downtrend but lacks follow-through. 21-EMA, bearish MACD signals prod pair buyers even as upbeat yields, cautious optimism favor upside. Downbeat prints of preliminary readings of Q2 UK GDP, break of 50-EMA can convince sellers to retake control. (FXStreet)
AUD/JPY stays defensive around 93.50, gaining 0.37% for the day. The cross trades within a descending trend channel line from the middle of June on the four-hour chart. The immediate resistance level for AUD/JPY is seen at 94.00; an initial support level is located at 93.00. (FXStreet)
EUR/GBP retreats from intraday high after rising in the last four consecutive days. German Industrial Production growth contracts more than expected in June. Fears of downbeat UK employment conditions, economic fears about Britain check pair bears. UK Q2 GDP, second-tier data from Eurozone/Germany may entertain traders. (FXStreet)
The index regains the smile and retest the 102.30 area. Fed’s Bowman advocated for further tightening if needed. US inflation figures will be the salient event this week. The greenback, when gauged by the USD Index (DXY), leaves behind part of the recent weakness and reclaims the area around 102.30 as the risk-off mood seems to prevail early on Monday. (FXStreet)
WTI crude oil prints three-day winning streak to poke yearly high marked in April, sticks to daily gains of late. OPEC+ production cuts join price-positive statements from Saud Arabia, Russia to underpin Oil price run-up. Hopes of easy rates, China stimulus and US Dollar’s pullback add strength to WTI run-up. This week’s inflation data from US, China will be crucial for Oil traders. (FXStreet)
Natural gas prices aimed cautiously lower over past 2 weeks. Daily price action continues to underscore a neutral view. Meanwhile, 4-hour chart is showing bearish developments. (DailyFX)
Gold price drops sharply amid strength in the US Dollar as focus shifts to US CPI. Fed’s Bostic supports the continuation of the rate-tightening cycle amid resilience in consumer spending. JP Morgan looks confident that the US economy will not enter a recession. (FXStreet)
Silver comes under fresh selling pressure on Monday and seems vulnerable to sliding further. Failure near the 50% Fibo. and negative oscillators on the daily chart favour bearish traders. A sustained move beyond the $24.00 confluence is needed to negate the negative outlook. (FXStreet)
Bitcoin spent the weekend in a relatively tight channel and was last seen moving sideways at around $29,000. Ethereum struggles to find direction and moves up and down in a narrow band slightly above $1,800. (FXStreet)
Source: FXStreet, DailyFX
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