POUND STERLING / JAPANESE YEN

LONDON, July 24 (Reuters) - Sterling gained on the euro on Wednesday after a survey showed British business activity this month was stronger than in euro zone economies, while it held steady on the dollar and tumbled against a rebounding Japanese yen. The euro was last down 0.1% on the pound at 84.04 pence not far from its two year low of 83.84 pence hit earlier in July. British business activity picked up this month, bolstered by the fastest manufacturing growth in two years and the strongest inflow of new orders since April 2023, PMI survey data showed Wednesday. In contrast, growth in euro zone business activity stalled. "The divergence in economic fortunes is being reflected by currency markets so far this morning," said Nick Rees, FX Market analyst at Monex Europe. The pound has been supported in recent months by better-than expected economic data, some stability from a new government, and also the Bank of England being slower to cut rates than some peers, including the European Central Bank, due to fears about sticky services inflation. The BoE next meets in August, and markets see around a 45% chance of them cutting rates. Rees said Wednesday's data would do little to push the BoE towards or away from an August cut as it showed a mixed picture regarding the pass through from wages to inflation. The pound was flat on the dollar at $1.29075. Sterling's most dramatic move was against the Japanese yen, tumbling 0.55% to 199.67 yen, having been above 207 earlier this month. The yen has been strengthening broadly after likely official intervention to prop it up earlier in July, a rise in volatility causing traders to unwind yen-funded 'carry trades' that have hurt the currency, and a possibility of a rate increase from the Bank of Japan next week. It could go further, and Nomura strategists, on Wednesday recommended a short GBP/JPY trade to clients, targeting 190.50 per pound by end-September. Behind the idea, they said were: softening UK data, an under priced August BoE rate cut and BOJ July rate hike, shaky broad risk appetite and stretched long sterling positioning. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/pound-gains-euro-after-mixed-activity-data-tumbles-yen-2024-07-24/

Japanese Yen Prices, Charts, and Analysis Japanese services PPI moves sharply higher. USD/JPY still under threat from official intervention. One gauge of Japanese inflation rose by more than forecast in April, denting recent Japanese Yen weakness. The April services PPI reading accelerated by 2.8% y/y, beating expectations of 2.3% and an upwardly revised 2.4% in March. Today’s reading showed the sharpest rate of increase since March 2015. Today’s data will have been noted by the Bank of Japan as they look for customer inflation to become entrenched so they can start to reverse their multi-decade, ultra-loose monetary policy. While USD/JPY continues to print higher lows off the late-December low, the series of higher highs is currently broken and may well stay that way under threat of official intervention. For the pair to move lower, a break of both the 20-day and 50-day smas, at 155.58 and 154.20 respectively, needs to happen. Below here, support is seen just below 152.00. A move higher will find resistance at 158.00 and the April 29, multi-decade spike high at 160.21. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Retail trader data show 26.27% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.81 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 2.70% higher than yesterday and 3.73% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.70% higher than yesterday and 5.02% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Markets Week Ahead: Gold, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Eurozone Inflation, US Core PCE GBP/JPY continues to push higher on the back of Sterling strength. Recent UK economic data has pushed back the timing of the first UK rate cut, with the first 25 basis point move lower now seen in November., although a move at the September meeting cannot be ruled out. This hawkish push-back has propped up Sterling and helped push USD/JPY back to the 200 level and within touching distance of levels last seen in August 2008. A confirmed break higher could see GBP/JPY test 202 ahead of 205. Again, Japanese officials will be wary of allowing the Yen to weaken further. GBP/JPY Daily Price Chart The EUR/JPY looks similar to the GBP/JPY chart although the macro picture is different. The ECB is fully expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next week’s central bank meeting and this may temper further upside in the pair. GBP/JPY Daily Price Chart What is your view on the Japanese Yen – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-latest-forecasts-usd-jpy-gbp-jpy-and-eur-jpy-20240528.html

Most Read: Gold, EUR/USD, USD/JPY – Price Action Analysis & Technical Outlook In the dynamic world of trading, it's tempting to follow the masses, buying in bullish cycles, and selling during bearish phases. However, seasoned traders know that substantial opportunities often arise from unconventional strategies. One such strategy involves moving against the dominant market view, which can sometimes lead to favorable outcomes. Contrarian trading isn't about opposing the crowd for the sake of it. Instead, it's about recognizing moments when the majority might be wrong and seizing those opportunities. Tools like IG client sentiment provide valuable insights into the overall market mood, highlighting periods of extreme optimism or pessimism that could indicate an upcoming reversal. Yet, relying solely on contrarian signals doesn't guarantee success. Their true value emerges when integrated into a comprehensive trading strategy that combines both technical and fundamental analysis. By merging these perspectives, traders can uncover deeper market dynamics often missed by those who follow the majority. To illustrate this concept, let's examine IG client sentiment data and what current retail segment positioning indicates for three key Japanese yen FX pairs: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY. Analyzing these examples shows how contrarian thinking can help uncover attractive trading opportunities and navigate market complexities. USD/JPY FORECAST – MARKET SENTIMENT IG data reveals a prevailing bearish sentiment on USD/JPY, with 73.65% of clients holding net-short positions, resulting in a significant short-to-long ratio of 2.80 to 1. The tally of sellers has remained relatively stable since yesterday, but has increased by 4.57% over the past week. Meanwhile, bullish traders have fallen by 5.36% since the previous session and are down 14.21% compared to last week. Our trading strategy often adopts a contrarian perspective, finding opportunities where the majority disagrees. That said, the widespread pessimism on USD/JPY suggests the potential for further price appreciation in the near future. The persistent net-short positioning over key timeframes reinforces the positive outlook for USD/JPY. Key Insight: Sentiment data indicates a strong contrarian bullish signal for USD/JPY. However, it is crucial to incorporate both technical and fundamental analysis into your trading strategy to fully understand the pair's potential direction. EUR/JPY FORECAST – MARKET SENTIMENT IG data paints a picture of widespread bearish sentiment towards EUR/JPY, with 78.83% of traders selling the pair (short-to-long ratio of 3.72 to 1). This typically signals potential upside from a contrarian perspective. However, the picture is more nuanced than it seems. While the overall mood remains bearish, there's been a slight easing in net-short bets compared to yesterday (down 2.05%). On the other hand, the number of sellers has risen compared to last week, with net-short positions increasing by 7.43%. This creates a mixed contrarian signal. While the overall bearishness hints at possible further gains for EUR/JPY, the recent fluctuations in positioning raise questions about the strength of this contrarian outlook. Key Insight: The current market sentiment for EUR/JPY presents a complex picture. While a contrarian view suggests potential upside, the recent shifts in positioning warrant caution. A comprehensive approach, integrating technical and fundamental analysis with sentiment data, is crucial for making informed trading decisions. Disheartened by trading losses? Empower yourself and refine your strategy with our guide, "Traits of Successful Traders." Gain access to crucial tips to help you avoid common pitfalls and costly errors. GBP/JPY FORECAST – MARKET SENTIMENT IG client data reveals a pronounced bearish bias towards GBP/JPY, with 73.82% of traders holding short positions (short-to-long ratio of 2.82 to 1). This pessimism has grown in recent days, with a noticeable increase in short positions compared to both yesterday (up 8.75%) and last week (up 22.37%). Our trading strategy often leverages a contrarian perspective. This widespread negativity towards GBP/JPY, along with the surge in bearish wagers, hints at the possibility of continued upward momentum for the pair in the near term. The persistent bearishness further reinforces this bullish contrarian outlook. Key Insight: The current IG client sentiment data points to a strong contrarian bullish signal for GBP/JPY. However, remember that a comprehensive trading strategy should also incorporate technical and fundamental analysis to gain a full picture of the pair's potential path. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-japanese-yen-sentiment-analysis-outlook-usd-jpy-eur-jpy-gbp-jpy-20240523.html

Japanese Yen Prices, Charts, and Analysis Tokyo inflation fell sharply in April, adding to the BoJ’s problems. Japanese Yen weakness is seen across the board, when will the BoJ step in? The Japanese Yen has touched new multi-decade lows against a basket of currencies following the Bank of Japan's expected decision to keep its monetary policy unchanged. The latest catalyst for the Yen's decline was weaker-than-expected inflation data from Tokyo, which has further solidified the central bank's accommodative stance. Tokyo CPI is seen as an important leading indicator for national inflation. As the BoJ diverges from other major central banks in policy tightening, the Yen remains vulnerable to further volatility and depreciation. The next data release for traders to follow is US Core PCE at 13:30. Yesterday’s BEA inflation readings showed inflation remaining elevated and at levels that will prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting rates in Q3. Market probabilities now show one 25 basis point rate cut, most likely at the November 7th FOMC meeting, with a total of 34 basis points of cuts now predicted in 2024. On the back of reduced rate cut expectations, the dollar's ongoing strength is also acting as a tailwind for USD/JPY. USD/JPY is now above 155.00, seen by the market as the level at which the BoJ will start seriously considering FX intervention to prop up the Yen. This line in the sand has now been breached and brings into question if coordinated FX intervention is being talked about by the BoJ with other major central banks. The weakness of the Yen makes Japanese exports more competitive globally, and may soon spark calls from other central bankers and finance ministers for this advantage to be reined in. The charts below show the relentless weakening of the Yen and bring official intervention ever closer. The longer the BoJ remains on the sidelines, the more markets will force them into action. The longer the BoJ waits, the more violent the subsequent Yen appreciation will be. The Japanese Yen used to be seen as a safe currency to trade, aided by the carry trade. That is no longer the case and strict risk management is a must when trading any Japanese Yen crosses. Looking at three monthly Yen charts highlights the weakness in the Japanese currency. USD/JPY now trades around 156.75, a 34-year high…. USD/JPY Monthly Price Chart Retail trader data shows 15.39% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 5.50 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 2.82% higher than yesterday and 8.10% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.56% higher than yesterday and 7.20% higher than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. GBP/JPY is at levels last seen in September 2008 and is within touching distance of 200… GBP/JPY Monthly Price Chart …while EUR/JPY is at levels last seen in August 2008. EUR/JPY Monthly Price Chart What is your view on the Japanese Yen – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-slumps-to-fresh-multi-decade-lows-usd-jpy-eyes-us-pce-report-20240426.html

Japanese Yen USD/JPY and GBP/JPY Prices, Charts, and Analysis USD/JPY – US data and BoJ policy decisions may make or break USD/JPY this week. GBP/JPY – Weak Sterling sees GBP/JPY reject resistance. Most Read: USD/JPY Latest: Trilateral Meeting Hints at Co-ordinated Intervention Effort The Bank of Japan will announce its latest monetary policy decision on Friday, and while the central bank is fully expected to leave all policy settings untouched, as with all central bank meetings, post-decision commentary is key. Current financial market expectations are showing just a 10% probability of a 10 basis point rate hike and unless the BoJ gives the market something to work with, and not just talk about following the exchange rate closely, the Japanese Yen is set to remain weak. This week also sees three important US data releases, durable goods, the first look at Q1 GDP, and the latest Core PCE reading. US growth is seen slowing, but remains robust, while a move in Core PCE will give the Federal Reserve some wiggle room for one or possibly two rate cuts later this year. The US dollar is pushing higher today and is looking set to post a fresh multi-month high. US Treasury yields remain elevated and will stay that way this week as $183 billion of combined 2s, 5s, and 7s hit the street. In addition, the Euro continues to slip lower, while Sterling is under pressure on renewed rate cut hopes. The Euro (57.6%) is the largest component of the dollar index, while the British Pound (11.9%) is the third-largest. If the dollar index breaks last week’s 106.58 high, the October 2nd print at 107.33 becomes the next level of resistance. US Dollar Index Daily Chart According to market thoughts, including ours, the 155.00 is the line in the sand for USD/JPY before official intervention is seen. This level now looks increasingly vulnerable due to recent US dollar strength. The technical outlook also looks bullish and a break above could see the pair move to 156.00 or 157.00 with speed. A difficult pair to trade currently with the BoJ/MoF looking on with great interest. Learn How to Trade USD/JPY with our Free Guide USD/JPY Daily Price Chart The recent GBP/JPY sell-off is nearly all due to Sterling weakness as BoE rate expectations are pulled in. After battling with the 192-193 area for the best part of this month, recent Sterling weakness has seen the pair drop to around 190.50. A break below 190.00 will bring the 188.80 area into play before 186s act as support. This year’s series of higher lows remains intact, and the series of higher highs looks to be broken. GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Outlooks – Sterling Weakens After Bank of England Commentary GBP/JPY Daily Price Chart What is your view on the Japanese Yen – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-latest-usd-jpy-and-gbp-jpy-technical-analysis-and-outlooks-20240422.html

Most Read: British Pound Trade Setups & Technical Analysis - GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY Trading environments often tempt us to follow the herd – buying into soaring prices and selling off in moments of widespread fear. However, savvy, and experienced traders understand the potential opportunities that lie within contrarian strategies. Tools like IG client sentiment offer a unique window into the market's overall mood, potentially identifying instances where excessive optimism or pessimism might signal a contrarian setup and impending reversal. Of course, contrarian signals aren't a guarantee of success. They gain their true power when integrated within a well-rounded trading strategy. By carefully blending contrarian observations with technical and fundamental analysis, traders develop a richer understanding of the forces shaping the market – dynamics that the masses might easily overlook. Let's explore this idea by examining IG client sentiment and its potential impact on the Japanese yen across three crucial pairs: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY. USD/JPY FORECAST – MARKET SENTIMENT IG data reveals a heavily bearish stance towards USD/JPY, with 84.98% of clients holding net-short positions. This translates to a substantial short-to-long ratio of 5.66 to 1. Our trading approach often favors a contrarian viewpoint. This overwhelming bearish sentiment hints at a potential continuation of the USD/JPY's upward trajectory. The fact that traders are even more bearish than yesterday and last week strengthens this bullish contrarian outlook. Important Reminder: While contrarian signals offer a unique perspective on market sentiment, it's crucial to integrate them into a broader analytical framework. Combine contrarian insights with technical and fundamental analysis for a more informed approach to trading USD/JPY. Wondering where the euro might be headed over the coming months? Explore our second-quarter outlook for expert insights and analysis. Request your free guide today! EUR/JPY FORECAST – MARKET SENTIMENT IG data indicates a strong bearish bias towards EUR/JPY, with a substantial 83.24% of clients currently holding net-short positions. This results in a short-to-long ratio of 4.97 to 1. Our trading strategy often incorporates a contrarian perspective. This prevalent bearishness on EUR/JPY suggests the potential for further upward movement in the pair. The increasing number of net-short positions compared to yesterday and last week reinforces this bullish contrarian outlook. Crucial Note: While contrarian signals can offer valuable insights, they are most powerful when integrated into a comprehensive trading approach. Always consider technical and fundamental analysis alongside sentiment data for the most informed decisions about EUR/JPY. GBP/JPY FORECAST – MARKET SENTIMENT IG data reveals a significant bearish tilt among traders towards GBP/JPY. Currently, 79.34% hold net-short positions, resulting in a short-to-long ratio of 3.84 to 1. We often employ a contrarian approach to market sentiment. This widespread pessimism towards GBP/JPY suggests additional gains may be in store for the pair before any type of meaningful pullback. The continued increase in net-short positions strengthens this bullish contrarian outlook. Important Point: Remember that contrarian signals are just one tool in a trader's arsenal. A comprehensive trading strategy should also incorporate technical and fundamental analysis for a well-rounded approach to GBP/JPY. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-japanese-yen-sentiment-analysis-outlook-usd-jpy-eur-jpy-gbp-jpy-20240419.html

Want to stay ahead of the pound's next major move? Access our quarterly forecast for comprehensive insights. Request your complimentary guide now to stay informed on market trends! GBP/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD fell moderately on Thursday but remained above support at 1.2430. Bulls must vigorously defend this floor to prevent a deeper pullback; failure to do so may result in a retracement towards 1.2325. Subsequent losses beyond this point may lead to a retest of the October 2023 lows near 1.2040. On the flip side, if sentiment shifts back in favor of buyers and prices reverse to the upside off current levels, resistance looms at 1.2525. Above this critical barrier, the focus will transition to the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2570, followed by 1.2640, where the 50-day simple moving average aligns with two important short-term trendlines. GBP/USD PRICE ACTION CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView EUR/GBP FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/GBP rallied earlier in the week but reversed its course on Thursday after failing to clear trendline resistance at 0.8570, with prices dropping towards the 50-day simple moving average at 0.8550. The pair is likely to stabilize around current levels before mounting a comeback, but in the event of a breakdown, a dip towards 0.8520 and potentially 0.8500 could be around the corner. Alternatively, if bulls manage to reassert dominance and push the exchange rate higher, resistance emerges at 0.8570 as mentioned before. Breaking through this technical obstacle could set the stage for a surge toward the 200-day simple moving average near the 0.8600 handle. Disheartened by trading losses? Empower yourself and refine your strategy with our guide, "Traits of Successful Traders." Gain access to crucial tips to help you avoid common pitfalls and costly errors. EUR/GBP PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/GBP Char Creating Using TradingView GBP/JPY FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/JPY was largely flat on Thursday, trading slightly below trendline resistance at 192.70. Bears need to protect this ceiling tooth and nail; any lapse could spark a move towards the 2024 highs at 193.55. On further strength, a jump towards the psychological 195.00 mark cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, if the pair gets rejected from its current position and pivots to the downside, support stretches from 190.60 to 190.15, where a rising trendline converges with the 50-day simple moving average and April’s swing lows. Additional losses below this floor could reinforce bearish impetus, opening the door for a drop towards 187.90. GBP/JPY PRICE ACTION CHART GBP/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-british-pound-trade-setups-technical-analysis-gbp-usd-eur-gbp-gbp-jpy-20240418.html

Pound Sterling (GBP/USD, GBP/JPY) Analysis Sterling fundamentals muddy the water and BoE officials weigh in on inflation GBP/USD attempts to halt the decline, struggles with traction GBP/JPY consolidates just short of yearly high as JPY intervention speculation heats up Get your hands on the Pound Sterling Q2 outlook today for exclusive insights into key market catalysts that should be on every trader's radar: Sterling Fundamentals Muddy the Water and BoE Officials Weigh in on Inflation Recent UK fundamental data has been fairly mixed, but on balance, rate cuts are still on track for this year. The Bank of England (BoE) has forecasted that inflation will drop sharply in the first half of this year, reaching the 2% target by mid-year. UK CPI this week continued to show progress for both headline and core CPI measures despite missing consensus estimates. Earlier in the week average wage data proved stubborn and this is something the BoE is looking at closely, along with services inflation. The BoE has also been quick to point out that wage growth remains hotter in the UK than in the US and the EU when questioned about the timing of rate cuts. Stubborn wage growth and services sector inflation can support the pound at it implies interest rates need to remain higher for longer to see these pockets of inflation head lower. Yesterday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey admitted there has been some loosening in the labour market and expects next month’s inflation number to reveal a strong drop. In addition, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene commented on progress made regarding inflation and that the ‘last mile’ will be difficult. Broader disinflation and a weaker labour market are scenarios that could weigh on sterling. All of these contrasting fundamental inputs aren’t helping the pound, especially at a time when the US dollar remains strong. GBP/USD Attempts to Halt the Decline, Struggles with Traction Cable has dropped massively since that hot US CPI print but has consolidated below the 1.2500 psychological level. Again today, price action attempted to tag the 1.2500 level but subsequently pulled away. The US Dollar Basket (DXY) revealed a lower move yesterday and is slightly higher today – keeping the pound at arms length. Failing to break above 1.2500 keeps the bearish bias alive, with a further sell-off eying a move towards 1.2200 which is a significant distance away from current levels. A close and hold above 1.2500 opens up the possibility of a deeper pullback towards the 200-day simple moving average. For now, the high-flying USD is likely to weigh on the weaker sterling. GBP/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow GBP/JPY Consolidates Just Short of the Yearly High as JPY Intervention Speculation Heats up GBP/JPY has consolidated just short of the yearly high of 193.50 as yen FX intervention speculation shifted up a gear. Trilateral talks between US, Japanese and South Korean finance heads underscore the seriousness with which Japan is considering actions to strengthen the yen. As can be expected, markets appear nervous to push higher in the event Japanese authorities do act. Despite USD/JPY being the problematic currency pair, sterling is likely to feel some knock-on effects too. 193.50 remains the ceiling, while 191.30 provides the immediate level of support, followed by the dynamic support provided by the 50 SMA GBP/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Stay up to date with the latest breaking news and themes driving the market by signing up to the DailyFX weekly newsletter: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/pound-sterling-latest-boe-inflation-nod-hampers-gbp-recovery-20240418.html

Japanese Yen Prices, Charts, and Analysis USD/JPY – Will a break of 155.00 wake up the Bank of Japan? GBP/JPY – A fresh, short-term high? Japanese Yen Q2 Forecasts: Unlock Exclusive Insights into Key Market Catalysts for Traders The Bank of Japan is seemingly comfortable sitting on the sidelines and watching the Yen drift ever lower, despite the occasional bout of verbal intervention. Over the last few weeks, the Japanese central bank has voiced its concern over the weakness of the Yen, warning that they are closely watching market moves and volatility, but words it seems are no longer enough to prop up the currency. USD/JPY remains close to an all-time high, while GBP/JPY is setting up for a technical push higher. The consensus view that 155.00 is a ‘line in the sand’ for USD/JPY and will trigger a response by the Bank of Japan, is being tested, especially as the US dollar pushes ever higher. While the Yen remains weak, the US dollar has rallied sharply in the last few days as traders pushed back expectations of when the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates. This hawkish reset has seen US Treasury yields rally to multi-month highs, with the yield on the rate-sensitive UST 2-year hitting 5% on Tuesday. The current technical setup on the UST 2-year is bullish after a clean break above the 200-day sma, while the 20-dsma is looking to move above the longer-dated moving average. A potential bullish flag and pole setup is currently being made and traders should monitor this setup in the coming days. US Treasury Two-Year Yield A bullish flag and pole setup is being played out on the daily USD/JPY chart and suggests that the pair may move higher and above 155.00. As discussed earlier, this is seen as a potential intervention target so traders need to be aware of any official BoJ chatter. If the central bank allows USD/JPY to move higher, then 160.00 becomes the next target. Prior resistance at 151.92 is now the first level of support. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Retail trader data shows 16.19% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 5.18 to 1.The number of traders' net long is 2.26% lower than yesterday and 6.04% higher than last week, while the number of traders' net short is 3.74% higher than yesterday and 2.22% lower than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. GBP/JPY continues to post an unbroken series of higher lows, and a break above the mid-to-late March double top around 193.50 would continue a series of higher highs. Above here, the June 2015 high at 195.88 heaves into view. Initial support is around 191.00. GBP/JPY Daily Price Chart What is your view on the Japanese Yen – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-forecast-usd-jpy-and-gbp-jpy-technical-analysis-and-potential-set-ups-20240417.html

USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK USD/JPY soared during the first three months of 2024, advancing more than 7% before the end of the first quarter. Following this upswing, the pair was trading slightly below its 2022 and 2023 highs, located near the psychological 152.00 level on March 22, an important resistance threshold that traders should keep on their radar in the near term. In terms of potential scenarios, a push beyond 152.00 could theoretically reinforce upward momentum and give way to a rally towards 154.00. However, any bullish breakout may not hold for long, as the Japanese government may quickly step in to support the yen. For this reason, a rise above the 152.00 area could be viewed as an opportunity to fade strength. However, in the absence of FX intervention, bulls could feel emboldened to launch an attack on 158.50, followed by 160.00, the April 1990 high. On the other hand, if USD/JPY is rejected from its current position and pivots to the downside, support emerges at 146.50 near the March swing low and the 200-day simple moving average. Below this, subsequent levels of support materialize at 145.00, 143.50, and 140.45, the latter marking the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement derived from the upward phase spanning 2021 to 2022. Additional losses beyond this juncture would shift focus towards 137.00 and subsequently to 133.25. USD/JPY Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, Prepared by Diego Colman EUR/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK EUR/JPY also advanced sharply in the first quarter of the year, briefly topping the 165.00 threshold, and hitting its strongest mark in nearly 16 years. While bulls appear to be in control of the steering wheel, we are unlikely to see a sustained move above 165.00 because Japanese authorities, who seek to prevent substantial depreciation of the yen, may step in to contain the bleeding. In the unexpected case that EUR/JPY manages to break past 165.00 decisively and Tokyo remains on the sidelines, buyers may feel emboldened to launch an attack on the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel at 168.75. If euro’s momentum continues to build unchecked, the market could set its sights on the 2008 highs near the psychological 170.00 level. Alternatively, if upward impetus starts fading and prices shift downwards over the coming weeks, sellers may muster the courage to challenge trendline support and the 200-day simple moving average near 159.70. The pair may attempt to bottom out in this area before rebounding, but should a breakdown materialize, bulls may head for the hills, paving the way for a retracement towards channel support at 153.10. Subsequent losses from this point could precipitate a drop towards 151.60, followed by 148.70. EUR/JPY Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, Prepared by Diego Colman Discover out top 3 trading opportunities for the second quarter. Request the guide now! GBP/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK The British pound was no exception and also strengthened dramatically against the Japanese yen in the first quarter, with GBP/JPY rising above the 190.00 handle to levels not tested since August 2015. With traders positioning for a rate cut from the Bank of England in the second quarter and the Bank of Japan finally normalizing its stance, the path of least resistance may be lower for the pair in the medium term despite its constructive technical outlook. In the event of a bearish reversal, GBP/JPY may encounter support around 189.00 and 184.75 thereafter, where the 200-day simple moving average meets a medium-term ascending trendline at the time of writing. Subsequent losses beyond the aforementioned thresholds could draw attention towards 178.00 - key swing lows of December and October last year. The pair may establish a foothold in the region; however, a drop below it could prompt a move towards 176.50, followed by 172.25. On the other hand, if bulls maintain their grip on the market and propel the exchange higher, resistance emerges at 193.50, this year’s peak. Drawing from past patterns, bears may resist another bullish advance at this juncture. However, in the event of a clean and decisive breakout, a rally towards the 2015 highs near 196.00 could be on the horizon. GBP/JPY Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, Prepared by Diego Colman https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-japanese-yen-q2-technical-forecast-usd-jpy-eur-jpy-gbp-jpy-at-critical-juncture-20240329.html