2023-09-29 03:44
The bias remains bearish despite temporary rebounds. A new lower low activates more declines. The US data could shake the rate today. The gold price extended its sell-off, reaching the $1,872 level. The precious metal has dropped by 1.65% from yesterday’s high of $1,903. Now, it’s trading at $1,874 at the time of writing. The bias remains bearish within the current sideways movement. The dollar’s upside continuation is the primary cause of gold’s softer outlook. This situation pushed the yellow metal toward new lows. Fundamentally, the XAU/USD took a hit from the US data yesterday. The Core Durable Goods Orders rose by 0.4%, beating the 0.2% growth estimated, while Durable Goods Orders increased by 0.2% even if the specialists expected a 0.5% drop. Today, the US economic figures and the Fed Chair Powell Speaks could be decisive again. In the short term, the XAU/USD tries to rebound as the DXY retreats a little. Still, better-than-expected US data could lift the USD again. The Final GDP is expected to report a 2.2% growth versus the 2.1% growth in the previous reporting period. Furthermore, the Final GDP Price Index, Pending Home Sales, and Unemployment Claims data will also be released. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Distribution Phase Gold hourly price chart As you can see on the hourly chart, the gold price ignored the $1,885 historical level, the channel’s downside line, and the descending pitchfork’s lower median line (LML), confirming strong sellers and a downside continuation. It moves sideways, right below the downside line and under the lower median line (LML). The current range could represent a downside continuation pattern. A new lower low activates more declines. The weekly S3 of $1,861 is a potential downside target if the rate continues to drop. Still, staying above the $1,872 low and making a new higher high, returning above the downside line may signal a potential rebound. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-facing-deeper-retracement-as-dollar-demand-surges/
2023-09-05 09:54
US jobs data indicated a potential cooling trend. Markets are pricing in a 93% likelihood of the Fed pausing this month. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak later in the day. Today’s EUR/USD outlook is slightly bullish. On Monday, the dollar slipped as US markets observed a holiday. At the same time, investors assessed US jobs data, indicating a potential cooling trend. Consequently, there was increased speculation that the Federal Reserve may have reached the end of its monetary tightening efforts. Notably, Friday’s data revealed an uptick in US job growth for August. However, it also showed a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.8%, along with moderated wage gains. Furthermore, the economy generated 110,000 fewer jobs than initially reported for June and July. Economic indicators highlighting slowing inflation and a softening labor market have reinforced the belief that the US economy is cooling. Meanwhile, according to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a 93% likelihood of the Fed pausing this month. Moreover, there is a more than 60% chance of no further rate hikes this year. However, given the closure of US markets on Monday, liquidity could be limited. Despite European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s scheduled speech later in the day, analysts at UniCredit anticipate subdued trading activity on Monday. The euro showed a 0.2% increase but remained just above a 10-week low against the dollar reached last week. Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor speeches from several Federal Reserve officials. These will help them gain insights into the central bank’s intentions leading up to its next policy meeting on September 19-20. EUR/USD key events today Investors are not awaiting any major economic releases from the US. However, a speech later from ECB president Christine Lagarde could move the pair a bit. EUR/USD technical outlook: Buyers stage a comeback with a feeble rebound. EUR/USD 4-hour chart On the charts, the EUR/USD’s decline has paused at the 1.0775 support level. Buyers have resurfaced and are attempting a rebound. However, the rebound is weak as the price has made smaller candles than the previous move. Meanwhile, the indicators suggest a continuation of the downward move. The 30-SMA sits above the price supporting buyers, and the RSI is in bearish territory below 50. Therefore, bears might soon return to retest and possibly break below 1.0775. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-outlook-jobs-data-casts-doubt-on-dollar-strength/
2023-09-05 09:53
XAU/USD is trapped between the 61.8% and 50% retracement levels. The fundamentals should move the rate during the week. Escaping from the current range should bring new opportunities. The gold price has dropped slightly in the last few hours and is now trading at $1,938. The US dollar has strengthened, which is likely to put pressure on gold prices. Gold prices were volatile in the days leading up to this, with sharp moves in both directions. This was due to mixed US economic data released on Friday. The Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending, and Final Manufacturing PMI all came in better than expected. However, the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings disappointed. Despite the mixed data, the US dollar index edged higher, which weighed on gold prices. The Swiss GDP also reported a 0.0% growth, below the 0.1% growth that was expected. Additionally, ECB President Lagarde’s remarks earlier in the day had a negative impact on gold prices. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep the cash rate unchanged tomorrow at 4.10%. However, the RBA Rate Statement is still likely to be a market mover. The Bank of Canada (BOC) is also expected to keep monetary policy unchanged in its September meeting. The key fundamentals for gold prices will be the ISM Services PMI and Australian GDP data, both due to be released on Wednesday. Gold price technical analysis: Bears dominating below $1940 Gold price hourly chart From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD failed to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1,948) and is now approaching the 50% retracement level (1,936). This level is providing support, and the yellow metal is currently trading between the 61.8% and 50% retracement levels. A breakout from this range would provide a clearer direction for the market. A break below the 50% level could signal a new bullish momentum, while a break above the 61.8% level would confirm further growth. The bias remains bullish as long as the XAU/USD stays above the 50% retracement level and the weekly pivot point of 1,935. However, only a valid breakout above the 61.8% level and a new higher high would activate further growth. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-remains-choppy-below-1940-on-a-lighter-day/
2023-09-05 09:52
Australia’s central bank held rates steady for a third consecutive month. The Australian dollar depreciated, reaching its lowest point in over a week. Market expectations for one last rate hike before year-end decreased from around 36% to just 30%. Today’s AUD/USD outlook is bearish as Australia’s central bank held rates steady for a third consecutive month. Moreover, it signaled a potential end to the tightening cycle as policymakers displayed greater control over prices. During the September policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained rates at 4.10%. Furthermore, it stated that recent data align with the goal of inflation returning to the 2–3 percent target range by late 2025. However, it emphasized the possibility of further tightening to rein inflation. Still, the central bank opted for a pause given underwhelming economic indicators, such as inflation, wages, and employment. As a result, the Australian dollar depreciated, reaching $0.6384, marking its lowest point in over a week. Meanwhile, market expectations for one last rate hike before year-end decreased from around 36% to just 30% during the session. Although most economists still anticipate one more hike by year-end, Lowe emphasized the need for continued monitoring of the global economy. He emphasized attention to uncertainties surrounding the Chinese economy, household spending, and the inflation and labor market outlook. Moreover, Lowe highlighted the significant rise in prices for various services and elevated rent inflation. Minutes from the August meeting revealed that the central bank now envisions a credible path to achieve the inflation target by 2025 at the current interest rate level. This implies a high threshold for further rate hikes. AUD/USD key events today Investors will continue absorbing statements from the RBA policy meeting as no other key economic releases are planned for the day. AUD/USD technical outlook: Price plummets, breaching key support levels. AUD/USD 4-hour chart On the charts, AUD/USD has fallen suddenly, breaking below the 0.6450 and the 0.6400 support levels. This steep decline has left the 30-SMA far above, indicating a strong bearish move. Moreover, the RSI is about to dip into the oversold region, showing solid bearish momentum. The price is now heading for the next support at 0.6350. If bears are still as strong at this level, the price will likely break below and continue the descent. However, if they are exhausted, the price might pause at 0.6350. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-outlook-aussie-dips-as-rba-holds-rates-for-3rd-month/
2023-09-01 09:44
The dollar reached a one-week low against the yen due to declining Treasury yields. Japan’s finance minister gave no clear indication of intervening in the market. The weaker yen attracts more foreign tourists, boosting Japan’s services sector. Today’s USD/JPY outlook is bearish. The dollar reached a one-week low against the yen due to declining Treasury yields. This occurred after a turbulent week in which weak economic data raised doubts about the prospects of additional Fed interest rate increases. Moreover, the dollar was set to end a six-week winning streak against major currencies. A crucial monthly US jobs report is approaching that will likely influence Federal Reserve policy in the short term. Elsewhere, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that markets should determine currency values, even though abrupt fluctuations are undesirable. However, he gave no clear indication of intervening in the market to support the weakening yen. Notably, Suzuki emphasized, “Currency values should mirror economic fundamentals. I am closely monitoring currency movements,” adhering to the established official stance. Some market participants expressed surprise at the lack of resolve to prevent the yen from dropping below 145 yen per dollar. A breach of this level in September triggered Japan’s first yen-buying intervention in 24 years. Meanwhile, speculation lingers in currency markets that Japanese authorities may shift their approach to the weak yen. They might focus on fiscal measures like maintaining a gasoline subsidy to mitigate the impact of price increases on consumers. Additionally, authorities contend that the weaker yen attracts more foreign tourists, boosting the services sector. Another possibility is that Japan may struggle to gain US approval for a dollar-selling intervention. USD/JPY key events today The important US nonfarm payroll day is finally here. Investors will get data on US employment numbers and the unemployment rate. Moreover, there will be an ISM Purchasing Managers Index report. USD/JPY technical outlook: Price shifts gears as bears take charge. USD/JPY 4-hour price chart On the technical side, USD/JPY has gone from bullish to bearish. This shift in bias came after the price broke below the 30-SMA and the RSI fell into bearish territory below 50. Moreover, the price fell below the 146.00 key support level. Currently, bears are heading for the next support at 145.00. A break below this level would further confirm the new bearish bias. However, if the level holds, bulls might return to retest the 146.00 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-falling-yields-trigger-bearish-momentum/
2023-08-30 10:10
The price seems heavy as DXY is still bullish. Taking out the 1.2620 activates more declines. The Jackson Hole Symposium could really shake the markets. The GBP/USD price continues to slide and has reached 1.2687 as of now. The pair experienced high volatility yesterday, following the release of disappointing economic data from both the UK and the US. However, the short-term outlook remains unclear. The UK and the US Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI both missed the market expectations, indicating a slowdown in economic activity. However, the US services sector still showed some resilience, as it remained in the expansion territory, unlike the UK, which slipped into contraction. This gave some support to the greenback, which also benefited from the better-than-expected US New Home Sales, which came in at 714K versus 705K forecasted. Today, the British pound faced another blow, as the UK CBI Realized Sales plunged to -44 points, much lower than the -25 points anticipated. This suggests a sharp decline in the retail sales volume in August. Later today, the market participants will be closely watching the US Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders and Jackson Hole Symposium for further clues on the economic recovery and the monetary policy stance. Positive US data could boost the USD further and put more pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Tomorrow, the Fed Chair Powell and the ECB President Lagarde will deliver their speeches at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which could have a significant impact on the market sentiment and volatility. Traders should be prepared for any surprises and adjust their positions accordingly. GBP/USD Price Technical Analysis: Rangebound GBP/USD price hourly chart The GBP/USD pair is stuck in a narrow range, as the market awaits more clarity on the economic and monetary outlook. The pair has been trading between the 1.2792 and 1.2620 levels for the past few days, showing no clear direction. However, some technical signals suggest that the pair could be ready for a bearish breakout soon. As shown on the H1 chart, the pair has broken below the minor ascending pitchfork, which was supporting the previous uptrend. This indicates a loss of bullish momentum and a possible reversal. The pair has bounced back from the range’s support at 1.2620, but failed to sustain above the broken lower median line (lml) of the pitchfork, which now acts as a resistance. This confirms the bearish scenario and signals a new wave of selling pressure. The immediate target for the bears is the 1.2620 level, which is the key support of the range. A decisive break below this level would confirm the bearish breakout and open the door for further declines. The next targets could be 1.2580 and 1.2530, which are previous swing lows. On the other hand, if the pair manages to stay above the 1.2620 level and forms a false breakout, it could indicate a lack of selling conviction and a possible rebound. In that case, the bulls could aim for the upper boundary of the range at 1.2792, which is also near the upper median line (uml) of the pitchfork. A break above this level would invalidate the bearish scenario and resume the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-price-dips-below-1-27-ahead-of-jackson-hole/
