2024-04-03 09:58

The US manufacturing PMI showed a surge in domestic demand. US job vacancies increased slightly in February as the labor market remained tight. There are fears of a possible intervention to support the yen. Peering into the USD/JPY forecast reveals promising upside prospects as the dollar holds near a four-month peak, weighing on the yen. However, fears of a possible Japanese intervention kept the USD/JPY pair from rising too much. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The dollar rallied this week after the US released better-than-expected economic data. The manufacturing PMI, out on Monday, showed a surge in domestic demand that led to an expansion in March. Meanwhile, US job vacancies increased slightly in February as the labor market remained tight. These reports highlighted the robust economy that has caused investors to scale back rate-cut expectations. The next big report will come on Friday and show the state of employment in the economy. A bigger-than-expected figure could further reduce rate-cut bets, boosting the dollar. Meanwhile, there was caution in the market amid fears of a possible intervention to support the yen. Consequently, this has created a strong barrier at $152. However, analysts believe any intervention will only cause a temporary decline in the USD/JPY pair. Notably, fundamentals support a weak yen as the yield gap between the US and Japan remains wide. Moreover, the Bank of Japan is not hurrying to raise interest rates, keeping this gap wide. Therefore, the yen will only strengthen significantly if there is a shift in the BoJ’s policy outlook. A more aggressive rate-hike cycle would strengthen the yen more than a one-time intervention. USD/JPY key events today US private employment change US ISM services PMI Fed Chair Powell speaks USD/JPY technical forecast: Thin trading precedes a strong move On the technical side, the USD/JPY price trades slightly above the 30-SMA, showing bulls are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI is above 50, favoring bullish momentum. However, the price has remained in a tight sideways move near the SMA, showing indecision. Moreover, it has made small-bodied candles, indicating that neither bears nor bulls are ready to commit to big moves. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- The price will only start trending when there is a big push above the 152.00 level or below the 30-SMA. Notably, the bearish RSI divergence and the bearish engulfing candle support a bearish breakout. If this happens, the price will likely fall to the 150.00 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/03/usd-jpy-forecast-yen-under-pressure-as-dollar-holds-firm/

2024-04-03 08:52

The UK released data showing expansion in the manufacturing sector in March. Investors are pricing a 60% chance of a BoE rate cut in June. Job openings in the US rose slightly in February. The GBP/USD price analysis reveals a slightly bullish picture, with the pound maintaining its position near recent highs following a surge triggered by encouraging economic data. Meanwhile, the dollar stands firm, buoyed by optimistic data that has tempered expectations for a Fed rate cut. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- On Tuesday, the UK released data showing expansion in the manufacturing sector in March. This is a sign that domestic demand is recovering. However, the news was not good for the Bank of England, which is still fighting to lower inflation. If demand in the economy spikes, it could further drive price increases, derailing progress on lowering inflation. Consequently, the BoE would hesitate to lower interest rates. At the same time, data revealed an increase in UK mortgage approvals in February. This increase came as mortgage rates fell amid expectations of lower interest rates. The GBP/USD pair fell in March as the Bank of England assumed a more dovish stance. The shift came as inflation in the UK eased faster than expected. When March began, the likelihood of a June BoE rate cut was 15%. However, at the moment, investors are pricing a 60% chance of a rate cut in June. Meanwhile, the dollar held firm after several positive economic reports from the US. Notably, manufacturing data revealed a significant improvement from contraction to expansion in March. On Tuesday, there was a slight increase in US job openings, pointing to a still-tight labor market. As a result, Fed rate cut expectations have dropped. GBP/USD key events today US ADP non-farm employment change US ISM services PMI US unemployment claims GBP/USD technical price analysis: Rebound faces solid trendline resistance On the charts, the GBP/USD price has recovered after pausing at the 1.2551 key support level. However, the downtrend remains intact as the price sits below the 30-SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI oscillator trades below 50, indicating strong bearish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Consequently, the price will likely reverse lower at the nearest resistance. The bulls face a resistance trendline that could push the price to the 1.2551 support level. A break below 1.2551 would confirm a continuation of the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/03/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-holds-elevated-after-positive-data/

2024-04-02 10:17

China reported an expansion in manufacturing activity after six months of contraction. The US reported the first expansion in manufacturing activity in over a year and a half. This week, markets will get a lot of data on the US labor market. The AUD/USD price analysis reveals a bullish narrative as the dollar relents after a strong rally. On Monday, the dollar strengthened after an upbeat manufacturing report reduced rate cut bets in the US. However, this report came after China’s positive manufacturing figures, which strengthened the Aussie and put a floor on excessive declines in the pair. On Sunday, China reported an expansion in manufacturing activity after six months of contraction. The purchasing managers’ index increased from 49.1 in February to 50.8 in March, beating forecasts. A value above 50 shows expansion. Consequently, it boosted the Australian dollar, which is a proxy for the yuan. Similarly, the US reported the first expansion in manufacturing activity in over a year and a half, boosting the dollar on Monday. Increased manufacturing activity reflects a robust economy despite higher interest rates. The Fed has kept interest rates high for some time to reduce demand in the economy which drives inflation. Therefore, if demand is still high, policymakers will hesitate to start lowering interest rates. Last week, data on consumer sentiment, GDP and home sales came in higher than expected, highlighting a robust economy. At the same time, inflation is on a downtrend. Therefore, there is more confidence that the US will avoid a recession caused by higher interest rates. This week, markets will get a lot of data on the US labor market. These figures might alter the rate-cut outlook. AUD/USD key events today US JOLTS job openings AUD/USD technical price analysis: Price escapes bullish channel, eyes new lows On the charts, the AUD/USD price has broken out of its bullish channel and might soon reach new lows. The bias is bearish as the price is making lower lows and highs below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI trades in bearish territory below 50. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Bears broke below the channel support before retesting it and making new lows. This confirmed the channel breakout. However, the price is currently rising to retest the 0.6520 resistance level and the SMA. Given the bearish bias, it might reverse at this resistance and fall to the 0.6450 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/02/aud-usd-price-analysis-dollar-pares-pmi-led-gains/

2024-04-02 09:20

A rise in oil prices on Tuesday led to a slight recovery in the Canadian dollar. Companies in Canada expect low demand over the next year. The data revealed a significant improvement in US manufacturing. The USD/CAD outlook reveals a muted bearish undertone on Tuesday as the loonie gains momentum due to surged oil prices. In the previous session, the Canadian dollar weakened after a survey supported the view that the Bank of Canada would start cutting rates in June. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened after upbeat manufacturing data. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- A rise in oil prices on Tuesday led to a slight recovery in the Canadian dollar. Oil prices rose as the demand outlook brightened after upbeat manufacturing data in the US and China. The Canadian dollar weakened on Monday after a poor BoC business outlook survey. According to the poll, companies expect low demand over the next year. This is a sign that Canada’s economy might weaken further. Moreover, inflation has eased, putting pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates. At the same time, data revealed a slight improvement in Canadian manufacturing activity in March. However, the sector remained in contraction, slightly below 50. On the other hand, data revealed a significant improvement in US manufacturing that reduced rate cut expectations. Notably, manufacturing expanded after a long period of contraction. The ISM manufacturing PMI rose from 47.8 in February to 50.3 in March, moving from contraction to expansion. Manufacturing accounts for nearly 10% of the US economy. Therefore, an expansion in the sector shows a resilient and well-performing economy, giving the Fed more room to hold higher interest rates. Consequently, rate cut expectations fell after the report, boosting the dollar. USD/CAD key events today US JOLTS job openings USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears eye break below 30-SMA On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is on the brink of breaking below the 30-SMA as bears reverse the recent bullish move. Initially, bears had pushed the price down to the 0.618 Fib retracement level. However, they failed to break below this level, allowing bulls to take over. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Although bears challenge the new move, the bullish bias remains intact. The RSI is above 50. Therefore, if the SMA holds as support, the price will retest the 1.3600 resistance level. However, if bears breach the SMA, the price will likely retest the 1.3515 support level. Moreover, the bias would shift to bearish. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/02/usd-cad-outlook-oil-rally-sparks-canadian-dollar-rebound/

2024-04-01 10:15

The core PCE price index showed inflation rising by a smaller 0.3%. Markets raised the chances of a Fed rate cut in June from 57% to 68.5%. The ECB’s Yannis Stournaras called for 100 bps in interest cuts this year. Today’s EUR/USD forecast gleams with bullish optimism as the dollar weakens, triggered by the anticipated decline in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. This decline fueled speculation of potential Fed rate cuts. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the core PCE price index showed inflation rising by 0.3%, a decline from the previous reading of 0.5%. As a result, markets raised the chances of a rate cut in June from 57% to 68.5%. At the same time, market participants expect 75 bps in interest rate cuts this year. After the report, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that inflation was similar to what the central bank wanted to see. From here, investors will now focus on the jobs report for March. A resilient economy will likely see the Fed maintain its current outlook on rate cuts. On the other hand, if jobs miss forecasts, there might be more pressure to cut rates, leading to an increase in rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, ECB’s Yannis Stournaras called for 100 bps in interest cuts this year in the Eurozone. This would translate to four rate cuts, putting the ECB in a more dovish position than the Fed. Moreover, he noted that the ECB did not have to wait for the Fed to start cutting rates. A more dovish ECB would lead to a decline in EUR/USD. Still, markets expect the Fed and the ECB to start cutting interest rates in June. EUR/USD key events today US ISM Manufacturing PMI EUR/USD technical forecast: Price finds respite, halts decline at 1.0775 support On the technical side, the EUR/USD decline has paused at the 1.0775 support level. The price sits below the 30-SMA, making the bias bearish. At the same time, the RSI trades in bearish territory below 50. The price has been in a downtrend since it found solid resistance at the 1.0950 key level. Moreover, it has traded in a bearish channel. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- However, bears have grown weaker despite making lower lows. The RSI has made a bullish divergence that could soon lead to a reversal. Bulls will take over when the price breaks above the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/01/eur-usd-forecast-dollar-loses-ground-as-us-core-pce-falls/

2024-04-01 10:10

Japanese authorities got concerned when the yen hit a 34-year low on Wednesday. Suzuki repeated his warning that they would respond to any excessive currency moves. The dollar was on the back foot on Monday as Fed rate-cut bets increased. The USD/JPY outlook is slightly bearish as the yen showcases a modest recovery amid the persistent drumbeat of Japanese warnings to curb currency depreciation. At the same time, the yen found some relief as the dollar lost ground due to an increase in Fed rate-cut bets. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Investors have been cautious while trading USD/JPY, fearing a possible intervention since last week. Japanese authorities got concerned when the yen hit a 34-year low on Wednesday. As a result, they made it clear that they would take the necessary measures to curb further yen declines. The most recent intervention happened in 2022, when the pair hit the $152 mark, leading to a decline in USD/JPY. Notably, the currency pulled back on Monday when Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki repeated his warning that they would respond to any excessive currency moves. Meanwhile, the dollar was on the back foot on Monday as Fed rate-cut bets increased after Friday’s inflation report. The core PCE price index revealed a drop in inflation from 0.5% to 0.3%. Powell noted that the reading supported their view that inflation was on a downtrend. Consequently, traders increased the likelihood that the central bank will cut interest rates in June to 68.5%. The next major report is this month’s nonfarm payrolls. USD/JPY key events today US ISM Manufacturing PMI USD/JPY technical outlook: Bears fight for control below the 30-SMA On the charts, the USD/JPY price is trading in a tight range, slightly below the 30-SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI is consolidating slightly above the pivotal 50 level. This is a sign that bears and bulls are fighting for control at this level. This comes after the previous bullish trend paused at the 152.00 resistance level. –Are you interested to learn more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the pause revealed weakness in bulls, as they could no longer make big swings above the SMA. At the same time, the RSI made a bearish divergence, highlighting the fading bullish momentum. Moreover, the price made a bearish, engulfing candle. Consequently, there is a bigger chance that bears will win the current battle. If this happens, the price will likely fall to retest the 150.00 key level and 0.382 Fib retracement level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/04/01/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-edges-up-as-japans-warnings-echo/