2024-01-19 10:24

XAU/USD could resume its growth if it stays above the sliding line (sl). A new higher high activates further growth. The US and the Canadian figures could change the sentiment. The gold price is trading at $2,028 at the time of writing. The metal seems determined to extend its growth as the US dollar looks exhausted. The USD’s depreciation should help the XAU/USD to hit new highs. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The greenback showed overbought signs in the short term even if the US reported positive economic data in the last days. Yesterday, the Unemployment Claims, Building Permits, and Housing Starts came in better than expected, while the retail sales data beat expectations on Tuesday. Today, the price of gold also targets new highs after the United Kingdom Retail Sales reported a 3.2% drop versus the 0.5% drop estimated and after the 1.4% growth in the previous reporting period. Still, I believe only the US and Canadian economic data should have a big impact today and could change the sentiment. The Canadian Retail Sales indicator may report a 0.0% growth, while the Core Retail Sales could announce a 0.1% growth. Furthermore, the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment could jump from 69.7 to 69.8 points, while Existing Home Sales is expected at 3.83M, above 3.82M in the previous reporting period. Technically, the XAU/USD reached the former high of $2,029, and it is trying to take it out. The upside pressure is high after jumping and stabilizing above the S1 (2,020) and most importantly, beyond the ascending pitchfork’s inside sliding line (sl). –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The bias is bullish as long as it stays above this broken dynamic resistance. Still, only a new higher high, jumping and closing above $2,032 confirms an upside continuation. The weekly pivot point of $2,041 and the median line (ml) are upside targets. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/19/gold-price-challenging-2029-resistance-focus-on-us-data/

2024-01-19 08:54

Japan’s core inflation marked the second consecutive month of a slowing trend. The Bank of Japan will likely maintain ultra-low interest rates at next week’s meeting. The dollar geared up for its second consecutive weekly gain. Friday unveils a bullish USD/JPY outlook as the yen softens amid weaker inflation figures. Despite Japan’s core inflation holding above the 2% central bank target in December, it marked the second consecutive month of a slowing trend. This further supports the expectation that the Bank of Japan will maintain its extensive monetary stimulus. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the data increases the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will maintain ultra-low interest rates at next week’s meeting. Rabobank strategist Jane Foley remarked, “The market’s realization that rate hikes won’t be likely for the BOJ in the coming months and the reassessment of Fed rate cuts is already evident in the upward movement of the dollar/yen.” However, analysts suggest that there is still steady service price increases. Moreover, there is a growing likelihood of substantial wage hikes. Therefore, these will likely sustain market expectations of a shift to rate hikes for the BoJ. Meanwhile, the dollar geared up for its second consecutive weekly gain. This is due to signs of US economic resilience and a cautious stance on rate cuts. Traders reduced expectations of fast and big rate cuts in the US. Notably, the dollar index surged by 0.9% for the week. This made the yen the most significant loser, down 5% for the year. Data and a deadly earthquake in Japan have eroded confidence in the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising rates. USD/JPY key events today US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment USD/JPY technical outlook: Bullish strength wanes with bearish divergence above 148.25 On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 148.25 key resistance level and is on its way to making a new high. However, the RSI is above 70, indicating an overbought market. Therefore, further upside movement might be limited. Moreover, the RSI already shows signs that bulls are weaker, above 148.25, as it has made a slight bearish divergence. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- If, indeed, bulls are weaker, then the price will struggle to reach the next resistance level at 150.02. At the same time, it might pull back to retest the 30-SMA before getting to the 150.02 resistance. Still, the bullish trend will continue if the price stays above the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/19/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-weakens-as-japans-inflation-figures-ease/

2024-01-18 11:58

The EUR/USD maintains a bearish bias if it stays below the downtrend line. A new lower low activates more declines. The US economic figures should bring more action today. The EUR/USD price bounced back within the broad bearish trend. The US dollar’s minor correction weakened the greenback in the short term. The pair is trading at 1.0889 at the time of writing, far above yesterday’s low of 1.0844. After the last sell-off, a minor rebound was expected before extending its downward movement. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Fundamentally, the US Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, Import Prices, and Industrial Production came in better than expected in the last trading session. Only the Capacity Utilization Rate came in worse than expected. Today, the Eurozone Current Account was reported at 24.6B compared to the 30.9B expected versus the 32.3B in the previous reporting period. The US session should bring some volatility as the US is to release important economic data. The Unemployment Claims is expected at 206K above 202K in the previous reporting period, Building Permits could remain steady at 1.47M, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index may jump to -6.6 points from -10.5 points, while the Housing Starts indicator could drop to 1.43M. Technically, the EUR/USD price extended its downward movement after escaping from the minor up channel. This represented a downside continuation formation. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The pair has also taken out the uptrend line, activating more declines. It has failed to stay below the weekly S2 of 1.0863, signaling exhausted sellers. The bias remains bearish as long as it stays below the downtrend line. As you can see on the hourly chart, the rebound was stopped by the weekly S1 of 1.0905 before dropping again. Still, only a new lower low activates more declines. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/18/eur-usd-price-rejected-by-1-09-level-amid-risk-off/

2024-01-18 10:31

Robust US retail sales data reduced bets on a Fed interest rate cut in March. The likelihood of a rate cut in March has reduced to 61% from 65.1% on Tuesday. Investors have steadily reduced bets on a hawkish Bank of Japan. Thursday’s USD/JPY forecast maintains its optimistic stance, staying bullish despite a minor retreat. The dollar, lingering near a one-month high against major peers, draws strength from robust US retail sales data, which reduced expectations for a March Fed cut. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the likelihood of a rate cut in March has reduced to 61% from 65.1% on Tuesday, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Notably, the dollar reached 148.525 yen overnight, a level not seen since the end of November. Investors steadily reduced bets on a hawkish Bank of Japan, partly influenced by the recent New Year’s Day quake in central Japan. The BOJ will have its policy meeting next week on Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, Shoki Omori, Chief Japan Desk Strategist at Mizuho Securities, said that the dollar yen could fluctuate between 145 and 150 in the near term. This range was last seen in mid-November. Furthermore, if the BOJ maintains its dovish stance next week and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is hawkish at the US central bank’s policy meeting this month, Omori suggested the dollar might rise above 150 yen by the start of February. Additionally, he said that Japanese officials could start to come in and verbally intervene at any time now” to stop the yen’s decline. USD/JPY key events today US Initial Jobless Claims USD/JPY technical forecast: Price hits resistance wall at 148.25 On the charts, the USD/JPY price has hit a ceiling at the 148.25 key resistance level and is retreating. However, the bullish bias is strong as the indicators on the chart point to a robust bullish trend. Notably, the price has respected the 30-SMA as support, bouncing higher every time to make a new high. Moreover, the RSI, which has stayed above 50 since the bulls took over, is currently overbought. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The price has made a series of swing highs and swing lows. The most recent swing high has paused at 148.25. Therefore, the next move will likely be a swing low to retest the 30-SMA support. From there, bulls might target the 150.02 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/18/usd-jpy-forecast-robust-us-sales-push-dollar-to-1-month-top/

2024-01-18 09:25

Australian employment experienced a sharp decline in December. The US reported robust retail sales in December. Traders have reduced the likelihood of a first Fed rate cut by March to 61%. The AUD/USD outlook shows a hint of bearish momentum, with the Australian dollar dipping by as much as 0.04% due to lower-than-expected December employment data. As a result, there is speculation that interest rates in Australia might have peaked. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- City Index’s senior market analyst, Matt Simpson, noted, “There’s some technical support around $0.6520, which bears are hesitant to breach.” However, he added, “Yet the jobs report doesn’t provide any meaningful reason to be long AUD,” Consequently, the next move depends on Fed expectations and the US dollar. Notably, Australian employment experienced a sharp decline in December. Meanwhile, the jobless rate remained constant due to a decrease in people actively seeking employment. There was a significant drop of 65,100 in net employment for December compared to the revised surge of 72,600 in November. Moreover, this decline contrasted with market expectations of an increase of approximately 17,600. Elsewhere, the US released data on retail sales showing an unexpected surge. The robust US retail sales data reduced expectations that the Fed would lower interest rates as soon as March. Traders have reduced the likelihood of a March rate cut to 61%, down from 65.1% on Tuesday. At the same time, Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller, are pushing back against expectations of quick policy easing. However, the market still expects 150 basis points of cuts by the end of the year. AUD/USD key events today US unemployment claims AUD/USD technical outlook: 0.6550 emerges as a formidable barrier On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has found support at the 0.6550 key level after a sharp decline. Although there has been a small recovery, the bias remains bearish as the price trades well below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI is in the oversold region. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- However, since the price made such a big swing from the 30-SMA, it might pause or pull back to retest the SMA. Moreover, price action near the 0.6550 key level supports a reversal. The price has made candlesticks with long bottom wicks below 0.6550. This shows that bears have been rejected below this key level. Still, a push below this support would lead to a retest of the 0.6500 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/18/aud-usd-outlook-aussie-dips-after-employment-drop/

2024-01-16 10:17

A new higher high validates further growth. The US data should have a big impact during the week. The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the 50% Fibonacci line. The USD/JPY price rallied in the short term, trading at 146.45 above the former high of 146.41. The bias is bullish as the US dollar soared amid poor risk appetite. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The Yen depreciated a little even though the Japanese PPI rose by 0.0% compared to the 0.3% drop estimated. Later, the US and the Canadian data should have a big impact on all markets. The Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at -4.9 points versus -14.5 points in the previous reporting period. Furthermore, the Canadian CPI m/m may announce a 0.3% drop after a 0.1% growth in the previous reporting period. Positive US data helps the greenback to dominate the currency market. Tomorrow, the US will release the Retail Sales indicator which is expected to report a 0.4% growth, and the Core Retail Sales data. The US figures should move the rate, so the fundamentals could be decisive during the week. Technically, the USD/JPY price edged higher after escaping from the flag pattern. You knew from my previous analysis that the bias is bullish as long as it stays above the downside 50% Fibonacci line of the ascending pitchfork. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Now, the pair has passed again above the median line (ml) and it challenges the former high of 146.41. This stands as a static resistance, so it remains to see if the price validates its breakout, confirming a potential upside continuation. The 146.58 historical level represents a static upside obstacle as well. So, taking out this resistance, making a new higher high validates more gains ahead. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/01/16/usd-jpy-price-challenges-146-5-as-risk-remains-sour/