Putin suggests changes to US ceasefire idea for Ukraine IEA says supply to exceed demand by 600,000 bpd in 2025 SINGAPORE, March 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices rebounded on Friday to recover some of their losses of more than 1% in the previous session, partly due to the diminishing prospects of a quick end to the Ukraine war that could bring back more Russian energy supplies. Brent crude futures rose 64 cents, or 0.9%, to $70.52 a barrel by 0748 GMT after settling 1.5% lower in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $67.26 a barrel, up 71 cents, or 1.1%, after closing down 1.7% on Thursday. Sign up here. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Moscow supported a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine in principle, but sought a number of clarifications and conditions that appeared to rule out a quick end to the fighting. "Russia's tepid support of a 30-day ceasefire proposal with Ukraine has reduced confidence around a ceasefire in the short term," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said. "The feeling is that U.S. won't lift sanctions until they agree a ceasefire." Raising pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to a peace agreement over Ukraine, the Trump administration said on Thursday that a license allowing energy transactions with Russian financial institutions expired this week. Chinese state firms are also curbing Russian oil imports on sanctions risks, sources told Reuters. However, the global trade war that has roiled financial markets and raised recession fears is escalating with U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday threatening to slap a 200% tariff on wine, cognac and other alcohol imports from Europe. The International Energy Agency warned on Thursday that global oil supply could exceed demand by around 600,000 barrels per day this year, due to growth led by the United States and weaker than expected global demand. "The macroeconomic conditions that underpin our oil demand projections deteriorated over the past month as trade tensions escalated between the U.S. and several other countries," the IEA said, prompting it to revise down its demand growth estimates for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. The Trump-driven trade war woes and demand worries dented oil prices on the previous day, though the possibility of less Russian oil in the global markets in the near term provided some cushion during Friday's trade. "Most price projections were to the downside in the short term, but geopolitical tension could still cause supply disruptions," ANZ analysts said in a note to clients. On Friday, China and Russia stood by Iran after the United States demanded nuclear talks with Tehran, with senior Chinese and Russian diplomats saying dialogue should only resume based on "mutual respect" and all sanctions ought to be lifted. This comes a day after Washington stepped up sanctions, including on Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-bounces-ukraine-ceasefire-deal-remains-elusive-2025-03-14/

KYIV, March 14 (Reuters) - Ukrainian drones struck gas compressor stations in Russia's Tambov and Saratov regions, a source in Ukraine's SBU security service told Reuters on Friday. Video from the site showed the drones striking the industrial equipment and powerful explosions, according to the source. Sign up here. The Ukrainian drones also struck a field depot for S-300/S-400 missiles in Russia's Belgorod region, detonating ammunition, the source added. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drones-struck-two-russian-gas-compressor-stations-sbu-official-tells-2025-03-14/

LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - Investors pulled $2.8 billion from stock funds in the week to Wednesday in the biggest weekly outflow this year, Bank of America said on Friday, in a sign of a souring of the mood in global financial markets. The U.S. S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab stock index has now fallen more than 10% from its recent high, putting it into correction territory, as U.S. President Donald Trump's stop-start trade wars sow uncertainty among companies and investors. Sign up here. U.S. government bond funds received the biggest weekly inflow since August at $6.4 billion, BofA said in its weekly note tracking flows in and out of world markets citing figures from data provider EPFR. BofA said this was a sign of a "risk-off" mood. Investors pulled $2.8 billion from U.S. stock funds in particular but put $5 billion into European equities. Real estate stocks suffered the biggest outflow since May 2022 at $1.2 billion, while high yield bond funds saw the biggest outflow in 12 weeks at $2.3 billion. However, BofA's analysts said the move out of stocks had yet to unwind much of the $156 billion of inflows into global equity funds so far this year. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/stocks-suffer-biggest-weekly-outflow-this-year-risk-off-move-bofa-says-2025-03-14/

March 14 (Reuters) - Consumer prices in France were up 0.9% year-on-year in February, statistics office INSEE said on Friday, in line with analysts' expectations and the preliminary reading. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected an EU-harmonised inflation figure of 0.9% on average in February. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/french-consumer-inflation-confirmed-09-yy-february-2025-03-14/

LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - Donald Trump's second presidency is having a dramatic impact on currencies around the world, though not in the way investors anticipated just a few months ago. The dollar has weakened this year against all other developed market currencies, except Canada's, on concern that tariff uncertainty is harming the U.S. economy. Sign up here. "Tariffs, generally speaking, tend to be good for the dollar," said Barclays FX strategist Lefteris Farmakis. "But when they are applied against very close trading partners, they can harm confidence in the U.S." U.S. recession risks are growing and investors also see reasons to buy the likes of the euro, Swedish crown and Japanese yen in their own right. Here's a look at some of stand-out movers. 1/ EURO TRANSFORMED Germany's historic proposal to ramp up defence and infrastructure spending have catapulted the euro higher. It posted its biggest weekly gain versus the dollar since 2009 last week and is set for its best quarter since 2022, with a 5% rise. At around $1.09 , the euro is at its highest since the November 5 U.S. election. BofA sees further gains to $1.15 by end-2025. The euro has also risen against sterling and the Swiss franc. , The European Central Bank approaching the end of its easing cycle and Europe's increased defence spending has changed the outlook for the euro in a fundamental way, said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe Generale, noting U.S. tariffs remained a risk to euro gains. 2/ GO THE YEN Another big gainer has been the yen, some 6% stronger against the dollar so far this year thanks to higher Japanese rates and safe-haven flows during turbulent times. "If you want to hedge against the risk of slowdown in the U.S. you go to Japan because of the risks for lower U.S. Treasury yields," said Barclay's Farmakis. The yen is particularly sensitive to changes in the gap between U.S. and Japanese borrowing costs. Yen-positive developments at home meanwhile include companies meeting union demands for substantial wage increases. That could push the Bank of Japan to accelerate rate hikes, lifting the yen's appeal after four straight years of declines. Speculators have mounted their biggest ever wager that the Japanese yen will continue to rise. 3/ UNFRIENDLY NEIGHBOUR Pressure on currencies in Canada and Mexico, the two largest U.S. trading partners, has abated but is unlikely to disappear soon , . ING says current trading levels suggest a 2% risk premium is priced into the Canadian dollar, half the peak risk premium seen in early Feb when it hit 22-year lows versus the greenback. Mexico's peso has appreciated 5% from three-year lows hit last month against the dollar. At around 20.10 per dollar, the peso has moved back towards pre-U.S. election levels. Trump's suspension of 25% tariffs imposed on most goods from Canada and Mexico are positive. But universal steel and aluminium tariffs took effect Wednesday, drawing retaliation from Canada - the biggest foreign supplier of steel and aluminium to the U.S. - and encouraging another Bank of Canada rate cut. No surprise that implied volatility in Canada's dollar remains elevated . 4/ NOT SO FRAGILE CHINA China's yuan was expected to suffer more than most currencies from Trump's policies. Some expected Beijing would allow its closely-managed currency to weaken to mitigate the impact of tariffs, as it did during Trump's first presidency, particularly in the trade war of 2018 and 2019. China has been hit by more tariffs than most, but the yuan, on and offshore, has strengthened this year to trade around 7.25 yuan per dollar. , BofA said one reason Chinese authorities haven't encouraged a weaker exchange rate against the dollar is that other emerging Asian currencies have strengthened more than the yuan, supporting Chinese exporters. "China is still achieving a relative trade weighted depreciation of the yuan against its key trading partners, despite modest yuan appreciation against the dollar," it said. 5/ CROWNED IN GLORY One currency that has surged against the dollar, and perhaps gone under the radar, is Sweden's crown. It has strengthened 9% to near 10 crowns per dollar, the firmest since late 2023, and has even held its own against a resurgent euro. , A strong performance for European shares, Ukraine-Russia ceasefire hopes and improved Swedish economic prospects explain the outperformance, analysts said. In addition to its sensitivity to European stocks, the crown is also benefiting from a surge in defence stocks. As a share of gross domestic product, Sweden is overrepresented among European defence stocks, notes Societe Generale. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/big-currency-winners-2025-so-far-do-not-include-dollar-2025-03-14/

The EUR/USD outlook shows a bearish sentiment shift amid escalating trade tensions. The euro extended its retreat from the 5-month peak hit earlier in the week. The US threatened a 200% tariff on alcohol imports from the Eurozone. The EUR/USD outlook shows a bearish sentiment shift amid escalating trade tensions between the US and the Eurozone. At the same time, hopes of a ceasefire deal to end the Ukraine war dimmed slightly after Russia called for changes to the US proposal. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The euro dropped on Friday, extending its retreat from the 5-month peak hit earlier in the week. The steel and aluminum tariff that took effect on Wednesday has ignited a growing trade conflict with the US and the Eurozone, threatening tariffs on other imports like alcohol. Wednesday’s tariff prompted the Eurozone to threaten tariffs on American Whiskey. The US responded by threatening a 200% tariff on alcohol imports from the Eurozone, including wine. Such an outcome would hurt both economies by reducing trade. The ongoing trade wars between the US and its trading partners have pushed investors to safe-haven assets. There is a growing panic that the US economy will tip into a recession. Moreover, the outlook for the global economy is clouded. Elsewhere, data on Thursday revealed softer-than-expected US wholesale inflation. This followed a downbeat consumer inflation report, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts. However, with tariff uncertainty, the US Central Bank might remain cautious. EUR/USD key events today Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment Preliminary UoM inflation expectations EUR/USD technical outlook: SMA break clears path to 1.0701 support On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA, indicating a bearish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, indicating stronger bearish momentum. This shift follows a bearish RSI divergence that pointed to weak bullish momentum. As a result, the previous uptrend failed to go beyond the 1.0901 resistance level. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The SMA break has cleared the path for EUR/USD to retest the 1.0701 support level. Despite the sentiment shift, bulls might still return to the market. However, the price might need a deeper correction before this happens. If bulls resume the uptrend, the price will likely reach the 1.1001 resistance. On the other hand, if bears take over, the price will start making lower highs and lows, indicating a new bearish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/14/eur-usd-outlook-eu-us-trade-tension-triggers-uncertainty/

Jewellers not keen on building high-cost inventory - dealer Domestic gold prices in India hit record high of 87,886 rupees China prices at $1 discount and $18 premium March 14 (Reuters) - Gold discounts in India widened this week to their highest point in nearly eight months, as a surge in prices to a record high dampened demand, while customers in other key hubs also remained on the sidelines. "Jewellers all over are seeing fewer customers. Demand's taken a big hit because of rising prices," said a Chennai-based bullion dealer. Sign up here. Domestic gold prices hit a record high of 87,886 rupees per 10 grams on Thursday. Indian dealers this week offered a discount of up to $39 an ounce over official domestic prices, including 6% import and 3% sales levies, up from a discount of $10 to $21 last week. "Jewellers are not keen on building high-cost inventory at the end of the financial year, as they are busy closing accounts," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a bullion-importing bank. India's financial year runs from April until March 31. India's gold imports are set to tumble 85% in February from year-ago levels, reaching their lowest levels in 20 years, as demand is dampened by record-high bullion prices. In China, the world's largest consumer, gold traded at a discount of $1 to an $18 premium over spot prices . Meanwhile, dealers in Hong Kong charged premiums ranging from par to $2 per ounce . "China's market is wavering between a discount and a premium," Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper said in a note. "The physical market has provided a weaker footing for gold ... China's markets have slowed amid high prices, underscoring the macro drivers." In Japan, bullion was sold between a discount of $3 and a premium of $0.5, a trader said. "The market has been choppy and volatile due to Trump's policies, and it seems investors stay on the sidelines till the trend is clear," said a Japanese trader. In Singapore, gold traded between a $0.50 discount and a $3 premium, a trader said. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/asia-gold-discounts-india-hit-8-month-high-record-prices-weigh-demand-2025-03-14/

March 14 - The European Union’s efforts to limit Russia’s war chest will likely continue to intensify despite news of a potential ceasefire with Ukraine, as the EU must now shoulder more responsibility for its own security given the rupture in the transatlantic alliance. Yet the bloc continues to overlook one of the Kremlin’s critical revenue channels: fertilisers. Russian fertiliser exports to the EU surged by over 33% in 2024 alone, reaching 6.2 million tonnes worth over €2.2 billion. This trade, exempt from sanctions, generated an estimated €550 million in tax revenue for the Russian state. Poland, by far the biggest buyer of Russian fertilizers, saw purchases more than double in 2024. Sign up here. The war in Ukraine disrupted global energy markets, which significantly reduced the EU’s domestic fertilizer production. The price of natural gas, the main input commodity for the production of fertilizers, surged to record high levels following the onset of the conflict, and at one point, roughly 70% of ammonia production capacity in Europe was either shut down or idled. Russian producers have successfully tapped this supply gap to expand sales to the most vulnerable markets. While the EU has diminished Russian natural gas imports from 40% of the total in 2021 to around 10% after the halt in the Ukrainian gas transit at the end of 2024, Russia has taken advantage of its enormous gas production surpluses to successfully replace part of the gas export revenues with fertilisers sales. This increase in Russian fertilizer sales is not confined to Europe. Globally, Russian companies have capitalised on post-invasion price volatility by offering fertilisers at steep discounts of over 20%, enabling them to capture greater market share. Nowhere is this more evident than in Latin America , opens new tab, where agricultural exports are a core economic driver. Brazil has become the world’s largest market for Russian fertilisers, accounting for 25% of Moscow’s global sales (around $4 billion per year). Russia’s fertiliser strategy appears to mirror its historical use of natural gas exports: it leverages supply dependence to secure strategic influence. By embedding itself in global food production chains, Moscow has gained new geopolitical leverage, particularly in regions like Latin America and South Asia that are highly exposed to agricultural shocks. Any future disruption in Russian fertiliser exports, whether from sanctions or market shifts, could have severe implications not just for regional economies, but for global food prices. STRATEGIC LOOPHOLE The fertilizer dependence goes two ways, though. The Russian fertilizer industry is heavily reliant on exports, with 64% of its production sold abroad. However, the shifting dynamics of the global fertiliser market have opened a strategic loophole allowing several large Russian companies to profit by effectively controlling the fertilizer trade with the European Union. These leading Russian producers – Uralchem, Acron Group and EuroChem – are consequently flush with cash and expanding aggressively. EuroChem recently opened a $1 billion fertiliser plant in Brazil, while Uralchem is building major new production facilities in Russia’s Perm region. The European fertiliser industry, meanwhile, continues to struggle. Domestic producers face higher labour costs, stricter environmental regulations, and weaker policy support. To level the playing field, European manufacturers have called for a more forceful response. The industry organization Fertilisers Europe has proposed an immediate tariff floor of 30%, which would increase every six months. But some European producers argue that a response now may be too late as Russia has already seized nearly a third of the EU’s fertiliser import market, up from just 17% in 2022. This has placed domestic producers at a competitive disadvantage and deepened the bloc’s exposure to geopolitical risk. The EU is also pursuing structural change. The European Commission is reviewing regulatory constraints under its Nitrates Directive , opens new tab to enable greater use of manure-based fertilisers while addressing environmental concerns such as nitrogen runoff. However, such transitions will take time, and Russian producers’ grip on the market is continuing to expand now. The fertiliser trade has become a critical blind spot in Europe’s sanctions regime. But limiting Russian fertiliser revenues could become a geopolitical necessity now that the bloc can no longer depend on U.S. support in any efforts to pressure Moscow. Inaction may no longer be an option. (The views expressed here are those of Martin Vladimirov, the Director of the Geoeconomics Program of the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD)) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kremlins-fertilizer-cash-stream-is-blind-spot-eu-sanctions-vladimirov-2025-03-14/

(Reuters) - Sterling lost some ground against the dollar on Friday after data showed British economic output contracted unexpectedly in January compared with December. The British pound was last down 0.19% on the day at $1.2929, though remains slightly higher on the week. Sign up here. British gross domestic product contracted by 0.1% in January versus December. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast a monthly expansion of 0.1%. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-edges-lower-after-uk-economy-unexpectedly-contracts-january-2025-03-14/

Rising AI adoption broadens the opportunity set in an uncertain world The start of 2025 has brought the acceleration of major changes in the global landscape. DeepSeek’s breakthrough artificial intelligence (AI) model is not only challenging the established dominance of the US but also drawing everyone’s attention to the potential for mass AI adoption. We now see AI as the key to unlocking opportunities across markets and sectors. Meanwhile, tariffs and frictions are shaking up trade and raising inflation concerns, and international relations and policies are becoming less predictable. However, these unfavourable forces are occurring when the global economy is in good health, interest rates are falling in most developed markets, and many corporates are cash-rich. Economists are projecting a respectable GDP growth rate of around 3% for the global economy and 2.3% for the US. While that should offer strong protection against any surprises, we think diversification is as important as ever in the current environment. What does this mean for investors? The underperformance of US equities year-to-date underlines the need for a broader opportunity set. There are two main reasons for this: first, the run-up in equity valuations driven by the Magnificent 7 stocks is pushing investors to look for other options. Second, accelerating AI adoption will create a rush to invest in software and automation across all industries. Governments, too, recognise the need to invest in electrification and infrastructure to grow strategically important industries to stay competitive and ensure security in all of its aspects, including defence and cybersecurity, as well as access to electricity and resources. This trend is happening around the world. So, while the US remains fundamentally resilient, US exceptionalism is waning, and we’re broadening geographically into Asia, where we continue to favour India, Singapore and Japan, as their domestic drivers remain intact. During Q1 2025, we also added China and the UAE to our preferred list. The story of DeepSeek and the enthusiasm over technological innovation has put previously unloved Chinese tech stocks back in the spotlight. Government support is a shared driver for both China and the UAE, leading to more investment in technology-related capex, and the UAE is further supported by its strong structural drivers and the boom in its housing and tourism sectors. Naturally, technology is a direct beneficiary, but the power of technological innovation, intertwined with supporting policies and structural tailwinds, points to opportunities elsewhere too, across IT, Communications, Financials, Industrials and Healthcare. Outside of the Magnificent 7 stocks in the US, we expect earnings growth momentum in the Forgotten 493 companies in the S&P 500 to be increasingly compelling, and adopt a similar strategy in Asia and Europe to capture broadening earnings growth. A need to diversify through multi-asset strategies and non-traditional assets We think geographical and sector diversification can best be delivered through multi-asset portfolios as we aim to exploit structural and tactical opportunities amid rising uncertainty. As the Fed is expected to cut rates further in the second half of 2025, US Treasuries and quality bonds offer attractive returns at their current yield levels. While we lengthened bond durations in Q1 to lock in attractive yields for longer, we’re also leveraging flexible duration strategies to capture any opportunity that arises. In fact, the market dynamics we see in today’s fast-moving world have prompted us to look for an even higher level of diversification by adding renewables, infrastructure and gold as and when appropriate. To go deeper into some of our investment themes, we’ve included an article about the enthusiasm of AI and its implications, and the role of multi-asset strategies in retirement planning – both from our in-house experts. We hope these insights, together with our four investment themes for Q2, will guide your investment journey in the months ahead. https://www.hsbc.com.my/wealth/insights/market-outlook/investment-outlook/rising-ai-adoption-broadens-the-opportunity-set-in-an-uncertain-world/