2023-12-14 09:48

EUR/USD attracts some buyers near 1.0900, the two-week high. The pair holds above the key 100-hour EMA with the overbought RSI condition. The first resistance level will emerge at 1.0960; 1.0852 acts as an initial support level for the pair. (FXStreet) USD/CHF rebounds after touching a one-and-half-week trough earlier this Thursday. The SNB decides to maintain the status quo and does little to provide any impetus. Traders look to the US Retail Sales for a fresh impetus amid a modest USD recovery. (FXStreet) NZD/USD extends its gains as the US Dollar loses ground on subdued Treasury yields. Technical indicators suggest revisiting a five-month high at 0.6249 and the major resistance at 0.6250. A firm break below the 0.6200 level could lead the pair to navigate the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6165. (FXStreet) The Japanese Yen rallies to a fresh multi-month peak against the USD on Thursday. Hopes for a BoJ pivotl boost the JPY and drag USD/JPY closer to sub-141.00 levels. The USD stalls the post-FOMC downfall and lends support amid the risk-on mood. (FXStreet) GBP/USD trades in positive territory for the fourth consecutive day above the 1.2600 mark. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the interest rates steady at the target range of 5.25%-5.5% in its December meeting. The UK’s economy contracted 0.3% MoM in October vs. 0.2% expansion prior, below the market expectation. Investors will closely watch the BoE interest rate decision ahead of US Retail Sales. (FXStreet) Australian Dollar surges to four-month highs as US Dollar loses ground on dovish Fed outlook. Australia’s Consumer Expectations reduced to 4.5% and Employment Change rose substantially to 61.5K. Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 5.5% and investors expect three rate cuts for 2024. (FXStreet) USD/CAD extends its losses on the subdued US Dollar after the dovish Fed decision. A drop below the 1.3400 psychological level could push the pair toward August's low of 1.3378. A firm break above 1.3500 could lead to exploring the resistance region around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3565. (FXStreet) EUR/JPY drops to the lowest level since October, near 154.35. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold the rate steady at 4.0% on Thursday. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) quarterly Tankan survey revealed that business confidence in Japan’s large manufacturers improved for the third straight quarter. Market players will closely watch the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday. (FXStreet) GBP/JPY drifts lower for the third straight day and dives to over a two-month low. The JPY rallies amid hopes for a hawkish BoJ pivot and exerts heavy pressure. The downfall stalls ahead of the 200-day SMA as traders look to the BoE meeting. (FXStreet) USD/MXN halts its losing streak amid subdued Greenback. Banxico is expected to hold the interest rate at the current level of 11.25%. US Dollar weakens on the Fed's accommodative monetary policy stance in 2024. (FXStreet) Indian Rupee holds positive ground on the decline of US Dollar. Analysts anticipate the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to hold rates into next year. Indian WPI inflation came in at 0.26% vs. -0.52% prior, better than the expectation of 0.08%. (FXStreet) The South African rand attempts to extend yesterday’s gains after the Fed decided to increase its rate cut forecast for 2024 by an additional 25bps. Although the central bank was expected to hold rates, the dovish response by Fed Chair Jerome Powell was hailed by risk assets across financial markets including most Emerging Market (EM) currencies. Key metrics cited by Mr. Powell were slowing GDP, softening inflation and a normalizing labor market. The focus moving forward from this point will be timing and size of upcoming rate cuts and where the Fed will end up settling between their forecasts for 2024 of -75bps and current money market pricing revealing -150bps. (DailyFX) Oil Rose as Much as 1.4% as OPEC + Blame Exaggerated Demand Concerns for Price Drop. OPEC+ Maintain Upbeat Forecasts for 2024 with Record Demand Expected. IEA Forecast Due Tomorrow to Provide Another Take on the 2024 Demand Picture. (DailyFX) WTI price moves upward on the sentiment of reduced borrowing costs in the future. Crude oil prices receive support as US EIA Crude Oil stockpiles are withdrawn by 4.259M barrels. Houthis attack on Norwegian commercial tanker might have impacted the Oil prices. (FXStreet) Gold price attracts some follow-through buying for the second straight day on Thursday. The US bond yields and the USD extend the post-FOMC slide, lending support to the metal. The risk-on environment caps gains for the XAU/USD ahead of the central bank bonanza. (FXStreet) Source: FXStreet, DailyFX Disclaimer: This information does not represent a BUY or SELL recommendation on the stock covered. Traders and Investors are encouraged to do their own analysis on stocks instead of blindly following any Trading calls raised by various parties on the Internet.

2023-12-13 09:20

EUR/USD trades with a mild negative bias on Wednesday amid a modest USD strength. The downside remains cushioned as traders wait for the crucial FOMC policy decision. The market attention will then shift to the ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday. (FXStreet) USD/CAD grapples to extend its gains on the back of subdued Crude oil prices. A firm breakthrough above 1.3600 could lead the pair to reach a 21-day EMA at 1.3620. 14-day RSI lies below the 50 mark; the 1.3550 level could act as key support. (FXStreet) Australian Dollar hovers around a major level ahead of the US PPI, Fed policy decision. Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented a budget forecast of AUD 1.1 billion in the MYEFO, down from the AUD 13.9 billion previous forecast. US CPI and Core CPI came in at 3.1% and 4.0% YoY, respectively, as expected. FOMC is expected to make no change in its policy rates. (FXStreet) GBP/USD attracts some sellers to 1.2528 following the downbeat UK data. The UK GDP rate dropped 0.3% in October from 0.2% growth in September. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated that price increases in November remained moderate. Investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) ahead of the Fed interest rate decision. (FXStreet) USD/CHF halts a two-day losing streak ahead of Fed policy decision. SNB is widely anticipated to hold its interest rate at 1.75% following the recent downbeat inflation. Investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments to gain insights into the interest rates trajectory. (FXStreet) NZD/USD loses ground near 0.6100 ahead of the key US event. The new coalition government of New Zealand passed legislation to abandon the RBNZ dual mandate and focus solely on price stability. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 5.25%–5.50% at its last meeting of the year. Investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting ahead of New Zealand's GDP growth for Q3. (FXStreet) The Euro extends its recovery beyond 0.8600 as UK data disappoints. UK GDP and manufacturing production deteriorate beyond expectations. These data pose a challenge for the Bank of England. (FXStreet) USD/MXN retraces recent losses ahead of the Fed policy decision. As-expected US CPI data diminishes the likelihood of rate cuts soon. Mexico's Industrial Output data showed resilience, recording a 5.5% increase in yearly output and a 0.6% uptick in the monthly report. (FXStreet) GBP/JPY regains positive traction on Wednesday and reverses a part of the overnight losses. The intraday uptick lost momentum after the disappointing release of the UK macro data. Reduced bets for a BoJ pivot continue to undermine the JPY and lend support to the cross. (FXStreet) Indian Rupee loses traction on the modest US Dollar (USD) demand. Indian Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged 5.55% YoY in November vs. 4.87% prior, Food Inflation climbed to 8.70% vs. 6.61% prior. Market players will closely watch the Fed interest rate decision and the press conference. (FXStreet) The South African rand kicked off the European session on the front foot on the back of a weaker USD as well as some positive South African specific economic data (see calendar below). Gold, mining and manufacturing production all surprised to the upside YoY for October while markets prepare themselves for the upcoming US CPI report. US inflation has been steadily declining albeit at a slower rate than many Fed officials hoped for but with other economic data showing a declining US economy, markets have ‘dovishly’ repriced expectations. This makes today’s CPI critical for short-term guidance especially after last week’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) beat. (DailyFX) WTI price faces challenges on weak demand projection due to higher interest rates. Crude oil prices receive pressure on oversupply concerns as the US EIA raised its forecast for the 2023 supply estimate by 300,000 bpd from the US. Fed is expected to keep interest rate unchanged in its last policy decision of the year. (FXStreet) Gold price drops to a fresh multi-week low on Wednesday, albeit lacks follow-through. Reduced bets for an early rate cut by the Fed continue to undermine the yellow metal. Bears now seem reluctant to place fresh bets ahead of the crucial FOMC policy decision. (FXStreet) Core Inflation Rate YoY (NOV) 4% % Vs 4% Forecast. Inflation Rate YoY (NOV) 3.1% Vs 3.1% Forecast. Inflation Rate MoM 0.1% and Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.3%. (DailyFX) Source: FXStreet, DailyFX Disclaimer: This information does not represent a BUY or SELL recommendation on the stock covered. Traders and Investors are encouraged to do their own analysis on stocks instead of blindly following any Trading calls raised by various parties on the Internet.

2023-12-12 10:36

The Euro trims losses as the US Dollar pulls back ahead of the US CPI release. US Inflation and the Fed decision will set the Dollar’s near-term direction. EUR/USD’s immediate trend remains bearish while below 1.0815. (FXStreet) NZD/USD gains momentum as the US inflation is expected to ease. US Dollar faces a challenge on downbeat US bond yields. Investors expect no interest rate change by the Federal Reserve. (FXStreet) The Japanese Yen snaps a two-day losing streak against the US Dollar on Tuesday. Geopolitical risks benefit the safe-haven JPY and exert pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Investors look to the US CPI for a fresh impetus ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday. (FXStreet) GBP/USD attracts some buyers for the second straight day and draws support from a softer USD. A fresh leg down in the US bond yields, along with a positive risk tone, undermines the Greenback. Spot prices react little to the UK jobs data as the focus remains glued to the crucial US CPI report. (FXStreet) Australian Dollar moves upward on a hawkish sentiment from the RBA Governor Michele Bullock. Australia’s chief policymaker Bullock indicated the RBA's focus on supporting a robust labor market in Australia. China has lifted restrictions on three meat suppliers from Australia. US CPI is expected to ease at 3.1%, while US Core CPI to remain steady at 4.0%. FOMC commences its two-day policy meeting with the expectation of no change in interest rates. (FXStreet) Indian Rupee edges lower on the stronger US Dollar. Indian government bond yields and the Indian rupee will be influenced by domestic and US inflation data this week. Investors will take cues from the Indian and US CPI data ahead of the FOMC meeting. (FXStreet) EUR/GBP loses momentum near 0.8572 following UK employment data. The UK’s ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.2% in the three months to October. The easing in inflationary pressure in the Eurozone fuels the bet for rate cuts early next year. Investors will focus on the German and Eurozone ZEW Survey, due on Tuesday. (FXStreet) USD/MXN trades lower as the Greenback fails to hold gains. US Dollar declines as traders adopt caution before US CPI release. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador mentioned that more needs to be done to curb inflation. (FXStreet) Oil Continues to Advance as Supply Concerns and Potential Rebound in Demand Keep Prices Elevated. Saudi Energy Minister to Provide a Further Update this Week on the Potential for Further Cuts or an Extension into 2024. IG Client Sentiment Shows Traders are 79% Net-Short on WTI at Present. (DailyFX) Gold price stages a modest recovery from a multi-week low, albeit struggles to capitalize on the move. Geopolitical risk, along with a modest USD downtick, turn out to be key factors acting as a tailwind. The uncertainty over the timing of when the Fed will cut rates holds back bulls from placing fresh bets. Investors now look to the crucial US CPI report for a fresh impetus ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday. (FXStreet) Silver stages a modest recovery from a near one-month low, albeit lacks follow-through. The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for additional losses. A sustained break below the $23.70 confluence is needed to reaffirm the negative bias. (FXStreet) Bitcoin Remains Above the 40k Mark Which Remains Key for Further Downside. Crypto Industry Resilience on Display with Latest Research Piece Reveals 83% of Crypto Mentions are Positive. Over $300 Million in Long Positions Liquidated Following Todays Slump in Prices. (DailyFX) Source: FXStreet, DailyFX Disclaimer: This information does not represent a BUY or SELL recommendation on the stock covered. Traders and Investors are encouraged to do their own analysis on stocks instead of blindly following any Trading calls raised by various parties on the Internet.

2023-12-08 09:25

Market Update - 08 December 2023 The Japanese Yen surged to a four-month top against the USD after BoJ Governor Ueda’s comments on Thursday. Rebounding US bond yields push the USD higher and assist USD/JPY to find support near the mid-142.00s on Friday. The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations keep a lid on any further recovery ahead of the crucial US NFP report. (FXStreet) EUR/USD ticks lower on Friday and erodes a part of the overnight recovery gains. Rebounding US bond yields revive the USD demand and exert pressure on the pair. Fed rate cut bets could cap the buck and lend support ahead of the US NFP report. (FXStreet) USD/CAD loses ground near 1.3577 amid the USD weakness. The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims increased 220K vs. 218K prior, Continuing Claims eased from 1.925M to 1.861M. Bank of Canada (BoC) held interest rates steady at its December meeting while opening the door for further hikes. The US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate will be in the spotlight on Friday. (FXStreet) GBP/USD remains confined around 1.2586 ahead of the key US event. The Bank of England (BoE) is likely to maintain the interest rate at 5.25% at its December meeting. US Initial Jobless Claims rose 220K vs. 218K prior, Continuing Claims dropped to 1.861M vs. 1.925M prior. US Nonfarm Payrolls will be a closely watched event by traders. (FXStreet) The DXY Index trades with significant losses on Thursday, remaining below the 20-day SMA near 103.50. Speculation emerges for a policy pivot by the BoJ after Ueda’s comments drive demand away from the USD to the JPY. Investors gear up for US Nonfarm Payrolls data on Friday. (FXStreet) EUR/JPY starts Friday flat at 155.62 after Thursday's sharp plunge; downward bias sustained post-BoJ Governor Ueda's remarks. Cross pair remains bearish, as technical indicators signal further losses; Tenkan-Sen below Kijun-Sen. Key support levels lie at 155.00, followed by October 3 low of 154.34, and December 7 low of 153.11. (FXStreet) AUD/JPY shifts bearish, after the pair dropped more than 130 pips on Thursday. Daily time frame shows bears in control as Chikou Span turns bearish while Kijun-Sen crosses above Tenkan-Sen. Key support levels lie at 95.00 initial support, followed by 94.00 and December 7 low of 93.70, October 3 low of 93.01. (FXStreet) AUD/USD trades with a mild positive bias for the second straight day on Friday. The setup seems tilted in favour of bulls and supports prospects for further gains. Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the NFP report. (FXStreet) NZD/JPY experienced a 1.60% downslope, consolidating at 88.90 after falling to 87.70. Hawkish bets on the BoJ and speculations of a liftoff are responsible for the strength of the JPY. The daily chart reveals a negative RSI slope and increasing red MACD Bars, suggesting a strong bearish momentum. (FXStreet) NZD/USD loses ground near 0.6165 amid the cautious mood. New Zealand Manufacturing Sales for Q3 arrived at -2.7% vs. 2.9% prior. US Initial Jobless Claims showed 220,000 from the previous week of 218,000. Traders await the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls data, due later on Friday. (FXStreet) WTI prices rebound to $70.85 after hitting the the six-month lows. Saudi Arabia and Russia called on all OPEC+ members to join an agreement on production cuts for the stability of global oil markets. China’s Crude oil Imports declined 9% year on year in November. Oil traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. (FXStreet) Gold price struggles to gain any meaningful traction and oscillates in a range on Friday. Expectations that the Fed is done with its policy-tightening campaign act as a tailwind Rebounding US bond yields, reviving USD demand and a positive risk tone cap gains. Traders also seem reluctant to place directional bets ahead of the crucial US NFP report. (FXStreet) Source: FXStreet, DailyFX Disclaimer: This information does not represent a BUY or SELL recommendation on the stock covered. Traders and Investors are encouraged to do their own analysis on stocks instead of blindly following any Trading calls raised by various parties on the Internet.

2023-12-07 09:21

Market Update - 07 December 2023 EUR/USD states a modest recovery from a multi-week low touched earlier this Thursday. Fed rate cut bets and a strong pickup in the JPY demand prompt some USD profit-taking. A softer risk tone should limit the USD losses and cap the pair amid dovish ECB rhetorics. (FXStreet) USD/CAD drifts higher on the firmer US Dollar. The Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its key overnight rate unchanged at 5.0%. ADP private payrolls climbed 103K in November versus 106K prior. Canadian Building Permits for October and US weekly Jobless Claims will be due later on Thursday. (FXStreet) GBP/USD remains under selling pressure around 1.2560 on the stronger USD. Analysts anticipate the Fed will hold rates until at least July, later than earlier thought. Bank of England’s Bailey said interest rates in the UK will need to stay at current levels for some time. Investors await the weekly US Jobless Claims for fresh impetus. (FXStreet) The USD/JPY climbed a scant tenth of a percent on Wednesday, seeking higher ground. US ADP Employment Change missed the mark, keeping risk flows pinned closer to havens. Japan GDP, US NFP to close out the trading week. (FXStreet) The EUR/GBP has been in a tight consolidation range this week as both currencies see declines. European Retail Sales disappointed, remain in contraction territory despite a moderate rebound. Eurozone GDP coming up on Thursday, markets expecting a flat reading. (FXStreet) AUD/USD remains under some selling pressure for the fourth successive day on Thursday. China’s economic woes and RBA rate cut bets weigh on the Aussie amid the recent USD rally. Dovish Fed expectations might cap any further USD gains and lend some support to the pair. (FXStreet) The GBP/JPY is seeing some push-and-pull on Wednesday, close to the day’s opening bids. 185.20 is firming up as a technical support level as highs sag, squeezing the Guppy into the middle. Early Thursday sees Japanese Gross Domestic Product (GDP). (FXStreet) EUR/JPY down for eighth day but holds above Ichimoku Cloud; Yen weakness cushions potential bearish momentum. ECB's Isabel Schnabel welcomes inflation data, signaling potential rate cuts ahead, diverging from the US Federal Reserve's stance. Key levels: For bearish momentum, watch for breach of 158.38, targeting Kumo bottom at 157.61; upside potential with 159.00 psychological figure. (FXStreet) NZD/USD is up by 0.02%; anticipates consolidation within 0.6130/0.6200 range before US Nonfarm Payrolls, on Friday, Sour market mood reflected in negative US equity market close; ADP Employment Change and widened trade deficit weigh on sentiment. Despite data indicating labor market easing, Non-Manufacturing PMI and Q3 GDP above 5% threshold signal solid US economic growth. (FXStreet) AUD/JPY halts downtrend with the pair gaining 0.10%, despite market sentiment remaining sour. Potential consolidation as weekly lows hold; breach below 96.26 may lead to testing psychological support at 96.00. Upside potential if buyers reclaim Kijun-Sen at 97.08, targeting Senkou Span A at 97.25 and November 30 high at 98.10. (FXStreet) NZD/JPY reversed its course on Wednesday, peaking at a high of 90.90 and then settling at 90.40. Bullish momentum flattened on the daily chart. Shorter time frames indicate that bears are gaining traction. (FXStreet) The AUD/NZD is down 0.8% on the week as the Aussie backslides. The Aussie sees six-week lows against the Kiwi. The next target for sellers will be 1.0600. (FXStreet) WTI extends its downside below $70.00, the lowest since July. China has seen arrivals of 10.33 million barrels per day (bpd), down 10.4% from October's reading. Oil traders are worried that OPEC+ failed to reach a unanimous agreement on production targets. US weekly Jobless Claims data will be due later on Thursday. (FXStreet) Gold price ticks higher for the second straight day and draws support from a combination of factors. Hopes that interest rates have peaked globally act as a tailwind amid broad-based USD weakness. A softer risk tone also contributes to the uptick, though bulls prefer to wait for the US NFP on Friday. (FXStreet) Source: FXStreet, DailyFX Disclaimer: This information does not represent a BUY or SELL recommendation on the stock covered. Traders and Investors are encouraged to do their own analysis on stocks instead of blindly following any Trading calls raised by various parties on the Internet.

2023-12-06 09:21

Market Update - 06 December 2023 The Euro extends losses after weak German factory orders Sluggish Eurozone data increases hopes of ECB rate cuts on early 2024 The EUR/USD approaches an important support area at 1.0750. (FXStreet) USD/CAD loses ground around 1.3575 despite the rebound of USD. US ISM Services PMI arrived at 52.7 in November vs. 51.8 prior, above the market consensus. Bank of Canada (BoC) to hold interest rate steady at 5.0% at its December meeting. US ADP Employment Change, BoC monetary policy meeting will be in the spotlight on Wednesday. (FXStreet) GBP/USD gains ground on the renewed USD weakness. US JOLTS labor data came in worse than expected, US ISM Services PMI arrived stronger than market expectation. The markets are now almost fully priced in a first BoE rate cut by June 2024. (FXStreet) USD/JPY is stabilizing above 147.00, having witnessed good two-way action on Tuesday. Investors assess Fed rate cut bets after mixed US economic data. US Dollar retreats. BoJ policymaker Ryozo Himino’s dovish comments lend support to USD/JPY. (FXStreet) The GBP/JPY has closed in the red for six of the last seven consecutive trading days. Broad-market risk-off market sentiment is seeing a firm bid into safe havens like the Yen. Wednesday brings the BoE's latest Financial Stability Report, early Friday sees Japan quarterly GDP. (FXStreet) EUR/JPY is diving almost 3% since November 27, when the pair hit a high of 163.72 The downtrend remains intact, though it could accelerate further with a drop below 157.55. If EUR/JPY buyers reclaim 159.00, that could pave the way for gains.(FXStreet) The EUR/GBP mildly softened to 0.8570, seeing mild losses, Daily chart indicators signal strong bearish momentum; RSI hints continue standing near overbought conditions while MACD showcases flat red bars. The bears seem to be taking a breather to consolidate losses. (FXStreet) The DXY Index sees upward movements threatening the 20-day SMA near the 104.00 level. The US service sector expanded in November, according to the ISM. Investors keenly await the Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls reports due this Friday. Unit labor costs and ADP Employment change figures from November are due on Wednesday. (FXStreet) The USD/CHF is grinding higher to eke out a second daily high, but momentum remains thin. The US Dollar remains steeply sold-off against the Swiss Franc. Economic calendar data leans heavily into the US side this week, culminating in another NFP print. (FXStreet) AUD/USD recovers above key 200-day SMA support-turned-resistance, as US Dollar turns south. Daily RSI is firming up above the midline while the 21-day SMA at 0.6535 offers strong support. If AUD/USD buyers reclaim 97.00, a rally to 98.00 is on the cards. (FXStreet) NZD/USD is rebounding above 0.6150 early Wednesday. Renewed US Dollar weakness is supporting the Kiwi amid a mixed mood. Focus shifts to US ADP Employment Change data for fresh impetus. (FXStreet) AUD/JPY dipped below key support levels, like the Kijun-Sen, and Senkou Span. The Chikou Span crossing below price action, and narrowing distance between Tenkan and Kijun-Sen, signals bears are gaining traction. If AUD/JPY buyers reclaim 97.00, a rally to 98.00 is on the cards. (FXStreet) WTI prices trade in negative territory, losing 0.04% on the day. Moody’s downgraded China’s sovereign credit rating from stable to negative, citing the increasing risks to growth and a property sector crisis. Oil traders are concerned about the effectiveness of voluntary supply cuts by OPEC+. US ADP Employment Change and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change will be due later on Wednesday. (FXStreet) Gold price is picking up fresh bids near $2,020 as the US Dollar slips despite a risk-off mood. Positive US Treasury bond yields could cap the Gold price rebound. All eyes on US ADP jobs data for a fresh trading impetus on Gold price. (FXStreet) Source: FXStreet, DailyFX Disclaimer: This information does not represent a BUY or SELL recommendation on the stock covered. Traders and Investors are encouraged to do their own analysis on stocks instead of blindly following any Trading calls raised by various parties on the Internet.