2024-09-17 07:51

LONDON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - BNP Paribas Markets 360 reckons the euro could rally against the dollar if there is a global recession, marking a break with past trading dynamics. Sam Lynton-Brown, global head of macro strategy at the bank, gives a number of reasons for what he describes as one of the team's controversial views. This includes the dollar being used as a high-yielding currency, which has historically not been the case, meaning the dollar is more vulnerable to fall as U.S. interest rates come down. The Federal Reserve pushing rates further above their neutral level than many other central banks is another factor. In addition, Lynton-Brown said the euro and peripheral government bond spreads in the currency bloc have become less sensitive to risk-off periods, a positive for the euro. WHY IT’S IMPORTANT Euro/dollar is the most actively traded currency pair in the $7.5 trillion a day global currency market and the drivers behind its direction are tracked by investors globally. KEY QUOTE "If the U.S. were to enter a hard landing, it would make us even more bullish on euro/dollar," said Lynton-Brown. CONTEXT BNP Paribas Markets 360's base case is for an economic soft landing. It forecasts euro/dollar to rally to $1.15 by end-2025, implying a gain of just over 3.5% from current levels around $1.11 . A Reuters poll recently forecast the euro to trade around $1.12 in a year. WHAT'S NEXT The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates for the first time in four years on Wednesday and could even deliver a half-point cut. Speculation over an outsized cut has already hurt the dollar and any signs the U.S. economy is slowing more quickly than anticipated - especially the labour market - could stoke recession worries. GRAPHIC Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/bnp-paribas-says-euro-could-rise-not-fall-if-recession-hits-2024-09-17/

2024-09-17 07:20

Sept 17 (Reuters) - The yellow-eyed penguin, or hoiho, has been crowned New Zealand's Bird of the Year for 2024, securing 6,328 votes for its second win in the popular annual competition. The hoiho, considered the world's rarest penguin species by competition organisers Forest and Bird, surpassed the runner-up Chatham Island black robin and the kakapo, earning significant public support in the final week of the contest. This year's competition was more low-key than last year, when a televised campaign by American-British comedian John Oliver in favour of the puteketeke attracted a record number of voters from 195 countries and crashed the website's verification system. The hoiho, which is native to New Zealand, has an estimated population of between 4,000 to 5,000. Despite its Maori name meaning "noise shouter," the species is known for its elusive behaviour and strong odour. The penguin previously won the title in 2019. Forest and Bird CEO Nicola Toki said the species was in a critical condition. "We've lost 78% of their mainland population in just 15 years due to predators and climate change," she said. The competition saw nearly 52,500 votes cast, reflecting New Zealanders' deep connection with their native birds, but far fewer than the more than 350,000 received last year after Oliver's campaign attracted a global audience. "It's great to see us clicking into our national identity," Toki said. With few land-based predators for much of its history, New Zealand is home to more species of flightless bird than anywhere else in the world, including penguins, takahe and the iconic kiwi. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/shy-smelly-penguin-wins-new-zealand-bird-year-2024-09-17/

2024-09-17 07:19

DUBAI, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Saudi Aramco will increase its stake in liquefied natural gas firm MidOcean Energy to 49% and fund its acquisition of a new 15% stake in Peru LNG from Hunt Oil Company, MidOcean and Hunt said on Monday. The Saudi oil giant agreed to buy a minority stake in MidOcean from EIG for $500 million last year, its first foray into LNG abroad, without disclosing the stake's size. Aramco, the world's top oil exporter, is seeking to strengthen its position in the LNG market, which is set to grow by 50% globally by 2030, especially in the United States where LNG capacity is set to almost double over the next four years. MidOcean did not disclose how much it is paying for the stake in Peru LNG (PLNG) or the value of Aramco's funding. Aramco declined to comment beyond the statement. Representatives for EIG did not immediately respond to emailed requests for comment. "We are focused on positioning the PLNG project for the future, and the opportunity to bring in MidOcean as a partner was a great strategic fit to make that happen," Hunt CEO Mark Gunning said in the statement. Hunt declined to comment beyond the statement. Washington, DC-headquartered MidOcean bought a 20% stake in PLNG for $256.5 million in April. MidOcean and Hunt will each hold a 35% stake in PLNG when the deal closes, MidOcean said in its statement. "Aramco's further investment in MidOcean strengthens MidOcean and Aramco's position in the global LNG market and will provide both parties with further exposure to the only LNG export project in South America," MidOcean said. Aramco will hold an indirect stake of 17.2% in PLNG. Hunt continues to hold a 25.2% holding in the Camisea upstream project in Peru, where it has been invested since 2000, MidOcean said. PLNG's assets include a natural gas liquefaction plant with a 4.45 million tons per annum (mtpa) processing capacity. Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said earlier this year his company may partner with MidOcean to invest in LNG projects outside of Australia. Aramco's interest in MidOcean deepens its relationship with EIG, which led a consortium to buy a 49% stake in Aramco's oil pipelines business in 2021 for $12.4 billion. MidOcean announced in March the close of its acquisition of Australian LNG projects from Japan's Tokyo Gas. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/aramco-up-stake-eigs-midocean-49-fund-new-stake-peru-lng-2024-09-16/

2024-09-17 07:11

MILAN/LONDON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Global investor sentiment improved in September for the first time since June on optimism over a soft landing and interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a BofA survey of fund mangers published on Tuesday showed. According to the survey, cash allocations fell to 4.2% with investors also rotating to bond-sensitive assets from cyclicals, driving overweight allocations to utilities to the highest since 2008. Commodity exposure, meanwhile, fell to a seven-year low. BofA said investors in the survey were best described as “nervous bulls". Signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labour market and a deterioration in other economic metrics have prompted traders to raise bets on an unusually large rate cut at the Fed's policy meeting this week. Stocks have hit record highs and bond prices have also rallied sharply as investors price in the prospect of relief from several years of sky-high interest rates. "52% of fund manager survey investors believe there will be no recession for the U.S. economy in the next 18 months," the bank said. The survey, which covers the period from Sept 6-12 and canvassed 243 panellists with $666 billion in assets under management, showed six out of 10 polled believed interest rates were too restrictive, marking a 16-year high. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/rate-cut-fever-boosts-investor-sentiment-september-bofa-survey-shows-2024-09-17/

2024-09-17 07:05

PARIS, Sept 17 (Reuters) - France has increased its surveillance for African swine fever along part of the border with Germany as the disease continues to spread among wild boar in much of Europe, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday. Authorities are in contact with local hunters to regulate wild boar populations and are also considering the possibility of installing fencing to stop wild boar roaming, the ministry said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-steps-up-african-swine-fever-surveillance-german-border-2024-09-17/

2024-09-17 07:01

Trade surplus of $2.89 bln bigger than $1.96 bln poll forecast August exports +7.1% vs +3.8% in poll Imports +9.5%, vs +8.2% in poll JAKARTA, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Indonesia's trade surplus rose to a three-month high in August, topping forecasts, as exports grew much faster than expected, official data showed on Tuesday. The August trade data is among economic indicators the central bank will analyse during its two-day policy meeting starting on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters ahead of the trade data expected Bank Indonesia (BI) to leave rates unchanged. The world's top exporter of thermal coal, palm oil and nickel metals reported a surplus of $2.89 billion last month, compared with $1.96 billion expected in a Reuters poll. The surplus was the biggest since May. Exports in August grew 7.13% on a yearly basis to $23.56 billion, Statistics Indonesia said. The median forecast was for a 3.83% annual rise last month. The pace of the August export rise was the quickest since January 2023, according to LSEG data. Imports were worth $20.67 billion, up 9.46% from a year earlier, compared with the poll's expectation of an 8.15% rise. Shipments from the country have risen in annual terms each month since April, recovering after a year where export values fell sharply following the peak of a post-pandemic commodity price boom. Despite the data coming in higher than expected, some economists said they still expected the BI to stand pat due to previous comments from policymakers prioritising stability and the potential for BI to wait for the Federal Reserve to cut U.S. rates. "The widening of the surplus gives BI more confidence and we see room for BI to cut rates," said Maybank Indonesia economist Myrdal Gunarto. "But based on past BI statements about its focus on macroeconomic and monetary stability, we think BI would be inclined to maintain the benchmark rate at the same level at 6.25%, especially as the conclusion of its meeting tomorrow is ahead of the Fed," he added. Oil and gas shipments fell last month, but this was offset by an 8.7% increase in exports of manufactured goods. Also boosting the August figures was a 9.7% annual increase in coal shipments to $2.47 billion. Imports of capital goods as well as raw and intermediary goods for further processing rose more than 11%. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/indonesias-trade-surplus-beat-forecast-aug-2024-09-17/