MEXICO CITY, April 2 (Reuters) - Mexico lowered its estimate for average crude oil production for this year by 129,000 barrels per day (bpd), citing a "prudent approach" that takes into account the trajectory of the first months of the year.

This would bring the country below the ambitious 1.8 million bpd target set by President Claudia Sheinbaum.

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In its revised estimate, the finance ministry estimated in its preliminary budget criteria published late on Tuesday that production will average 1.762 million bpd for this year and then increase to 1.775 million bpd next year.

It takes into account the "development of new strategic projects and the eventual incorporation of additional fields if exploration proves favorable," according to the document.

The treasury department specified, in response to a Reuters inquiry, that the new projections include crude oil and condensate production from the state company Pemex and private companies operating in the country.

Pemex remains by far the largest producer, and its dominant position was strengthened even further by a recently approved energy reform.

However, Pemex has failed to halt the sustained decline. Production, including partners, has averaged 1.619 million bpd in the first two months of the year, official data shows.

Burdened with tens of billions of dollars in financial and provider debt, the government has said that new contracting schemes for private companies will allow the state company to increase production and reach the 1.8 million bpd target.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mexicos-finance-ministry-estimates-crude-oil-production-129000-bpd-below-target-2025-04-02/