Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) - Prices, Charts, and Analysis: BTC/USD - A break above short-term resistance may lead to a longer-term move higher. Ethereum – The technical setup is looking increasingly positive. Bitcoin has been treading water for the last three weeks with little to suggest either a move higher or lower. The daily BTC/USD chart looks positive with all three simple moving averages in a bullish set-up and supporting a move higher, with a short-term series of higher lows and higher highs since the start of May adding to positive momentum. A break and open above $70k should quickly see $72k tested, leaving the ATH at $73,778 vulnerable. With demand from a range of global spot Bitcoin ETFs outpacing post-halving new Bitcoin supply, the medium-to-longer outlook for Bitcoin looks constructive. Bitcoin Halving – What Does It Mean? Bitcoin Daily Price Chart Recent SEC approval for a range of spot Ethereum ETFs has seen the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap perform strongly since late May. The near 20% bullish candle on May 20th, and the subsequent period of consolidation, is setting up a rough bullish flag pennant, again pointing to higher prices. The March 12th high at $4,095 should be tested when the May 27th high at $3,974 is broken, leaving the November 2021 ATH at $4,860 the longer-term target. Pennant Patterns: Trading Bearish and Bullish Pennants Ethereum Daily Price Chart All charts via TradingView What is your view on Bitcoin and Ethereum – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-ethereum-eth-technical-outlooks-20240604.html

US GDP, US Dollar News and Analysis US Q2 GDP edges higher, Q3 forecasts reveal potential vulnerabilities Q3 growth likely to be more modest according to the Atlanta Fed US Dollar Index attempts a recovery after a 5% drop US Q2 GDP Edges Higher, Q3 Forecasts Reveal Potential Vulnerabilities The second estimate of Q2 GDP edged higher on Thursday after more data had filtered through. Initially, it was revealed that second quarter economic growth grew 2.8% on Q1 to put in a decent performance over the first half of the year. The US economy has endured restrictive monetary policy as interest rates remain between 5.25% and 5.5% for the time being. However, recent labour market data sparked concerns around overtightening when the unemployment rate rose sharply from 4.1% in June to 4.3% in July. The FOMC minutes for the July meeting signalled a general preference for the Fed’s first interest rate cut in September. Addresses from notable Fed speakers at this month’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, including Jerome Powell, added further conviction to the view that September will usher in lower interest rates. The Atlanta Fed publishes its very own forecast of the current quarter’s performance given incoming data and currently envisions more moderate Q3 growth of 2%. Source: atlantafed.org, GDPNow forecast, prepared by Richard Snow The US Dollar Index Attempts to Recover after a 5% Drop One measure of USD performance is the US dollar basket (DXY), which attempts to claw back losses that originated in July. There is a growing consensus that interest rates will not only start to come down in September but that the Fed may be forced into shaving as much as 100-basis points before year end. Additionally, restrictive monetary policy is weighing on the labour market, seeing unemployment rising well above the 4% mark while success in the battle against inflation appears to be on the horizon. DXY found support around the 100.50 marker and received a slight bullish lift after the Q2 GDP data came in. With markets already pricing in 100 bps worth of cuts this year, dollar downside may have stalled for a while – until the next catalyst is upon us. This may be in the form of lower than expected PCE data or worsening job losses in next week’s August NFP report. The next level of support comes in at the psychological 100 mark. Current USD buoyancy has been aided by the RSI emerging out of oversold territory. Resistance appears at 101.90 followed by 103.00. US Dollar Basket (DXY) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/upward-revision-to-q2-gdp-aids-the-us-dollar-s-vulnerable-recovery-20240829.html

Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis and Charts Gold remains positive in the coming weeks Silver’s technical break higher remains in place. The US dollar Index (DXY) is around 0.4% higher in European trade after steadying around a 9-month low this week. This slight move higher lacks any conviction and a further move lower is expected in the coming weeks as US interest rate cuts come into play. The next driver of price action, and sentiment, is likely to be Nvidia’s quarterly earnings released after the US market close today. US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart The outlook for gold remains positive for the weeks ahead after the precious metal reached another multi-decade high last week. The demand for gold remains at, or close to, the highest level in 14 years, driven higher by Middle East tensions and a dovish US interest rate outlook. Initial support is around $2,485/oz. followed by $2,450/oz. Gold Daily Price Chart Retail trader data shows 53.66% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.16 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 10.14% higher than yesterday and 13.05% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.69% lower than yesterday and 9.76% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias. Silver broke through a bullish flag pattern on August 16th and posted a fresh six-week high at the start of this week. This bullish pattern remains in control of silver’s outlook and a clear break above $29.82/oz. should bring the July 11th high at $31.75/oz. into play. Silver Daily Price Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-usd-and-silver-xag-usd-drift-as-us-dollar-pares-recent-losses-20240828.html

Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis and Charts Gold remains positive in the coming weeks Silver’s technical break higher remains in place. The US dollar Index (DXY) is around 0.4% higher in European trade after steadying around a 9-month low this week. This slight move higher lacks any conviction and a further move lower is expected in the coming weeks as US interest rate cuts come into play. The next driver of price action, and sentiment, is likely to be Nvidia’s quarterly earnings released after the US market close today. US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart The outlook for gold remains positive for the weeks ahead after the precious metal reached another multi-decade high last week. The demand for gold remains at, or close to, the highest level in 14 years, driven higher by Middle East tensions and a dovish US interest rate outlook. Initial support is around $2,485/oz. followed by $2,450/oz. Gold Daily Price Chart Retail trader data shows 53.66% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.16 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 10.14% higher than yesterday and 13.05% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.69% lower than yesterday and 9.76% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias. Silver broke through a bullish flag pattern on August 16th and posted a fresh six-week high at the start of this week. This bullish pattern remains in control of silver’s outlook and a clear break above $29.82/oz. should bring the July 11th high at $31.75/oz. into play. Silver Daily Price Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-usd-and-silver-xag-usd-drift-as-us-dollar-pares-recent-losses-20240828.html

Brent, WTI Oil News and Analysis Geopolitical uncertainty and supply concerns have propped up oil Oil prices settle ahead of technical area of confluence resistance WTI respects major long-term level but geopolitical uncertainty remains The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library External Factors have Propped up the Oil Market Oil prices gathered upward momentum on the back of reports of outages at Libya’s main oilfields – a major source of income for the internationally recognized government in Tripoli. The oilfields in the east of the country are said to be under the influence of Libyan military leader Khalifa Haftar who opposes the Tripoli government. According to Reuters, the Libyan government led by Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah is yet to confirm any disruptions, but clearly the threat of impacted oilfields has filtered into the market to buoy oil prices. Such uncertainty around international oil supply has been further aided by the continuing situation in the Middle East where Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have launched missiles at one another. According to Reuters, a top US general said on Monday that the danger of broader war has subsided somewhat but the lingering threat of an Iran strike on Israel remains a possibility. As such, oil markets have been on edge which has been witnessed in the sharp rise in the oil price. Oil Prices Settle Ahead of Technical Area of Confluence Resistance Oil bulls have enjoyed the recent leg higher, riding price action from $75.70 a barrel to $81.56. External factors such as supply concerns in Libya and the threat of escalations in the Middle East provided a catalyst for lowly oil prices. However, today’s price action points to a potential slowdown in upside momentum, as the commodity has fallen short of the $82 mark – the prior swing high of $82.35 earlier this month. Oil has been on a broader downward trend as global economic prospects remain constrained and estimates of oil demand growth have been revised lower as a result. $82.00 remains key to a bullish continuation, especially given the fact it coincides with both the 50 and 200-day simple moving averages – providing confluence resistance. In the event bulls can sustain the bullish move, $85 becomes the next level of resistance. Support remains at $77.00 with the RSI providing no particular assistance as it trades around middle ground (approaching neither overbought or oversold territory). Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow WTI crude oil trades in a similar fashion to Brent, rising over the three previous trading sessions, only to slow down today, thus far. Resistance appears at the significant long-term level of $77.40 which can be seen below. It acted as major support in 2011 and 2013, and a major pivot point in 2018. WTI Oil Monthly Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Immediate resistance remains at $77.40, followed by the November and December 2023 highs around $79.77 which have also kept bulls at bay more recently. Support lies at $72.50. WTI Oil Continuous Futures (CL1!) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/libya-outages-and-middle-east-tensions-spark-supply-concerns-wti-nears-key-77-40-resistance-20240827.html

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Analysis BoJ encouraged to stick to the plan as inflation continues above target Japanese CPI remains at 2.8% - the same as last month and beats estimate of 2.7% USD/JPY gains prove short-lived ahead of Powell’s address at Jackson Hole BoJ Encouraged to Stick to the Plan as Inflation Continues above Target The Japanese currency strengthened, with the Yen gaining as much as 0.7% against the US dollar, following comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda suggesting further interest rate increases. This development coincided with a recovery in Asian markets, buoyed by improved performance in Chinese stocks. In Japan, government bond futures experienced a decline while the Topix index saw gains. Addressing lawmakers, the central bank governor maintained that the BoJ's stance remained unchanged, provided that inflation and economic data aligned with their projections. These remarks followed reassurances from Ueda's deputy that future rate hikes would be contingent on market conditions, an attempt to calm investors after the central bank's July rate increase sparked a significant global equity selloff earlier this month. Adding to the economic picture, Japan's inflation data for July exceeded forecasts. The consumer price index showed a 2.8% year-on-year increase, matching the previous month's figure and surpassing the 2.7% rise predicted by economists. A recent Reuters poll revealed that 57% of surveyed economists expect another rate hike from the BoJ before the end of the year, with those voting for the increase seeing this most likely in December. With the interest rate differential narrowing, albeit slowly, markets have already started to cover large carry trades that sought to take advantage of cheap money at a time when yen interest rates were in negative territory. The trend is likely to continue as long as inflation and wage growth unfold as anticipated by the BoJ. Higher interest rates in Japan contrast the market’s expectations around incoming rate cuts from the Federal Reserve Bank, likely starting in September. Intra-day Currency Performance Source: FinancialJuice, prepared by Richard Snow USD/JPY Witnesses a Modest Decline Ahead of Jackson Hole Event USD/JPY trades a tad lower ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole address on the economic outlook. He and other prominent central bankers will provide their insights on current conditions and monetary policy in general. Given we have already perused the FOMC minutes from July where the majority of the committee agreed that a rate cut in September is appropriate, there could be very little new information being shared today. Under such a scenario it wouldn’t be unusual to see the dollar breathe a sigh of relief and trade a little higher heading into the weekend. The pair has attempted a pullback after the massive downtrend, which culminated after a softer US CPI print encouraged Japanese officials to intervene in the FX market to strengthen the yen. USD/JPY now trades lower while markets attempt to assess the next move. If the Fed adopt a bearish outlook while the BoJ continue to move forward with one more rate hike in December, it is possible there will be further weakness heading into the end of the year. Support lies at the spike low of 141.70, followed by 140.25 – a prior swing low from December last year. Resistance lies at the recent swing high of 149.40. USD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-cpi-and-ueda-s-comments-prop-up-the-yen-ahead-of-powell-s-address-20240823.html

EUR/USD Underpinned by Better-Than-Expected Euro Area PMIs, Weak US Dollar Euro Area composite PMI beats expectations but caution needed German manufacturing woes continue Can Powell support an ailing US dollar? Economic activity in the Euro Area picked up in August, according to the latest HCOB PMIs, but a closer look at the numbers ‘reveals that the underlying fundamentals might be shakier than they appear,’ according to HCOB chief economist Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia. ‘It’s a tale of two worlds. The manufacturing sector remains mired in recession, while the services sector still appears to be growing at a decent clip. But with the temporary Olympic boost in France fading and signs of waning confidence across the Eurozone’s service industry, it’s likely only a matter of time before the struggles of the manufacturing sector start weighing on services too.’ The Euro posted a fresh 13-month high against the US dollar on Monday and remains within touching distance of posting another high today. The US dollar remains weak as the Federal Reserve prepares a series of interest rate cuts that are expected to start in September. Friday’s appearance by Fed chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium may give the market a better understanding of the central bank’s current thinking and the expected tempo of rate cuts going forward. Today’s EUR/USD price action is likely to remain within Monday’s range – 1.1099-1.1174 – with yesterday’s high the more likely to be tested. EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart Using TradingView Retail trader data shows 22.77% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 3.39 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 5.47% lower than yesterday and 23.95% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.73% higher than yesterday and 7.93% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/eur-usd-underpinned-by-better-than-expected-euro-area-pmis-weak-us-dollar-20240822.html

EUR/USD and GBP/USD Rallies Fuelled by Ongoing US Dollar Weakness EUR/USD and GBP/USD Latest The US dollar is sliding lower as US rate cuts near EUR/USD and GBP/USD post multi-month highs The minutes of the last FOMC meeting are released later in today’s session and will show a more detailed picture of why the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. Since the July meeting, a string of data releases has pointed to growing weakness in the US economy, suggesting that the Fed will start to trim interest rates in September. Financial markets currently price in a 67.5% chance of a 25-basis point and a 32.5% chance of a 50-basis cut. With today’s FOMC minutes already priced into the market, trader’s attention will turn to chair Powell’s appearance at this year’s Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Chair Powell is expected to acknowledge that conditions, and data, are now right for a series of interest rate cuts to start in September. Markets will be keen to see if Powell agrees with current market pricing of 100 basis points of cuts this year, or if he pushes back against current assumptions. With only three FOMC meetings left this year, 100 basis points of cuts would require a 50bp move at one of these meetings. The US dollar index (DXY) has moved sharply lower over the last two months as traders price in a more dovish Fed. The technical outlook for DXY remains negative with two bearish flag formations on the daily chart keeping downward pressure on the dollar. US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart The Euro and Sterling have benefited from this weak dollar backdrop with EUR/USD and GBP/USD making fresh multi-month highs yesterday. EUR/USD has made a strong recovery after posting a five-month low of 1.0600 in mid-April and Monday’s bullish 50-day/200-day simple moving average crossover suggests that the pair are likely to move higher in the coming weeks. EUR/USD Daily Chart The GBP/USD daily chart also looks positive with an unbroken series of higher lows and higher highs made since late-April. While Sterling has strengthened in its own right recently, further gains in the pair will be dictated by the US dollar outlook. GBP/USD Daily Chart Charts usingTradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/eur-usd-and-gbp-usd-rallies-fuelled-by-ongoing-us-dollar-weakness-20240821.html

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Analysis Japan’s July trade balance likely impacted by a significantly stronger yen Economists and market participants expect another rate hike this year USD/JPY bearish continuation may receive a helping hand from the Fed Japan’s July Trade Balance Likely Impacted by a Significantly Stronger Yen Japan’s trade balance in July was worse than expected but the deficit was roughly half of what was seen in May and roughly one third of what it was in January. Imports in July rose more than anticipated while a stronger yen may have impacted exports, which were lower than expected. The deficit has raised some doubts around the Japanese economic recovery, but trade balances have proven to be very inconsistent, typically rising one month and falling the next. After contracting 0.6% in Q1, the Japanese economy expanded by an impressive 0.8% in Q2 of this year, supporting recent measures from the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to more normal levels. 57% of economists polled by Reuters anticipate another interest rate hike in December this year. This comes off the back of two prior hikes, the most recent of which saw a surprise 15 basis points (bps) rise that caught many market participants off guard. Now, markets price in 6 bps heading into December but that is likely to hinge on whether the US can avoid fears of a possible recession which arose after the Fed voted against a rate cut in July, followed shortly by a worrying rise in the unemployment rate. BOJ Rate Expectations Source: Refinitiv, prepared by Richard Snow Japanese Yen Eases after Sombre Trade Data The Japanese yen headed lower in the early hours of trading, aided by the disappointing trade stats, with the Canadian and US dollars leading the pack for now. It won’t be surprising to see muted moves ahead of the FOMC minutes and an expected downward revision to job gains between April 2023 and March 2024. The combination of lower inflation, rate cut expectations and a weaker jobs market have contributed to the steady dollar decline, which may very well continue if the FOMC minutes and job revisions paint a bearish picture. USD/JPY could therefore manage another leg lower after recently consolidating. Currency Performance Chart Showing Shorter-term Yen Depreciation Source: FinancialJuice, prepared by Richard Snow USD/JPY Bearish Continuation May Receive a Helping Hand from the Fed USD/JPY reached the swing low on Monday the 5th of August when volatility spiked as hedge funds rushed to cover carry trades. Since then, there has been a partial recovery as prices pulled back but ultimately, there has been a continuation of the more medium-term downtrend. The US dollar has come under a lot of pressure as softer inflation and a worsening outlook in the jobs market has prompted traders to reduce USD exposure as the Fed prepare for the much-anticipated rate cut next month. This week’s Jackson Hole address from Jerome Powell will be followed with great interest. Speculation around a 25 bps or 50 bps cut continue to circulate, with markets assigning a 30% change the Fed will front load the rate cutting cycle. The next level of support for USD/JPY lies at the spike low of 141.70, followed by the December 2023 low of 140.25. With some time to go until the BoJ is expected to hike, the catalyst of a further bearish move in USD/JPY is more likely to come from the US with the FOMC minutes, jobs revision, and Jackson Hole Economic Symposium all taking place this week. Resistance appears at the recent high at 149.40, followed by the 200-day simple moving average (red line) and 151.90 level. USD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/strong-yen-weighed-on-japan-s-trade-balance-in-july-fed-speakers-up-next-20240821.html

US Dollar (DXY), USD/JPY, and Gold Latest US dollar weakens further ahead of key Fed chair speech USD/JPY looks technically weak Gold consolidating Friday’s record high. This year’s Jackson Hole Symposium – “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy” – will be held on August 22-24 with Fed chair Jerome Powell’s keynote speech on Friday as the main attraction. Traders expect chair Powell to signal that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September with financial markets currently pricing in nearly 100 basis points of rate cuts by the end of this year. With only three FOMC meetings left this year, and with the Fed normally moving in 25 basis point clips, one 50 basis point rate cut is looking likely if market predictions prove to be correct. USD/JPY has been on a rollercoaster ride over the last month, shedding 20 big figures in three weeks after the BoJ hiked rates for the second time this year. The pair then rallied by nearly 10 big figures on a bout of US dollar strength before dropping last Friday, and today, on a weaker US dollar. The next area of USD/JPY resistance is seen between 151.45 (200-day sma) and a prior level of horizontal resistance turned support at just under 152.00. A renewed sell-off will likely bring 140.28 into focus. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart via TradingView Gold finally broke through a stubborn area of resistance and posted a fresh all-time high on Friday. Expectations of lower interest rates and fears that the situation in the Middle East could escalate at any time have given a strong, underlying bid. Support is seen at $2,485/oz. ahead of $2,450/oz. while gold continues its price discovery on the upside. Gold Daily Price Chart Chart via TradingView Retail trader data shows 43.65% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.29 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 11.99% higher than yesterday and 13.24% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.76% higher than yesterday and 30.77% higher than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests gold prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed gold trading bias. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-remains-weak-ahead-of-jackson-hole-usd-jpy-and-gold-latest-20240819.html