2023-12-14 11:55

XAU/USD is strongly bullish as the DXY crashed after the FOMC. Taking out the resistance levels may announce further growth towards the median line. The BOE and ECB should bring high volatility today. The gold price turned upside after pausing at yesterday’s low of $1,973. The precious metal has climbed as high as $2,040 today. Now, it has retreated a little and is trading at 2,035 at the time of writing. XAU/USD edged higher as the USD depreciated versus its rivals after the FOMC. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- The US dollar plummeted after the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, and FOMC Economic Projections were published. However, the FOMC Press Conference was decisive, punishing the greenback. The FED announced a potential 75 bps cut in 2024. Today, the fundamentals should move the rate again. As expected, the SNB left the monetary policy unchanged. The SNB Policy Rate remained at 1.75%. Later, the Bank of England is expected to keep the Official Bank Rate at 5.25%, but the Monetary Policy Summary and MPC Official Bank Rate Votes could have an impact. In addition, the ECB should maintain the monetary policy. Only the ECB Press Conference could change the sentiment. Also, don’t forget that the US will release the retail sales data. The Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales indicators could announce a 0.1% drop, while Unemployment Claims could be reported at 219K in the last week. Technically, the XAU/USD rallied after breaking the Falling Wedge pattern. The price action revealed exhausted sellers. Now, it was almost at the former high of $2,041. This stands as a static resistance. It remains to see how it reacts around it, as false breakouts may result in a new sell-off in the short term. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The weekly pivot point of $2,049 also represents an important upside obstacle. I’ve drawn an ascending pitchfork where the median line (ml) is seen as a major target if the rate continues to grow. The XAU/USD validates more gains by taking out the immediate resistance levels. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/14/gold-price-rallies-above-2000-after-dovish-fomc/

2023-12-14 09:38

The European Central Bank is poised to hold historically high borrowing costs. Investor expectations suggest a possible ECB rate cut in the spring. The Fed recently signaled lower borrowing costs in the US. On Thursday, the gains in the EUR/USD outlook persisted, supported by the Federal Reserve’s dovish comments and in anticipation of the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Looking ahead, the ECB is expected to uphold historically high borrowing costs, reinforcing the positive sentiment surrounding the currency pair. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, President Christine Lagarde faces pressure to defend or abandon her guidance that rates will remain unchanged for the next few quarters. Meanwhile, investor expectations suggest a possible rate cut in the spring. Consequently, such a move would position the ECB as the first major central bank to reverse its rate hike course. Still, Lagarde will likely resist rate-cut speculations, especially after a year and a half and ten consecutive hikes to lower inflation. On the other hand, yesterday’s Fed meeting signaled impending lower borrowing costs, indicating up to three cuts. This makes any ECB resistance more difficult. Following the Fed’s dovish commentary, the euro strengthened over 1% against the dollar, and rate cut expectations surged. Currently, markets are pricing in 155 basis points of ECB easing in the coming year, including two moves by April. This pricing aligns with expectations for the Fed for two moves by May 1, with 155 basis points over 2024. Furthermore, updated economic projections are likely to strengthen expectations of an ECB pivot, as they are expected to reveal lower inflation and growth, particularly for the next year. EUR/USD key events today US retail sales US initial jobless claims ECB policy meeting EUR/USD technical outlook: Pullback looms as buyers face strong resistance The bias for EUR/USD on the charts is bullish. This shift in sentiment happened recently when the downtrend found strong support at the 1.0750 key level. Consequently, bears weakened as the price started moving sideways before it broke above the 30-SMA resistance. After pulling back to retest the SMA, the price shot up with a strong bullish candle, breaching the 1.0851 key level. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Still, the recent bullish move is a retracement of the previous bearish trend. Moreover, the price has retraced to the key 0.618 fib level. The bullish move might pause at this level for a pullback to retest 1.0851 before the bullish move continues. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/14/eur-usd-outlook-bulls-emerge-after-dovish-fed-eyes-on-ecb/

2023-12-14 08:46

In November, Australia’s employment exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month. The Reserve Bank of Australia may have concluded its tightening cycle. Following the Federal Reserve’s latest economic projections, the dollar hit a fresh four-month low. Thursday saw a bullish AUD/USD forecast as the Australian dollar catapulted to an almost five-month peak, fueled by robust employment data. However, the excitement in the air is met with a twist. Futures markets currently indicate a prevailing sentiment: the Reserve Bank of Australia may have concluded its tightening cycle. Moreover, expectations now include more than 50 basis points of easing for 2024. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- In November, Australia’s employment exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month. Notably, there was an increase of 61,500 jobs compared to a revised 42,700 in October, surpassing the anticipated rise of around 11,000. However, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, the highest since last May. More individuals actively sought employment, contributing to signs of a loosening labor market. Meanwhile, the participation rate reached a record high of 67.2%. Last week, the RBA maintained interest rates at a 12-year high of 4.35%. Furthermore, to curb inflation, the RBA has undertaken an aggressive tightening campaign, raising interest rates by 425 basis points—the most substantial in the bank’s history. Meanwhile, the dollar hit a fresh four-month low following the Federal Reserve’s latest economic projections. The Fed signaled the conclusion of the interest-rate hike cycle. Moreover, policymakers expect lower borrowing costs in 2024. AUD/USD key events today US core retail sales US unemployment claims AUD/USD technical forecast: Bulls break free from consolidation AUD/USD bulls have broken out of consolidation with a sharp move on the charts. The previous bullish move paused when bullish momentum weakened at the 0.6650 key resistance level. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Consequently, bears pushed the price below the 30-SMA, leading to a bearish sentiment shift. However, this new direction was short-lived as the price failed to trade below the 0.6551 key support level. As a result, the price entered a period of consolidation, with bears and bulls battling for control. Eventually, bulls took control with a break above the range area resistance and the 0.6650 key level. At the same time, the RSI rose to the overbought level, indicating strong bullish momentum. The next hurdle for the pair is at the 0.6750 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/14/aud-usd-forecast-aussie-hits-five-month-high-on-strong-jobs/

2023-12-13 13:23

The USD/JPY price could drop anytime if it stays below the downtrend line. The FOMC should bring high volatility. A hawkish speech should lift the greenback. The USD/JPY price ended its minor retreat and is now fighting hard to post a meaningful recovery. The pair is trading at 145.81 at the time of writing, far above yesterday’s low of 144.72. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Fundamentally, the greenback seems determined to take full control as the US reported higher inflation in November. The Consumer Price Index registered a 0.1% growth versus the 0.0% growth estimated, while Core CPI announced a 0.3% growth, matching expectations. Today, the Japanese Tankan Manufacturing Index and Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index came in better than expected, but the JPY remains sluggish in the short term. Later, the US will release the PPI, which is expected to report a 0.0% growth after the 0.5% drop in the previous reporting period, and the Core PPI indicator. Still, the week’s most important event is the FOMC rate decision. The Fed is expected to keep the Federal Funds Rate at 5.50%. Still, the FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, and FOMC Press Conference represent high-impact events. A hawkish speech on higher inflation in the US could boost the greenback. Technically, the currency pair rebounded within an up-channel pattern. It has failed to reach the downtrend line. Now it has escaped from this chart formation. The price failed to stay above the 38.2% (146.31) retracement level, signaling exhausted buyers. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Now, it has turned to the upside after registering only a false breakdown with great separation below the 145.00 psychological level. Still, the price could drop again if it stays below the downtrend line. Only taking out this dynamic resistance may announce a larger growth. On the other hand, a broader downside movement could be triggered by a new lower low. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/13/usd-jpy-price-stalls-below-146-0-focus-shifts-on-fomc/

2023-12-13 09:49

Traders are preparing for the conclusion of a Federal Reserve policy meeting. Investors are waiting to see if Powell opposes the idea of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024. The Bank of Canada could be one of the first central banks to ease in 2024. On Wednesday, the USD/CAD forecast leaned towards optimism, fueled by a slight uptick in the dollar. Traders eagerly anticipated the Federal Reserve policy meeting’s conclusion, where clues about the potential timing of interest rate cuts might unfold. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Market expectations point to rates remaining unchanged. Meanwhile, investors are keen to understand the central bank’s economic outlook. Moreover, there are questions about whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell opposes the idea of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024. Recent indicators suggested a soft landing. However, overnight data revealed an unexpected increase in consumer prices for November. Still, traders are factoring in a quarter-point rate cut in May. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has weakened against the US dollar since yesterday due to falling oil prices. Moreover, there is speculation about the Bank of Canada potentially being among the first major central banks to cut rates in the coming months. Notably, the Bank of Canada could be one of the first central banks to ease in 2024. Money markets anticipate the Bank of Canada lowering its benchmark rate, currently at a 22-year high of 5%, as early as April. However, analysts caution that the recent relaxation of financial conditions might hinder the central bank’s ability to control inflation. Additionally, it could delay a shift to rate cuts if it sparks increased activity in the housing market. USD/CAD key events today US core PPI m/m US PPI m/m Fed policy meeting USD/CAD technical forecast: Bulls gear up for another shot at breaking 1.3600 USD/CAD bulls are attempting to break above the 1.3600 key resistance level on the charts. This comes after the price broke above its resistance trendline, signaling weakness in the bearish trend. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the price trades above the 30-SMA, showing that bulls have strengthened. At the same time, the RSI is above 50, in bullish territory. Therefore, the price will likely surpass 1.3600 to retest the 1.3700 key resistance level. However, there is also a chance that the price will retest the 1.3500 key levels before the trend changes to bullish. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/13/usd-cad-forecast-dollar-recovers-ahead-of-fed-rates/

2023-12-13 09:38

UK economic data revealed a 0.3% contraction in October. US consumer prices showed a 3.1% year-on-year increase at the end of November. There was a 7.3% year-on-year increase in British earnings, excluding bonuses. Wednesday witnessed a stronger bearish GBP/USD price analysis, as the British pound took a hit following the revelation of a 0.3% contraction in the UK economy in October. This downturn raises the possibility of the Bank of England contemplating an earlier interest rate cut. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the pound has climbed by approximately 3.8% against the dollar this year, its strongest annual performance since 2019. The surge came from the anticipation that the Bank of England may delay rate cuts compared to other central banks. Meanwhile, Tuesday saw the pound grappling for direction as US inflation slowed in November and British wage growth cooled in October. US consumer prices showed a 3.1% year-on-year increase at the end of November, slightly lower than October’s 3.2%. Still, in the European morning session, the pound dipped following data indicating a 7.3% year-on-year increase in British earnings excluding bonuses for the three months to October, down from 7.8% in September. Meanwhile, analysts had expected a decline to 7.4%. The recent data introduces the possibility of a shift in the stance of the three hawks who voted for a hike in November. Chris Turner from ING noted the risk of them now favoring a hold. Economists and traders anticipate a likely 5.25% interest rate hold. However, they will listen attentively for indications of potential future rate cuts. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce interest rates on Wednesday. GBP/USD key events today US Producer inflation FOMC policy meeting GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears challenge 0.382 fib level The pound is pushing lower after respecting the 30-SMA resistance. The downtrend had paused after the price got to the 0.382 fib level. However, the bearish bias is strong since bears have kept the price below the 30-SMA. Moreover, the RSI has stayed below the 50 mark, supporting bearish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- At the moment, bears are retesting the support at the fib level. Soon, the price will likely break below this and the 1.2501 support level to continue the downtrend. The next support zone is at the 0.618 fib and 1.2401 key levels. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/13/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-dives-as-uk-gdp-contracts/