2023-12-12 10:50
The pair rebounded after failing to take out the lower median line. The median line acts as a magnet. Higher US inflation should lift the greenback. The EUR/USD price is trading at 1.0793 at the time of writing. It looks determined to approach the 1.08 psychological level as the US dollar returns to the downside. After its strong downward movement, the price signaled exhausted sellers even if the US reported better than expected data on Friday. Today, the Euro received a helping hand from the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment, which came in at 23.0 points versus 13.3 points expected, and from the German ZEW Economic Sentiment. The indicator was reported at 12.8 points above 9.6 points estimated. Later, the United States economic data should shake the rate, so the sentiment could change again. The US is to release the inflation figures. The Consumer Price Index may announce a 0.0% growth in the last month, the same as in October. CPI y/y could report a 3.1% growth versus the 3.2% growth in the previous reporting period, while the Core CPI is expected to register a 0.3% growth compared to 0.2% growth in October. Higher than expected inflation boosts the greenback, while lower inflation could punish the USD. From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD price found support on the 50% (1.0733) retracement level, invalidating the breakdown below the lower median line (lml) of the descending pitchfork. Now, it challenges the weekly pivot point of 1.0790 and is almost to hit the 38.2% (1.08) retracement level. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Failing to take out the lower median line (lml) triggered a potential rebound toward the median line (ml). This acts as a magnet and attracts the price. A larger leg higher could be activated by a valid breakout through this obstacle. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/12/eur-usd-price-approaching-1-08-ahead-of-us-cpi/
2023-12-12 09:32
The US inflation data will shape the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. US headline inflation for November is expected to remain flat. The interest rate differential between the UK and the US might widen in the coming year. Traders shifted their attention to upcoming US inflation data and various central bank meetings, leading to a decline in the dollar that guided Tuesday’s bullish GBP/USD price analysis. Notably, the US inflation data will shape the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Headline inflation for November will likely remain flat. At the same time, core inflation will likely hold steady at an annual rate of 4%—well above the Fed’s 2% target. The dollar had been sliding since October’s soft US inflation report. However, it stabilized following positive job data released on Friday. Meanwhile, the pound strengthened against the dollar on Monday as investors prepared for a busy week of data releases and central bank meetings, including Thursday’s Bank of England policy meeting. Most market participants anticipate no change to the current bank rate, which is at a 15-year high of 5.25%. As a result, the focus has shifted to when the BoE might cut the Bank Rate. Stuart Cole, the chief macroeconomist at Equiti Capital, attributed Monday’s rise in the pound in part to the underlying expectation that the interest rate differential between the UK and the US will widen in the coming year. Furthermore, the UK will release GDP data on Wednesday for insights into the country’s economic state. On Monday, Make UK, a manufacturing trade body, reported that Britain’s struggling factories show signs of recovery. This is due to the long-awaited restocking and increased export orders, offering potential support to the sector in the challenging year ahead. GBP/USD key events today US Core CPI month-on-month US CPI month-on-month US CPI year-on-year GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears return as price meets 30-SMA resistance After a strong bullish trend, sentiment has shifted to bearish for GBP/USD. The price is currently making new lows below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI is respecting the pivotal 50 level and staying below in bearish territory. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the new bearish move has paused at a support zone comprising the 0.382 fib retracement and 1.2501 support levels. This has triggered a rebound to the 30-SMA resistance. Given the bearish bias, the price will likely respect the 30-SMA resistance and bounce lower. Meanwhile, a break below the 1.2501 support would allow the price to retest the 1.2401 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/12/gbp-usd-price-analysis-dollar-retreats-ahead-of-major-events/
2023-12-12 09:29
Financial markets were calm ahead of the US consumer price index data. Oil prices increased, but investors remained cautious ahead of US inflation data. Speculators have reduced bearish bets on the Canadian dollar. Embark on Tuesday’s market journey, where the USD/CAD outlook took a bearish turn, driven by the Canadian dollar’s ascent amid surging oil prices. Moreover, investor sentiment was shaped by expectations of the Fed holding steady on interest rates on Wednesday. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Financial markets were calm ahead of the release of US consumer price index data on Tuesday and the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Both events will shape investor confidence in interest rate cuts next year. The US Federal Reserve will likely keep rates unchanged on Wednesday. However, the November Fed minutes revealed lingering concerns among policymakers about stubborn inflation. Therefore, there is room for additional tightening if necessary. Darren Richardson from Richardson International Currency Exchange noted, “Economists expect the Fed to keep rates steady and begin cutting interest rates in early to mid-2024. Moreover, lower interest rates typically boost risk appetite and weaken the USD.” Given Canada’s significant role as a commodities producer, particularly in oil, the Canadian dollar is sensitive to shifts in risk appetite. Meanwhile, oil prices increased on Tuesday. However, investors remained cautious ahead of crucial interest rate decisions and inflation data releases. Moreover, worries about excess supply and slowing demand growth continued to limit potential gains. Elsewhere, data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed speculators reduced bearish bets on the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD key events today US Core Consumer Price Index m/m US Consumer Price Index m/m US Consumer Price Index y/y USD/CAD technical outlook: Price breaks through resistance trendline as bears weaken The pair is trading above its resistance trendline, a sign that bears have weakened, allowing bulls to get the upper hand. However, despite the break above the trendline, bulls are yet to find their footing. The bullish move paused at the 1.3600 key resistance level. Bulls made many attempts to break above this level but failed. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Consequently, the price broke below the 30-SMA, and the RSI returned to bearish territory. The price might retest the trendline and make a double bottom before the bulls take over. However, the bearish trend will continue if the price breaks below the 1.3500 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/12/usd-cad-outlook-struggling-under-1-36-amid-surging-oil-prices/
2023-12-11 12:20
Taking out the 1.26 psychological level activates further growth. Its failure to retest the median line (ml) announced exhausted sellers. The US Consumer Price Index should bring sharp movements. The GBP/USD price turned to the upside, trading at 1.2579 at the time of writing. Surprisingly or not, the pair came back higher after reaching Friday’s low of 1.2502, even though the US reported better-than-expected data. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- The United States Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 199K versus 184K expected, Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.4%, beating the 0.3% growth estimated, Unemployment Rate dropped unexpectedly from 3.9% to 3.7%, while Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment was reported higher at 69.4 points versus 62.0 forecasts. Unfortunately for the USD, the US dollar printed temporary retreats after reaching the 104.21 key upside obstacle. Taking out this obstacle activates further growth and helps the greenback to dominate the currency market. Tomorrow, the fundamental factors should have a major impact. The US is to release the inflation figures. The Consumer Price Index could announce a 0.0% growth in November after a 0.0% growth in October. CPI y/y could report a 3.1% growth, while Core CPI is expected to register a 0.3% growth, compared to the 0.2% growth in the previous reporting period. On the other hand, the UK is to release the Claimant Count Change, Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate data. From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD pair developed a Falling Wedge chart pattern after failing to take out the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork. Its failure to retest this dynamic support announced exhausted sellers. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- As you can see, the price jumped above the downtrend line (pattern’s resistance) and through the upper median line (uml), signaling a new leg higher. Now, it is almost at the weekly pivot point of 1.2590. This stands as a static resistance. Taking out this level and stabilizing above the 1.26 psychological level activates further growth. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/11/gbp-usd-price-recovers-from-us-nfp-led-losses/
2023-12-11 10:10
In November, US employers expanded their payrolls by 199,000 workers. There was an improvement in the US consumer sentiment for December. The US central bank will probably maintain rates within the existing 5.25%-5.50% range. Entering the week, the EUR/USD outlook was bearish, with the euro lingering near the more than three-week low of $1.07235 set on Friday. Meanwhile, the pair experienced a decline on Friday as the dollar surged, fueled by upbeat employment data. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- In November, US employers expanded their payrolls by 199,000 workers, beating economists’ expectations of 180,000. Moreover, the report revealed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to 3.7% from October’s 3.9%. Despite a robust US labor market, traders speculated on Friday that the Federal Reserve could still proceed with a series of interest-rate cuts next year. However, the first reduction could come later than expected, in May. Before Friday’s jobs report, there was a 60% probability rate cuts would start in March. However, the data reduced that to just under 50%, with the first cut now more likely to occur in May. Meanwhile, another report on Friday indicated a more significant-than-anticipated improvement in US consumer sentiment for December. Attention now shifts to US inflation data scheduled for Tuesday, with expectations of a continued easing of consumer prices annually. The Fed will announce its policy decision on Wednesday following a two-day meeting. Notably, the US central bank will probably maintain rates within the existing 5.25%-5.50% range. EUR/USD key events today Traders do not expect big events today from the Eurozone or the US. As a result, the pair might consolidate ahead of the US inflation report. EUR/USD technical outlook: Downtrend pauses at the 1.618 fib extension level On the charts, Euro bulls have returned after bears got rejected below the 1.0750 key support level. However, the bearish bias remains strong as the price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI under 50. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Nevertheless, bulls might soon get stronger. The RSI shows a bullish divergence, a sign that bears have weakened at the 1.0750 key level. Moreover, the price has extended to the 1.618 fib level from the previous swing. This big extension might lead to a deep pullback or reversal. The downtrend will only continue if the 30-SMA resistance holds firm. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/11/eur-usd-outlook-euro-hovers-near-three-week-low/
2023-12-11 08:15
Data revealed an acceleration in US job growth in November. There was a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. There is speculation that the Bank of Japan might be nearing the end of its ultra-low interest rates policy. An optimistic USD/JPY forecast set the tone for a bullish journey, fueled by the dollar’s promising start to the week. All eyes were fixed on the US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s year-end policy meeting. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- The dollar strengthened on Friday after data revealed an acceleration in US job growth in November and a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. Consequently, the report challenged expectations of looming Fed rate cuts in the early months of next year. Moreover, the dollar rebounded against the yen, surpassing 145 yen, reversing some of its significant decline against the Japanese currency from last week. Last week, there was speculation that the Bank of Japan might be nearing the end of its ultra-low interest rates policy. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated Thursday that the central bank would closely assess domestic demand strength and next year’s wage outlook when determining monetary policy. The meeting between Ueda and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was a routine exchange held quarterly. However, it came amid rising market expectations that the BOJ would soon exit years of ultra-low interest rates. Furthermore, on Wednesday, Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino remarked on the potential economic impact of an exit from ultra-loose monetary policy. Inflation has consistently exceeded the BOJ’s 2% target for over a year. As a result, many market participants anticipate the gradual phasing out of the massive stimulus next year. USD/JPY key events today No high-impact events are coming from the US or Japan today. Therefore, traders will keep digesting the NFP report. USD/JPY technical forecast: Strong resistance zone threatens recovery The bias for USD/JPY on the charts is bearish. However, there has been a big recovery from last week’s collapse. The price fell and touched the 142.02 support before rebounding. Moreover, buyers have retraced more than 50% of the recent collapse, and the price is approaching the 30-SMA resistance. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Additionally, there is resistance from the 146.50 key level, the 0.786 fib retracement level, and the decline’s resistance trendline. All these levels form a strong resistance zone that will likely stop the bullish move. Therefore, the downtrend will resume if bears return to this resistance zone. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/11/usd-jpy-forecast-dollar-recovers-ahead-of-inflation-fed/
