2024-03-19 10:45

The RBA held rates but was less hawkish. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock failed to provide clear rate-cut guidance. The dollar was steady ahead of the FOMC meeting that might shape the Fed’s rate cut outlook. The AUD/USD price analysis indicates more downside potential as the pair declines following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting. Notably, the RBA held rates but was less hawkish, noting that inflation had progressed and the economy was slowing down. Consequently, rate-cut bets increased. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- At its last meeting, the RBA had been hawkish, stating there was still a chance of a hike. However, this tone shifted on Tuesday to a more neutral one. Still, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock failed to provide clear rate-cut guidance. The RBA will likely take a cautious stance, assessing data as it comes. Before the meeting, markets had expected the RBA to cut rates by 37 bps in 2024. However, after the meeting, this increased to 43bps. The RBA is working to lower inflation to a target of between 2 and 3%. Meanwhile, the dollar was steady ahead of the FOMC meeting that might shape the Fed’s rate cut outlook. While markets expect the Fed to hold rates, there is speculation that policymakers will take on a less dovish stance. Notably, recent data has shown continued resilience in the US economy with pockets of weakness. At the same time, inflation beat forecasts, leading to a decline in rate-cut bets. Currently, the probability of a cut in June is below 60%. A hawkish Fed at tomorrow’s meeting could push this value below 50%. AUD/USD key events today There are no more key events today that might significantly impact AUD/USD. As a result, traders will keep digesting the outcome of the RBA policy meeting. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bearish breakout signals change in direction On the technical side, AUD/USD has made a significant bearish move, breaking out of its bullish channel. Consequently, the bias is strongly bearish. The price now trades well below the 30-SMA, showing a steep decline. Meanwhile, the RSI shows strong bearish momentum in the oversold region. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- Although the price has broken out of its bullish channel, bears must confirm the breakout before it continues lower. To do this, the price must retest the channel support and bounce lower for a lower low. This would allow bears to retest the 0.6500 and 0.6450 support levels. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/19/aud-usd-price-analysis-aussie-dips-as-rba-alters-tone/

2024-03-19 08:48

The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates on Tuesday for the first time in 17 years. Japan’s central bank intends to continue with easy monetary conditions. Traders are awaiting the FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday. The USD/JPY outlook shines brightly with bullish sentiment, driven by the yen’s decline as investors take profits after the BoJ’s policy shift. Notably, the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates on Tuesday for the first time in 17 years. However, markets had already priced in such a move. Therefore, it was not a surprise. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Moreover, Japan’s central bank intends to continue with easy monetary conditions, which might weigh on the yen. At the same time, the yen remains vulnerable to decisions by the Fed, which usually have a big impact on the currency. Traders are now awaiting the FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday for more clues on the Fed’s rate cut outlook. Recently, the dollar strengthened after data revealed persistently high inflation in the US. Moreover, bets for a June rate cut fell as investors scaled back expectations. Goldman Sachs recently revised its forecast for Fed rate cuts in 2024 from 4 to 3, meaning the Fed will likely hold high rates for longer. Therefore, there is a chance the Fed will be hawkish at the meeting. Such an outcome would further strengthen the dollar and push USD/JPY back to the 152.00 key level. A hawkish Fed could also push expectations for the first rate cut to July. USD/JPY key events today After the BoJ policy meeting, there are no more significant events today. Therefore, investors will keep absorbing the policy shift. USD/JPY technical outlook: Price soars beyond resistance zone On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above a resistance zone comprising the 0.618 Fib and the 149.01 key levels. The breakout shows massive momentum as the price made a solid bullish candle, pushing well above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI entered the overbought region, indicating solid bullish momentum. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- Currently, the price is approaching the 150.75 key resistance level, where it might pause or pull back before continuing higher. A pullback could retest the recently broken resistance zone or the 30-SMA support, where bulls would resume the uptrend. Meanwhile, a break above the 150.75 resistance level would allow the price to retest higher resistance levels. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/19/usd-jpy-outlook-bojs-policy-shift-sends-yen-tumbling/

2024-03-18 16:34

As long as it stays below the downtrend line, the XAU/USD could approach and reach new lows. The fundamentals should move the rate during the week. After such impressive growth, a correction is natural. The gold price rallied in the last hours and now trades at $2,163. The precious metal has dropped slightly in the short term, but the bias remains bullish. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Fundamentally, the XAU/USD turned to the upside as the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Empire State Manufacturing Index came in worse than expected. Today, Chinese industrial production rose 7.0%, beating the expected 5.3% growth. Retail Sales registered only a 5.5% growth, less than the 5.6% growth forecasted. Unemployment Rate jumped unexpectedly from 5.1% to 5.3%, while Fixed Asset Investment came in better than expected. Furthermore, the Eurozone Final CPI and Final Core CPI matched expectations, while the Trade Balance was reported higher at 28.1B above the 14.2B estimated. The BOJ and the RBA are expected to keep the monetary policy tomorrow, but the press conferences should move the markets. In addition, the Canadian Consumer Price Index may announce a 0.6% growth after only a 0.0% growth in the previous reporting period. The FOMC and the UK CPI represent high-impact events on Wednesday that remain pivotal for the gold. Technically, the XAU/USD dropped within a down-channel pattern. It could print a more extensive correction if it stays below the downtrend line. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- The weekly pivot point of $2,165 stands as a static resistance. The price could try to test the resistance levels in the short term. We have a vital confluence area at the intersection between the pivot point and the downtrend line. A valid breakout activates further growth, while false breakouts may announce a new sell-off. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/18/gold-price-calm-near-2160-as-fed-boe-loom/

2024-03-18 10:11

The pound plunged last week due to a drop in Fed rate cut expectations. The Fed will meet on Tuesday and likely keep rates unchanged. The Bank of England will meet on Thursday and likely hold rates at the current 5.2% rate. The GBP/USD outlook reveals a slight bullish tilt as the pound recovers from last week’s decline ahead of major central bank meetings. Notably, the pound is stronger as markets price in a slower shift to rate cuts by the BoE than the Fed. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- However, the pound plunged last week as the dollar strengthened due to a drop in rate cut expectations. As the week began, markets had priced at a 71% chance that the Fed would cut rates in June. However, data in the week showed that inflation was higher than expected. Consequently, traders scaled back rate cut expectations, leaving the chances of a cut in June at 57%. Unfortunately, as Fed rate-cut bets decline, the pound loses its rate-cut outlook edge. Initially, there had been a big gap in the expectations for rate cuts between the US and the UK. Markets had seen more cuts in the US than in the UK, boosting the pound. However, this outlook has gradually shifted, closing that gap. The Fed will meet on Tuesday and likely keep rates unchanged. Meanwhile, the Bank of England will meet on Thursday and likely hold rates at the current 5.2% rate. Notably, a survey on Friday revealed a drop in inflation expectations in the UK for 2024. Therefore, this paves the way for rate cuts in the UK. Still, policymakers might keep a neutral tone at the meeting. GBP/USD key events today It could be a slow day for the pound as there are no high-impact events. Therefore, investors will likely stay on the sidelines ahead of major policy decisions in the week. GBP/USD technical outlook: Bearish bias strengthens below 1.2750 On the technical side, GBP/USD has broken below the 1.2750 key support level to make a lower low, confirming a bearish bias. Moreover, the 30-SMA is now facing down, showing a downtrend. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50 in bearish territory. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- However, recent declines have paused at a bullish trendline, as shown in the chart above. Bears must break below this trendline to confirm the new direction. Otherwise, bulls might return at the trendline support to push the price to new highs above 1.2850. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/18/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-recovers-ahead-of-key-policy-decisions/

2024-03-18 09:10

There is a 39% chance that the BoJ will hike on Tuesday. The Fed will meet on Wednesday and likely hold rates. There is a 57% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in June. The USD/JPY forecast shows a slight upside potential, with the currency steady ahead of central bank meetings in Japan and the US. While the Fed will likely maintain its current rates, all eyes are on the Bank of Japan, with a 39% chance of a hike on Tuesday. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Notably, the dollar strengthened last week due to upbeat economic data that weakened the case for a Fed rate cut in June. This led to a decline in the yen that extended to this week. When last week began, markets had been hopeful that the Fed would cut rates after Powell’s dovish testimony to Congress. However, data during the week revealed higher-than-expected consumer and producer prices, leading to a decline in rate-cut bets. Therefore, investors will focus on the economic projections and the press conference when the Fed meets on Wednesday. Policymakers might sound less dovish after the surprising inflation reports. If this is the case, bets for a cut in June will fall further. Currently, there is a 57% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in June. Meanwhile, the outlook for rate hikes in Japan brightened on Friday. Companies in Japan agreed to big wage increases that will likely pave the way for interest rate hikes. The Bank of Japan will meet on Tuesday, and there is a chance it will hike rates. USD/JPY key events today The pair will likely consolidate ahead of the central bank meetings as there are no key economic releases today. USD/JPY technical forecast: Price confronts strong resistance at the 0.618 Fib On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is trading at a strong resistance zone comprising the 0.618 Fib and 149.01 key levels. Moreover, the bullish bias is strong, with the price well above the 30-SMA and the RSI near the overbought region. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- However, the price might reverse at the strong resistance zone after such a steep move. Still, a pullback would likely retest the 30-SMA support before the bullish move continues higher. If the price breaks above the 0.618 Fib, it might climb to the 150.75 resistance level. On the other hand, bears might return if the price breaks below the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/18/usd-jpy-forecast-holds-ground-ahead-of-boj-fed/

2024-03-16 14:16

Consumer and producer prices rose more than expected. The data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in US retail sales. Investors expect policy decisions in the US and Australia. The AUD/USD weekly forecast is bearish as Fed policymakers might dial down their dovish tones in response to lingering inflationary pressures. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD ended the week down as the dollar strengthened amid signs that US inflation remains high. When the week began, the US released its consumer inflation report. Notably, the figures were higher than expected, leading to a decline in rate cut expectations. Additionally, data on Thursday showed a bigger-than-expected jump in producer prices, raising concerns that high inflation is back. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- Meanwhile, other data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in US retail sales. Moreover, initial jobless claims in the US fell last week. The mixed data increased uncertainty about the Fed’s rate cut outlook. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, investors will focus on policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve. Moreover, Australia will release employment and unemployment figures, showing the state of the labor market. A Reuters poll revealed that the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely maintain rates at Tuesday’s meeting. Notably, at the last meeting, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said there was still a chance of rate hikes. However, markets believe the next move will be a cut. Still, there is no certainty when the RBA will start cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, the Fed will likely hold rates at 5.50% as policymakers continue assessing incoming economic data. However, the press conference after the decision might change the outlook for rate cuts. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears challenge bulls at the 22-SMA On the daily chart, AUD/USD is in a corrective bullish move following a sharp decline. The price is above the 22-SMA with the RSI above 50, showing bulls are in the lead. However, the move up is shallow and confined in a channel. Moreover, the price is reversing after finding resistance at the 0.6651 key level. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- Bears will eventually break below the SMA and the channel support if this is a corrective move. A break below would allow the price to make another impulsive leg to the 0.6301 support level. However, if bulls have gained market control, the price will bounce higher to break above the 0.6651 level and make a new high. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/16/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-fed-to-adjust-tone-amid-high-inflation/