2024-02-28 10:03
Investors were positioning themselves ahead of the core PCE price index. Consumer confidence in the US fell amid fears about the economy’s outlook. Economists expect the core PCE price index to increase by 0.4%. Wednesday’s GBP/USD forecast unveils a bearish outlook, spurred by the dollar’s surge in anticipation of key inflation data. Investors positioned themselves ahead of the core PCE price index, which the Fed closely monitors. On Tuesday, the dollar had pulled back slightly after the US released poor economic data. –Are you interested to learn more about automated forex trading? Check our detailed guide- Notably, consumer confidence in the US fell amid fears about the economy’s outlook. Consumers were concerned about the looming presidential election that could impact the economy. Additionally, another report revealed a decline in orders for core durable goods. Business investment in equipment softened in January. However, investors brushed this weakness aside on Wednesday as they awaited inflation data. Recent figures on US inflation have come in higher than expected, showing persistence. Therefore, there is a high chance this trend will continue. If it does, the core PCE figure might be higher than the expected 0.4%. Consequently, investors would scale back expectations for June’s first Fed rate cut. As a result, the dollar would climb, leading to a decline in GBP/USD. Meanwhile, according to figures from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, speculators have reduced their bullish positions in the pound as they await new catalysts in the market. At the same time, volatility has dropped significantly in the pound in recent weeks. However, the currency has mostly held steady. GBP/USD key events today Preliminary US GDP GBP/USD technical forecast: Price takes a dip after hitting its channel ceiling On the charts, GBP/USD bounces lower after hitting a resistance zone comprising its channel resistance and the 1.2700 critical level. The price is currently trading in a bullish channel. However, after touching the channel resistance, bears have taken over with a break below the 30-SMA. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- Notably, it made a solid bearish impulse leg before the price started trading in the channel. Therefore, there is a chance that the same will happen when it breaks out of its shallow channel. Currently, price action shows strong bearish momentum. Moreover, the RSI supports bearish momentum below 50. Consequently, the decline might continue past channel support to retest the 1.2500 key support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/28/gbp-usd-forecast-sellers-emerge-ahead-of-us-core-pce-data/
2024-02-28 08:43
Australia’s inflation missed forecasts, staying at a two-year low of 3.4% in January. There is a 60% chance that the RBA will cut rates in August. Data on Tuesday revealed a significant drop in US core durable goods orders. Wednesday’s AUD/USD price analysis revealed a bearish tilt, with the Aussie witnessing a decline after releasing softer-than-anticipated inflation data. At the same time, the dollar was weak after poor economic data indicated a slowdown in the US economy. –Are you interested to learn more about automated forex trading? Check our detailed guide- Australia’s inflation missed forecasts, staying at a two-year low of 3.4% in January. Meanwhile, economists had expected the figure to rise to 3.6%. This is good news for the RBA, which has been fighting to tame inflation. Moreover, it raises doubts in the market that the RBA will hike again. Investors are now keen to see the February inflation figures showing the state of services inflation in the country. The RBA pays close attention to services inflation because it has been the toughest to lower. Still, investors are more confident the RBA rate hiking cycle is done. Moreover, there is a 60% chance that the RBA will cut rates in August. Elsewhere, a Reuters poll revealed that there will be a 5.0% increase in Australian home prices in 2024. Meanwhile, the dollar was weaker after data on Tuesday revealed a significant drop in US core durable goods orders in January. Additionally, a separate report showed a decline in consumer confidence. Consumers in the US are worried as the country heads into the election period. The next major report in the US is the core PCE price index. This will show the state of inflation, giving clues on the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Economists expect an increase of 0.4% in the figure. AUD/USD key events today Preliminary US GDP q/q AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bearish sentiment strengthens below 30-SMA On the technical side, the bias for AUD/USD is bearish. There was a recent shift in sentiment to bearish when the price broke below the 30-SMA support. Furthermore, the price confirmed this new direction when it retested the SMA as resistance and made a lower low. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- At the moment, the price is approaching the 0.618 critical Fib level. If this level acts as support, it could lead to a pause in the decline. However, given the solid bearish bias, the price will likely break below to retest the 0.6450 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/28/aud-usd-price-analysis-aussie-slides-on-softer-inflation/
2024-02-19 14:46
Taking out the downtrend line activates larger growth. The Canadian inflation data should have an impact tomorrow. The bias remains bearish as long as it stays below the downtrend line. The EUR/USD price rebounded in the short term as the US dollar entered a corrective phase. The pair is trading at 1.0771 at the time of writing. The bias remains bearish despite the current leg higher. The pair moved down after a rally amid profit-taking. On Friday, the PPI rose by 0.3%, beating the 0.1% growth expected, Core PPI reported a 0.5% growth, exceeding the 0.1% growth forecasted, and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment came in at 79.6 points compared to 80.0 points estimated. –Are you interested to learn more about automated forex trading? Check our detailed guide- Today, the Canadian IPPI came in line with expectations while the RMPI rose by 1.2%, more compared to the 0.7% growth estimated. Tomorrow, the Canadian inflation data should have a big impact on the USD. The CPI is expected to report 0.4% growth. On the other hand, the Eurozone Current Account could drop from 24.6B to 20.3 B. Furthermore, the FOMC Meeting Minutes could change the sentiment on Wednesday, while the manufacturing and services figures should move the price on Thursday. Technically, the EUR/USD price developed a new leg higher after failing to retest the median line (ml), and now it was almost reaching the downtrend line. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- As long as the pair stays below it, the bias remains bearish. Testing it or registering false breakouts may announce a new downside movement. Also, failing to reach this dynamic resistance indicates exhausted buyers. The weekly pivot point of 1.0758 stands as a static support. Taking out the downtrend line validates a larger swing higher. The 1.08 psychological level represents a key upside obstacle as well. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/19/eur-usd-price-showing-exhaustion-signs-under-1-0800/
2024-02-19 10:31
The dollar was weak as markets in the US stayed closed for a holiday. The yen has fallen by about 6% in 2024 due to a decline in US rate cut expectations. Some experts believe that the Fed will fail to achieve a soft landing. Monday’s USD/JPY outlook leaned slightly bearish, with the yen showing a modest recovery from recent lows. Simultaneously, the dollar exhibited weakness, given the closure of US markets for a holiday. –Are you interested to learn more about automated forex trading? Check our detailed guide- However, the pair remains near $150.00 keeping investors on high alert to the possibility of an intervention by Japanese authorities. Officials from the Ministry of Finance in Japan have repeatedly warned against currency declines. Notably, the yen has fallen by about 6% in 2024 due to a decline in US rate cut expectations. Data from the US in recent months has shown a resilient economy. Moreover, inflation data last week came in higher than expected, highlighting the need for high interest rates in the US. As a result, the possible timing for the first Fed rate cut is in June. Additionally, markets expect a smaller cut to interest rates in 2024. However, although inflation remains high in the US, some data points to an economic slowdown. Notably, there was a sharp decline in retail sales and jobless claims have been on the rise. Therefore, some experts believe that the Fed will fail to achieve a soft landing, meaning a possible recession. Meanwhile, in Japan, although markets expect a policy shift, the BoJ has dimmed hopes for aggressive rate hikes. Moreover, the interest rate differentials between Japan and the US have remained wide, leading to the yen’s decline. USD/JPY key events today Investors do not expect any major economic releases from Japan on the US. USD/JPY technical outlook: Bears push for a reversal at the 150.00 support On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is declining after pulling back to retest the recently broken channel support. For a long time, the price has traded in a bullish channel, staying above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- However, bears challenged the bullish trend when the price broke below the channel support. Moreover, the price has retested the level which has held firm as resistance. The last step to confirm a reversal to the downside would be a break below the 150 support level to make a lower low. If this happens, bears will target the 148.50 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/19/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-recovers-as-greenback-retreats/
2024-02-19 08:45
The pound extended gains made on Friday due to upbeat retail sales data. The dollar was weaker as markets in the US closed for the President’s Day holiday. This week, traders will focus on the FOMC meeting minutes and speeches from Fed policymakers. Monday’s GBP/USD forecast showed a bullish outlook, driven by the pound’s continued ascent following Friday’s impressive retail sales data. Meanwhile, the dollar was weaker as markets in the US closed for the President’s Day holiday. –Are you interested to learn more about automated forex trading? Check our detailed guide- Last week, the dollar rallied as inflation data showed the Fed still had more work to do. Consequently, investors now expect interest rate cuts to start in June. Additionally, experts now believe the chances of a soft landing by the Fed have gone down. Therefore, there is a high chance of a recession. This week, traders will focus on the FOMC meeting minutes and speeches from Fed policymakers. These will keep shaping the outlook for monetary policy in the US. Meanwhile, the pound rose on Friday after the UK released an upbeat retail sales report. Still, there was little impact on the outlook for rate cuts in the UK. Investors still see the Bank of England cutting rates by 64bps in 2024. The expectations for rate cuts in the UK remain the lowest among major central banks like the Fed and the ECB. Markets believe the BoE will take its time before cutting rates. Moreover, they will cut by much less than the Fed in 2024. As a result, the pound has remained mostly steady against the dollar this year. GBP/USD key events today It will likely be a slow session for the pair amid a holiday in the US. Moreover, there won’t be any key reports from the US or the UK. GBP/USD technical forecast: Aiming to test resistance On the charts, the pound is trading in a shallow bullish channel, with the price currently approaching the channel resistance. The price trades above the 30-SMA while the RSI sits above 50, making the bias bullish. However, the shallow trend shows that the price might currently be in a corrective move. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the shallow trend comes after a sharp decline, showing there has been a drop in momentum. Therefore, if this is a pause in the decline, the price might reverse at the nearest resistance. At the moment, that could be the resistance zone comprising the channel resistance and the 0.618 Fib level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/19/gbp-usd-forecast-fridays-positive-sales-boosting-pound/
2024-02-17 20:48
The US consumer inflation report beat estimates. Friday’s PPI report confirmed that US inflation was higher than expected. Traders will review meeting minutes from the last ECB and Fed policy meetings. The EUR/USD weekly forecast is slightly bearish, as resilient inflationary pressures in the US will likely keep the dollar strong. Ups and downs of EUR/USD The pair had a slightly bearish close, well above the lows hit during the week. This shows that after declining, the pair rose as the week ended. Notably, the dollar strengthened at the start of the week after the US consumer inflation report beat estimates. –Are you interested to learn more about automated forex trading? Check our detailed guide- Although there was a poor retail sales report, the Friday PPI report confirmed that US inflation was higher than expected. Meanwhile, the Euro strengthened on hawkish remarks from the ECB’s Francois Villeroy. Francois said the sooner the central bank started cutting rates, the better. This way, they can do it gradually. Next week’s key events for EUR/USD Next week, traders will get a chance to review meeting minutes from the last ECB and Fed policy meetings. These will give clues on what these major central banks might do next. In the last week, markets kept adjusting the outlook for monetary policy in the US and the Eurozone amid incoming data and policymaker remarks. In the US, upbeat inflation data led to a drop in rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, in the Eurozone, there were mixed signals. ECB President Lagarde was against early cuts. On the other hand, Francois Villeroy said it would be better to start early and cut rates gradually. EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears pause at 1.0724 support On the technical side, the price has declined and paused at the 1.0724 support level. The bias for EUR/USD on the daily chart is bearish because the price sits below the 22-SMA and the RSI is below 50. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- The last time the price encountered the 1.0724 support, it reversed, breaking above the SMA to make a higher high. Therefore, there is a chance the bias will shift if bullish momentum strengthens at 1.0724. However, the RSI must go above 50 and the price above the SMA for the current move to reverse. Otherwise, bears will breach the 1.0724 support to retest the 1.0501 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/17/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-dollar-soars-amid-stubborn-inflation/
