2024-02-15 08:50
The dollar pulled back from recent highs as investors took profits. The Aussie gained despite a significant drop in Australia’s employment. Australia’s unemployment rate soared to a two-year high. Thursday’s AUD/USD forecast was bullish, with the dollar pulling back from recent highs as investors took profits. Consequently, the Aussie gained despite a significant drop in Australia’s employment. Investors are taking profits on the dollar’s rally after the US inflation report. As a result, major currencies across the board got some relief. However, this might only be a short pause before the uptrend continues. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The upbeat US inflation report led to a change in the outlook for the Fed’s policy. Notably, there was a big drop in rate cut expectations as traders eliminated the chance that the Fed would cut in March. Moreover, the chances of a May cut fell as markets looked to June for the first cut. Currently, there is an 80% likelihood of a June rate cut. Additionally, markets expect three 25-bps cuts in 2024, compared to five similar cuts expected two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the outlook for monetary policy in Australia took a different turn on Thursday after the release of poor employment figures. Employment missed forecasts in January, showing a slowdown in the labor market. At the same time, the unemployment rate soared to a two-year high. For the RBA, this report is a good sign that demand in the labor market is slowing down. Consequently, it raises the chance that the central bank will cut rates. Notably, policymakers said rate hikes were still possible. However, markets believe the RBA’s next move will be a rate cut, especially since the economy is slowing down. AUD/USD key events today US core retail sales m/m US Empire State Manufacturing Index US retail sales m/m US unemployment claims AUD/USD technical forecast: 30-SMA and trendline confluence On the technical side, AUD/USD has pulled back to retest the 30-SMA resistance and the recently broken trendline. At the same time, the RSI has risen to the pivotal 50 level that separates bearish from bullish momentum. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Notably, the price has been on a downtrend and recently made a new low near the 0.6450 key level. Therefore, if bears are still strong, it might reverse at the current resistance zone or slightly higher to retest the 0.6450 support level. A break below this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/15/aud-usd-forecast-profit-taking-in-dollar-after-inflation-led-rally/
2024-02-14 11:20
The flag pattern announced more declines. Taking out the immediate support levels activates more declines. Tomorrow, the US retail sales should have a significant impact. The EUR/USD price slumped again, trading around the 1.0700 psychological level at the time of writing. The greenback dominates the currency market after the US inflation figures beat expectations. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The Consumer Price Index m/m reported a 0.3% growth in January, beating the 0.2% growth in December. CPI y/y came in at 3.1% above the 2.9% forecasted, while the Core CPI surged by 0.4%, exceeding the 0.3% growth estimated. The currency pair dropped like a rock after inflation, ignoring the Eurozone data. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment came in better than expected. Today, the Eurozone Industrial Production rose by 2.6%, even if the traders expected a 0.2% drop, while Flash GDP and Flash Employment Change matched expectations. Tomorrow, the US Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Industrial Production should move the rate. From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD price failed to stay above the 1.0800 psychological level in the last attempt. Now, it has extended its downward movement. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The flag pattern was seen as a bearish continuation formation. Staying on the minor uptrend line announced an imminent breakdown and continuation. It has taken out the 1.0723 historical level and is about to reach the weekly S1 (1.0694) and the major descending pitchfork’s median line (ML). These represent potential downside targets and obstacles, so it remains to see how it reacts around these support levels. Taking out these levels activates more declines. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/14/eur-usd-price-under-selling-pressure-after-upbeat-us-cpi/
2024-02-14 08:54
Annual inflation in the UK maintained at the rate of 4.0%. The US released an upbeat inflation report showing persistent inflation. The possible timing for Fed rate cuts has gradually moved from March to May and now June. Today’s GBP/USD forecast paints a bearish outlook as the currency dips following the news of stable UK inflation figures for January. This brought both surprise and relief to the Bank of England, especially considering economists’ predictions had leaned towards an increase. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, data released Tuesday in the US revealed a rise in inflation. Consequently, there was a decline in rate cut expectations. Annual inflation in the UK maintained at the rate of 4.0%. This figure came as a surprise to economists who had expected an increase of 4.2%. Therefore, it was a relief for the Bank of England, which is looking to cut interest rates. Moreover, it indicates that inflation will likely decline in the coming months. On the other hand, the US released an upbeat inflation report, showing persistent inflation. The annual figure fell. However, the decline was much less than economists had expected. Additionally, the monthly core inflation rose to 0.4%, beating forecasts and showing the economy was still hot. The dollar soared right after the report as investors scaled back bets for rate cuts in the US. The possible timing for Fed rate cuts has gradually moved from March to May and now June. This change came as the US economy continued showing resilience in 2024 despite high interest rates. Moreover, policymakers are not in a hurry to cut rates. The contrast in inflation outcomes in the UK and the US further contributed to the decline in GBP/USD. GBP/USD key events today A speech from BOE Gov Bailey GBP/USD technical forecast: Bears eye 1.2520 support in strong move On the charts, GBP/USD is in a strong bearish move, heading for the 1.2520 support level. Initially, the pair made a solid, impulsive move from the 1.2771 level to the 1.2520 level. Afterward, a corrective move got to the 0.618 Fib retracement level, retracing the previous bearish move. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- At this Fib level, bears made an engulfing candle that signaled the continuation of the previous bearish move. Moreover, the price broke out of its corrective pattern, pushing far below the 30-SMA. However, bears must break below the 1.2520 support to make a new low and confirm a downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/14/gbp-usd-forecast-uk-inflation-steadies-us-inflation-rises/
2024-02-14 08:26
The dollar rallied on upbeat inflation data. Core US inflation rose to 0.4% in January, beating forecasts. The probability of a cut in May has dropped below 50%. Wednesday’s USD/CAD price analysis painted a bullish picture, with the pair lingering near the highs hit on Tuesday. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The surge was fueled by the dollar’s remarkable rally, spurred by upbeat inflation data. Notably, the currency experienced its most significant move in nearly a year. The headline inflation figure fell from 3.4% in December to 3.1% in January, continuing the downtrend. However, this figure was much higher than what economists had expected. Moreover, core inflation rose to 0.4% in January, beating forecasts. As the Fed highlighted at the last policy meeting, the economy is still resilient, particularly in the labor sector. Consequently, the decline in inflation has slowed to a crawl and might not convince policymakers to start cutting interest rates soon. Additionally, markets have eliminated the chances of a cut in March. Meanwhile, the probability of a cut in May has dropped below 50%. The earliest possible time for the first Fed rate cut might be June. The Canadian dollar fell despite a surge in oil prices. Usually, rising oil prices support the currency as Canada is a net oil exporter. However, the rise in the dollar after the inflation report was broad, weakening most major currency pairs. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada is also pushing back on rate cut expectations, saying inflation is still too high. Investors will wait for Canada’s inflation report next Tuesday to get insight into the possible timing for rate cuts in Canada. USD/CAD key events today Traders will keep digesting the US inflation reports and adjusting rate-cut bets as today’s event calendar is free of high-impact releases. USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bullish momentum surges, making a new high On the technical side, the USD/CAD price finally broke above the 30-SMA after consolidating around the 0.5 Fib retracement level. Moreover, such strong bullish momentum pushed the price beyond the 1.3525 resistance. As a result, there is a new high, showing bulls are in control. The price now sits well above the 30-SMA with the RSI near the overbought region, indicating solid bullish momentum. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- However, there might be a pause or a pullback to retest the recently broken 1.3525 level before the price continues rising. If it finds support at 1.3525, it will likely climb to the 1.3600 key resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/14/usd-cad-price-analysis-dollar-surges-amid-hotter-inflation/
2024-02-13 11:16
Taking out the weekly pivot point activates further growth. The median line is seen as a potential target. The US CPI should bring sharp movements today. Gold price rallied on Tuesday even though the Dollar Index showed strength. Now, the metal is trading at $2,026 at the time of writing. Fundamentally, the XAU/USD turned upside ahead of the US inflation figures as the specialists expect lower inflation in January. The Consumer Price Index m/m may announce only a 0.2% growth versus the 0.3% growth in December, while CPI y/y is expected at 2.9%, less compared to 3.4% in the previous reporting period. Furthermore, the Core CPI could report a 0.3% growth again. Lower inflation could help the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate in the upcoming monetary policy meetings. On the contrary, higher inflation should boost the greenback. This scenario may force the yellow metal to drop again. The XAU/USD tries to approach new highs after the Switzerland Consumer Price Index reported only a 0.2% growth in January versus a 0.6% growth estimate. Also, the German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment came in better than expected, but the price changed little as the traders awaited the US data before taking action. Technically, the XAU/USD turned to the upside after failing to close below the $2,012 psychological level. A major demand zone stopped the sell-off. Now, it has passed above the downtrend line, signaling a larger leg higher. It is about to reach the weekly pivot point of $2,027.99, a static resistance. Taking out this obstacle activates more gains ahead. The median line (ml) could attract the price if it stays within the ascending pitchfork’s body. Still, after such impressive growth, the price could try to retest the broken downtrend line before reaching new highs. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/13/gold-price-turns-up-as-traders-await-us-inflation-data/
2024-02-13 10:24
Fed policymakers have emphasized the need for evidence of a sustained downtrend in inflation. A decline in US inflation would lead to a surge in rate-cut expectations. Markets are pricing in an almost 33% chance that the BoJ will hike rates by 10-bps next month. The USD/JPY price analysis showed a bullish landscape on Tuesday as the dollar rose ahead of the US inflation report. Meanwhile, the yen continued its decline after BoJ policymakers pushed back expectations for an aggressive shift in policy. As a result, the pair is quickly approaching $150. The inflation report will show whether high interest rates reduce price growth. Recently, Fed policymakers have emphasized the need for evidence of a sustained downtrend in inflation. A sustained downtrend would mean that when inflation reaches the 2% target, it will stay around that level. The Fed would then be confident enough to cut rates. Therefore, if the report shows a decline in inflation, it would lead to a surge in rate cut expectations. On the other hand, if inflation comes in higher than expected, the Fed would be more reluctant to cut rates. Therefore, the dollar would surge, pushing USD/JPY beyond the 150 level. Meanwhile, the yen has weakened as investors speculate on a looming BoJ policy shift. Policymakers have recently pushed back market expectations that the central bank will implement rapid rate hikes. Moreover, there is a chance that easy monetary conditions will remain. However, Japan’s economy is growing, and demand pushes inflation. Consequently, markets are pricing in an almost 33% chance that the BoJ will hike rates by 10-bps next month. USD/JPY key events today US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bulls make strides toward 150.00 resistance On the technical side, the USD/JPY pair is in a solid bullish trend, with the price consistently making new highs. Moreover, the price has kept above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, supporting a bullish trend. The price recently broke above the 148.51 resistance level and made a new high before pulling back to retest its support trendline. Currently, bulls are making a new leg with targets at the 150.00 resistance level. However, the price action shows that the bulls have weakened. The current swing has much smaller candles compared to previous bullish swings. This indicates that bulls are less enthusiastic about pushing the price higher. Therefore, the price might pause at the 150.00 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/02/13/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-slips-as-focus-shifts-to-us-cpi/
