2023-12-02 17:42
Australia witnessed a greater-than-expected easing of inflation in October. The dollar was weak as data supported expectations for Fed rate cuts. On Tuesday, the RBA will likely maintain its key interest rate at 4.35%. The AUD/USD weekly forecast hints at a somewhat bearish outlook. The Aussie takes a dip as Australia’s easing inflation sets the stage for a more dovish central bank. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of AUD/USD The Aussie ended the week in the red, a decline after downbeat inflation data. Notably, Australia witnessed a greater-than-expected easing of inflation in October. Concurrently, core inflation also experienced a slight downturn. This outcome strengthens the argument for the central bank to maintain interest rates in the upcoming week. Meanwhile, the dollar was weak as data supported expectations for Fed rate cuts. US unemployment claims rose, indicating a softening labor market. Other data showed a decline in US inflation, supporting the call for Fed rate cuts. Investors also listened to a speech from Powell, where he said the central bank would approach interest rates carefully. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely maintain its key interest rate at 4.35%, as per a Reuters poll. Meanwhile, a rate cut will probably not come until the fourth quarter of next year. Ben Picton, a senior strategist at Rabobank, anticipates no change from the RBA in the upcoming week. However, he suggests they will uphold a hawkish stance, emphasizing the likelihood of rate hikes. Moreover, there will be a report on Australia’s GDP that will show whether the economy grew. Finally, investors will focus on the US employment report that will likely impact the Fed’s policy outlook. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls face tough resistance at 0.618 Fibonacci On the technical side, AUD/USD has a bullish bias. The price is climbing higher after breaking above and retesting the 0.6600 key level. Moreover, bulls have confirmed a bullish trend as the price has respected the 22-SMA support and made a higher high and low. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- At the same time, the RSI shows solid bullish momentum near the overbought region. Price action also supports the bullish bias, as bulls make much larger candles than bears. However, bulls face strong resistance as the price has retraced to the 0.618 key fib level. Adding to the resistance is the 0.6700 key level. The bullish trend will continue if bulls break above this resistance zone next week. Moreover, bulls would have a clear path to the next resistance level at 0.6900. However, if the resistance holds firm, the price will likely reverse to 22-SMA or lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/02/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-aussie-dips-amid-downbeat-cpi/
2023-12-01 14:08
The current sideways movement is seen as a bullish formation. The upper median line (uml) stands as an important upside target. The US data should bring high action today. The USD/JPY price is trading at 148.02 at the time of writing and looks overbought in the short term. After the recent rally, the pair may correct lower amid profit-taking. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price edged higher yesterday as the Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, and Unemployment Claims came in better than expected, while Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income, and Personal Spending aligned with expectations. Today, the price retreated a little as the Japanese Unemployment Rate came in at 2.5% versus 2.6% expected, Final Manufacturing PMI was reported higher at 48.3 points versus 48.1 points forecasted, while Capital Spending matched expectations. Later, the US data should move the market. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to jump from 46.7 points to 47.9 points, Final Manufacturing PMI could remain steady at 49.4 points, ISM Manufacturing Prices could jump to 46.1 points, while Construction Spending may announce a 0.4% growth again. In addition, the Fed Chair Powell’s speeches and the US Wards Total Vehicle Sales should have an impact. Technically, the USD/JPY price moves sideways, above the weekly S1 of 147.70, trying to accumulate more bullish energy before jumping higher. The current range could represent an accumulation, a bullish continuation pattern. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Still, only making a new higher high activates more gains ahead. The descending pitchfork’s upper median line represents the next major upside target. This stands as a dynamic resistance. A larger growth could be activated only after taking out this upside obstacle. I believe the upside continuation could be invalidated only if the rate makes a new lower low, if it drops and closes below the S1. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/01/usd-jpy-price-accumulating-bullish-energy-ahead-of-us-ism/
2023-12-01 10:30
Data revealed moderate growth in US consumer spending for October. Investors are awaiting comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday. Data revealed that Eurozone inflation experienced a more significant-than-expected decline. The EUR/USD price analysis unfolds as the dollar dips, allowing the euro to climb slightly after absorbing substantial overnight losses. Traders evaluated data revealing a drop in Eurozone inflation. Consequently, they are buzzing with expectations that interest rates may have reached their end. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the dollar index had its weakest monthly performance in a year in November despite a 0.6% overnight surge. Thursday’s data revealed moderate growth in US consumer spending for October and the smallest annual increase in inflation in over 2-1/2 years. The eagerly anticipated PCE price index rose 3% in October compared to the previous year. It slowed from a three-month streak of 3.4% values. The value is still above the Fed’s 2% target. However, it is a new low that could please the Fed and reduce pressure for additional hikes. Investors will now shift their focus to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday. Traders will scrutinize every word for insights into the rate outlook. Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, anticipates Powell will reaffirm the possibility of further tightening. Moreover, he will likely temper expectations of rate cuts. In Europe, Thursday’s data revealed that Eurozone inflation experienced a more significant-than-expected decline for the third consecutive month in November. As a result, there are expectations of early spring rate cuts. The data resulted in a 0.7% decline in the euro on Thursday. EUR/USD key events today The US ISM manufacturing PMI A speech from Fed Chair Powell EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bears take over after bearish RSI divergence The bearish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart played out, leading to a shift in sentiment for EUR/USD. The bulls were no longer strong enough to continue the uptrend. As a result, bears emerged with bigger candles, showing strong momentum. It was clear the trend had reversed when the price broke below the support trendline and the 30-SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI fell below 50, confirming that bears were stronger than bulls. Currently, the price is heading for the next support level at 1.0851. The final step for bears to confirm a downtrend will be a series of lower lows and highs. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/01/eur-usd-price-analysis-euro-struggling-after-overnight-losses/
2023-12-01 09:34
US consumer spending moderately increased in October. The US PCE price index in October showed a slower 3% rise from a year ago. The Canadian economy contracted at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter. Heading into Friday, the USD/CAD outlook is bearish, riding the waves of continued dollar weakness. This bearish move came after Thursday’s data unveiled a weakening trend in US inflation for October. US consumer spending moderately increased in October. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rise was the smallest in over 2 1/2 years. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the eagerly anticipated personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in October showed a 3% rise from a year ago. It was a slowdown from a three-month streak of 3.4% readings. However, it is still above the Fed’s 2% target. Federal Reserve policymakers indicated on Thursday that the US central bank’s interest rate hikes are likely concluded. Still, they kept the option open for further monetary policy tightening if progress on inflation falters. Market indicators show a 97% likelihood of the Fed maintaining rates in its December meeting. Moreover, there’s a 46% chance of a rate cut in March next year, compared to a 27% chance the previous week. Surprisingly, the Canadian economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, avoiding a recession. However, the data revealed growth weakening before the upcoming interest-rate decision. The economy sidestepped a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions. USD/CAD key events today Canada’s employment change Canada’s unemployment rate US ISM manufacturing PMI Fed Chair Powell’s speech USD/CAD technical outlook: RSI reflects weaker bearish momentum Price action and indicators on the 4-hour chart point to a bearish bias for USD/CAD. Notably, the price has made lower highs and lows, indicating a downtrend. Initially, bears paused at the 1.3550 support level, where the price was oversold. It led to a pullback to the 30-SMA, where bulls challenged the downtrend. However, bearish momentum was still strong, as the price made a bearish engulfing candle from the SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Consequently, the price fell and broke below the 1.3550 support. Still, a closer look at the RSI shows weaker bearish momentum. Although bears made a new low, the RSI made a higher low, indicating a divergence. However, bears will only lose control if the price breaks above the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/01/usd-cad-outlook-bearish-amid-optimistic-canadian-gdp/
2023-11-30 12:58
The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the R2. Taking out the static support opens the door for more declines. The US data should have a major impact today. The gold price is trading in the red at $2,036 at the time of writing. The price turned downside as the US dollar found the bottom and bounced off. The US Prelim GDP, Prelim GDP Price Index, and Prelim Wholesale Inventories came in better than expected. The Dollar Index edges higher as the US economy shows robustness. USD’s further appreciation should force the XAU/USD to drop significantly. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Today, the Chinese Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4 points versus the expected 49.8 points, confirming the contraction. In comparison, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 points from 50.6 points, even if the traders expected a potential growth of 50.9 points. Australia, Japan, and the Eurozone reported mixed data. Still, the traders changed their focus to the United States data. The Core PCE Price Index may report a 0.2% growth, Unemployment Claims could be reported at 219K in the last week, Chicago PMI is expected at 46.0 points, while Pending Home Sales could announce a 1.9% drop. In addition, Personal Spending and Pending Income data will be released as well. Poor economic data could help the XAU/USD to resume its growth. Technically, the XAU/USD found resistance at the ascending pitchfork’s upper median line (uml). Now, it moves sideways in the short term. However, the bias remains bullish if it stays above the weekly R2 of $2,034. This stands as a static support. Testing it and registering only false breakdowns could announce a new bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- On the contrary, taking out the R2 opens the door for a downward movement towards the R1 (2,018) and down to the median line (ml). https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/30/gold-price-pause-rally-by-mid-2000-after-upbeat-us-gdp/
2023-11-30 10:49
US gross domestic product expanded at a 5.2% annualized rate in the last quarter. There is an increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March. German inflation data indicated a slowdown to 2.3% in November. Today’s EUR/USD forecast presents a bearish outlook as the dollar stages a comeback from its three-month lows. This reversal comes on the heels of higher-than-expected growth in the US economy in the third quarter. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- US gross domestic product expanded at a 5.2% annualized rate in the last quarter, exceeding the initially reported 4.9%. Moreover, this marked the fastest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021. Economists had anticipated a growth revision to 5.0%. Following the GDP data, futures showed an increased likelihood of a rate cut starting in March. There is an almost 50% chance of easing, compared to nearly 35% late on Tuesday. The dollar gained against the euro. However, it is set to record its most significant monthly decline since November 2022. This is due to increasing expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2024. Markets eagerly anticipate Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s response to comments made by Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday. Notably, Waller hinted at a possible rate cut in the coming months. Consequently, there was a slide in US bond yields and the dollar. Meanwhile, the euro declined against the dollar after German inflation data on Wednesday indicated a slowdown to 2.3% year-on-year in November from 3% in October. Similarly, inflation in Spain experienced a sharp deceleration. EUR/USD key events today Eurozone CPI US core PCE price index US pending home sales EUR/USD technical forecast: Resistance at 1.1000 prompts pullback The EUR/USD price turned south, breaking the key support of 1.0950. The pair has closed below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs. The next stop for the sellers lies at 1.0860, which was the previous rejection zone and the 100-period SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Alternatively, if the price retraces back above the today’s top, we will assume the resumption of a downtrend after a corrective downside move. However, the probability of the downside seems higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/30/eur-usd-forecast-dollar-recovers-on-robust-us-gdp-growth/
