2025-06-30 12:06

The AUD/USD outlook indicates weak risk appetite ahead of the US payrolls. Traders are pricing a 91.5% chance of a rate cut in September. Australia’s inflation report increased pressure on the RBA to lower borrowing costs. The AUD/USD outlook shows weak risk appetite ahead of this week’s US nonfarm payrolls report. At the same time, the Australian dollar remains subdued after last week’s downbeat inflation figures from Australia. The upcoming US employment report will show the state of the labor market in June, reflecting the impacts of Trump’s tariffs. A softer-than-expected report would raise concerns about the US economy, further hurting risk appetite. However, it would also increase expectations for a Fed rate cut that would weigh on the dollar, allowing the Aussie to climb. On the other hand, an upbeat report would boost the dollar by delaying the timing for rate cuts. Still, the move would be minimal. The Fed is currently more focused on the state of inflation. Already, the economy has proven resilient in the face of tariffs, and this trend is likely to continue. Therefore, Powell is now more concerned about a spike in inflation. The Fed Chair said the central bank will cut rates if inflation remains cool. Traders are pricing a 91.5% chance of a rate cut in September. Meanwhile, inflation in Australia came in at 2.1%, well below the forecast of 2.3%. The downbeat report increased pressure on the RBA to lower borrowing costs. AUD/USD key events today Traders are not anticipating any key releases from Australia or the US today. Therefore, the pair might consolidate ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls. AUD/USD technical outlook: Bulls struggle to keep price above the 30-SMA On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is pulling back after another attempt to break the 0.6550 resistance level. However, the bias remains bullish since the price trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50. Moreover, the pullback from recent peaks shows large bottom wicks, a sign that bulls are rejecting the move lower. If the retreat continues, it might reach the 30-SMA support line before pausing. A surge in bullish momentum would allow bulls to target a break above the 0.6550 resistance and new highs. Such a move would strengthen the bullish bias. However, if the resistance holds firm, bears might take charge by pushing the price below the 30-SMA and the 0.6500 key support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/30/aud-usd-outlook-risk-appetite-falters-ahead-of-us-jobs-report/

2025-06-30 10:33

The USD/CAD forecast indicates a sharp pullback from Friday’s peaks. The pair dropped last week as Trump renewed his attacks on the Fed. US data revealed that inflation rose by 0.2% compared to estimates of 0.1%. The USD/CAD forecast suggests a sharp pullback from Friday’s peaks as focus shifts back to US monetary policy. Initially, the Canadian dollar collapsed after downbeat GDP data, sending USD/CAD higher. However, it pulled back sharply after upbeat US inflation figures eased expectations for a Fed rate cut. The pair dropped last week as Trump renewed his attacks on the Fed. A Wall Street Journal hinted at a likely replacement of Powell by September or October. This is because he has kept delaying rate cuts. The major concern for policymakers is that higher tariffs will lead to increased inflation. High import costs can translate to increased price pressures in the US economy. Such an outcome would require high interest rates. Meanwhile, on Friday, the pair rebounded after data revealed that Canada’s economy contracted by 0.1%. Economists had expected no change. The move later reversed after US data revealed that inflation rose by 0.2% compared to estimates of 0.1%. The report increased the likelihood of further Fed rate cut delays. This week, traders will watch US employment data for more clues on the state of the economy. The report will also influence the outlook for rate cuts. USD/CAD key events today Market participants are not looking forward to any key economic reports from the US or Canada today. Therefore, traders will keep digesting Friday’s releases. USD/CAD technical forecast: Bears aim for 1.3625 after SMA rejection On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is pulling back after failing to break above the 30-SMA resistance line. The bias recently shifted from bullish to bearish after the previous move paused near the 1.3800 key resistance level. Bears took charge by sending the price below the SMA and the RSI under 50. At the same time, USD/CAD started making lower highs and lows, suggesting a new decline. Last week, the move paused near the 1.3625 support level. This allowed the price to bounce back strongly. However, despite the steep pullback, it closed back below the SMA, forming a large wick. This was a sign of rejection. Therefore, this week, bears might aim for new lows below 1.3625. This could mean a retest of the 1.3550 support level. A break below would solidify the bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/30/usd-cad-forecast-retreats-as-us-policy-takes-center-stage/

2025-06-28 13:54

The EUR/USD weekly forecast remains upside, staying above 1.1700. The weaker US dollar lends more support to the euro amid the Fed’s policy outlook and poor economic data. Markets are now eyeing US ADP and NFP data along with the Fed Chair’s speech. The EUR/USD price ended the month with a solid bullish momentum, closing the week slightly off the highs of 1.1754, which is the highest level since September 2021. The pair marked a 2% weekly gain as the dollar saw a sharp deterioration amid geopolitical relief, soft US data, and growing pressure on the Fed to cut the rates. What Happened with EUR/USD Last Week? The week started with intense market jitters as the US attacked three nuclear sites of Iran, which weighed heavily on the Euro and increased the demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. However, the truce came sooner as President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. As a result, oil prices fell, equities and the euro rebounded, while the safe-haven dollar suffered losses. Greenback’s sentiment deteriorated after Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress. He maintained a cautious tone, signaling no rush to cut the rates. However, he acknowledged the impact of tariffs on inflation. These comments provoked President Trump, who publicly criticized the Fed Chair and hinted at replacing him before the end of the year. This raised concerns over the Fed’s credibility, resulting in weighing on the dollar and boosting EUR/USD. On Friday, the US Core PCE Price Index came at 2.7% y/y, briefly above expectations. However, the Q1 GDP showed a 0.5% contraction, and June’s PMI reading edged down to 52.8, indicating slowing momentum. The Durable Goods Orders data remained upbeat, but this was mainly due to one volatile component: aircraft orders. Contrarily, the EU data remained stable with the HCOB PMI at 50.2, reflecting stagnation in activity but not contraction. Expectations around fiscal stimulus plans are providing long-term tailwinds for the euro. EUR/USD Key Events Next Week On the European site, the markets will focus on Germany’s retail sales data, along with HICP inflation data. Moreover, the Eurozone CPI will also be the key data to watch. From the US, key events include ADP employment, JOLTs, ISM PMIs, NFP, and the Fed Chair’s speech. However, the labor market data is more critical, as the Fed is watching cooling signs to plan its easing policy. The ADP is expected to increase, while the NFP is likely to continue its modest decline. Additionally, the unemployment rate may rise slightly. EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Probable Pullback amid Oversold Condition The daily chart for the EUR/USD shows a strong upside trend, with eyes on further gains. However, the price saw a minor pullback on Friday due to profit-taking. The pullback may continue to test the broken resistance around 1.1600. The RSI has reached an oversold region, while the 20-day SMA is too distant from the current price, which may trigger a mean reversion. On the upside, the price may resume the bullish trend after a mild consolidation or pullback. The upside target is located at 1.1800, ahead of 1.2000. Any pullback in the pair seems corrective and appears to be a “buy on the dip” opportunity. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/28/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-buyers-dominate-ahead-of-us-data/

2025-06-28 13:05

The GBP/USD weekly forecast is strongly bullish as the dollar remains broadly weaker amid the Fed’s policy outlook. The easing of geopolitical worries and contraction of US GDP further weighed on the dollar. Next week’s employment data and US PMIs are essential to watch. The British pound soared to its highest level since October 2021 against the US dollar, closing the week with a firm 2% gain above the 1.3700 mark. It was a seventh consecutive daily gain for the pair. The rally was fueled by broader dollar weakness, easing geopolitical worries in the Middle East, and speculations around the Fed’s policy outlook. What Happened to GBP/USD Last Week? The GBP/USD pair started the week with a bearish gap as investors fled to the safe-haven dollar in the wake of America’s attacks on three nuclear sites of Iran. The fear of further escalation after Iran’s warning weighed on the pound and other riskier assets. However, a swift ceasefire restored the peace, and the US dollar collapsed, lending room to the pound buyers. The Fed’s policy outlook also contributed to the dollar’s further decline. Markets are now pricing in a 21% probability for a July cut and75% for the September cut, driven by dovish commentary from the Fed’s Bowman and Waller. However, Fed Chair Powell maintained a cautious tone due to Trump’s tariffs, which may reignite inflation. However, Trump’s criticism of the Fed, accompanied by a threat to replace the chairman as soon as September, created chaos, resulting in a further sell-off of the US dollar. The US economic data also reinforced the dovish narrative. The Q1 GDP showed a contraction of 0.5%, but Durable Goods Orders surprised to the upside. On Friday, the Core PCE Index came in at 2.7% y/y, slightly above the estimate, providing a mild bid to the dollar but not enough to offset the broader bearish momentum. On the UK side, the pound found relative stability due to improved economic sentiment and better business activity. GBP/USD Key Events Next Week There is no significant data from the UK next week. However, the markets will be closely watching the US labor market data and the Fed Chair’s speech. The ADP employment is expected to tick up to 105,000 from the previous 37,000 modestly. But the NFP print may continue its decline to 120k from the last 139k. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate may also slightly rise to 4.3%. In addition to these, US Manufacturing/Services PMIs and JOLTs data are also due next week, which may provide impetus to the market. GBP/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Bulls Pause at 1.3700 The daily chart for the GBP/USD shows a strong bullish momentum, lying well above the key moving averages. However, the price could not hold onto the weekly highs of 1.3770 and corrected downwards. But the 1.3700 continues to support the upside. Meanwhile, the 20-day SMA is at 1.3555, which is almost 150 pips down from the current price. The overextended rally may see some consolidation and reversion to the 20-day SMA before a bullish continuation. The daily RSI is still below the overbought territory, which means further gains cannot be ruled out. The pair may test its weekly top at 1.3770 ahead of 1.3800. The ultimate bullish target lies at 1.4000. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/28/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-bulls-pauses-at-1-37-eyes-on-us-nfp/

2025-06-27 10:25

The EUR/USD forecast is bullish, with eyes on the 1.1800 level as the dollar weakens further. The EU’s optimistic fiscal conditions support the growth outlook, lending further support to the euro. Markets now focus on the US Core PCE Price Index for further impetus. The euro extended its winning streak on Friday, with the EUR/USD pair posting its seventh consecutive daily gain and eyeing the 1.1750 handle, its highest level in around four years. The pair is on course to hit above 2% weekly gain as the bets for the Fed’s rate cut are mounting. A combination of factors, including dovish commentary from within the Fed, Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and dismal US data, has weighed on the greenback, fueling the euro’s bullish trajectory. The US dollar’s recent sell-off stems from the US President’s criticism of the Fed Chair and reportedly his potential replacement by September or October. The move has raised questions about the Fed’s independence, especially when policy decisions are finely balanced due to mixed economic signals. Traders now apprehend a quicker easing, further weakening the US dollar. The ECB and Fed’s divergence continues to play a pivotal role. The Fed is torn between softening growth and inflation risks, while the ECB has a clear path, pausing the easing cycle. The US economic data painted a gloomy growth picture. The US final Q1 GDP data showed a weaker-than-expected 0.5% contraction, compared to an estimated 0.2% decline. Meanwhile, consumer confidence dipped, and the jobless claims fell in the last two of three readings. US durable goods orders surged 16.4%, more than doubling the forecast. However, the increase was driven primarily by one volatile component: aircraft orders. Europe’s fiscal outlook is also optimistic as new defense and infrastructure spending could boost the Eurozone’s growth. On the trade front, EU-UK trade negotiations are progressing slowly. Meanwhile, US trade tariffs continue to threaten the growth outlook. The markets have now turned their focus to the US Core PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation. A modest 0.1% monthly and 2.6% annual prints are expected. A hotter inflation reading may pause the dollar’s decline and limit gains for EUR/USD. However, the broader trend projects a level of 1.1800 to 1.2000. EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Consolidating Gains at 1.1700 The 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD shows a consolidation around the 1.1700 handle, with a clear upside bias. However, the markets are looking for a catalyst to resume their upward momentum. The combination of a 20-period SMA and a support zone around 1.1650 presents strong support. The RSI is near the overbought zone, which may result in mild profit-taking. Alternatively, a move below the 1.1650 level may encounter resistance at 1.1600. However, a deeper retracement may look to test the 1.1450 level, which is the worst-case support for the pair. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/27/eur-usd-forecast-bulls-pause-at-1-1750-ahead-of-us-core-pce/

2025-06-27 07:58

Gold outlook remains fragile amid risk-on flows and dollar recovery. Mixed US data and a cautious Fed may keep the precious metal sidelined. Gold investments are rotating into other precious metals, keeping the yellow metal under pressure. The gold price extended its downward trajectory on Friday as risk sentiment improved, while the US dollar mildly recovered ahead of key inflation data. Spot gold prices fell around 1% to $3,289, posting a fresh 4-week low, and concluding a second consecutive weekly loss. The truce between Iran and Israel stays stable, with businesses and civilians returning to everyday life after two weeks of heightened conflict. The de-escalation has reduced the risk-off flows, as risk appetite has returned to equities and commodity markets. Adding to the bearish tone of gold, the US dollar slightly recovered, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. This comes despite intense selling pressure on the US dollar amid political developments, particularly renewed criticism of the Federal Reserve. According to reports, President Trump may replace Fed Chair Powell by September or October, several months before his term is set to end. Earlier this week, Powell showed a cautious stance during his testimony before Congress. He dismissed the chances of an immediate rate cut but left the door open depending on the inflation and labor data. That said, yesterday’s macroeconomic data sent mixed signals. The Q1 GDP came in at -0.5%, while weekly jobless claims fell, and durable goods orders data revealed the most substantial number in more than a decade, suggesting economic resilience. This data ambiguity has created uncertainty in the markets. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 70% probability of a rate cut in September, but only an 18% probability for July. Gold will likely remain vulnerable until the Fed’s monetary policy becomes clearer. Moreover, some of the gold’s outflows are rotating into other precious metals, such as platinum and palladium, as both hit multi-month highs this week. Meanwhile, silver also outperformed gold, hinting at a broader repositioning within the metals complex. However, traders have become cautious ahead of the key US Core PCE Index data. As the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Core PCE Index remains in the limelight. Inflation is expected to rise 0.1% month-over-month to 2.6% year-over-year. If the data beats estimates, the Fed Chair’s cautious stance will be reinforced, and rate cuts can be delayed, which may boost the dollar. Contrarily, a weaker print may revive speculation of a cut in July. Gold Technical Outlook: Bearish Crossovers Dragging Down The 4-hour chart for gold presents a gloomy picture, as the primary support zone at $3,290-$3,300 has been breached, and sellers are now targeting the next key support level at $3,250. The 50-period and 100-period SMAs formed a crossover that triggered the sell-off, followed by another crossover between the 20-period and 200-period SMAs. If the support at $3,250 fails to hold, the price may further drag down to $3,204. Alternatively, finding buyers at the current level may help the metal regain the $3,300 level and recover further to the $3,330 area, as the RSI approaches oversold territory. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/06/27/gold-outlook-3300-pounced-amid-risk-on-eyes-on-core-pce/